Peter Garforth: The Power of Energy Efficiency - Creating Globally Competitive Communities - June 14, 2012

The Power of Energy Efficiency Creating Globally Competitive Communities Peter Garforth Principal – Garforth International llc Energy Efficiency and Local Economic Opportunity June 14th, Traverse City, MichiganInsatiable Global Appetite for Energy Forecast to double by 2030 Source: IIASA / BP / EIA / Eurostat 1

Growing Energy Uncertainties Unpredictable energy prices Dependence on imports and supply security Impacts of climate change legislation Under-invested energy infrastructure China and India major new energy customers Blackouts, weather events, water shortages.. Regulation of shale gas and oil Nuclear moratorium? –Energy price impacts? Energy innovation? – Competitive advantage? Managing Risk and OpportunityPopulation GDP / Energy GrowthRedefining our World! Non-OECD Countries driving energy demand Source BP 2011 Statistical Review of World Energy 2

Extreme Weather Events  More frequent extremes  Asian Floods  Russian heat storm  EU Deep Freeze  US floods, tornados, droughts  Heat storms / floods  Impacts of rising temperatures  Sea rise 8" to 12" in last 50 years  Changing crop yields  Arctic opening up for exploration  Higher intensity hurricanes  Energy use a suspected contributor  How will this impact energy costs? Climate Change Making Headlines again in USA Energy Cost and Reliability Risks Increasing US Transmission Grid Disturbances Insurance Claims Weather events increasing  2011 may be costliest on record Average 180,000 people /event affected  2008..09..10 costliest three years Unforced events also at historic highs  $30 Bn Private claims in these years Importance of Local Strategies Sources: UD DOE-EIA, US GAO 3

Energy Productivity Differences How well do we spend our $1.5 Trillion? Energy Energy Region Population GDP Energy /Capita /GDP USA 4.5% 23.0% 17.8% 100 100 Canada 0.5% 2.5% 2.1% 107 108 EU 7.4% 30.3% 13.0% 45 56 Japan 1.9% 7.8% 3.9% 53 65 China 19.7% 6.8% 16.1% 21 307 India 17.1% 2.0% 4.9% 7 319 World 100% 100% 100% 22 198 Key to National Competitiveness *IEA and World Bank – 2009 sources Total US Energy Use ~ $1.5 Trillion Most in Urban Environment Coal Homes Buildings 40.4% Gas CommercialDomestic Oil Industry Uranium Industry 31.4%Renewable Transport Transportation 28.1%Imported Oil Largest User is Buildings Source: US DoE EIA - 2008 4

US Electricity Supply Chain Wasted Conversion Energy Coal Losses 70% GasNuclear Sold Renewable Electricity 30% Largest Cause of Greenhouse Gas Source: US DoE EIA 2007Benchmark Efficiencies by SectorUSA / EU Energy Example Sector Share Index USA/EU Industry 32% 1.2 : 1 Homes & Buildings 40% 2.5 : 1 Transportation 29% 1.4 : 1  Homes & Building efficiency opportunity by far the largest  Industrial efficiency potential often overestimated High potential for productivity gains! *Indicative ratio of US average to EU Average 5

Dysfunctional Energy Supply ChainFrom fuel to service Uses 70% of all energy 25% 5%  High-cost low returns  High risk  High emissions Pay 100 for fuel - Get less than 10 in servicesWhy Communities CareNew Energy Realities… Community Values and Image Investment and Green Jobs Unpredictable energy prices Supply quality and security Environmental legislation Weather events Nuclear and coal uncertainties… Fundamentally Different From Past 6

Successful Community Energy PlanningThree Groups of Balanced BenefitsCompetitiveness Security Environment Breakthroughs are AchievableWide Range of Energy PerformanceEmissions per Resident USA - Total USA - "Municipal" EU - Total EU - "Municipal" Holland. MI Loudoun, VA Arlington, VA Guelph, Ontario Mannheim, Germany Copenhagen, Denmark mt CO2 / capita 0 10 20 30 Communities Embracing Challenge 7

Setting Breakthrough GoalsReduction Targets per Resident USA - Total USA - "Municipal" EU - Total EU - "Municipal" Holland. MI Loudoun, VA Arlington, VA Guelph, Ontario Mannheim, Germany Copenhagen, Denmark mt CO2 / capita 0 10 20 30 We know how to get there!Global and Local BenchmarksExample of Copenhagen  Triggered by 70’s energy crisis  3.0 tons / capita GHG  Efficiency  World leading building efficiency  Energy Performance Validation  District Energy  Widespread across city  Fuel flexibility  Multi-fuel cogeneration  Coal, oil, gas, biofuel, waste-to-energy  Wind and solar generation  Transport  Urban design for bike/walking  Efficient trams/trains  City-wide EV plans  High Value Employment 2009 – Voted “Second Most Livable City” 8

City of Holland Energy Use$135 M Annual Cost of Energy Primary Energy / Fuel 2010 9,898,000 MMBtue / 2,900,000 MWhe by type by sector Major Building Efficiency OpportunityCity of Holland Emissions24 mt per Resident 2010 Energy Related Emissions 792,500 metric tons / 873,600 short tons CO2e by type by sector Major Fuel Efficiency Opportunity 9

Holland Community Energy Plan 2011 to 2050 Goals Energy Mission Enhance City attractiveness to investors, businesses and residents through cost effective, reliable clean energy supply  Lower cost energy than neighbouring communities  Highly reliable electricity supply from local sources  Industrial Energy Service tailored to investors’ needs  Flexibility to meet changing technologies, legislation, fuel costs and other market conditions  Meet commitment to the U.S. Conference of Mayors Climate Protection Agreement  Be a leader in developing regional energy productivity strategy Comprehensive Plan with Year on Year Targets Efficiency always comes First! Loading Order / Trias Energetica1. Energy efficiency - If you don’t need it don’t use it2. Heat Recovery – It it’s already there – use it3. Renewable energy – If it makes sense, go carbon free4. Energy distribution – Invest where it makes sense Integrated Approach – Tailored for Community 10

Home & Building Efficiency in Nutshell Benefits  Energy not used is always the cheapest  Energy not used is always the cleanest  Major reduction of energy costs  Economically viable efficiencies of 30% to 60%  Create good local jobs  Sets the stage for deeper community wide energy efficiencies Challenges  Rapidly achieving large enough scale  Readily available and affordable financing  Lifetime Performance validationEnergy Performance LabelingHomes and Buildings  Low-cost performance validation tool  Available when sold or rented  Display in public buildings  Independent certification  Discount financing  Voluntary approaches work fine! Basis for Market Driven Improvement 11

Impact of EfficiencyExample from Arlington County Base Case Crucial First StepHigh Quality EmploymentClean Economy- Ohio  Clean Jobs  105,306  6th in USA  Growth since 2003  16,793 jobs / 2.5% per year  12th / 38th in USA  Share of Total Jobs  2.0%  27th in USA  Median Wage  $39,275  10% higher than average Quality Jobs with Modest Education 12

High Quality EmploymentClean Economy- Michigan  Clean Jobs  76,941  12th in USA  Growth since 2003  -1,596 jobs / -0.3% per year  Last / Last in USA  Share of Total Jobs  1.9%  27th in USA  Median Wage  $40,558  7% higher than average New Opportunity?Four years down the Road….From City of Guelph , Ontario Passed Energy Plan in 2007 by unanimous council vote National Role Model Over 2,000 Green jobs City major influence on regional and national policy Guelph boasts lowest jobless rate in country Thursday, September, 15, 2011 - 10:10:02 AM It may not be an all-time low, but Guelph’s unemployment rate for August came close at 4.7 per cent – the lowest in the country. “…Initiatives such as Guelph’s Community Energy Initiative contribute to the long-term prosperity of the city and make it more appealing to business investment …” 13

A Little City with Big DreamsVäxjö, Sweden  Population: 60,800  Mixed Urban / Rural  Efficiency targets from1980’s  Fossil-free target set in 1996  50% achieved  Integrated Approach  Efficient Homes and Buildings  Community engagement  Flexible District Heating  Cogeneration  Biomass fuel focus  Global-EU-National role model  Tourism and Investment  Global Media and Policy focus Voted Greenest City In Europe in 2007Växjö Energy EmissionsResults to date Current Focus - Transport 14

Grand Traverse CountyNorth American Role Model?  Mixed Urban / Rural  Mixed High and Low-Densities  Pursue breakthrough energy concepts  North American role model for smaller mixed urban/rural communities  Potential for Integrated Approaches  Efficient Homes and Buildings  Community engagement  District Energy  Clean and Renewable supplies  Low-impact Transport  Tourism and Investment  Local value-added and jobs  Magnet for policy focus and support Could GTC have a Big Energy Goal? Thank You Peter Garforth Garforth International llc peter@garforthint.com +1 (419) 578 9613 - Office +1 (419) 320 0664 - Mobile 15

Peter Garforth: The Power of Energy Efficiency - Creating Globally Competitive Communities - June 14, 2012

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Peter Garforth: The Power of Energy Efficiency - Creating Globally Competitive Communities - June 14, 2012 Document Transcript