The Rise, Rise & Fall of News

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Presentation by Sam Duncan-Brown
The Fantastic Tavern - What Matters Now

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  • Hands up who reads a newspaper (incl Metro, etc) Hands up who pays for a newspaper…
  • A brief history of newspapers starting with the evolution from messengers to towncriers to printed newspapers in 16th and 17th Centuries using the recently invented Gutenberg press. Wars had a part to play in feeding the appetite for news (Civil War 1650) and increasing the popularity of newspapers. Industrial revolution in early 19th Century provided the means to mass produce newspapers with the invention of the rotary press.
  • News didn't make huge sums money to start with, newspapers were purchased by middle class entrepreneurs and businessmen largely to help with the political direction of "friends" to gain entry to government In exchange the newspaper owner was bestowed a title, i.e Beaverbrook, Northcliffe, Thomson, Astor (and latterly Lords Barnetson, Matthews, Stevens and Hollick)
  • News became big money when advertising arrived; and it grew further as tabloid journalism and editorial opinion made newspapers hugely popular among a nation with improved reading skills Ad supported news became the common model, creating up to 70-80% of the profits. The higher the circulation, the more advertising revenues would roll in. The value of newspapers hasn’t actually been in NEWS since before the 1930’s. It was about everything else around it: classified advertising (once regarded as the rivers of gold), travel, reviews, jobs, properties, motors,
  • Radio and then TV started to appear and were considered major threats, but co-existed happily enough even though ad spend remained largely the same at 2.5-3% of GDP (as it is now).   Cable and satellite TV and eventually Internet was viewed as a similar threat to that of (the then revolutionary introduction of) radio and TV, but a degree of co-existence was expected as before.
  • We all know what happened next... 4 major shifts happened: organisations started putting their news freely available on the internet as a punt on the future general public started to self-author news/reviews/features and subsequently advertising clients shifted a large proportion of spend to the internet (and TV). Generation Y (1980-2000) is growing up to be influential and cash-rich. They've known fast internet all their lives, are completely on-demand and don't expect to pay for news as a result of content that has been published for free on the internet. They also don't appear to be interested in the detail, picking up on headlines only, i.e. Egypt had its internet switched off!!
  • Newspaper circulations have declined 40% in past 40 years, but the cross-roads was probably much further back than past 10 years, when TV became better quality and provided more choice and convenience. Regional newspapers have been hit even more with 20% lost in just the past 10% years. It just proves to stay near the top of your market you need to be constantly evolving, competing against your own cash cows.
  • 97% of Google's huge $8.5b profit is advertising based (in UK this is about $950m profit on $3.3b revenues). Facebook served 297b adverts in Q3 of last year alone Statistics show that 55% of us trust online reviews and 90% of us trust reviews from people we know - Facebook is tapping into this with 'Sponsored Stories' making online advertising even more compelling   We've reached a cross-roads, where circulations are dwindling along with its aging readers, but also the supporting advertising is migrating to other more populous channels.
  • News is hugely valuable from a societal point of view. Regional publications are declining at a faster rate than anything else, and this is where reporters learn their trade. There will be no cash to support journalism as we know it, so what is the future for news?
  • Turn it into a leisure time activity? Or doesn’t it matter?
  • The Rise, Rise & Fall of News

    1. 1. The Rise, Rise & Fall of News (Any views expressed in this slide deck are not necessarily those of A&N Media)
    2. 2. A Brief History <ul><li>16th and 17th century evolution: from town crier to print </li></ul><ul><li>Wars fed appetite for news </li></ul><ul><li>Industrial revolution provided means to mass produce </li></ul>
    3. 3. Lords and Ladies <ul><li>News didn't make huge sums money to start with </li></ul><ul><li>Owned by middle class businessmen to help political direction of ‘friends’ </li></ul><ul><li>In exchange the owner was bestowed a title, i.e. Beaverbrook, Northcliffe, Thomson, Astor </li></ul>
    4. 4. <ul><li>Sensationalist journalism made newspapers hugely popular among a nation with improved reading skills </li></ul><ul><li>70-80% of profits came from advertising </li></ul>Good Times
    5. 5. The Big Threats <ul><li>Co-existed even with similar ad spend of 2.5-3% of GDP (as it is now) </li></ul><ul><li>Cable and satellite TV and eventually Internet viewed as a similar threats, but a degree of co-existence was expected as before </li></ul>
    6. 6. The Perfect Storm <ul><li>4 major shifts happened: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Organisations made news freely available on internet as a punt on the future </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>General public started to self-author news/reviews/features </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ad spend shifted in ever larger proportions to internet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Generation Y grew up (and they’re influential and have money) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>They've known fast internet all their lives, are completely on-demand and don't expect to pay for news as a result of content that’s been published free . </li></ul>
    7. 7. The Cross-Roads
    8. 8. is evil (and so is Facebook, eBay, Bing, Groupon, Amazon, Yahoo!, Expedia…) <ul><li>97% of Google's $8.5b profit is advertising (UK is about $1b) </li></ul><ul><li>Statistics show that 55% of us trust online reviews and 90% of us trust reviews from people we know - Facebook 'Sponsored Stories‘ </li></ul><ul><li>served 297,000,000,000 adverts in Q3 of last year </li></ul><ul><li>Circulations dwindling along with aging readers, and advertising is migrating to other more populous channels </li></ul>
    9. 9. So what is the future for news? There will be no cash to support journalism as we know it…
    10. 10. <ul><li>iPad ( The Daily )? </li></ul><ul><li>Well visited news sites ( Mail Online and New York Times )? </li></ul><ul><li>Paywalls ( The Times and FT )? </li></ul><ul><li>Free and easy ( The Metro )? </li></ul><ul><li>Content supported by AdWords revenue? </li></ul><ul><li>Something else??? </li></ul>Is the Future for News… @samdb

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