IRENA’s Power Generation Cost Analysis and Geothermal Power
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IRENA’s Power Generation Cost Analysis and Geothermal Power

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Presentation to the Webinar: Geothermal: Competing With Other Renewable And Non-Renewable Technologies Webinar, 19 November 2013 ...

Presentation to the Webinar: Geothermal: Competing With Other Renewable And Non-Renewable Technologies Webinar, 19 November 2013

How does geothermal's competiveness and costs compare to other renewable power generation technologies, such as wind and solar PV? What makes geothermal's cost structure and policy needs to different to other renewable power generation? This presentation gives an introduction to these questions and the answers.

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  • IRENA Members - 99Fiji, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau, Samoa, Tonga.IRENA Signatories/applicants for membership - 60Kiribati, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Vanuatu

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  • 1. IRENA’s Power Generation Cost Analysis and Geothermal Geothermal: Competing With Other Renewable And Non-Renewable Technologies Webinar, 19 November 2013 Michael Taylor mtaylor@irena.org IRENA Innovation and Technology Centre 19 November 2013
  • 2. About IRENA Members of the Agency Signatories/States in Accession As of October, 2013 2
  • 3. COST ANALYSIS…. WHY? HOW? WITH WHOM? 3
  • 4. Rationale and goals • Renewable energy can meet policy goals for secure, reliable and affordable energy and access. • Lack of objective and up-to-date data is a barrier • Decision making based on: outdated numbers, opinion • IRENA to strive to become THE source for cost data • Goals:  Assist government decision-making, allow more ambitious policies  Fill a significant information gap • Coverage:  Power generation (June 2012 and January 2013)  Road Transport (July 2013)  Stationary applications (2014) 4
  • 5. RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION 2012 5
  • 6. Key findings • Renewables now THE economic solution off-grid and for mini-grids, increasingly competitive for grid supply • A shift in policy focus will need to come • Dramatic price reductions for Solar PV. Onshore wind competitive at best sites, CSP has great potential. Hydropower, geothermal and biomass more mature • Equipment cost declines and technology improvements LCOEs are falling • Data collection poses challenges • Why isn’t data systematically collected from support policies? 6
  • 7. LCOE ranges and averages 7
  • 8. Levelised cost of electricity by country/region Note: assumes a 10% cost of capital 8
  • 9. Geothermal: Installed costs have been rising Source: IPCC, 2011 © IRENA 2013 9
  • 10. Total installed costs of geothermal projects in Chile, Indonesia, Kenya, Mexico and the Philippines Ex ante data, but what about ex post? © IRENA 2013 10
  • 11. Geothermal competiveness • Well defined resources of high quality can deliver highly competitive electricity • Capital costs have been rising with commodity prices and engineering costs • Risk profile is very different to other renewable technologies • Many factors at play in determining the costs of a project • Dedicated policy framework is essential to ensuring geothermal projects not disadvantaged 11
  • 12. PLANS FOR THE IRENA RENEWABLE COSTING ALLIANCE 12
  • 13. Rationale and Plans • Analysis to date has been based on low hanging fruit • Engage with business: The Alliance will work at a technical level on data and its availability • Alliance members share, confidentially, their data on real world project costs • Entirely voluntary, we work together for mutual benefit • Establishment period now, offical launch at Assembly • Goals:  more data, better data, a greater focus on analysis of data 13
  • 14. Structure Member countries: Steering group for costing analysis focus One workshop a year Must nominate institution to deliver data Quarterly newsletter Alliance Members: Provide data, confidentially One workshop a year Ability to query the database in detail Quarterly newsletter Observers: Quarterly newsletter Mailing list for new publications/analysis 14
  • 15. Renewables are increasingly competitive, but more needs to be done to fulfill their potential… IRENA is part of the solution 15