IRENA’s Power Generation Cost
Analysis and
Support for Renewables

Michael Taylor
mtaylor@irena.org
IRENA Innovation and T...
About IRENA

Members of the Agency
Signatories/States in Accession
As of October, 2013

2
COSTING….
WHY?
HOW?
WITH WHOM?
3
Rationale and goals
• Renewable energy can meet policy goals for secure,

reliable and affordable energy and access.
• Lac...
RENEWABLE POWER
GENERATION 2012

5
Key findings
• Renewables now THE economic solution off-grid and for
mini-grids, increasingly competitive for grid supply
...
LCOE ranges and averages

7
Levelised cost of electricity
by country/region

Note: assumes a 10% cost of capital

8
Hydropower
• Mature technology, flexibility in design in many cases
• Lowest cost electricity of any source in many cases
...
TOO MUCH OF A GOOD
THING……

10
The LCOE of wind

Higher
capacity
factors from
improved
technology

Wind
turbine
cost
reductions

© IRENA
2013 11
PV modules prices

12
Learning rates for PV modules

2013

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, February, 2011 and IRENA

13
An emerging/persistent issue:
Balance of system costs?

Cost reduction pass-through will be strongly tied to success in re...
Diagnosis for support policies
•

The patient is very healthy
Technology improvements, capital costs reducing ->

LCOEs fa...
PLANS FOR
THE
IRENA RENEWABLE
COSTING ALLIANCE
16
Rationale and Plans
• Analysis to date has been based on low hanging fruit

• Engage with business: The Alliance will work...
Structure

Member countries:
Steering group for costing analysis focus
One workshop a year
Must nominate institution to de...
Renewables are increasingly
competitive, but more needs to
be done to fulfill their potential…

IRENA is part of the solut...
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Power Generation Costs and Support for Renewables

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IRENA presentation to the International Feed-in Co-operation workshop in Brussels, October 24th 2013. The focus is on IRENA's analysis of renewable power generation costs of over 8000 utility-scale renewable power generation projects and the implications for support policies for renewables.

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  • IRENA Members - 99Fiji, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau, Samoa, Tonga.IRENA Signatories/applicants for membership - 60Kiribati, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Vanuatu
  • Power Generation Costs and Support for Renewables

    1. 1. IRENA’s Power Generation Cost Analysis and Support for Renewables Michael Taylor mtaylor@irena.org IRENA Innovation and Technology Centre 24 October 2013
    2. 2. About IRENA Members of the Agency Signatories/States in Accession As of October, 2013 2
    3. 3. COSTING…. WHY? HOW? WITH WHOM? 3
    4. 4. Rationale and goals • Renewable energy can meet policy goals for secure, reliable and affordable energy and access. • Lack of objective and up-to-date data is a barrier • Decision making based on: outdated numbers, opinion • IRENA to strive to become THE source for cost data • Goals:  Assist government decision-making, allow more ambitious policies  Fill a significant information gap • Coverage:  Power generation (June 2012 and January 2013)  Road Transport (July 2013)  Stationary applications (2014) 4
    5. 5. RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION 2012 5
    6. 6. Key findings • Renewables now THE economic solution off-grid and for mini-grids, increasingly competitive for grid supply • A shift in policy focus will need to come • Dramatic price reductions for Solar PV. Onshore wind competitive at best sites, CSP has great potential. Hydropower, geothermal and biomass more mature • Equipment cost declines and technology improvements LCOEs are falling • Data collection poses challenges • Why isn’t data systematically collected from support policies? 6
    7. 7. LCOE ranges and averages 7
    8. 8. Levelised cost of electricity by country/region Note: assumes a 10% cost of capital 8
    9. 9. Hydropower • Mature technology, flexibility in design in many cases • Lowest cost electricity of any source in many cases • Importance will grow with penetration of variable RE 9
    10. 10. TOO MUCH OF A GOOD THING…… 10
    11. 11. The LCOE of wind Higher capacity factors from improved technology Wind turbine cost reductions © IRENA 2013 11
    12. 12. PV modules prices 12
    13. 13. Learning rates for PV modules 2013 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, February, 2011 and IRENA 13
    14. 14. An emerging/persistent issue: Balance of system costs? Cost reduction pass-through will be strongly tied to success in reducing BoS costs 14 Source: Seel, Barbose and Wiser, 2012
    15. 15. Diagnosis for support policies • The patient is very healthy Technology improvements, capital costs reducing -> LCOEs falling • But growing pains may be experienced Rapid growth can lead to significant supply/demand imbalances • Suggested treatment is very patient specific Trade-offs involved, depends on market, technology and scale • Preventative measures can be highly effective Future proofing policies is challenging, but necessary • Further basic research required A lot of data exists, but it is typically not collected, IRENA to change this 15
    16. 16. PLANS FOR THE IRENA RENEWABLE COSTING ALLIANCE 16
    17. 17. Rationale and Plans • Analysis to date has been based on low hanging fruit • Engage with business: The Alliance will work at a technical level on data and its availability • Alliance members share, confidentially, their data on real world project costs • Entirely voluntary, we work together for mutual benefit • Establishment period now, offical launch at Assembly • Goals:  more data, better data, a greater focus on analysis of data 17
    18. 18. Structure Member countries: Steering group for costing analysis focus One workshop a year Must nominate institution to deliver data Quarterly newsletter Alliance Members: Provide data, confidentially One workshop a year Ability to query the database in detail Quarterly newsletter Observers: Quarterly newsletter Mailing list for new publications/analysis 18
    19. 19. Renewables are increasingly competitive, but more needs to be done to fulfill their potential… IRENA is part of the solution 19

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