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Solar PV a major electricity source - An IRENA View

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Presentation by IRENA to the EU PVSEC parallel event "PV - A Major Electricity Source" on October 3rd. …

Presentation by IRENA to the EU PVSEC parallel event "PV - A Major Electricity Source" on October 3rd.

Focus on cost reductions and challenges and opportunities that are emerging for PV.

http://www.photovoltaic-conference.com/parallel-events/pvamajorelectricitysource2013.html

Published in: Technology, Business
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Transcript

  • 1. IRENA’s Power Generation Costing Analysis: PV in Focus July 2013 Michael Taylor mtaylor@irena.org IRENA Innovation and Technology Centre
  • 2. COSTING…. WHY? HOW? WITH WHOM? 2
  • 3. Rationale and goals • Renewable energy can meet policy goals for secure, reliable and affordable energy and access. • Lack of objective and up-to-date data is a barrier • Decision making based on: outdated numbers, opinion • IRENA to strive to become THE source for cost data • Goals:  Assist government decision-making, allow more ambitious policies  Fill a significant information gap • Coverage:  Power generation (June 2012 and January 2013)  Road Transport (July 2013)  Stationary applications (2014) 3
  • 4. Framework 4 Where to set the boundaries? How to get data? Are costs even available? Prices, or price indicators? Levelised cost of electricity (LCOE)
  • 5. RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION 2012 5
  • 6. Key findings 6 • Renewables now THE economic solution off-grid and for mini-grids, increasingly competitive for grid supply • A shift in policy focus will need to come • Dramatic price reductions for Solar PV. Onshore wind competitive at best sites, CSP has great potential. Hydropower, geothermal and biomass more mature • Equipment cost declines and technology improvements LCOEs are falling • A convergence in LCOEs • Data collection poses challenges
  • 7. LCOE ranges and averages 7
  • 8. Levelised cost of electricity by country/region 8Note: assumes a 10% cost of capital
  • 9. The LCOE of wind © IRENA 2013 9 Higher capacity factors from improved technology Wind turbine cost reductions
  • 10. Hydropower • Mature technology, flexibility in design in many cases • Lowest cost electricity of any source in many cases • Importance will grow with penetration of variable RE 10
  • 11. SOLAR PV: 11
  • 12. Introduction • Solar PV is democratising not only electricity but also renewables • Huge potential economic, environmental and social dividends for developing countries in the sun belt • Solar PV module prices have fallen rapidly, but much more stable in 2013 • Grid parity for residential customers will become increasingly the norm in Europe, but… • Globally a very narrow market, deployment is not typically where the sun is….much work needs to be done 12
  • 13. PV modules prices 13
  • 14. Learning rates for PV modules 14 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, February, 2011 2013
  • 15. Non-OECD installed costs for PV (utility-scale) 15
  • 16. Solar PV installed costs 16
  • 17. An emerging/persistent issue: Balance of system costs? 17 Cost reduction pass-through will be strongly tied to success in reducing BoS costs Source: Seel, Barbose and Wiser, 2012
  • 18. So what does all this mean? 18 REMAP: doubling the share of renewables by 2030 • Power sector has the lowest costs • Solar PV is an important part of the solution …and is set to become a major source of electricity
  • 19. PLANS FOR THE IRENA RENEWABLE COSTING ALLIANCE AND FUTURE WORK ON PV19
  • 20. Rationale and Plans • Analysis to date has been based on low hanging fruit • Engage with business: The Alliance will work at a technical level on data and its availability • Alliance members share, confidentially, their data on real world project costs • Entirely voluntary, we work together for mutual benefit • Establishment period now, offical launch at Assembly • Goals:  more data, better data, a greater focus on analysis of data 20
  • 21. Structure Member countries: Steering group for costing analysis focus One workshop a year Must nominate institution to deliver data Quarterly newsletter Alliance Members: Provide data, confidentially One workshop a year Ability to query the database in detail Quarterly newsletter Observers: Quarterly newsletter Mailing list for new publications/analysis 21
  • 22. Predicting solar flares… or at least IRENA’s plans for PV • PV Parity Indicators • Economic opportunities mapping with the IRENA Global Atlas • In-depth analysis of emerging market costs and market development 22
  • 23. Renewables are increasingly competitive, but more needs to be done to fulfill their potential… 23 IRENA is part of the solution

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