Public to Private--Opportunities in the New U.S. Fiscal Environment

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  • 1. From Public to Private: Opportunities in the New U.S. Fiscal Environment MSF Enterprises, LLC Introduction Given all of the moving pieces in the fiscal cliff saga, the full implications for the U.S. business environment may not be clear to investors. While a great deal of the discussion INSIDE STORY: focuses on the negative impacts tax and budget adjustments will have on growth and consumer spending, little attention has been given to the opportunities that will emerge as Tax Implications p.1 a result of the new fiscal environment. We seek to explore this topic, providing investors Business Investment p.2 with a road map to help navigate the U.S. fiscal landscape and take advantage of the most attractive investment opportunities available. Manufacturing p.3 Energy p.4 “The ladder of success is best climbed by stepping on the rungs of opportunity.” —Ayn Rand Spending p.4 Defense p.5 “Every action has an opposite and equal reaction unless acted upon by an outside Healthcare p.7 force.” —Isaac Newton’s 3 Law of Thermo Dynamics rd Agriculture p.9 Conclusion p.10 Exhibit 1: U.S. Federal Government Revenue, Spending and Debt (% of GDP) Source: Office of Management and Budget, Congressional Budget Office, The Economist February 2013 “As you make your bed, so you must lie in it.” Denver ● New York —Daniel BoorstinMSF Enterprises, LLC www.msfenterprises.com Copyright © 2013
  • 2. February 2013 Spotlight From Public to Private: Opportunities in the New U.S. Fiscal Environment 1 Tax Implications In an effort to avert a free fall off the proverbial fiscal cliff, U.S. lawmakers reached a last minute accord through the American Taxpayer Relief Act to prevent the full array of Bush- era tax cuts from expiring. While across-the-board tax increases were avoided, the combined expiration of the payroll tax holiday and tax rate increases for top earners should have noticeable effects on the U.S. economy and business climate. Exhibit 2: Individual Income Tax Rates for 2013 “Politics is the art of choosing between the disastrous and the unpalatable.” —John Kenneth Galbraith Source: Department of the Treasury, IRS The decision not to extend the payroll tax cut will have arguably the greatest impact on economic growth, as it will effectively raise taxes for all U.S. workers. With the “The good news is that, expiration of the payroll tax holiday, the majority of U.S. households will be faced with according to the the highest tax burden since 20081. According to JP Morgan, the move should generate Obama administration, an additional $125 billion in tax revenue and may lead to a $100 billion reduction in the rich will pay for overall consumer spending2. This could create opportunities for discount retailers and everything. The bad value stores, which may experience heightened demand as consumers seek to stretch a news is that, according tighter budget as far as possible. With the government no longer augmenting to the Obama discretionary income levels through reduced payroll taxes, some consumers may have to administration, you’re turn to private lenders in the specialty finance space to make up the difference. As a rich.” result, alternative lenders such as payday loan providers could see greater demand in the —P.J. O’Rourke new fiscal environment. (For more information on this topic, see the MSF Enterprises December 2012 Spotlight piece titled “Filling the Gap: Opportunities in Specialty Finance” at http://www.msfenterprises.com/pdf/MSF_Q4_Spotlight- Specialty_Finance.pdf) The top 5% of wealthy Americans own over 80% of individually-held stocks3, so increased tax rates on capital gains and dividends could have major consequences in regard to market positioning and the expected performance of various investment vehicles. With higher tax rates, investors will place a greater emphasis on after-tax returns for both growth and income strategies. Increased taxes may also drive investors toward tax-deferred investment vehicles (i.e. retirement accounts and annuities) which allow investors to defer taxes until withdrawals are made, with the assumption that tax rates will be lower in the future. Other investments that have an extended holding period and do not make distributions, such as non-dividend paying growth stocks or real assets, could receiveMSF Enterprises, LLC www.msfenterprises.com Copyright © 2013
  • 3. February 2013 Spotlight From Public to Private: Opportunities in the New U.S. Fiscal Environment 2 greater attention from high net worth investors. Similarly, alternative investments that focus on long-term growth and carry a lock-up period, such as private equity funds, could also see higher levels of capital inflows. Exhibit 3: Estimated Effect of Tax Increases on Annualized Consumption Growth Source: Goldman Sachs Global Research, Zero Hedge “An investment in With taxes reducing consumer budgets, businesses will continue to adjust investment knowledge pays the levels and operating costs in order to compensate for lower expected demand. At the best interest.” same time, firms may look to take advantage of certain aspects of the current economic —Benjamin Franklin environment (i.e. low interest rates) and better position themselves for the future through capital investments. Even though the average age of manufacturing plants and equipment in the U.S. is already at multi-decade highs4, capex levels have struggled to rebound since the recession. While a great deal of fiscal uncertainty remains, companies will likely seek to increase efficiency in any way possible and will have to make investments in order to do so. The availability of low-cost debt should be a supporting factor for greater business investment, as firms will continue to lock-in cheap capital before interest rates rise. With U.S. companies already maintaining cash reserves near all-time highs, there should be a greater push from shareholders for firms to start deploying excess capital previously parked on the sidelines. Revenue and earnings weakness in recent quarters should further push companies to utilize their dormant cash, as consumer sentiment is unlikely to offer much in terms of organic growth. As a result, an uptick in M&A activity can be expected in some industries once valuations decline to more reasonable levels. New purchases of PP&E could also pick up, as firms look to replace outdated equipment with more efficient systems while debt is relatively inexpensive. Tax incentives provide further support for the purchase or lease of software and equipment, as the renewal of Section 179 of the tax code will enable firms to offset a portion of their tax liability with investment in the business5. The Research and Development tax credit was also extended with the fiscal cliff deal, which may encourage higher levels of R&D as firms continue to receive a credit for up to 14% of related expenditures6. Business efforts to maximize efficiency could ultimately benefit firms in the technology sector, which provide tools firms use to shape their businesses into leaner operating machines. Capital investments in technology can be expected across industries, as many firms will look to boost performance through greater efficiency in terms of cost,MSF Enterprises, LLC www.msfenterprises.com Copyright © 2013
  • 4. February 2013 Spotlight From Public to Private: Opportunities in the New U.S. Fiscal Environment 3 connectivity and data collaboration. Furthermore, there will likely be a paradigm shift where firms look to replace labor with technology, systems integration and outsourcing. The changing environment should be a positive driving force for business-to-business technology firms, which can be critical in corporate efforts to trim fat from operations. Corporate efforts to improve efficiency may also lead firms to examine the location of their operations and reevaluate the optimal structure of their distribution channels. Companies will continue looking to move to areas where there is a balance between achieving a low cost of operations and being within close proximity to customers and distributors. Over the past several years, the U.S. has slowly become more appealing as a production hub relative to other countries like China. The U.S. once produced nearly 40% of the world’s goods following WWII, yet the mass exodus of manufacturing jobs to China has reduced that number to only 18%7. However, a number of recent developments in the global economy may reverse the trend by encouraging firms to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S., as well as Mexico. Wages and benefits were once substantially lower overseas, but they have remained stagnant over the past few years in the U.S. while rising 15-20% annually in China8. The cost of industrial land has also become more relevant, as the average cost in China is $10.22 per square foot and can be as high as $21 in cities like Shenzhen; meanwhile, industrial land in “Not only the wealth, areas like Tennessee and North Carolina ranges from $1.30 to $4.65 per square foot9. but the independence With the combination of these factors, the total cost of production in the U.S. should be and security of a within 10-15% of Chinese coastal cities in the next five years10. The situation is further Country, appear to be compounded by the rising value of the yuan against the dollar, as well as the cost of materially connected transporting finished goods from China back to the U.S. As a result, companies may with the prosperity of look to move a greater portion of manufacturing production to the U.S., with the Boston manufactures.” Consulting Group estimating that 2.5 to 5 million manufacturing positions will be —Alexander Hamilton added in the country by 202011. Exhibit 4: U.S. Manufacturers Showing Signs of Relative Strength Source: ISI Within the U.S., the battle between individual states and municipalities to attract large companies may accelerate due to expectations of job losses. Tax incentives and subsidies could be used to an even greater extent at the bargaining table, as local politicians seek to appeal to voters by creating more job opportunities. States, counties and cities already pay more than $80 billion in incentives each year to companies that agree to place a facility within their boundaries12. With new rounds of job losses likely on the way due to spending cuts and tax increases, the bidding war between states toMSF Enterprises, LLC www.msfenterprises.com Copyright © 2013
  • 5. February 2013 Spotlight From Public to Private: Opportunities in the New U.S. Fiscal Environment 4 attract large employers will continue to heat up. As firms look to cut costs and boost earnings by any means possible, a number of companies could begin evaluating domestic options for relocation. The top recipients of location incentives are in the manufacturing sector, followed by agriculture, oil and gas, mining, films and technology13. Firms in these industries that are looking to relocate headquarters and production facilities could receive an economic boost if they are able to score lucrative deals with local governments. Firms that provide job training and employee placement services could begin to receive greater attention in the new fiscal environment, with companies widely expected to cut jobs and reduce hiring levels. This concept could also play a key role as entitlement spending is addressed, as welfare-to-work programs could see increased interest with the government looking to rein in its finances. Government programs that support small “We have all the business could also become a greater focus if a more conservative approach to fiscal resources we need right policy is adopted. Disruption in one segment of the economy can lead to innovation in here in this country to another, so job losses in some industries could encourage more individuals to start new establish energy businesses. If a greater entrepreneurial spirit emerges from the new fiscal independence…” environment, there may be increased opportunities for investing in SBIC funds and —Herman Cain SBA specialists. The U.S. energy sector could also be critical in reshaping the employment landscape by absorbing job losses from other industries heavily affected by tax adjustments and spending cuts. Many analysts project energy production to be one of the primary drivers of growth for the U.S. over the next several decades, as the country is expected to “At no point in history become energy self-sufficient by 2020 and a net exporter by 202514. In order for this to have so many non-risk occur, a number of jobs must be added to the energy sector to build out infrastructure takers, that is, those and operate production facilities, with up to 1 million positions expected to be added by with no personal 201415. With 2.8 million federal government employees16 and several million others in exposure, exerted so industries that rely on government funding, growth sectors like energy could provide much control.” some of the necessary support to maintain U.S. employment levels. Job losses in other —Nassim Nicholas segments of the economy may actually provide the catalyst to push energy production Taleb in the U.S. to its full potential. Exhibit 5: Energy Production and Imports in the U.S. “If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in five years Source: ISI there’d be a shortage of sand.” —Milton Friedman Government Spending The U.S. government has run a fiscal deficit of over $1 trillion for each of the past four years and the national debt is now well over $16 trillion. As debt and deficit levels have become increasingly scrutinized, American politicians have found themselves forced, inMSF Enterprises, LLC www.msfenterprises.com Copyright © 2013
  • 6. February 2013 Spotlight From Public to Private: Opportunities in the New U.S. Fiscal Environment 5 some ways, to address the country’s massive spending issues. While efforts made up to this point have found little success, the threat of automatic sequestration looms if Congress is unable to reach a formal budget agreement by March. Sequestration would effectively reduce spending authority by about $1.2 trillion over the next nine years. Under the sequester, spending cuts would occur equally across-the-board for discretionary programs in the first year, preventing Congress from appropriating funds in the way it sees most fitting. For 2014 and beyond, lawmakers would be able to take a more flexible approach to budget cuts by reducing spending in some areas and leaving others untouched. Therefore, sequestration would likely be more disruptive in 2013 than in subsequent years because the lack of flexibility would prevent lawmakers from prioritizing some programs over others. Exhibit 6: U.S. Government Spending as % of GDP “You cannot spend your way out of recession or borrow your way out of debt.” –Daniel Hannan “Restoring responsibility and accountability is essential to the Source: Office of Management and Budget, The Economist economic and fiscal health of our nation.” —Carl Levin Defense Defense is one area in particular that would experience a sizable impact on spending allocation with the sequester, as the Department of Defense (DoD) is set to have spending authority reduced by about 9%. Although defense spending is going to be cut either way, triggering the sequester would cause all programs and projects to be cut by an equal amount. Sequestration would likely necessitate furloughing civilian defense employees, cutting healthcare programs and reducing employee benefits, which are all steps the DoD would prefer to avoid. Aside from potential sequestration, the Budget “If we can’t find cuts Control Act requires a reduction in defense spending by approximately $487B over the in the defense budget, next decade, with $259B over the next five years17. we’re not looking carefully enough.” —Jon Huntsman, Jr.MSF Enterprises, LLC www.msfenterprises.com Copyright © 2013
  • 7. February 2013 Spotlight From Public to Private: Opportunities in the New U.S. Fiscal Environment 6 Exhibit 7: National Defense Budget Authority (in FY 2013 dollars) “We will bankrupt ourselves in the vain Source: Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments search for absolute security.” Given that there will be a reduction in defense spending regardless of whether —Dwight D. sequestration takes place, the DoD has started laying out its budget priorities while Eisenhower beginning to make spending cuts. One objective is to decrease the size of the active U.S. force by reducing military presence in certain regions. The DoD has already announced plans to lay off thousands of temporary workers, which could put as many as 43,000 short-term employees out of a job18. The DoD will further seek to reduce the nation’s maritime and airlift fleets by taking steps to accelerate retirement of military vehicles, slow the pace of new construction and divest of assets when appropriate19. Despite program reductions, the DoD has maintained that it will protect allocations to science and technology programs, while limiting cuts to compensation and benefits as much as possible. Military personnel costs have nearly doubled since 2001, during a “Any defense force period in which the number of full-time personnel only increased by 8%20. Although worth its salt has to be compensation and benefits make up almost one-third of total defense spending, only able to deal with one-ninth of targeted DoD spending cuts will relate to personnel costs21. While the uncertainty, has to be Defense Department would prefer to maintain the employment status of its active able to deal with personnel, this may be unsustainable in the long-run as further reductions to the size of events that we may not the force are imminent. As the government looks to shift a portion of the employment have planned for.” burden to the private sector, it will likely provide support for former military by —Leon Panetta offering subsidized student loans. In such a scenario, for-profit education could receive a boost from the inflow of ex-military looking to acquire skills to enter new industries. While it is difficult to quantify the economic ripple effects of reductions to defense spending, there are certain sectors and geographic regions where negative impacts can be expected. For example, the $396B that the Defense Department plans to spend on 2,443 F-35 fighter jets through the late 2030’s22 may become an easy target for budget cuts. If purchase levels for the F-35 are reduced, there would be major negative effects not only for maker Lockheed-Martin, but also the Dallas-Fort Worth area where the jets are largely produced23. In local areas where military spending is one of the largest contributions to the economy, job losses are almost certain to occur as defense programs are scaled back. In some states, job cuts in defense-related industries may result in a transfer of labor to private sectors where there is growth to support higher levels ofMSF Enterprises, LLC www.msfenterprises.com Copyright © 2013
  • 8. February 2013 Spotlight From Public to Private: Opportunities in the New U.S. Fiscal Environment 7 employment. Manufacturing job losses in oil and gas producing areas, for example, could balance out if there is excess capacity for laid off workers to be hired at local production wells. Exhibit 8: U.S. Military Spending by State “Strengthening U.S. cyber security is common sense, like locking your door at night.” —Douglas Birch Source: Bloomberg Government Considering the expected reductions to the U.S. military force, greater emphasis will be placed on other areas of defense such as cyber operations. Cyber defense spending is one of the few categories where the DoD actually projects an increased level of investment, both in terms of defensive and offensive capabilities24. This could lead to opportunities for companies focused on cyber security and other preemptive forms of defense, as cuts will likely be felt more in reactive segments like weapons production. Firms with new, innovative forms of preventative security technologies should excel under such a scenario, as the government may look to shift research and development expenses to the private sector. U.S. initiatives to reduce its military presence in other regions of the world could lead to further opportunities for certain types of Security and Defense firms. The U.S. is expected to ease back from its role as a global peacekeeper, which may force other countries to increase spending on defense- related technologies. Therefore, companies with international ties that are able to produce modern, scalable cyber systems may be in one of the best positions to outperform peers in the defense industry. Healthcare While Medicaid is a mandatory spending item exempt from sequestration, some areas of Medicare are currently set to experience a 2% drop in funding over the next eight years with the sequester25. Payments to professionals that provide Medicare servicesMSF Enterprises, LLC www.msfenterprises.com Copyright © 2013
  • 9. February 2013 Spotlight From Public to Private: Opportunities in the New U.S. Fiscal Environment 8 will be reduced, along with funding for a number of health programs including research at the National Institutes of Health. According to a report by research firm Tripp Umbach, the sequester will contain between $10.7B and $16.4B in annual cuts to the Medicare budget, which could lead to the elimination of as many as 496,000 jobs in 2013 and a total of 766,000 jobs by 202126. Exhibit 9: Healthcare Entitlement Spending v. Discretionary “America’s healthcare system is neither healthy, caring, nor a system.” –Walter Cronkite Source: Congressional Budget Office Prior to the passage of the American Taxpayer Relief Act, 2013 Medicare payments to physicians were scheduled to decline 26.5% as part of the sustainable growth rate (SGR) formula. Congress approved a SGR patch to ensure physician’s claims in 2013 will be paid at 2012 levels, but an agreeable structure for future payments is yet to be determined27. In fact, Congress passed legislation to temporarily delay scheduled pay “The real cure for reductions every year since the SGR was created in 200328. While this has effectively what ails our frozen Medicare payments to physicians for the past decade, the cost of providing healthcare system patient care has increased over 20% during the same period29. The SGR patch today is less agreement reached at the beginning of 2013 provides yet another temporary fix, as government and more Medicare reimbursements for billed services are once again scheduled to decline freedom.” 26.5% at the end of the year. Due to this, the healthcare industry is faced with a high –Steve Forbes degree of uncertainty regarding the future of the Medicare program. Many hospitals and physicians have been preparing for this uncertainty through hiring freezes, layoffs, programs to achieve greater cost efficiencies and delayed capital expenditures. A stressed healthcare system may create opportunities for companies offering products and services that enable greater efficiency for providers, such as electronic health records management and cost containment platforms. In general, technologies that allow medical service providers to reduce expenses and replace physical labor should be in high demand. Reduced government support for healthcare-related research, along with recent trends in which medical facilities have been postponing capital expenditures, may effectively slow the pace of technological advancement in the industry. Medical equipment makers could suffer as a result of delayed spending plans, but this could provide a boost to equipment servicers and refurbishers. In addition, a portion of research and development costs could be shifted to the private sector, which may createMSF Enterprises, LLC www.msfenterprises.com Copyright © 2013
  • 10. February 2013 Spotlight From Public to Private: Opportunities in the New U.S. Fiscal Environment 9 opportunities in the royalty bond space. Royalty bonds enable pharmaceutical firms and other research-intensive companies to securitize intellectual property and future revenue streams in order to provide additional capital for new product development. The industry already has a complicated payment structure, as healthcare providers typically wait 90-120 days to receive reimbursement following treatment. Since providers can get into a cash crunch when payments are delayed, the likely 2% cut from government funding may only exacerbate cash flow issues within the industry. The combination of these factors may provide greater opportunities in healthcare receivables factoring. Without the same level of government payments and subsidies, firms may be forced to explore alternative means of funding. Agriculture Independent of the sequester, the September deadline to address the Farm Bill could have major implications for the outlook of the U.S. agriculture industry. The Farm Bill is a piece of legislation that sets U.S. food and agriculture policy and must be passed every five years. Important aspects of the bill include farmer subsidies and crop insurance, which have considerable influence on the price of commodities. The bill “Farmers and ranchers determines the prices that the government pays to farmers to produce items such as have never faced as milk and wheat; failure to renew legislation would drop government payments back to many problems as they 1949 levels and force farmers to raise prices in order to make up the difference30. The do today with drought, value of agricultural land could also be at risk without a new Farm Bill in place, as range fires, high gas subsidies, crop insurance and low interest rates currently provide support for land prices and an ever prices. As real farmland prices have been rising for the past 17 years, there has been tightening budget on speculation that a bubble may be forming similar to the 1970’s and early 1980’s31. agricultural subsidies.” Land price stability is important because it is closely connected to the price stability of —Michael McCaul crops produced on the land. Investors that are concerned about risks surrounding the passage of a new Farm Bill and the effects on commodities and land prices may look to hedge with agricultural and interest rate futures. Farm Bill risk can further be avoided by investing in foreign crop-producing entities, which are sheltered from U.S. political risk but are able to benefit from higher commodities prices. Exhibit 10: Inflation-Adjusted Farmland Price (1960-2012) Source: American Enterprise Institute, USDA, Economic Research ServiceMSF Enterprises, LLC www.msfenterprises.com Copyright © 2013
  • 11. February 2013 Spotlight From Public to Private: Opportunities in the New U.S. Fiscal Environment 10 Conclusion At this point, it is difficult to quantify the impact of U.S. government tax and spending decisions for 2013. Some of the current solutions are only temporary and will likely be adjusted with further legislation, while other questions surrounding the fiscal environment remain to be addressed. The budget sequester will not likely be resolved until the March deadline approaches (or is extended), and even after that point a deal can be reached retroactively for a period of time until any noticeable consequences will be experienced. If sequestration is avoided through a comprehensive budget agreement, it may have to come at the expense of other line items such as entitlement spending or infrastructure investments, which are both priorities of the Obama administration. These areas could present investment opportunities as the burden is gradually shifted from the public sector to private industry. In addition to the uncertainty surrounding the sequester, government spending authority must be “The secret to getting extended by late March to avoid a partial government shut-down. A couple months things done is to act!” later in May, the U.S. borrowing limit will go back into effect and an agreement will —Dante Alighieri need to be reached to raise the debt ceiling once again. This is not an uncommon occurrence, as the debt limit has been raised or adjusted a total of 79 times since 196032. Later in the year, issues regarding the U.S. agriculture industry will have to be addressed through the Farm Bill by late September. Although 2013 U.S. tax and budget decisions will likely have negative implications for various industries, a closer look at the details reveals a number of opportunities resulting from the changing fiscal environment. While higher taxes may come at the expense of consumer confidence and discretionary spending, discount retailers and specialty lenders may be able to benefit from tighter household budgets. Higher tax “An idea not coupled rates on investment income for top earners could alter the appeal of various asset types with action will never and investment vehicles, but the impacts on general market performance should be get any bigger than minimal. On the business side, the current environment of low-cost debt and stagnant the brain cell it earnings could push companies to deploy capital toward R&D, PP&E and occupied.” acquisitions, as generating real top line growth will otherwise be difficult. In terms of —Arnold Glasow spending cuts, areas of the defense industry such as weapons and military vehicle production are likely to take a hit. Private defense firms will be forced to become leaner and more efficient to compensate for reduced funding, while specific segments like cyber operations are likely to outperform as the DoD shifts its strategy toward a greater focus on preventative technologies. In the healthcare space, budget cuts could affect several components of the industry as lower reimbursement payments will affect hospitals and physicians, as well as medical equipment makers that market to primary care providers. However, lower reimbursement rates for Medicare physicians could lead to a cash crunch in some segments of the industry that would increase the appeal of alternative funding sources like healthcare receivables. Reduced “Opportunities government expenditures for research in the medical field may raise interest in another multiply as they are form of alternative funding with royalty bonds, which enable securitization of future seized.” revenue streams to provide current funding. —Sun Tzu With the coverage given to the fiscal cliff by mainstream media outlets, it may be easy for one to form the opinion that the situation is only marked by negative characteristics. However, there is no shortage of investment opportunities available in the new fiscal setting. If investors are diligent enough to gather information and understand the complete picture, they will realize that any market environment can be profitable with the right positioning. So, while the U.S. fiscal situation may haveMSF Enterprises, LLC www.msfenterprises.com Copyright © 2013
  • 12. February 2013 Spotlight From Public to Private: Opportunities in the New U.S. Fiscal Environment 11 negative implications for growth, there should continue to be a range of attractive investment opportunities available. Michael Fields Managing Partner MSF Enterprises, LLC 717 17th St., Suite 2160 Denver, CO 80202 fieldsm@msfenterprises.com 303.847.4649 Disclaimer This document is provided for informational purposes only, is subject to change and is not binding. MSF Enterprises, LLC makes no guarantees regarding the information contained herein and any statements represent the opinions of the firm. MSF Enterprises, LLC is not responsible for any information stated to be obtained from third party sources. Any companies, asset types or investment opportunities mentioned in the document are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as recommendations. MSF Enterprises, LLC is not responsible for the use made of this document other than the purpose for which it is intended, except to the extent this would be prohibited by law. Obtain independent professional advice before investing.MSF Enterprises, LLC www.msfenterprises.com Copyright © 2013
  • 13. February 2013 Spotlight From Public to Private: Opportunities in the New U.S. Fiscal Environment 12Endnotes 1. Reddy, Sudeep. “Payroll Tax Cut Expires; How Much More Will You Pay?” The Wall Street Journal. 1 Jan 2013. 2. Feroli, Michael. “The US fiscal cliff: an update and a downgrade.” J.P. Morgan. 18 Oct 2012. 3. Frank, Robert. “Does Quantitative Easing Mainly Help the Rich?” CNBC. 14 Sep 2012. 4. Tan, Kopin. “The Next Boom.” Barron’s. 26 Jan 2013. 5. Harrison, J.D. “How the ‘fiscal cliff’ deal affects entrepreneurs and small businesses.” The Washington Post. 2 Jan 2013. 6. Ibid. 7. Tan, Kopin. “The Next Boom.” Barron’s. 26 Jan 2013. 8. Ibid. 9. Ibid. 10. Ibid. 11. Ibid. 12. Story, Louise. “As Companies Seek Tax Deals, Governments Pay High Price.” The New York Times. 1 Dec 2012. 13. Ibid. 14. Tan, Kopin. “The Next Boom.” Barron’s. 26 Jan 2013. 15. “Energy for Economic Growth: Energy Vision Update 2012.” World Economic Forum. 2012. 16. Epstein, Gene. “In Praise of a Slimmer Uncle Sam.” Barron’s. 26 Jan 2013. 17. “Defense Budget Priorities and Choices.” U.S. Department of Defense. January 2012. 18. Nissenbaum, Dion. “Pentagon Laying Off Thousands of Temps.” The Wall Street Journal. 25 Jan 2013. 19. “Defense Budget Priorities and Choices.” U.S. Department of Defense. January 2012. 20. Ibid. 21. Ibid. 22. Austen, Ian and Christopher Drew. “Canada Reviews Plans to Buy F-35 Fighter Jets.” The New York Times. 12 Dec 2012. 23. Murray, Lance. “F-35 could be target of federal budget cutters, report says.” Dallas Business Journal. 8 Jan 2013. 24. “Defense Budget Priorities and Choices.” U.S. Department of Defense. January 2012. 25. Fiegl, Charles. “Massive job losses expected under Medicare sequester.” American Medical News. 24 Sep 2012. 26. Ibid. 27. Glendinning, David. “Medicare pay reprieve in place; next threat is 2% cut in March.” American Medical News. 7 Jan 2013. 28. Kurlander, Stuart; Greig, Eric; Scherb, Esther and Jeremy Alexander. “Client Alert: Congress Delays Medicare Physician Pay Cut With American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012, but Reduces Payments to Other Medicare Providers.” Latham & Watkins. 16 Jan 2013. 29. Fiegl, Charles. “Massive job losses expected under Medicare sequester.” American Medical News. 24 Sep 2012. 30. Doering, Christopher. “Agriculture leaders reach deal on farm bill extension.” USA Today. 30 Dec 2012. 31. Pollock, Alex. “A bubble to remember—and anticipate?” American Enterprise Institute. 15 Nov 2012. 32. Tiron, Roxana and James Rowley. “House Votes to Temporarily Suspend U.S. Debt Ceiling.” Bloomberg. 23 Jan 2013.Bibliography“A Guide to the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012.” Morgan Stanley. 3 Jan 2013.Austen, Ian and Christopher Drew. “Canada Reviews Plans to Buy F-35 Fighter Jets.” The New York Times. 12 Dec 2012.“Defense Budget Priorities and Choices.” U.S. Department of Defense. January 2012.Doering, Christopher. “Agriculture leaders reach deal on farm bill extension.” USA Today. 30 Dec 2012.Ebeling, Ashlea. “New Healthcare Flexible Spending Account Rules for 2013, Use-It-Or-Lose-It Still Undecided.” Forbes. 16 Nov 2012.“Energy for Economic Growth: Energy Vision Update 2012.” World Economic Forum. 2012.Epstein, Gene. “In Praise of a Slimmer Uncle Sam.” Barron’s. 26 Jan 2013.Feroli, Michael. “The US fiscal cliff: an update and a downgrade.” J.P. Morgan. 18 Oct 2012.Fiegl, Charles. “Massive job losses expected under Medicare sequester.” American Medical News. 24 Sep 2012.“Fiscal Cliff Deal: Better Late Than Never.” Atlantic Trust. 4 Jan 2013.Frank, Robert. “Does Quantitative Easing Mainly Help the Rich?” CNBC. 14 Sep 2012.Glendinning, David. “Medicare pay reprieve in place; next threat is 2% cut in March.” American Medical News. 7 Jan 2013.Harrison, J.D. “How the ‘fiscal cliff’ deal affects entrepreneurs and small businesses.” The Washington Post. 2 Jan 2013.Harrison, Todd. “Analysis of the FY 2013 Defense Budget and Sequestration.” Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. August 2012.Khimm, Suzy. “The sequester, explained.” The Washington Post. 15 Sep 2012.Kurlander, Stuart; Greig, Eric; Scherb, Esther and Jeremy Alexander. “Client Alert: Congress Delays Medicare Physician Pay Cut With American Taxpayer Relief Act of2012, but Reduces Payments to Other Medicare Providers.” Latham & Watkins. 16 Jan 2013.Lerman, David. “Military Cuts Threaten Virginia’s Pentagon-Dependent Economy.” Bloomberg. 17 Nov 2011.Murray, Lance. “F-35 could be target of federal budget cutters, report says.” Dallas Business Journal. 8 Jan 2013.Nissenbaum, Dion. “Pentagon Laying Off Thousands of Temps.” The Wall Street Journal. 25 Jan 2013.Pollock, Alex. “A bubble to remember—and anticipate?” American Enterprise Institute. 15 Nov 2012.Reddy, Sudeep. “Payroll Tax Cut Expires; How Much More Will You Pay?” The Wall Street Journal. 1 Jan 2013.Schoen, John. “Payroll tax holiday’s end could weigh on weak economy.” MSNBC. 22 Oct 2012.Story, Louise. “As Companies Seek Tax Deals, Governments Pay High Price.” The New York Times. 1 Dec 2012.Tan, Kopin. “The Next Boom.” Barron’s. 26 Jan 2013.Tiron, Roxana and James Rowley. “House Votes to Temporarily Suspend U.S. Debt Ceiling.” Bloomberg. 23 Jan 2013.MSF Enterprises, LLC www.msfenterprises.com Copyright © 2013