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S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
S02  Trends But No Directions
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S02 Trends But No Directions


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  • 1. Nordic Region Technical Conference Oslo, May 2006 Michael Erichsen, CSC Trends, but No Directions? IT in the Age of Globalization
  • 2. Purpose of this Presentation
    • Not really to answer questions, but to try to ask them
    • CAUTION:
    • The speaker does NOT necessarily have any deep knowledge in the areas discussed
    • The presentation consists mainly of unsubstantiated statements, unfounded prejudice, and loose claims ripped off the Internet
    • A complete literature list would be longer than the presentation
    • But perhaps we could draw some perspective and inspiration when considering the many confusing trends
    • The thoughts, opinions, and considerations are the speaker’s own, and not necessarily those of his company or of the GSE Steering Committees
  • 3. Paradigm Shifts and Foresight
    • “ Paradigm Shifts” is a way of discussing changes in the past by grouping them on a high level
    • “ Foresight” is a technique used by Governments and Universities to build scenarios to help them choose policies to further their aims and strategies
    • Why are such methods important?
      • They can help us better understand the trends that affect our countries, our companies, and the future of each of us
  • 4. Trends, but No Directions? IT in the Age of Globalization
    • Paradigm Shifts
  • 5. What’s a Paradigm?
  • 6. Scott Adams’ Own Comment
    • If you can say “Well, we are going to do a paradigm here. We're looking at different models. We'll run a few simulations and put this together to see if we can get a consensus.”
    • That sounds much better than “I don't know”
  • 7. Brother, Can You Paradigm?
    • Thomas S. Kuhn: The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (1962):
    • Scientific advancement is not evolutionary
      • A series of peaceful interludes punctuated by intellectually violent revolutions, where one conceptual world view is replaced by another
    • A Paradigm Shift is a change from one way of thinking to another
      • It's a revolution, a transformation, a sort of metamorphosis. It just does not happen, but rather it is driven by agents of change
        • As paraphrased by professor Frank Pajares
  • 8. Some Paradigm Shifts
    • Offshoring labour intensive work -> Automation & Back-shoring -> Offshoring automated work
    • “ EDP” a part of accounting -> IT a strategic resource -> -> Cost containment -> Innovation
    • Batch -> On-line -> Client/Server -> Web -> SOA
    • Decoupling of operating system, data, business processes, presentation, business rules
    • Data Centric ↔ Process Centric
    • Data Entry ↔ Case Work
    • Stationary -> Mobile
    • Centralized ↔ Decentralized
    • Top-Down ↔ Bottom-up ↔ Meet in the middle
  • 9. Details and the Complete Picture
  • 10. No attempt made to explain “Everything”
    • A theory has to be simpler than the data it explains, otherwise it does not explain anything
      • Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz in “Discours de métaphysique”, 1686, paraphrased by Gregory Chaitin
  • 11. Offshoring of Manufacturing
    • In the 1950’es manufacturing boomed, and workers were drawn from the countryside to the factories
    • In the 1960’es workers were imported from abroad
    • In the 1970’es manufacturing was exported to the third world
      • “ Footloose” industries, Free Trade Zones
    • Automation and robots demanded highly skilled workers
      • Some manufacturing was “backshored”
    • In the 1990’es a highly skilled Chinese workforce entered the world market, and almost all manufacturing was re-offshored
      • Important to note that this has been a non-linear process
      • The consequences in Europe: Marginalization of unskilled labour (to a high degree affecting imported workers and their children). Fear of globalization (“Fortress Europe”)
  • 12. The Role of Information Technology
    • IT entered companies as Data Processing (EDP), a subset of the accounting department
      • Faster file handling, better calculations
    • As IT matured, and IT departments became more ambitious, they promoted IT as a strategic resource
      • Seen by upper management as a trick to gain power
    • During the bubble, everybody rushed into e-something
      • ERP, CRM, SCM, EAI, Web…
    • The bubble burst, and cost containment ruled
      • IT must support cost cutting – and take a lot of cutbacks itself
    • Now focus is moving back from the bottom line to the top line
      • IT now must support Innovation to help companies compete
  • 13. Innovation is not the Same as Creativity
    • "Innovation… is generally understood as the introduction of a new thing or method… Innovation is the embodiment, combination, or synthesis of knowledge in original, relevant, valued new products, processes, or services.“ (Luecke & Katz, 2003)
    • "All innovation begins with creative ideas… We define innovation as the successful implementation of creative ideas within an organization. In this view, creativity by individuals and teams is a starting point for innovation; the first is necessary but not sufficient condition for the second". (Amabile et al, 1996)
    • "Innovation, like many business functions, is a management process that requires specific tools, rules, and discipline." (Davila et al, 2006)
    • Definitions taken from Wikipedia
  • 14. Tools to Promote Innovation
  • 15. Six Myths of Creativity Research Results (Teresa Amabile, Harvard) Myth People's fear of the unknown led them to basically disengage from the work A Streamlined Organization Is a Creative Organization When people compete for recognition, they stop sharing information Competition Beats Collaboration People are more likely to have a breakthrough if they were happy the day before Fear Forces Breakthroughs Creativity requires an incubation period; people need time to soak in a problem and let the ideas bubble up Time Pressure Fuels Creativity The handful of people spending a lot of time wondering about their bonuses were doing very little creative thinking Money Is a Creativity Motivator Anyone with normal intelligence is capable of doing some degree of creative work Creativity Comes From Creative Types
  • 16. The Computing Platform
    • Aiken’s Law, 1947: “Only 6 computers needed to perform all calculations in the US”
    • Batch -> On-line -> Client/Server/ERP/CRM -> Web -> SOA -> POA? EDA? Something completely different?
    • Driven by forces like
      • Technical inventions
      • Globalization
      • Business changes like mergers and acquisitions
      • Changing expectations by users, customers, and partners
  • 17. Decoupling
    • The first systems were tightly coupled Operating System-Data-Business Logic-Presentation monoliths
    • Operating systems and applications were separated
    • Data was separated using database management systems (network, hierarchical, relational etc.)
    • Presentation was separated using client/server, GUI, and Web Interfaces
    • Application components were decoupled from each other using APPC, EDI, RPC, RMI, and Web Services/SOAP
    • Business rules, processes, and control logic were separated using Business Process Management Systems
  • 18. A Counter-Trend to Decoupling
    • Case tools in the 1990’es like IEF/COOL:Gen derived applications and data so strongly from business models that data was effectively owned by specific applications
      • This is a problem for current reengineering projects, because an enterprise data model is difficult to implement
    • Shrink-wrapped ERP packages like SAP and Siebel is a new generation of monoliths
      • In practical life you cannot access or understand SAP relational data outside the SAP system
      • SAP opens up to SOA architectures by defining itself as the core and providing the ESB
  • 19. The Data Centric Paradigm
    • The Data Centric paradigm was driven by Database Management systems and decoupling of data
    • Built on a mathematical basis: Set Theory founded by Georg Cantor
    • Modelling starting from enterprise “master data”
      • Identities and attributes of customers, products, employees, and other core reference data
      • Implemented in CRM, ERP, and other Shrink-wrapped systems of the 90’es
      • Backed by vendors like Oracle and SAP
    • Business Intelligence, OLAP, Data Mining, ETL, etc. can discover new information from non-obvious patterns in large sets of data
    • Object orientation enhanced data with its inherent methods
    • Metadata makes data more independent of single applications
      • XML an excellent medium
    • Including both structured data (Databases) and unstructured data (email, Office documents)
  • 20. The Process Centric Paradigm
    • The Process Centric paradigm was driven by recent business changes, SOA technologies and decoupling of processes
    • Built on a mathematical basis: π Calculus founded by Robin Milner et al.
    • The processes of the enterprise is seen as the most important aspect
      • Sees databases as a place, where state is kept, when lights are out
    • Focus is moving to innovation
    • First generation SOA projects are often mainly technical integration projects
    • Service-enablement of legacy systems and SOAP-interfaces exposes functionality as services and prepares combination into business processes that can be dynamically reconfigured
    • BPM systems are maturing and integrating with SOA technologies
  • 21. No More Waiting Rooms?
    • Customers waiting in line, spending hours in waiting rooms, or rusting on telephone queues are no longer deemed acceptable
    • Office staff changes from data entry clerks to case officers, handling a case or a client “from cradle to grave”
    • This drives continuous improvement of processes, higher degrees of automated and IT-supported processes, integration between systems, and self service
  • 22. Computer Terminals become Mobile
    • Teletype Terminals -> green screens -> GUI -> handheld terminals/PDA’s/mobile phones etc.
    • Gartner predicts that in the future everybody will only have laptops – and that we will have to pay for them ourselves, since we also use them for private purposes
      • This sounds like a hit among company chief financial officers
  • 23. Centralize or Decentralize
    • This set of paradigms has regularly shifted back and forth
    • And will probably continue to do so
  • 24. Where to Start your Design Projects
    • The discussion about Top-Down or Bottom-up has been running for years
    • Top-Down puts the business needs in focus
    • Bottom-Up provides robust building blocks to build any application needed, and includes the possibility of buying 3rd party components
    • The Business Process-Service Oriented design is becoming popular by combining into “Meet in the Middle”
    • Business Process Analysis and Modelling should be guiding your services design
  • 25. Bicycling Before and After Team CSC
  • 26. Bicycling Before and After Team CSC
  • 27. Trends, but No Directions? IT in the Age of Globalization
    • Foresight
  • 28. What is Foresight?
    • Foresight covers activities aiming at
      • thinking
      • debating
      • shaping the future
    • The driver is the complexity of science, technology and society interrelationships, the limitation of financial resources, and the increasing rate of scientific and technological change
  • 29. Thinking, Debating, and Shaping the Future
    • Forecasting, technology assessment, future studies and other forms of foresight try to identify long term trends and thus to guide decision-making
      • Foresight aims at identifying today's research and innovation priorities on the basis of scenarios of future developments in science and technology, society and economy
    • Foresight is a participative process involving different stakeholders
      • Methods include academic studies, panels, and working groups
    • Foresight aims at identifying possible futures, imagining desirable futures, and defining strategies
      • Results are generally fed into public decision-making, but they also help participants themselves to develop or adjust their strategy
  • 30. Business Foresight
    • Consider whether you could use or participate in such Foresight projects
      • There are university people who are very good at it
    • One aspect is the expectations of the next generation of users, customers, citizens
      • They are going to be very much different from their parents’ generation
      • And the next wave of retired persons are going to be demanding and difficult too – because that will be many of us in this room!
    • The new generation of reengineered IT systems that we are building now might have a lifecycle expectancy of maybe 15-20 years, so very big changes in such directions must be prepared for
  • 31. Technology Foresight
    • If we think of a 15-20 year period it takes little imagination to foresee the possible size of technology changes over such a period
    • Wireless everywhere, grid, all kinds of new devices…
    • Loosely-coupled, open-interface integration between systems that need to know nothing about the internals of each other will be the standard
    • At the technology level nobody can claim to have the slightest idea whether the differences between mainframes and midrange systems still will exist or whether they have converged
      • This does not necessarily mean that mainframes will die, as often forecasted, but rather that midrange system will grow in size, processing power, stability and close symbiosis between hardware and operating systems, so the differences will wither away
  • 32. The Gartner Christmas Report 2005
    • No more company paid laptops
    • Telephony will be mobile or internet based
    • The job market for IT specialists will shrink
    • More Business Process outsourcing
    • Software will save lives in the health sector
    • Government regulations will be in focus
      • The actual report is of cause more detailed and faceted. Get the details from Gartner yourselves
  • 33. A Gartner “Hype Curve”
    • Gartner’s phases are:
      • Technology/Business Trigger
      • Peak of Inflated Expectations
      • Trough of Disillusionment
      • Slope of Enlightenment
      • Plateau of Productivity
    • No presentation is complete without either a Hype Curve or a Magic Quadrant
  • 34. A Revolution that Never Took Place
    • “ Before man reaches the moon, mail will be delivered within hours from New York to California, to Britain, to India or Australia by guided missiles. We stand on the threshold of rocket mail”
        • Arthur Summerfield, US Postmaster General, 1959
  • 35. Remember “The New Economy”?
    • “ There isn't an Internet company in the world that's going to fail because of mistakes – Internet companies make thousands of mistakes every week”
        • Candice Carpenter of iVillage, 1998
  • 36. Trends, but No Directions? IT in the Age of Globalization
    • Globalization
  • 37. The Globalization Era
    • There has been an international division of work since long distance trade started in the Stone or Bronze Age
    • It changed drastically during colonial times when colonial powers controlled who manufactured, who produced raw materials, who were allowed to buy from whom – and who were sold as slaves
    • After World War II and decolonization countries have become politically free, but with very different levels of development, economy and political rights
    • Changes in economic strength, the fall of the Iron Curtain, and the establishment of new networks of terror have changed both the political and the economic climate of the planet: The Cold War Era has been replaced by the Globalization Era
  • 38. Characteristics of Globalization
    • People around the Globe are more connected to each other than ever before
    • Information and money flow more quickly than ever
    • Goods and services produced in one part of the world are increasingly available in all parts of the world
    • International travel is more frequent
    • International communication is commonplace
      • Critics claim that Globalization means US Domination (“McDonaldization”, “Coca-Colonization”)
  • 39. A Globalization Scenario
    • One scenario often discussed is the global consolidation of companies into three of each with an undergrowth of national subcontractors:
      • Three car manufacturers, three computer companies, three airplane manufacturers, three airlines, three food producers, etc.
    • Imagine the consequences on systems integration, network, layering of the Internet, etc.
  • 40. Warfare is changing
    • Warfare has been the main driver of technology for the last several thousand years
    • “ The cold war” is replaced by “The war on terror”
    • The US Patriot Act, EU, and national Nordic anti-terror legislation affects the IT and telecommunication businesses by demanding large scale storage of communication patterns and/or content
      • Its will keep a lot of the database, data mining and OLAP specialists busy
      • It also is subject for a large debate in all democratic countries
  • 41. Trends, but No Directions? IT in the Age of Globalization
    • Changes in IT
  • 42. Ten Key Trends for IT Services in 2006 Mergers and Acquisitions among IT service providers Finance & Accounting outsourcing to ramp up Procurement outsourcing to explode India arrives in infrastructure management Telecoms/IT services crossover continues Continental Europe warms to outsourcing Telecoms, pharma and retail the hot sectors Multi-sourcing Mega-deals to decline Steady growth in spending ComputerWire Market Watch predicts:
  • 43. Compliance
    • Financial scandals has put focus on “compliance”, i.e. acting according to accepted standard procedures and processes
      • Sarbanes-Oxley and Basel II
    • Outsourcing, offshoring, and the change of IT from art to industry has changed many relations from close partnerships to commercial relations
      • A contract is now a governance tool rather than an emergency brake
      • Tight standards on IT processes and project management like ITIL, PRINCE 2, CMMI, and Six Sigma
    • Sessions S13 and S14 will discuss ITIL and SOX
  • 44. Processification of IT
    • The compliance paradigm drives IT organizations to change their ways of working from art and handicraft to industrial processes
      • Better documentation is one important product
    • Mainframe has learned to work structured many years ago
    • Midrange and desktop are struggling to change their processes
    • This is a sign of maturity, and without any doubt necessary
    • It changes the skill sets necessary to do the job
    • Which consequences for innovation and creativity?
  • 45. Does IT Matter?
    • Article by Nicholas Carr in Harvard Business Review, May 2003
    • Followed by the book “Does IT Matter? Information Technology and the Corrosion of Competitive Advantage”
    • Observation: IT becomes a commodity, and competitive advantage diminishes
    • His conclusion: Stop investing in IT
  • 46. IT Doesn’t Matter – Business Processes Do
    • Smith and Fingar divide IT into three stages:
      • IT infrastructure
      • Business automation
      • Business process management
    • IT does matter in the last area because it is a business process enabler, say Smith and Fingar
  • 47. Software Engineering
    • Procedural programming is based on mathematical models like λ calculus and the work of Alan Turing
    • Correctness can be proved mathematically
    • The US DoD spent years validating the Ada language, used for spaceflight and guided missiles
  • 48. Weinberg’s Second Law
    • If Builders Built Buildings The Way Programmers Write Programs, Then The First Woodpecker That Came Along Would Destroy Civilization
      • Gerald Weinberg, 1972
    • Years ago I quoted to an architect Weinberg's line. "Oh," she said, "but that's just how they do build them.“
      • George Jansen in RISKS Digest, 2005
  • 49. A Component Architecture Debate in “RISKS”
    • “ If you have small components that you know are right, and you then combine those components to manipulate each other according to their published interface specifications, the results should be consistently correct. The results will be predictable, the usage will be consistent every time. But in general, this is not how we are designing software.” (Paul Robinson)
    • “ There is only widespread take up of component reuse where those components are reliable and free.” (Steve Taylor)
    • “ Software patents make component reuse dead. Reuse a bunch of stuff and pay many fees, royalties, patent searches, lawyers and contract negotiations. So who will try reusing components with very real legal, financial, etc. risks when the risk of consequence for a bug (even resulting in deaths or huge financial losses,) is small?” (Steven Hauser)
    • [Open Source] “provides us with the ability to obtain components that we can fix (or hire experts to fix) if they break.” (Tom Swiss)
    • Session S03 discusses experiences from a Component Architecture
  • 50. A Critique of OO from the Same Debate
    • “ What OO has done to the development of software engineering is devastating Instead of continue to develop more advanced languages we got stuck with half-assembler languages like C and followers. A compiler for a high level language (re-)uses code templates. A compiler for a more advanced language could reuse even larger chunks of code, without any need for a programmer to try to find the code in a catalog To my disappointment, I have seen very little progress during the last two decades in the field of software development The ever increasing speed of the processors and the cheap memory prices has more encouraged fast hacking than a systematic development based on sound engineering principles.” (Kurt Fredriksson)
  • 51. The Case for SOA and for LST
    • The current answer to the problems discussed is Enterprise Architectures that are built on standard components, shrink-wrapped packages, legacy systems functionality, plus custom built service-enabled applications where needed
      • Plus stronger management procedures like ITIL etc.
    • The case for Legacy Systems Transformation (LST) is that these systems are thoroughly tested, tuned, debugged, and functionally corrected by change management, based on years of user observation in real production
      • If it makes sense to reuse parts of their functionality in the new business processes
    • But Kurt Fredriksson would probably accuse us of hiding the symptoms rather than curing the disease
  • 52. Open Standards and Open Source
    • Open standards like SOAP means that you can connect separate systems to each other in a documented way without paying a license fee
      • Everybody says they support it
    • Open source is just another way of pricing products and services
      • The question about the quality of open source has mainly ended by now
    • The discussions about open source and open document standards are also a battlefield in the struggle for market domination
  • 53. Trends, but No Directions? IT in the Age of Globalization
    • SOA, POA, EDA, and other TLA’s
  • 54. SOAP is not the same as SOA
    • SOAP is not the same as SOA
    • SOAP is not the same as SOA
    • SOAP is not the same as SOA
    • SOAP is not the same as SOA
    • SOAP is not the same as SOA
    • SOAP is not the same as SOA
    • SOAP is not the same as SOA
    • SOAP is not the same as SOA
    • SOAP is not the same as SOA
    • SOAP is not the same as SOA
    • SOAP is not the same as SOA
    • SOAP is not the same as SOA
    • SOAP is not the same as SOA
    • SOAP is not the same as SOA
    • SOAP is not the same as SOA
    • SOAP is not the same as SOA
    • SOAP is not the same as SOA
    • SOAP is not the same as SOA
    • SOAP is not the same as SOA
    • SOAP is not the same as SOA
    • SOAP is not the same as SOA
    • SOAP is not the same as SOA
    • SOAP is not the same as SOA
    • (Just wanted to make a point)
  • 55. SOAP is not the same as SOA
    • SOAP (aka Web Services) is a protocol used for system-to-system communication
    • Any system can be equipped with a SOAP interface – like an APPC interface, a Sockets interface, an RPC interface etc.
    • SOAP can be used in a SOA, but so can other interfaces
    • Sessions S03, S40, S64, S76, and S79 will discuss technical details
    • SOA is an enterprise architecture model, where functionality in separate systems is exposed using loose coupling and open standard interfaces, including – but not exclusively – SOAP
    • Many current SOA projects are technical infrastructure projects rather business projects
    • Which is why some people call a full SOA with BPMS a Process Oriented Architecture (POA)
  • 56. Robert Morris in zJournal, 2006
    • There’s no shortage of vendors willing to further confuse the issue by offering simplistic solutions to delivering mainframe Web Services, and claiming this is synonymous with delivering SOA
    • This approach should come with a warning label: “Web Service enclosed. All assembly required.”
    • It’s like delivering a load of lumber to a prospective home-builder
    • It requires:
      • An in-depth understanding of how the components work together to comprise a recognizable business task
      • Automating the interaction of the underlying functionality and data sources necessary for the task
      • The whole thing be packaged in an easily recognizable and accessible form for effective use and reuse
    • Talking “Web Services” instead of “business services” really misses the point
  • 57. POA according to Howard Smith
    • From “Workflow is just a π Process”, 2003:
    • A BPMS does not “integrate” applications and Web services as many workflow solutions and EAI do. That approach only creates aligned data and some workflow control over messaging
    • By contrast, a BPMS assists in the direct reuse of existing investments in IT processes by consolidating them within a process-oriented architecture (POA)
    • This means we can persist them as data records in a BPMS process base, a database of process records. Like stored information within the thread of email, the process base contains the past, present and alternative futures (via simulation) of the stored process
  • 58. POA according to Howard Smith
    • Within a POA, the conceptual centre is the business process itself, the focus of management attention
    • In the same way that the RDBMS, based on the relational model of data management, replaced disparate hierarchical and network-oriented databases, we believe BPMS will replace multiple approaches to workflow
    • The BPMS heralds a change in the IT stack itself, from applications built on a data foundation, toward process management tools built on a process foundation
  • 59. POA according to Howard Smith
    • The BPMS platform provides a process-oriented architecture (POA) that can be deployed over today’s Web services platforms that are, by contrast, service-oriented architectures (SOA)
    • Web services are just fine at exposing the process participants the BPMS can exploit
    • Web services live in the era before π calculus-based technologies
    • They represent the final standardisation of 20 th century technology, and for many businesses that’s long overdue
    • By contrast, the BPMS is a 21 st century innovation and ripe for market adoption
  • 60. Event Driven Architecture
    • Event-Driven Architectures (EDA) can be seen as an extension to SOA and BPMS
    • EDA refers to any applications that react intelligently to changes in conditions, whether that change is the impending failure of a hard drive or a sudden change in stock price.
    • Gartner sees EDA as “THE NEXT BIG THING”™
    • Session S05, “Complex Event Processing” by professor Mark Burgess discusses the theoretical foundations for EDA
  • 61. IBM and Event Driven Architecture
    • “ Planned enhancements to the CICS family of products”, IBM Statement of Direction May 2006, include:
    • “ IBM intends to support Event Driven Architecture (EDA) to initiate the event-triggered delivery of a message for appropriate action in managing and separately maintaining infrastructure and business processes
    • It is planned for CICS to provide non-invasive instrumentation of business logic that can be used by both business analysts and developers. As a first step in its longer-term EDA strategy, IBM intends that the complementary product, CICS Business Event Publisher for MQSeries, will be extended to conform with the Common Event Infrastructure for working with a wide range of business, system, and network events”
    • I would expect session S30 to discuss this further
    Supports asynchronous operations through event messaging Asynchronous Flow of control that is determined by the recipient, based on an event posted Event-based trigger Publish/Subscribe messaging where one specific event can impact many subscribers Many-to-many communications Event publishers are not aware of the existence of event subscribers Decoupled interactions Description Capability
  • 62. Trends, but No Directions? IT in the Age of Globalization
    • Outsourcing and Offshoring
  • 63. Growth of Indian Offshoring
    • Has gone through three stages
      • Development of world-class applications development skills, when firms like Tata became partners with Western firms for low cost development
      • Indian firms offering low-end back-office services (call centers, transcribing medical records, processing insurance claims etc.)
      • More complex services are now being provided in IT and Business Process Outsourcing
    • According to The Economist, 2006
  • 64. New Countries are Joining In
    • Some of India's offshoring giants are offshoring themselves, fueling the next round, and U.S. firms are joining in
      • Tata has opened offices in Budapest, in Hangzhou, China, and in Chile. It plans to add 1,500 to the 485 people at its Brazil arm
      • Infosys Technologies set up shop in Shanghai, Mauritius, Prague and Brno
      • Wipro has new offices in Shanghai and Beijing and soon in Bucharest
    • U.S. firms are expanding beyond India, too
      • Call-center giant Convergys recently opened offices in Dubai and Budapest
      • IBM Global Services is adding staff in China, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Brazil
      • Accenture is adding staff in the Philippines, China, Slovakia and the Czech Republic
  • 65. China’s Five Surprises
    • Edward Tse recently wrote in “Resilience Report” that by 2030, if not sooner, China could be the world’s largest economy. He thinks China will succeed, where Japan didn’t, because of five “surprises”:
    • “ Why not me?”
      • The intensity of Chinese entrepreneurialism is propelling many companies, even now, beyond a role as producers of low-cost commodities
    • Fearless experimenters
      • China’s emphasis on rapid-fire research and development makes it a seedbed for original products and services in the future
  • 66. China’s Five Surprises
    • China’s “brain gain”
      • The ability to attract and retain executives from around the world has provided a higher level of competence for China’s enterprises
    • Out from Guanxi
      • Outsiders still view China as a largely patronage-based economy, in which connections and ethnic background determine success, but increasingly (at least in some sectors), high-quality management and transparent governance structures count more
    • China’s overseas ambition
      • The country is taking on a role as a catalyst of sustained economic growth in the emerging markets of the developing world
  • 67. Backsourcing
    • Backsourcing is taking back in-house services that were previously outsourced
    • JP Morgan Chase did it with IBM in the wake of the Bank One merger
    • Banco Santander has said that it is backsourcing some of Abbey’s IT operations
    • Sainsbury’s announced that it is bringing back in-house its multi-billion outsourcing with Accenture
    • Also examples from Denmark
      • Could this happen for offshoring as well?
  • 68. The Danish Globalization Council
    • Established by the Danish government April 2005
    • It has been advising the government on an ambitious, comprehensive strategy to prepare Denmark better for globalization
    • It comprised representatives from Trade Unions, employer organisations, education, and research circles
  • 69. “ Progress, Renewal, and Security”
    • A report from the government after listening to the Globalization Council, published April 2006, concluded among other points:
      • Better education
      • More competition among universities
      • Stronger cooperation between companies and universities
      • Stronger competition
      • Import of more highly educated workers
      • Lower taxes
    • The report has been criticised for not listening enough to the council, for just repeating existing government policy, and for having too short a perspective
    • It wisely focuses on furthering the Scandinavian “flexicurity” model
      • When I used the same argument as the report about education in a recent discussion, I was challenged: “What can your education do to compete with 100.000’es of Ph.D.’s in India and China?”
    • Perhaps the Innovation paradigm would be a better answer?
      • It is in fact a keyword in the report
  • 70. The Offshoring Equation for Companies
    • Offshore 20 jobs and keep 30 at home – or lose all 50 jobs to your competitor?
    • Offshoring is a fact of life
    • Companies have to analyze what to keep locally and what to offshore
    • Companies have to adapt new processes and standards to control and manage this new level of complexity
      • What are the social consequences for society and for employees?
  • 71. Intergovernmental Interoperability
    • The Danish Ministry of Science, Technology, and Education is promoting Intergovernmental Interoperability based on Service Oriented Architectures and a very long list of recommended standards
    • Many very large government systems are being reengineered into SOA architectures
    • Some systems, however, are too simple in their structure for a SOA to make sense
      • Alternatively, they are exposing relevant parts of their functionality as Web Services for others to use
    • “ Nordic Relocation” is an Inter-Nordic example of such projects
  • 72. Trends, but No Directions? IT in the Age of Globalization
    • Stratification of IT
  • 73. Symptoms of Stratification
    • Stratification, i.e.: separation in layers
    • Peter F. Gammelby observed in a Danish newspaper, 2006:
      • Globalization and the lack of Danish IT experts are creating a deep salary gap in the Danish IT business
      • A growing number of companies are having their IT work done in low pay countries, which primarily affects the least educated IT staff here, both on job opportunities and salary
      • Highly educated IT specialists in contrary are in shortage here, and they are currently earning prize salaries. The lack of them are however now so strong – and their salaries so high – that companies have started to find the highly specialized workforce in low pay countries
  • 74. A new Stratification is Emerging
    • Companies often look at IT as a commodity or utility
    • They want to have unlimited IT resources and pay as they go
      • This pushes IT down the Value Chain
    • IT departments look at IT as a strategic resource
      • They want to move IT up the Value Chain and into the board room
    • The net product is a new division of work and a stratification of IT functions, departments, and staff inside companies, between companies, and internationally
    • This question poses itself:
      • Will you be an industrial worker on the code assembly line or in operations?
      • Or will you be part of business- and customer-facing engineering, architecture, and consulting?
    • This may affect your long-term job satisfaction and job security
  • 75. Trends, but No Directions? IT in the Age of Globalization
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