Forestcluster ltd bio based economy scenario process

Forestcluster Ltd Bio-basedeconomy scenario processTiina Pursula, Juha Vanhanen, Paula TommilaGaia Group Ltd | 15.11.2011

Bio-based economy scenario process7.10.2011 9.11.2011 9.12.2011 January Workshop II Workshop I Workshop III WinningCreation of Bio- concepts of the R&D themes of Reportingbased economy Bio-based the Bio-based Scenarios for economy in Economy SHOK 2030 2030 The wider Concrete The SHOK perspective opportunities in context the wider perspective 2

Value network of Bio-based economy sectors Integration Technology Services Bio products Agro Pharma and Food cosmeticsNutrients andFeed Water Biofuels Energy Chemicals Recycling Forest Bio-based Textiles Materials Funding R&D Packaging Education Wood products Pulp and paper 3

What is Bio-based economy?...Industries and economic sectors that “Bio economy is the part of economy, which creates growth andexploit biological resources... jobs by developing, refining and using biological resources in an…Agriculture, forestry, fisheries, food, environmentally sustainable way…chemicals and bio-fuels... ...Worth nearly €2 trillion, the European bio-economy provides...Replacing fossil fuel feedstocks... around 22 million jobs in Europe across sectors as diverse as agriculture, forestry, fisheries, food, chemicals and bio-fuels. This...Eliminating waste... is the impressive reality of the European bio-economy. It is an...Sustainability... indispensable part of all of our lives and plays a major role in...Strong knowledge base... making our lives better.” Máire Geoghegan-Quinn, EU Research...Growth and employment... and Innovation Commissioner, 2010...Societal benefits... “The bio-economy includes all industries and economic sectors that “The Knowledge-based Bio-economy is a broad concept which produce, manage, and otherwise can be defined in a number of ways. In essence, the vision is of a exploit biological resources (and Europe of the future in which fossil fuel feedstocks have been related services, supply or consumer replaced by renewable plant raw materials, chemical processes industries) such as agriculture, food, replaced by biological ones and waste virtually eliminated by fisheries, forestry etc.” working in closed-loop systems. Above all, it will build on a EU Bio-economy conference, 2005 strong European knowledge base of enabling science and technology and will generate sustainable employment for European citizens.“ EU Bio-Economy conference, 2010 4

What is Bio-based economy? “A bio-based economy is based on production paradigms that rely on biological processes and, as with natural ecosystems, use natural ...Biotechnological solutions for health and resource-based inputs, expend minimum amounts of problems...Economic output...Renewable biomass... energy and do not produce waste as ...Integration of biotech applications and biomass flows all materials discarded by one across sectors... Effective material loops... process are inputs for another ...Production paradigms that rely on biological processes... process and are reused in the ...Small-scale solutions... ecosystem.” Franz Fischler, 2010 (from WWF, Denmark)” A bio-economy is perceived as an economy based on sustainable production and conversion ofbiomass to be used as a major resource in a wide variety of industries. The locality of biomassproduction and low sustainability of its transportation over long distances calls for a distributedbio-economy consisting of a variety of small-scale solutions. The bio-economy strives to integratethe biomass flows of different industries in such a way that one industry’s waste or emissionsbecome another industry’s raw material. This approach is a means to create effective materialloops and fight the problems of climate change and resource depletion.” Sustainable Bio-economy: Potential, Challenges and Opportunities in Finland, Sitra 2010 “Biotechnology offers technological solutions for many of the health and resource-based problems facing the world. The application of biotechnology to primary production, health and industry could result in an emerging “bioeconomy” where biotechnology contributes to a significant share of economic output. The bioeconomy in 2030 is likely to involve three elements: advanced knowledge of genes and complex cell processes, renewable biomass, and the integration of biotechnology applications across sectors”. OECD (2009) The Bioeconomy to 2030: designing a policy agenda. 5

Bio-based economy in the SHOK context Bio-based economy as a solution to grand challenges:Impacts on society: climate change, resource A new societal system:Growth, jobs, economic depletion, population growth Way forward from theoutput, wellbeing and current fossil-basedsustainability economy Value addition from bio-based raw materials Sustainability: Closed material cycles Competences an essence of all Intelligent, integrated, resource and and R&D: bio-based energy efficient concepts Focus on renewal economy Technology integration Novel business and market opportunities Future oriented approach: from sectors of today into visions of the future 6

Bio-based economy scenarios in 2030 Main Drivers Outcomes 2030 ”How the critical factors develop” ”How the world looks like” • World trade & Economy • Business opportunitiesbusiness • Innovations and renewal • Value networks • Policy and regulation • Material flows • End-user Demand • Marketspeople • Societies • Products, services and • Food conceptsnature • Energy • Development of regions … Competitiveness • Natural resources … Well-being • Environment and climate change … Sustainability 7

”Everything isdepending oneverything” World tradeA very complex & economysystem! Policy and regulation Energy Innovations and renewal Bio products End-user demand Natural Minerals resources Nutrients Water Societies Environment and climate Land change Biomass Food

Bio-based economy scenarios in 2030 ”The Green renewal” International regulation is developed so that it provides a favorable operating environment for renewal and development of the bio-based economy. ”Drifting or steering?” Business as usual; attempts to re-organize global economical and environmental regulation and incentives continue, but with low success. © mbbirdy ”Battle for resources and survival” Control of global economy and climate change runs out of reach and © David Ciemny international organizations lose their power. Global economy collapses. 9

Innovativeness: No ready-made solutions available Technology availability Globally significant businessSustainable utilization Winning opportunities: of natural resources: concept of Market need and Raw material the Bio-based end user demand availability economy in 2030 Support from policy and regulation Includes the key elements of the Bio-based economy: Value addition from bio-based raw materials Closed material cycles Intelligent, integrated, resource and energy efficient concepts Technology integration 10

Winning concepts of Bio-based economy in 2030 ”The Green renewal” International regulation is developed so that it provides a favorable operating environment for renewal and development of the bio-based economy. • Integrated technologically advanced biorefineries for both urban and rural based feedstocks and a range of products with varying added value • Advanced bio-based energy products and systems • New plants for specific purposes © mbbirdy • Concepts for optimized biomass supply chain including waste and side streams • Recycling concepts for closed cycles of carbon, phosphorus and other nutrients © David Ciemny 11

Weak signals of Bio-based economy in 2030 ”The Green renewal” International regulation is developed so that it provides a favorable operating environment for renewal and development of the bio-based economy. • Robust process concepts combining small and large scale, re-thinking processes and on-site processing (e.g. during transportation) • Land use management concepts optimizing various needs and safeguarding biodiversity and overall sustainability, keeping the biomass supply chain in mind © mbbirdy • Concepts for sustainable local food production and fair and sufficient distribution of food • Community scale production e.g. transport fuels from household waste on site • Fresh water production from sea water (and waste water) • Ecosystem services and immaterial value of natural resources © David Ciemny 12

Winning concepts of Bio-based economy in 2030 ”Drifting or steering?” Business as usual; attempts to re-organize global economical and © mbbirdy environmental regulation and incentives continue, but with low success. • Efficient logistics and trading concepts to level bio-based feedstock production and demand • High value added products that maximize the value from the certain feedstock © mbbirdy • Robust mainly urban based biorefineries and production facilities with high feedstock flexibility • Robust, multipliable and modular cost-effective solutions for improved standard of living in emerging middle class of the developing countries: housing, food and packaging, transport © David Ciemny • Low carbon solutions in certain regulated markets 13

Weak signals of Bio-based economy in 2030 ”Drifting or steering?” Business as usual; attempts to re-organize global economical and © mbbirdy environmental regulation and incentives continue, but with low success.• Intensity of food production: more food from the same surface area• Phosphorus and other nutrients recycling from sanitation waste, fish waste and other sources• Management of various (local) feedstocks and complex supply chains: © mbbirdy (Locally) tailored solutions for biomass supply across industries and communities• Locally superior concepts that can be protected © David Ciemny 14

Winning concepts of Bio-based economy in 2030 ”Battle for resources and survival” Control of global economy and climate change runs out of reach and © David Ciemny international organizations lose their power. Global economy collapses. • Concepts for efficient utilization of locally available rich natural resources and trading to complement resource deficits, ”modern barter” • Material reuse and simple recycling systems • Land © mbbirdy management concepts and land ownership development concepts • Local (and backyard) concepts for material and energy efficient integrated production of commodities: food, energy and materials • New sources of food for areas which suffer from environmental changes, new crops and new cultivation methods • Concepts for local availability of fresh water and water management © David Ciemny 15

Weak signals of Bio-based economy in 2030 ”Battle for resources and survival” Control of global economy and climate change runs out of reach and © David Ciemny international organizations lose their power. Global economy collapses. • Water-efficient and waterless processes (e.g. ionic liquids) • Water cultivation systems and utilization of water-based biomass • Mobile small mills, which can be moved easily close to the raw material • Functioning decision-making systems in societies, making it possible to make © mbbirdy the most out of rare resources • Organic farming concepts with more closed nutrient cycle © David Ciemny 16

Winning concepts of Bio-based economy in 2030 © mbbirdy © David Ciemny• Closed, integrated material cycles across industries and communities• Trading and logistics of bio-based feedstocks locally and globally to level supply and demand• Concepts for material and energy efficient integrated production of bio-based energy and materials with high feedstock flexibility 17

Weak signals of Bio-based economy in 2030 © mbbirdy © David Ciemny• Recycling of phosphorus and other nutrients and minerals• Concepts for improved availability and efficient use of water• Concepts for sustainable and intensive local food production• Land management concepts 18

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Forestcluster ltd bio based economy scenario process

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