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The Employment Costs of Regulation
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The Employment Costs of Regulation

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Mercatus scholar Keith Hall will explain what agencies miss in their employment impact analysis for regulation, and what implications that raises for policymakers concerned about the economic impact …

Mercatus scholar Keith Hall will explain what agencies miss in their employment impact analysis for regulation, and what implications that raises for policymakers concerned about the economic impact of regulation over the long-term.

Published in: Technology, Business

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  • 1. The Employment Costs of RegulationKeith HallSenior Research FellowMercatus CenterGeorge Mason UniversityJune 14, 2013
  • 2. Introduction•  Employment Impact Ignored by U.S. Agencies•  Lack of Transparency to Public & Congress•  Recommendations:1.  Drop  Full  Employment  Assump3on  2.  Measure  Cost  of  Unemployment  3.  Use  Mul3market  Models  4.  Cumula3ve  Effects  
  • 3. Role of Regulation in Market Economy
  • 4. Balancing Benefits and Costs
  • 5. Employment Impact of Regulation
  • 6. Three Types of Employment Impact•  Macroeconomic/Dynamic Effects•  Long Run Impact on Productivity•  Worker Displacement Cost
  • 7. Drop Full Employment Assumption-10-8-6-4-2020 1 2 3 4 5Years Since Start of RecessionJob Loss Since the End of 2007(millions)Source: Current Employment Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsProduced by Keith Hall, Mercatus Center at George Mason University
  • 8. Measure Cost of Unemployment$45,000  $27,000  $35,000  $0  $5,000  $10,000  $15,000  $20,000  $25,000  $30,000  $35,000  $40,000  $45,000  $50,000  Before  Job  Loss   One  Year  Later   20  Years  Later  Average Annual EarningsBefore/After Job DisplacementSource: “Recessions and the Costs of Job Loss”,Davis and Wachter (2011)
  • 9. Use Multimarket Analysis
  • 10. Estimate Cumulative Effects

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