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Dr. Jack Goldstone, "The Center Cannot Hold"
Dr. Jack Goldstone, "The Center Cannot Hold"
Dr. Jack Goldstone, "The Center Cannot Hold"
Dr. Jack Goldstone, "The Center Cannot Hold"
Dr. Jack Goldstone, "The Center Cannot Hold"
Dr. Jack Goldstone, "The Center Cannot Hold"
Dr. Jack Goldstone, "The Center Cannot Hold"
Dr. Jack Goldstone, "The Center Cannot Hold"
Dr. Jack Goldstone, "The Center Cannot Hold"
Dr. Jack Goldstone, "The Center Cannot Hold"
Dr. Jack Goldstone, "The Center Cannot Hold"
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Dr. Jack Goldstone, "The Center Cannot Hold"

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Powerpoint Presentation by Dr. Jack Goldstone …

Powerpoint Presentation by Dr. Jack Goldstone
December 2, 2009
"The Center Cannot Hold: Demographic Change and International Security 2010-2050"
Social Change Project Lunch Lecture

Published in: Education, Travel, Technology
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  • 1.   The Center Cannot Hold: Demographic Change and International Security 2010-2050   Jack A. Goldstone                   2 December 2009 Mercatus Center  
  • 2. <ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>FOUR POPULATION MEGATRENDS </li></ul><ul><li>Big emerging markets and the world economy </li></ul><ul><li>Aging and shrinking populations in the developed countries </li></ul><ul><li>Youth and Islam: The New Face of the Developing World </li></ul><ul><li>The New Urban Frontier </li></ul>
  • 3. Table 1. The World’s Largest Countries <ul><li>2005 </li></ul><ul><li>China 1,315,844,000 </li></ul><ul><li>India 1,103,371,000 </li></ul><ul><li>USA 298,213,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Indonesia 222,781,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Brazil 186,405,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Pakistan 157,935,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Russia 143,202,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Bang’desh 141,822,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Nigeria 131,530,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Japan 128,085,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Mexico 107,029,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Viet Nam 84,238,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Philippines 83,054,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Germany 82,689,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Ethiopia 77,431,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Egypt 74,033,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Turkey 73,193,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Iran 69,515,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Thailand 64,233,000 </li></ul><ul><li>France 60,496,000 </li></ul><ul><li>UK 59,668,000 </li></ul><ul><li>2025 </li></ul><ul><li>China 1,441,426,000 </li></ul><ul><li>India 1,395,496,000 </li></ul><ul><li>USA 350,103,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Indonesia 263,746,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Pakistan 229,353,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Brazil 227,930,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Bang’desh 193,752,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Nigeria 190,287,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Mexico 129,381,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Russia 129,230,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Japan 124,819,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Ethiopia 118,354,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Philippines 109,084,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Viet Nam 104,343,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Congo, DR 103,224,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Egypt 101,092,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Iran 89,042,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Turkey 90,565,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Germany 81,967,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Thailand 72,635,000 </li></ul><ul><li>UK 63,601,000 </li></ul>2050 India 1,613,800,000 China 1,417,045,000 USA 403,932,000 Pakistan 335,195,000 Nigeria 289,083,000 Indonesia 288,110,000 Bang’desh 222,495,000 Brazil 218,512,000 Ethiopia 173,811,000 Congo, DR 147,512,000 Philippines 146,156,000 Egypt 129,533,000 Mexico 128,964,000 Russia 116,097,000 Viet Nam 111,666,000 Tanzania 109,450,000 Japan 101,659,000 Turkey 97,389,000 Iran 96,975,000 Uganda 91,271,000 Kenya 85,410,000
  • 4. Table 2: European Pop Decline to 2050
  • 5. Table 3: Oldest Countries   in 2000 in 2050 Country     15-59 60+   15-59 60+ Italy 61.7 24.1   46.2 42.3 Greece 61.5 23.4   46.2 40.7 Germany 61.2 23.2   49.5 38.1 Japan 62.1 23.2   45.2 42.3 Sweden 59.4 22.4   48.3 37.7 Belgium 60.6 22.1   50.3 35.5 Spain 63.5 21.8   44.5 44.1 Bulgaria 62.6 21.7   47.6 38.6 Switzerland 62.1 21.3   48.6 38.9 Latvia 61.7 20.9   47.5 37.5 Portugal 62.5 20.8   49.9 35.7 Austria 62.6 20.7   47.4 41.0 United Kingdom 60.4 20.6   51.1 34.0 Ukraine 61.6 20.5   49.0 38.1 France 60.7 20.5   51.3 32.7 Estonia 62.1 20.2   48.5 35.9 Croatia 61.8 20.2   53.0 30.8 Denmark 61.8 20.0   53.0 31.8 Finland 62.0 19.9   50.6 34.4 Hungary 63.3 19.7   49.4 36.2 Norway 60.7 19.6   51.7 32.3 Luxembourg 62.0 19.4   57.1 25.2 Slovenia 65.0 19.2   45.1 42.4 Belarus 62.4 18.9   49.6 35.8 Romania 62.9 18.8   50.0 34.2
  • 6. Table 4: Fastest Growing Countries 2000-2005 (Pop. Over 1 million)
  • 7. Table 5: Youngest Countries Country age groups 2000 in % 0-14 15-59 60+ Yemen 50.1 46.3 3.6 Niger 49.9 46.9 3.3 Uganda 49.2 47.0 3.8 Dem. Rep. of the Congo 48.8 46.7 4.5 Burkina Faso 48.7 46.5 4.8 Angola 48.2 47.3 4.5 Somalia 48.0 48.1 3.9 Burundi 47.6 48.1 4.3 Zambia 46.5 48.9 4.5 Chad 46.5 48.6 4.9 Palestinian Terr. 46.4 48.7 4.9 Benin 46.4 49.4 4.2 Malawi 46.3 49.0 4.6 Congo 46.3 48.7 5.1 Mali 46.1 48.1 5.7 Zimbabwe 45.2 50.1 4.7 Ethiopia 45.2 50.1 4.7 Nigeria 45.1 50.2 4.8 Tanzania 45.0 51.0 4.0 Solomon Islands 44.8 51.0 4.2 Madagascar 44.7 50.5 4.7 Senegal 44.3 51.5 4.2 Rwanda 44.3 51.5 4.2 Togo 44.3 50.9 4.9 Sierra Leone 44.2 51.0 4.8
  • 8. Percentage of Population under 15 years old, 2005 Red: 40+ Pink: 30-39 Light Blue: 20-29 Dark Blue: <20 Figure 1: Old and Young Regions
  • 9. Urban Agglomerations, 2015 Table 6:
  • 10. Table 7: Urbanization Projected Urban Populations, percentages of total population REGION 2005 2030 E. Africa 22 34 N. Africa 51 64 M. Africa 40 55 W. Africa 42 57 S. Africa 56 69 SE Asia 44 61 Europe 72 78
  • 11. Sources for Tables Tables 1 through 5: UN Population Division: World Population Prospects, 2008 Revision, Medium Growth Variant http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2008/wpp2008_text_tables.pdf Tables 6 and Table 7: UN Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, 2007 Revision http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wup2007/2007WUP_Highlights_web.pdf

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