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Getting off the Ground

                                 The Incredible Boom
                                 Why Not Here?
                                 The Nation
                                 Regions
                                 Outlook




Mercatus Capitol Hill Campus
March 15, 2012
Bruce Yandle
yandle@bellsouth.net
The Coming Global Boom
• In 2011, world GDP stood at $71 trillion dollars.
• If over the next 30 years, real GDP grows at an
  average rate of 2.5%, the long historic average, then
  the 2042 level of real GDP will double to $142 trillion
  dollars.
• There will be as much total GDP generated in those
  30 years as has been generated cumulatively over
  history.
• That’s a lot of stuff!
Will Population Growth
 Eliminate the Gain?
No!
• In 2011, the world population stood at 7 billion. Per
  capita GDP was $10,100, in 2011 dollars.

• The world 2040 population is estimated to reach 9.0
  billion.

• If GDP grows at 2.5% annually, then per capita GDP will
  stand at $15,777. $15,777 is lot a more than $10,100.
Will the U.S. Connect to the Global Engine?
Top 25 Countries, 2010 GDP Growth

                     18

                     16

                     14

                     12
Annual Growth Rate




                     10

                      8

                      6

                      4

                      2

                      0




                          International Monetary Fund
Top 25 Countries, 2010 GDP Growth

                     18

                     16

                     14

                     12
Annual Growth Rate




                     10

                      8

                      6

                      4

                      2

                      0




                          International Monetary Fund
Dr. Yandle's Quarterly Economic Update: March 2012
North Korea vs. South Korea


                         2009 Per Capita
                             Income
                            = $1,800




                         2009 Per Capita
                             Income
                            = $30,000
Wait a
  minute!
 What about
the good ole
   USA?
0
                                      100,000,000
                                                    150,000,000
                                                                                250,000,000
                                                                                                                 350,000,000




                         50,000,000
                                                                  200,000,000
                                                                                                   300,000,000
   United States
       Indonesia
            Brazil
        Pakistan
     Bangladesh
          Nigeria
           Russia
           Japan
          Mexico
      Philippines
         Vietnam
         Ethiopia
        Germany
            Egypt
           Turkey
              Iran
Congo (Kinshasa)
        Thailand
          France
 United Kingdom
             Italy
                                                                                                                                     China & India Omitted




           Burma
     South Africa
    Korea, South
                                                                                                                               2010 Population, Top 40 Countries,




            Spain
         Ukraine
       Colombia
           Sudan
                                                                                              people!




        Tanzania
       Argentina
           Kenya
          Poland
          Algeria
         Canada
         Uganda
                                                                                              We are third most
                                                                                              populous. Lots of




        Morocco
             Peru
              Iraq
Mean Household Income Earned by Top 60%, 1967 - 2010
                           (Constant 2010 Dollars)
60,000
                                                       $49,309 for 2010
         AND (still) able to
50,000   pay our bills.

40,000




30,000




20,000




10,000




    0
We are
young!
Dr. Yandle's Quarterly Economic Update: March 2012
Dr. Yandle's Quarterly Economic Update: March 2012
Top 25 Countries based on 2010 GDP

                          16,000,000


                          14,000,000


                          12,000,000
                                                                        HUGE
                                                                        ECONOMIC
Millions of PPP Dollars




                          10,000,000


                           8,000,000
                                                                        ENGINE
                           6,000,000


                           4,000,000


                           2,000,000


                                  0




World Bank
Producer of World Reserve Currency




   We print money, and the world takes it!
Alas, there are some problems.
Federal Deficit, 1960-2011
                        Millions
  $400,000


  $200,000


        $0


 -$200,000


 -$400,000


 -$600,000


 -$800,000


-$1,000,000


-$1,200,000


-$1,400,000


-$1,600,000
-6.0
                                                               -4.0
                                                                         -2.0




                                   -10.0
                                                 -8.0




-12.0
                                                                                            2.0
                                                                                                  4.0




                                                                                      0.0
                                                                               1970
                                                                               1971
                                                                               1972
                                                                               1973
                                                                               1974
                                                                               1975
                                                                               1976
                                                                                TQ
                                                                               1977
                                                                               1978
                                                                               1979
                                                                               1980
                                                                               1981
                                                                               1982
                                                                               1983
                                                                               1984
                                                                               1985
                                                                               1986
                                                                               1987
                                                                               1988
                                                                               1989
                                                                               1990
                                                                               1991
                                                                               1992
                                                                               1993
                                                                               1994
                                                                               1995
                                                                                                                    1970-2017 est.




                                                                               1996
                                                                               1997
                                                                               1998
                                                                               1999
                                                                               2000
                                                                               2001
        Since 1970, four years with a surplus.
                                                                               2002
                                                                                                        Total Federal Deficit as Percent of GDP,




                                                                               2003
                                                                               2004
                                                                               2005
                                                                               2006
                                                                               2007
                                                                               2008
                                                                               2009
                                                                               2010
                                                                               2011
                                                                      2012 estimate
                                                                      2013 estimate
                                                                      2014 estimate
                                                                      2015 estimate
                                                                      2016 estimate
                                                                      2017 estimate
22
Dr. Yandle's Quarterly Economic Update: March 2012
-5
                                   5




                               0
                                       10
                                            15
                                                 20
                                                      25
                     1970-01
                     1971-02
                     1972-03
                     1973-04
                     1974-05
                     1975-06
                     1976-07
                     1977-08
                     1978-09
                     1979-10
                     1980-11
                     1981-12
                     1983-01
                     1984-02
                     1985-03
                     1986-04
                     1987-05
                     1988-06
                     1989-07
                     1990-08
                     1991-09
                     1992-10
                     1993-11




Unemployment Rate
                     1994-12
                     1996-01
                     1997-02
                     1998-03
                     1999-04
                     2000-05
                     2001-06




Inflation Rate
                     2002-07
                     2003-08
                                                           U.S. Misery Index, 1970-2011




                     2004-09
                     2005-10
                     2006-11
                     2007-12
                     2009-01
                     2010-02
                     2011-03
0
              500
                    1000
                           1500
                                  2000
                                         2500
 1990M1
 1990M6
1990M11
 1991M4
 1991M9
 1992M2
 1992M7
1992M12
 1993M5
1993M10
 1994M3
 1994M8
 1995M1
 1995M6
1995M11
 1996M4
 1996M9
 1997M2
 1997M7
1997M12
 1998M5
1998M10
 1999M3
 1999M8
 2000M1
 2000M6
2000M11
 2001M4
 2001M9
 2002M2
                                                (Thousands, SA)




 2002M7
2002M12
 2003M5
2003M10
 2004M3
 2004M8
 2005M1
 2005M6
                                                                  U.S. Housing Starts, 1/1990 - 1/2012




2005M11
 2006M4
 2006M9
 2007M2
 2007M7
2007M12
 2008M5
2008M10
 2009M3
 2009M8
 2010M1
 2010M6
2010M11
 2011M4
 2011M9
U.S. Nonagricultural Employment, 1/2001 – 1/2012




Down 6.29 million from January 2008 peak.
Construction Employment, 2002 - 2012




Down 2.4 million from April 2006 peak.
U.S. Nonagricultural Employment, 1/2001 – 11/2011




Down 6.29 million from January 2008 peak.             2013   2014   2015
Unemployment
Rates, 2/2012, 25 and older.

12.9% Less than H.S.

8.3% High School Diploma

7.3% Associate Degree

4.2% Bachelors and higher.
Unemployment Rate & Educational Attainment
                                                      June, 2001 - 2011
                    18


                    16


                    14


                    12
Unemployment Rate




                    10


                     8


                     6


                     4


                     2


                     0
                         2001   2002     2003    2004         2005       2006       2007         2008   2009   2010   2011

                                                Less than H.S. Diploma     Bachelor Degree or Higher
How are we doing in
  manufacturing?




                Okay, if I could
                  just find
                  qualified
                  workers!
Job Openings versus Unemployed, 1/2000 - 12/2011
             18000                       (thousands, s.a.)

             16000


             14000


             12000
Unemployed




             10000


             8000


             6000


             4000


             2000


                0
                     0   1000        2000         3000         4000         5000   6000
                                              Job Openings
TOP 10 Manufacturing Economies: 1980 - 2010


 Billions
60
                  65
                            75
                                 80
                                      85
                                           90
                                                95




                       70
                                                     100
                                                           105
2000-01-01
2000-05-01
2000-09-01
2001-01-01
2001-05-01
2001-09-01
2002-01-01
2002-05-01
2002-09-01
2003-01-01
2003-05-01
2003-09-01
2004-01-01
2004-05-01
2004-09-01
2005-01-01
2005-05-01
2005-09-01
2006-01-01
2006-05-01
2006-09-01
                                                                     1/2000 - 12/2011




2007-01-01
2007-05-01
                                                                 U.S. Industrial Production,




2007-09-01
2008-01-01
2008-05-01
2008-09-01
2009-01-01
2009-05-01
2009-09-01
2010-01-01
2010-05-01
2010-09-01
2011-01-01
2011-05-01
2011-09-01
                                                                     2013
U.S. Employment in Manufacturing
                  1939 - 2011
                   (thousands)    Employment peaked in 1978.
20500                             Disintegration took off after that.


18500


16500

                                 Reduction
14500                            accelerates in
                                 recessions.

12500


10500


 8500


 6500


 4500
        1969
        1971
        1973
        1975
        1939
        1941
        1943
        1945
        1947
        1949
        1951
        1953
        1955
        1957
        1959
        1961
        1963
        1965
        1967




        1977
        1979
        1981
        1983
        1985
        1987
        1989
        1991
        1993
        1995
        1997
        1999
        2001
        2003
        2005
        2007
        2009
Dr. Yandle's Quarterly Economic Update: March 2012
0
         20
              40
                   60
                        80
                             100
                                   120
2000M1
2000M5
2000M9
2001M1
2001M5
2001M9
2002M1
2002M5
2002M9
2003M1
2003M5
2003M9
2004M1
2004M5
2004M9
2005M1
2005M5
2005M9
2006M1
2006M5
2006M9
                                                    2000 - 2011




2007M1
2007M5
2007M9
2008M1
2008M5
2008M9
                                         Auto and Light Vehicle Production




2009M1
2009M5
2009M9
2010M1
2010M5
2010M9
2011M1
2011M5
2011M9
Millions, SA




                   250000
                            300000
                                         350000
                                                    400000




          200000
                                                             450000
2000M1
2000M6
2000M11
2001M4
2001M9
2002M2
2002M7
2002M12
2003M5
2003M10
2004M3
2004M8
2005M1
2005M6
2005M11
2006M4
2006M9
2007M2
2007M7
2007M12
2008M5
2008M10
                                                                      U.S. Retail Sales & Food Service




2009M3
2009M8
2010M1
2010M6
2010M11
2011M4
2011M9
TWO KEY U.S. INDICATORS…
       A Year Ago!
42
The Two ISM Indicators
      Now!
How about the 50
states, sweetheart?
It’s a mixed bag!
????
Dr. Yandle's Quarterly Economic Update: March 2012
State Per Capita Real GDP Growth: 2007 - 2010
Real Annual Growth                     Real GDP Growth: 1Q2007 - 4Q2012
   Growth Rate
        4



        2



        0




                                                                                        2011Q1



                                                                                                 2011Q3
            2007Q1



                     2007Q3



                              2008Q1


                                        2008Q3



                                                 2009Q1



                                                          2009Q3



                                                                      2010Q1



                                                                               2010Q3




                                                                                                          2012Q1



                                                                                                                   2012Q3
       -2



       -4                                                          2011: 1.70%
                                                                   2012: 2.30%
                                                                   2013: 3.00%
       -6



       -8



      -10
2011-12 Outlook
•    GDP growth will range from 2.2% to 2.5% across 2012.
•    The U.S. unemployment rate will stay in 8.2% to 8.9% range.
•    Inflation will rise to 2.0%-3.0%, compared to 2011’s 2.5%.
•    Interest rates will rise, with a 100 basis point increase at the long end of the
     yield curve by the end of 2012.

    There are six hazards or ghosts from the past that may disturb the outlook.

•    Fear-driven increases in personal savings, which means rebuilding consumer
     net worth but further reductions in retail sales.
•    Rising energy prices.
•    A potential for massive inflation or credit market manipulation by the Fed to
     avoid it.
•    Government entanglement in the economy that regulates and otherwise limits
     economic freedom.
•    A huge deficit that must be dealt with. Taxes? Cut spending? Print money?
•    Gradual loss of reserve currency status
•    Election year craziness.

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Dr. Yandle's Quarterly Economic Update: March 2012

  • 1. Getting off the Ground The Incredible Boom Why Not Here? The Nation Regions Outlook Mercatus Capitol Hill Campus March 15, 2012 Bruce Yandle yandle@bellsouth.net
  • 2. The Coming Global Boom • In 2011, world GDP stood at $71 trillion dollars. • If over the next 30 years, real GDP grows at an average rate of 2.5%, the long historic average, then the 2042 level of real GDP will double to $142 trillion dollars. • There will be as much total GDP generated in those 30 years as has been generated cumulatively over history. • That’s a lot of stuff!
  • 3. Will Population Growth Eliminate the Gain?
  • 4. No! • In 2011, the world population stood at 7 billion. Per capita GDP was $10,100, in 2011 dollars. • The world 2040 population is estimated to reach 9.0 billion. • If GDP grows at 2.5% annually, then per capita GDP will stand at $15,777. $15,777 is lot a more than $10,100.
  • 5. Will the U.S. Connect to the Global Engine?
  • 6. Top 25 Countries, 2010 GDP Growth 18 16 14 12 Annual Growth Rate 10 8 6 4 2 0 International Monetary Fund
  • 7. Top 25 Countries, 2010 GDP Growth 18 16 14 12 Annual Growth Rate 10 8 6 4 2 0 International Monetary Fund
  • 9. North Korea vs. South Korea 2009 Per Capita Income = $1,800 2009 Per Capita Income = $30,000
  • 10. Wait a minute! What about the good ole USA?
  • 11. 0 100,000,000 150,000,000 250,000,000 350,000,000 50,000,000 200,000,000 300,000,000 United States Indonesia Brazil Pakistan Bangladesh Nigeria Russia Japan Mexico Philippines Vietnam Ethiopia Germany Egypt Turkey Iran Congo (Kinshasa) Thailand France United Kingdom Italy China & India Omitted Burma South Africa Korea, South 2010 Population, Top 40 Countries, Spain Ukraine Colombia Sudan people! Tanzania Argentina Kenya Poland Algeria Canada Uganda We are third most populous. Lots of Morocco Peru Iraq
  • 12. Mean Household Income Earned by Top 60%, 1967 - 2010 (Constant 2010 Dollars) 60,000 $49,309 for 2010 AND (still) able to 50,000 pay our bills. 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0
  • 16. Top 25 Countries based on 2010 GDP 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 HUGE ECONOMIC Millions of PPP Dollars 10,000,000 8,000,000 ENGINE 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 World Bank
  • 17. Producer of World Reserve Currency We print money, and the world takes it!
  • 18. Alas, there are some problems.
  • 19. Federal Deficit, 1960-2011 Millions $400,000 $200,000 $0 -$200,000 -$400,000 -$600,000 -$800,000 -$1,000,000 -$1,200,000 -$1,400,000 -$1,600,000
  • 20. -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 -10.0 -8.0 -12.0 2.0 4.0 0.0 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 TQ 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1970-2017 est. 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Since 1970, four years with a surplus. 2002 Total Federal Deficit as Percent of GDP, 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 estimate 2013 estimate 2014 estimate 2015 estimate 2016 estimate 2017 estimate
  • 21. 22
  • 23. -5 5 0 10 15 20 25 1970-01 1971-02 1972-03 1973-04 1974-05 1975-06 1976-07 1977-08 1978-09 1979-10 1980-11 1981-12 1983-01 1984-02 1985-03 1986-04 1987-05 1988-06 1989-07 1990-08 1991-09 1992-10 1993-11 Unemployment Rate 1994-12 1996-01 1997-02 1998-03 1999-04 2000-05 2001-06 Inflation Rate 2002-07 2003-08 U.S. Misery Index, 1970-2011 2004-09 2005-10 2006-11 2007-12 2009-01 2010-02 2011-03
  • 24. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1990M1 1990M6 1990M11 1991M4 1991M9 1992M2 1992M7 1992M12 1993M5 1993M10 1994M3 1994M8 1995M1 1995M6 1995M11 1996M4 1996M9 1997M2 1997M7 1997M12 1998M5 1998M10 1999M3 1999M8 2000M1 2000M6 2000M11 2001M4 2001M9 2002M2 (Thousands, SA) 2002M7 2002M12 2003M5 2003M10 2004M3 2004M8 2005M1 2005M6 U.S. Housing Starts, 1/1990 - 1/2012 2005M11 2006M4 2006M9 2007M2 2007M7 2007M12 2008M5 2008M10 2009M3 2009M8 2010M1 2010M6 2010M11 2011M4 2011M9
  • 25. U.S. Nonagricultural Employment, 1/2001 – 1/2012 Down 6.29 million from January 2008 peak.
  • 26. Construction Employment, 2002 - 2012 Down 2.4 million from April 2006 peak.
  • 27. U.S. Nonagricultural Employment, 1/2001 – 11/2011 Down 6.29 million from January 2008 peak. 2013 2014 2015
  • 28. Unemployment Rates, 2/2012, 25 and older. 12.9% Less than H.S. 8.3% High School Diploma 7.3% Associate Degree 4.2% Bachelors and higher.
  • 29. Unemployment Rate & Educational Attainment June, 2001 - 2011 18 16 14 12 Unemployment Rate 10 8 6 4 2 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Less than H.S. Diploma Bachelor Degree or Higher
  • 30. How are we doing in manufacturing? Okay, if I could just find qualified workers!
  • 31. Job Openings versus Unemployed, 1/2000 - 12/2011 18000 (thousands, s.a.) 16000 14000 12000 Unemployed 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Job Openings
  • 32. TOP 10 Manufacturing Economies: 1980 - 2010 Billions
  • 33. 60 65 75 80 85 90 95 70 100 105 2000-01-01 2000-05-01 2000-09-01 2001-01-01 2001-05-01 2001-09-01 2002-01-01 2002-05-01 2002-09-01 2003-01-01 2003-05-01 2003-09-01 2004-01-01 2004-05-01 2004-09-01 2005-01-01 2005-05-01 2005-09-01 2006-01-01 2006-05-01 2006-09-01 1/2000 - 12/2011 2007-01-01 2007-05-01 U.S. Industrial Production, 2007-09-01 2008-01-01 2008-05-01 2008-09-01 2009-01-01 2009-05-01 2009-09-01 2010-01-01 2010-05-01 2010-09-01 2011-01-01 2011-05-01 2011-09-01 2013
  • 34. U.S. Employment in Manufacturing 1939 - 2011 (thousands) Employment peaked in 1978. 20500 Disintegration took off after that. 18500 16500 Reduction 14500 accelerates in recessions. 12500 10500 8500 6500 4500 1969 1971 1973 1975 1939 1941 1943 1945 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
  • 36. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2000M1 2000M5 2000M9 2001M1 2001M5 2001M9 2002M1 2002M5 2002M9 2003M1 2003M5 2003M9 2004M1 2004M5 2004M9 2005M1 2005M5 2005M9 2006M1 2006M5 2006M9 2000 - 2011 2007M1 2007M5 2007M9 2008M1 2008M5 2008M9 Auto and Light Vehicle Production 2009M1 2009M5 2009M9 2010M1 2010M5 2010M9 2011M1 2011M5 2011M9
  • 37. Millions, SA 250000 300000 350000 400000 200000 450000 2000M1 2000M6 2000M11 2001M4 2001M9 2002M2 2002M7 2002M12 2003M5 2003M10 2004M3 2004M8 2005M1 2005M6 2005M11 2006M4 2006M9 2007M2 2007M7 2007M12 2008M5 2008M10 U.S. Retail Sales & Food Service 2009M3 2009M8 2010M1 2010M6 2010M11 2011M4 2011M9
  • 38. TWO KEY U.S. INDICATORS… A Year Ago!
  • 39. 42
  • 40. The Two ISM Indicators Now!
  • 41. How about the 50 states, sweetheart?
  • 42. It’s a mixed bag! ????
  • 44. State Per Capita Real GDP Growth: 2007 - 2010
  • 45. Real Annual Growth Real GDP Growth: 1Q2007 - 4Q2012 Growth Rate 4 2 0 2011Q1 2011Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 -2 -4 2011: 1.70% 2012: 2.30% 2013: 3.00% -6 -8 -10
  • 46. 2011-12 Outlook • GDP growth will range from 2.2% to 2.5% across 2012. • The U.S. unemployment rate will stay in 8.2% to 8.9% range. • Inflation will rise to 2.0%-3.0%, compared to 2011’s 2.5%. • Interest rates will rise, with a 100 basis point increase at the long end of the yield curve by the end of 2012. There are six hazards or ghosts from the past that may disturb the outlook. • Fear-driven increases in personal savings, which means rebuilding consumer net worth but further reductions in retail sales. • Rising energy prices. • A potential for massive inflation or credit market manipulation by the Fed to avoid it. • Government entanglement in the economy that regulates and otherwise limits economic freedom. • A huge deficit that must be dealt with. Taxes? Cut spending? Print money? • Gradual loss of reserve currency status • Election year craziness.