BLS Numbers on Jobs
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BLS Numbers on Jobs Presentation Transcript

  • 1. The Economy Today: U.S. Labor Market Keith Hall Senior Research Fellow Mercatus Center, George Mason University September 27, 2012
  • 2. Why its called the "Great Recession" Job Loss by Recession (millions) 6 4 1980/81 Recessions 2 1973 Recession 1990 Recession 2001 Recession 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 -2 -4 2007 Recession - 8.5 million -6 -8-10 Years Since Start of Recession-12 1
  • 3. Cost of Recession: Lost National Income (GDP vs Potential GDP, trillions of 2012$)$18$16 $3.7 Trillion in Lost National Income$14$12$10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2
  • 4. Cost of Recession: Lost Household Wealth (trillions of 2012$)$60$50 Lost Financial Net Worth: $5.5$40$30$20 Lost Homeowner Equity: $8.0$10 $0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010-$10 Government Balance Sheet Loss: $5.8-$20 3
  • 5. Economic Cost of Recession: Lost Income and Lost WealthLost Household Financial Net Worth: $5.5 trillion+ Lost Homeowner Housing Equity: $8.0 trillion+ Growth of Government Debt: $5.8 trillion Total Lost Wealth: $19.3 trillion +Lost National Income: $3.7 trillionTotal Economic Cost of Recession: $23.0 trillion (150% of GDP) 4
  • 6. Unemployment Rate is Misleading (% of labor force)12 12.5 million Unemployed (8.1%)10864 5.3 million Long Term Unemployed20 1960 1975 1990 2005 5
  • 7. Biggest Disengagement from Labor Force Ever (% of population)686664 Decline equal to 6.2 million (2.5%)62605856 1960 1975 1990 2005 6
  • 8. Labor Force by Age (percent of population)90 25 to 54 year olds (-1.5%)8070 20 to 24 year olds (-3.5%)60 Teenagers (-7.0%)5040 55+ year olds (+1.6%)3020 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 7
  • 9. Best Current Labor Market Indicator: Employment Ratio (% of population)6664626058 Decline equal to 11.3 million (4.6%)5654 1960 1975 1990 2005 8
  • 10. Weakest Economic Recovery Ever (annual GDP growth by recovery)98 7.876 5.8 5.8 Current 5.2 Recovery5 4.5 4.2 4.04 3.2 2.93 2.4 2.2210 1948 1953 1957 1960 1969 1973 1980 1981 1990 2001 2007 9
  • 11. How to read Employment Situation Release• BLS summary in first paragraph of release• Total Nonfarm Payroll Jobs (Summary Table B)• Unemployment Rate (Summary Table A)• Employment to Population Ratio (Summary Table A)• Employment by Selected Industry (Summary Table B)• Average Weekly Hours in Manufacturing (Table B-2)• Alternate Measures of Labor Underutilization (Table A-15)• Data from two different surveys • Payroll Survey (companies) – employment records of 40 million people, has industry detail • Household Survey – phone calls to 60,000 homes, has demographic and other labor market info 10