Commodities weekly, market tracking 04032014

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Commodities weekly, market tracking 04032014

  1. 1. Adamson Associates •Restocking are increasingly challenging base metals •Global macro risks are undermining demand side recoveries •Gold and platinum gain, silver left behind •Most metals are trading too high against their yearly targets 04Mar2014 | Commodities Weekly, Metals
  2. 2. Valuation sees zinc holding up a strong spot among base metals; Gold and Silver continue to be quite undervalued; forecasts see most metals will fall in 2014 Metals: Valuation Benchmark 10% 8% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -6% -3% -4% -1% -2% -8% -10% -12% -10% -10% Adamson Gold Silver Platinum Aluminium Copper Zinc Lead Iron Ore %over/ Year-end Avg undervaluation price forecast Current price -6% 1177 1330 -10% 1628 2133 -3% 1382 1452 -10% 1674 1724 -4% 6484 7098 8% 187 211 -2% 206 212 -1% 120 136
  3. 3. A softer greenback supports trading; however, most metals continue to perform according to fundamental realities; world demand recovery consistently facing risks Dollar Index: USD 82 81 81 80 80 79 Mar 03, 2014 Mar 02, 2014 Feb 28, 2014 Feb 27, 2014 Feb 26, 2014 Feb 25, 2014 Feb 24, 2014 Feb 23, 2014 Feb 21, 2014 Feb 20, 2014 Feb 19, 2014 Feb 18, 2014 Feb 17, 2014 Feb 16, 2014 Feb 14, 2014 Feb 13, 2014 Feb 12, 2014 Feb 11, 2014 Feb 10, 2014 Feb 09, 2014 Feb 07, 2014 Feb 06, 2014 Feb 05, 2014 Feb 04, 2014 Feb 03, 2014 Feb 02, 2014 Adamson
  4. 4. Transcript Aluminium • Aluminium has been steadily gaining against a backdrop of continued destocking, more cuts in production in ExChina provide a case for optimism; The metal is in solid contango • Stocks continue to reduce with falling production; open interests pick up signally long positions for the depressed metal • Current pricing puts aluminium in a severely undervalued position; we see the recoveries in pricing to fall back somewhat during 2014 • SHFE aluminium enjoyed some gains before falling again in February; stocks restarted to pile with more production, the threat of overcapacity returns • Supply tightness provided support for aluminium pricing in January, this disappeared by late February with the forward curve looking normal Copper • Copper mostly fell in February with worsening data in China, emerging Asia and a cold winter in the US; there is supply tightness which supports spot pricing in the near term • Stocks continued to fall, reflecting the continued recovery on the demand side, these fundamentals are however overshadowed by global macro factors; shorts dominated • Undervaluation continues for Copper, however, at a manageable level; Copper is trading above its yearly target in our view, with room to fall • Copper pricing plunged on the SHFE with macro performance; fundamentals are seeing restocking on the supply side, a sign of weakening demand against supply • There is supply side tightness in the market, as evident in the near-dated contracts, which supports spot pricing; Copper is restocking, a case for worry, and deflationary pressure
  5. 5. Cont. Zinc • Zinc continues to ride on very healthy fundamentals, demand recovery; there is supply side tightness in the neardated contracts, further supporting spot pricing • Destocking continues for Zinc, reflecting improving fundamentals for the metal; open interests grew, mostly in long positions • Zinc is somewhat overvalued at its current level, helped by dismal performances in other metals; Zinc pricing is a long way above its yearly target, with room for fall • Zinc gained before returning to early February levels; there is restocking, meaning that demand recovery is beginning to be challenged, production is getting ahead • There is no apparent supply side tightness to support spot pricing; restocking is beginning to challenge the fundamental scenarios of Zinc • warehouses Lead • Lead pricing followed Zinc performance, with relatively attractive fundamentals, the metal is holding its current pricing against macro headwinds; in contango • Destocking has paused, with further developments to occur in the coming weeks; open interests gained, reflecting a mixture of shorts and longs through the last two weeks • Lead is slightly undervalued; it is very close to the yearly forecast range, with some downward pressure down the line • SHFE lead pricing mostly fell during February, with disappointing PMI numbers painting a gloomy picture for the economy • The metal is in a normal forward curve on the SHFE; stocks have changed little
  6. 6. Cont. Gold • Gold continued to pick up with a falling dollar and higher inflation, Asian demand continues to be strong; near-term contracts are mostly flat, supporting spot pricing • Gold saw declining inventory in February; while open interests reflected strong long positions on the precious metal • Undervaluation eases further in February; however, we see gold pricing getting too ahead of itself, with room to fall in 2014 Silver • Silver did not benefit from any buying momentum in Gold; pricing sustained at around 21.5; the precious metal is in a solid contango • Inventories continued to gain for Silver; while open interests fell steadily, reflecting long liquidation • Pricing is still quite undervalued for silver, however, it is doing much better in February; its pricing is too high in our view, measuring against its yearly target in 2014
  7. 7. Cont. Platinum • Platinum spot continued to gain throughout February; the precious metal is in solid contango • Inventories gained in February; while open interests also picked up quite significantly, reflecting long positions • Platinum is slightly undervalued; its current pricing is not too far from its yearly target range, however, it is still too high Additional Data • Steel pricing fell on the SHFE, with softer construction, softer pricing and softer PMIs
  8. 8. Aluminium
  9. 9. Aluminium has been steadily gaining against a backdrop of continued destocking, more cuts in production in Ex-China provide a case for optimism; The metal is in solid contango Aluminium: Futures Curve (USD/t) Aluminium: Spot and 3M Price, USD/t 2,100 1,800 1765.5 2075 2063 2,050 2000 1,750 2,000 1995 1724 1,950 1923 1,700 1922 1,900 1,850 1,650 1,800 1,600 1,750 Spot 3M 1757 1765.5 1713 1724 1,700 1,550 1,650 1,600 1,500 Source: LME, Adamson 28/02/2014 28/01/2014 Source: LME, Adamson
  10. 10. Stocks continue to reduce with falling production; open interests pick up signally long positions for the depressed metal Aluminium: Stock and Cancelled Warrants, T Aluminium: Open Interest, Lots 5550000 2550000 800,000 774,645 780,000 5500000 2500000 760,000 749,306 2483300 740,000 5450000 729,806 2450000 720,000 711,942 5400000 2400000 5350000 700,000 680,000 2350000 5311300 5300000 660,000 640,000 2300000 5250000 620,000 5200000 2250000 Stocks 600,000 Cancelled Warrants Source: LME, Adamson Source: LME, Adamson
  11. 11. Current pricing puts aluminium in a severely undervalued position; we see the recoveries in pricing to fall back somewhat during 2014 Aluminium: Current Year Model Fundamental Aluminium: Valuation benchmark 50 1,720 19 1,700 0 -5 1,680 -50 -58 -47 1,660 -78 -100 -82 1,640 -110 -108 -150 1709 1,620 -166 1674 1,600 -200 -198 -204 -201 1,580 -250 1606 -239 1,560 2014M02 2013M12 2013M11 2013M10 2013M09 2013M08 2013M07 2013M06 2013M05 2013M04 2013M03 2013M02 2013M01 -300 1,540 Conservative Avg Less Conservative Adamson Adamson
  12. 12. SHFE aluminium enjoyed some gains before falling again in February; stocks restarted to pile with more production, the threat of overcapacity returns Aluminium: Spot and 3M Price, USD SHFE Aluminium: Spot and 3M Price, RMB 1,800 14,000 1765.5 13,800 1,750 1724 13,600 1,700 13,400 13350 1,650 13,200 13105 13,000 Spot 1,600 3M Spot 3M 1,550 12,800 12,600 1,500 Source: SHFE, Adamson Source: LME, Adamson
  13. 13. Supply tightness provided support for aluminium pricing in January, this disappeared by late February with the forward curve looking normal SHFE Aluminium: Futures Curve (USD/t) SHFE Aluminium: Stock, T 400,000 14,000 350,000 13,800 300,000 283574 13,600 250,000 13,400 200,000 13,200 150,000 13,000 100,000 12,800 50,000 12,600 0 1 2 3 28-Feb-14 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 0 20-Jan-14 Source: SHFE, Adamson Source: SHFE, Adamson
  14. 14. Copper
  15. 15. Copper mostly fell in February with worsening data in China, emerging Asia and a cold winter in the US; there is supply tightness which supports spot pricing in the near term Copper: Futures Curve (USD/t) Copper: Spot and 3M Price, USD 7,250 7,250 7,200 7215 7,200 7172 7,150 7,150 7,100 7098 7,100 7110 7097.5 7080 7,050 7045 7026 7,000 6970 7,050 6,950 6955 6935 7026 7,000 6,900 Spot 3M 6,850 6,950 6,800 6,750 6,900 28/01/2014 Source: LME, Adamson 28/02/2014 Source: LME, Adamson
  16. 16. Stocks continued to fall, reflecting the continued recovery on the demand side, these fundamentals are however overshadowed by global macro factors; shorts dominated Copper: Stock and Cancelled Warrants, T Copper: Open Interest, Lots 400000 300000 270,000 268,946 268,000 350000 250000 266,000 264,627 300000 276225 200000 250000 264,000 262,000 200000 150000 146625 260,000 258,687 258,000 150000 256,412 100000 256,000 100000 254,000 50000 50000 252,000 0 0 Stocks 250,000 Cancelled Warrants Source: LME, Adamson Source: LME, Adamson
  17. 17. Undervaluation continues for Copper, however, at a manageable level; Copper is trading above its yearly target in our view, with room to fall Copper: Current Year Model Fundamental Copper: Valuation benchmark 200 6,700 67 0 6,600 -94 6,500 -200 -173 -248 -271 6,400 -327 -316 -400 -372 -430 6621 6,300 -504 -600 6484 6,200 -747 -800 -731 6,1006221 -875 2014M02 2013M12 2013M11 2013M10 2013M09 2013M08 2013M07 2013M06 2013M05 2013M04 2013M03 2013M02 2013M01 -1,000 Adamson 6,000 Conservative Avg Less Conservative Adamson
  18. 18. Copper pricing plunged on the SHFE with macro performance; fundamentals are seeing restocking on the supply side, a sign of weakening demand against supply SHFE Copper: Spot and 3M Price, RMB Copper: Spot and 3M Price, USD 52,500 7,250 52,000 7,200 51,500 7,150 51,000 50,500 7,100 7098 50,000 49,500 49250 7,050 7026 49280 49,000 Spot 3M 7,000 Spot 3M 48,500 6,950 48,000 47,500 6,900 Source: SHFE, Adamson Source: LME, Adamson
  19. 19. There is supply side tightness in the market, as evident in the near-dated contracts, which supports spot pricing; Copper is restocking, a case for worry, and deflationary pressure SHFE Copper: Futures Curve (USD/t) SHFE Copper: Stock, T 250,000 52,500 52,000 200,000 51,500 51,000 50,500 150,000 50,000 49,500 100,000 49,000 48,500 50,000 48,000 47,500 0 1 2 3 28-Feb-14 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 0 20-Jan-14 Source: SHFE, Adamson Source: SHFE, Adamson
  20. 20. Zinc
  21. 21. Zinc continues to ride on very healthy fundamentals, demand recovery; there is supply side tightness in the neardated contracts, further supporting spot pricing Zinc: Futures Curve (USD/t) Zinc: Spot and 3M Price, USD 2,120 2,150 2110 2110 2,100 2,100 2088 2075 2,080 2088 2083 2075 2083 2078 2067 2,060 2,050 2,040 2,000 2,020 2010 2,000 1,950 Spot 3M 1,900 1997.5 1,980 1,960 1,940 1,850 28/01/2014 28/02/2014 Source: LME, Adamson Source: LME, Adamson
  22. 22. Destocking continues for Zinc, reflecting improving fundamentals for the metal; open interests grew, mostly in long positions Zinc: Stock and Cancelled Warrants, T Zinc: Open Interest, Lots 1000000 500000 900000 450000 298,000 800000 761725 400000 296,000 700000 350000 294,000 300,000 298,423 296,121 292,563 600000 300000 292,000 500000 250000 290,000 400000 200000 195100 288,000 300000 150000 286,000 200000 100000 284,000 100000 50000 282,000 0 280,000 0 Stocks 287,378 Cancelled Warrants Source: LME, Adamson Source: LME, Adamson
  23. 23. Zinc is somewhat overvalued at its current level, helped by dismal performances in other metals; Zinc pricing is a long way above its yearly target, with room for fall Zinc: Current Year Model Fundamental Zinc: Valuation benchmark 20 194 15.9 192 15 10.6 10 190 7.3 188 5 186 0 -1.3 -5 184 -0.1 -2.3 -2.8 -4.0 191 182 -5.7 -7.0 -10 187 180 178 -13.5 -13.2 -15 180 -17.8 2014M02 2013M12 2013M11 2013M10 2013M09 2013M08 2013M07 2013M06 2013M05 2013M04 2013M03 2013M02 2013M01 -20 176 174 Conservative Avg Less Conservative Adamson Adamson
  24. 24. Zinc gained before returning to early February levels; there is restocking, meaning that demand recovery is beginning to be challenged, production is getting ahead SHFE Zinc: Spot and 3M Price, RMB Zinc: Spot and 3M Price, USD 15,400 2,150 15,300 2110 2,100 2075 15,200 2,050 15135 15,100 2,000 15,000 14995 1,950 14,900 Spot 3M Spot 3M 1,900 14,800 14,700 1,850 Source: SHFE, Adamson Source: LME, Adamson
  25. 25. There is no apparent supply side tightness to support spot pricing; restocking is beginning to challenge the fundamental scenarios of Zinc SHFE Zinc: Futures Curve (USD/t) SHFE Zinc: Stock, T 15,500 270,000 15,400 265838 260,000 15,300 250,000 15,200 240,000 15,100 230,000 15,000 220,000 14,900 210,000 14,800 200,000 14,700 0 1 2 3 28-Feb-14 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 20-Jan-14 Source: SHFE, Adamson Source: SHFE, Adamson
  26. 26. Lead
  27. 27. Lead pricing followed Zinc performance, with relatively attractive fundamentals, the metal is holding its current pricing against macro headwinds; in contango Lead: Futures Curve (USD/t) Lead: Spot and 3M Price, USD 2,220 2,200 2,180 2,200 2188 2,160 2,180 2,140 2137 2,120 2115.5 2200 2190 2175 2170 2,160 2,140 2,100 2137 2127 2,120 2,080 2,060 2197 2115.5 2,100 Spot 3M 2,080 2,040 2,060 2,020 28/01/2014 28/02/2014 Source: LME, Adamson Source: LME, Adamson
  28. 28. Destocking has paused, with further developments to occur in the coming weeks; open interests gained, reflecting a mixture of shorts and longs through the last two weeks Lead: Stock and Cancelled Warrants, T Lead: Open Interest, Lots 50000 126,000 45000 220000 124,000 125,167 215000 40000 35000 33375 210000 122,000 121,129 120,000 30000 118,000 205000 25000 116,000 114,742 202225 20000 114,350 114,000 200000 15000 10000 112,000 195000 5000 0 190000 Stocks 110,000 108,000 Cancelled Warrants Source: LME, Adamson Source: LME, Adamson
  29. 29. Lead is slightly undervalued; it is very close to the yearly forecast range, with some downward pressure down the line Lead: Current Year Model Fundamental Lead: Valuation benchmark 212 30 25 24.4 210 19.6 20 208 15 206 10 6.8 204 5 1.8 202 0 210 -2.1 -5 200 -3.6 -4.0 -10 -9.5 -15 198 196 199 -14.5 -20 194 -18.5 2014M02 2013M12 2013M11 2013M10 2013M09 2013M08 2013M07 2013M06 2013M05 2013M04 2013M03 2013M02 2013M01 -25 -7.0 -8.1 206 -4.2 Adamson 192 Conservative Avg Less Conservative Adamson
  30. 30. SHFE lead pricing mostly fell during February, with disappointing PMI numbers painting a gloomy picture for the economy SHFE Lead: Spot and 3M Price, RMB Lead: Spot and 3M Price, USD 14,300 2,200 14,200 2,180 2,160 14,100 2,140 2137 14,000 13945 2,120 2115.5 13,900 2,100 13,800 13800 2,080 13,700 Spot 3M 2,060 13,600 Spot 3M 2,040 13,500 2,020 Source: SHFE, Adamson Source: LME, Adamson
  31. 31. The metal is in a normal forward curve on the SHFE; stocks have changed little SHFE Lead: Futures Curve (USD/t) SHFE Lead: Stock, T 14,600 120,000 14,400 100,000 86188 14,200 80,000 14,000 60,000 13,800 40,000 13,600 20,000 13,400 0 0 1 2 3 28-Feb-14 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 20-Jan-14 Source: SHFE, Adamson Source: SHFE, Adamson
  32. 32. Gold
  33. 33. Gold continued to pick up with a falling dollar and higher inflation, Asian demand continues to be strong; near-term contracts are mostly flat, supporting spot pricing Gold: Spot Price, USD Gold: Futures Curve (USD/oz) 1,500 1,350 1343.2 1,340 1,450 1,330 1,320 1,400 1,310 1,300 1,350 1,290 1,300 1,280 1,270 Spot 1,250 1,260 1,250 1,200 Nov-19 Jul-19 Mar-19 Nov-18 Jul-18 Mar-18 Nov-17 Jul-17 Mar-17 Nov-16 Jul-16 Mar-16 Nov-15 Jul-15 Mar-15 Nov-14 Jul-14 Mar-14 Source: CME, Adamson Source: LME, Adamson
  34. 34. Gold saw declining inventory in February; while open interests reflected strong long positions on the precious metal Gold: Inventories, Troy ounce Gold: Open interest, futures positions 8,000,000 420,000 415,426 410,959 7,800,000 7,764,151 7,777,823 7,809,244 410,000 400,000 390,535 7,600,000 390,000 7,463,277 383,021 7,400,000 370,000 7,200,000 382,739 379,550 380,000 7,141,392 376,973 368,279 7,143,618 360,000 7,000,000 350,000 6,800,000 340,000 Source: CME, Adamson Source: CME, Adamson
  35. 35. Undervaluation eases further in February; however, we see gold pricing getting too ahead of itself, with room to fall in 2014 Gold: Current Year Model Outlook Gold: Valuation Benchmark 1,220 0 -2 -50 1,200 -54 -77 -73 -100 1,180 -115 -150 1,160 -161 1177 -240 -231 -250 1202 1,140 -204 -193 -186 -200 -265 1,120 -300 1131 2014M02 2013M12 2013M11 2013M10 2013M09 2013M08 2013M06 2013M05 2013M04 2013M03 2013M02 2013M01 -322 2013M07 -350 1,100 Adamson 1,080 Conservative Avg Less Conservative Adamson
  36. 36. Silver
  37. 37. Silver did not benefit from any buying momentum in Gold; pricing sustained at around 21.5; the precious metal is in a solid contango Silver: Futures Curve (USD/oz) Silver: Spot Price, USD 23.00 22.5 22.0 21.5 21.508 22.50 21.0 22.00 20.5 20.0 19.5 21.50 19.0 18.5 Spot 21.00 18.0 17.5 20.50 Dec-18 Sep-18 Jun-18 Mar-18 Dec-17 Sep-17 Mar-17 Jun-17 Dec-16 Sep-16 Jun-16 Mar-16 Dec-15 Sep-15 Mar-15 Jun-15 Dec-14 Sep-14 Jun-14 Mar-14 Source: CME, Adamson Source: LME, Adamson
  38. 38. Inventories continued to gain for Silver; while open interests fell steadily, reflecting long liquidation Silver: Open interest, futures positions Silver: Inventories, Troy ounce 184,000,000 155,000 181,755,486 182,000,000 149,163 150,000 179,408,695 180,000,000 178,000,000 177,109,451 176,502,272 139,468 140,000 176,000,000 174,000,000 147,035 144,244 145,000 178,499,380 147,988 136,158 135,000 132,475 173,215,363 131,294 130,000 172,000,000 170,000,000 125,000 168,000,000 120,000 Source: CME, Adamson Source: CME, Adamson
  39. 39. Pricing is still quite undervalued for silver, however, it is doing much better in February; its pricing is too high in our view, measuring against its yearly target in 2014 Silver: Valuation Benchmark Silver: Current Year Model Fundamental 0 1,700 -17 -100 -157 -127 -200 1,650 -215 -300 -457 -500 1,600 -385 -438 -392 -400 1673 -548 -600 -598 1,550 1628 -700 -698 -725 -800 1,500 1539 -900 -912 -1000 2014M02 2013M12 2013M11 2013M10 2013M09 2013M08 2013M07 2013M06 2013M05 2013M04 2013M03 2013M02 2013M01 1,450 Conservative Avg Less Conservative Adamson Adamson
  40. 40. Platinum
  41. 41. Platinum spot continued to gain throughout February; the precious metal is in solid contango Platinum: Futures Curve (USD/t) Platinum: Spot Price, USD 1,452 1,460 1452 1,451 1,440 1,450 1,420 1,449 1,400 1,448 1,447 1,380 1,446 1,360 Spot 1,340 1,445 1,444 1,320 1,443 Apr-15 Mar-15 Feb-15 Jan-15 Dec-14 Nov-14 Oct-14 Sep-14 Aug-14 Jul-14 Jun-14 May-14 Apr-14 Mar-14 Source: CME, Adamson Source: LME, Adamson
  42. 42. Inventories gained in February; while open interests also picked up quite significantly, reflecting long positions Platinum: Inventories, Troy ounce Platinum: Open interest, futures positions 252,000 251,000 64,000 250,821 63,300 250,568 250,518 63,376 63,000 250,216 250,000 249,568 62,037 62,000 61,388 249,000 60,358 247,000 246,000 60,923 61,000 248,000 60,000 245,469 59,000 59,561 58,636 245,000 58,000 244,000 57,000 243,000 242,000 56,000 Source: CME, Adamson Source: CME, Adamson
  43. 43. Platinum is slightly undervalued; its current pricing is not too far from its yearly target range, however, it is still too high Platinum: Current Year Model Fundamental Platinum: Valuation benchmark 100 1,420 72 61 1,400 50 35 1,380 0 -9 -50 1,360 -42 -49 1,340 1413 -68 -80 -100 1,320 -131 -150 1,300 -133 1323 -152 -163 1,280 -181 2014M02 2013M12 2013M11 2013M10 2013M09 2013M08 2013M07 2013M06 2013M05 2013M04 2013M03 2013M02 2013M01 -200 1382 1,260 Conservative Avg Less Conservative Adamson Adamson
  44. 44. Additional Data
  45. 45. Steel pricing fell on the SHFE, with softer construction, softer pricing and softer PMIs SHFE Steel Rebar: Spot and 3M Price, RMB SHFE Steel Wire: Spot and 3M Price, RMB 3,600 3,550 3,550 3,500 3,500 3,450 3,450 3,400 3,400 3,350 3,350 3,300 Spot 3M 3,250 3,300 Spot 3M 3,250 3,200 3,200 Source: SHFE, Adamson Source: SHFE, Adamson
  46. 46. SHFE Aluminium: Open Interest, Lots SHFE Copper: Open Interest, Lots 350,000 600,000 580,000 300,000 560,000 250,000 540,000 200,000 520,000 500,000 150,000 480,000 100,000 460,000 50,000 440,000 0 420,000 Source: SHFE, Adamson Source: SHFE, Adamson
  47. 47. SHFE Zinc: Open Interest, Lots SHFE Gold: Open Interest, Lots 300,000 250,000 250,000 200,000 200,000 150,000 150,000 100,000 100,000 50,000 50,000 0 0 Source: SHFE, Adamson Source: SHFE, Adamson
  48. 48. DISCLAIMER This publication is produced by Adamson Associates Limited and/or its affiliates, and distributed by Adamson Associates Limited and/or its affiliates, except to the extent expressly provided herein. This publication and the contents hereof are intended for information purposes only, and may be subject to change without further notice. Any use, disclosure, distribution, dissemination, copying, printing or reliance on this publication for any other purpose without our prior consent or approval is strictly prohibited. Neither Adamson Associates Limited nor any of its respective parent, holding, subsidiaries or affiliates, nor any of its respective directors, officers, and employees, represent nor warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein or as to the existence of other facts which might be significant, and will not accept any responsibility or liability whatsoever for any use of or reliance upon this publication or any of the contents hereof. Neither this publication, nor any content hereof, constitute, or are to be constructed as, an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any of the securities or investments mentioned herein in any country or jurisdiction nor, unless expressly provided, any recommendation or investment opinion or advice. Any view, recommendation, opinion or advice expressed in this publication may not necessarily reflect those of Adamson Associates Limited, and/or its affiliates nor any of its respective directors, officers, and employees except where the publication states otherwise. This research report is not to be relied upon by any person in making any investment decision or otherwise advising with respect to, or dealing in, the securities mentioned, as it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person.

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