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Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB
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Mekong ARCC Protected Areas and Climate Change in LMB

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    • 1. Protected areas in farming ecosystems
    • 2. Protected areas by country No. Area of PAs PA as % of Ave size of important No. of PAs (km2) basin area PAs (km2) wetlandsCambodia 21 3,761 6.1 179 24Lao PDR 27 3,847 6.2 143 13Thailand 45 1,824 2.9 41 39Vietnam 21 383 0.6 18 18 Total 114 9,816 15.8 87
    • 3. Protected areas in the LMBAs at 2003 Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand Vietnam Cambodia 2010 hectaresPas as a % of land area 21% 21% 19% 8% Community forests 430 1380,978% of national PA system 1% 100% 2% 94%managed at local levels Community protected areas 84 93,000Forests in existing and 40% 39% 65% 26% Fisheries community conservation 469 683,734proposed PAs as a % oftotal forest area areas Proposed additions
    • 4. Important LMB wetlands by country No. important Country wetlands Cambodia 24 Laos 13 Thailand 39 Vietnam 18 Total 94
    • 5. LMB protected areas trendsDuring the 1990’s:• The number of PAs increased rapidly• The total PA coverage as a % of national land area increased rapidlyDecade to 2010:• Continued increase in nationally established PAs in Cambodia and Thailand• Significant increases in the number and coverage of locally established and management PAs in Cambodia, Lao PDR and Thailand• Around 20% of the Lower Mekong Basin – including all categories of national, provincial and local protected areas
    • 6. Protected areas and farming ecosystems• The natural forest estate is shrinking – an increasing % of remaining natural forest falls within PAs• They represent the last vestiges of the original plant and animal assemblages of the region• The heartland for NTFPs and wild relatives (for many the last resort)• More than 25% of the area within PAs is used for agriculture, 30% for grazing, 30% for fisheries and 100% for hunting, gathering and extraction• Protected areas and linked natural areas of forest and wetlands increasingly becoming an essential part of healthy productive farming ecosystems
    • 7. Protected areas and “farmers”• Most protected areas tend to fall into the least populated and less accessible locations – this is changing with..• increasing migration towards protected areas and regions of biodiversity wealth;• Populations within and around PAs are increasing along with natural resource demand• More than 85% of PAs have communities living within them• There is a direct correlation between population density and the intensity of use of protected areas.• 80% of protected areas are situated in regions of medium to high poverty incidence• Increasing dependence of poor on PAs as a food security safety net
    • 8. Populationdensity andprotectedareas – a rapidlychanging situation 8
    • 9. Poverty rateand protectedareas 9
    • 10. Protected areas as partof farming ecosystems
    • 11. Getting the farmingecosystem balance of activities and uses right
    • 12. Farming ecosystems with protected areasCommonly uses approaches:• Forest complexes (Thailand)• Biosphere reserves (Vietnam – eg Kien Giang)• Conservation landscapes (LMB – eg Eastern Plains Landscape including Mondulkiri)
    • 13. Thailandforestcomplexes
    • 14. Farmingecosystems with protected areas
    • 15. 1 Hot spot provinces and protected area clusters 3 2 • 8 hot spot provinces representing each of the 12 ecozones 4 • 8 protected area clusters and farming ecosystems1. Chiang Rai 62. Sakon Nakhon3. Khammoun 7 54. Champassak5. Mondolkiri6. Gia Lai7. Kampong Thom8. Kien Giang 8 15
    • 16. To 20 PAs by climate change threatRanking by % average temperature Ranking by % average temperatureChange in dry season Change in wet seasonPA name Country PA name Country1. Bi Dup Nui Ba Vietnam 1. Bi Dup Nui Ba Vietnam2. Phnom Prich WS Cambodia 2. Kon Ka Kinh Vietnam3. SNUOL WS Cambodia 3. Chu Yang Sin Vietnam4. Kon Ka Kinh Vietnam 4. Lomphat WS Cambodia5. Phnom Nam Lyr WS Cambodia 5. Chu Prong Vietnam6. Chu Yang Sin Vietnam 6. Dong Ampham Laos7. Nam Nung Vietnam 7. Phnom Prich WS Cambodia8. Ta Dung Vietnam 8. VIRACHEY NP Cambodia9. Mondulkiri BGCA Cambodia 9. Phnom Nam Lyr WS Cambodia10. Lomphat WS Cambodia 10. Ta Dung Vietnam11. VIRACHEY NP Cambodia 11. Mondulkiri BGCA Cambodia12. Phu Luang Laos 12. SNUOL WS Cambodia13. Muong Phang Vietnam 13. Mom Ray Vietnam14. Nam Ca Vietnam 14. Nam Nung Vietnam15. Phou Kateup Laos 15. Phu Luang Laos16. Dong Ampham Laos 16. Phou Kateup Laos17. Yok Don Vietnam 17. Xe Sap Laos18. Xe Khampho Laos 18. Phou Kathong Laos19. Phou Kathong Laos 19. Xe Khampho Laos20. Tinh Doi Vietnam 20. Yok Don Vietnam
    • 17. Mondulkiri protectedarea cluster and farming ecosystem
    • 18. Mondulkiri province• The province covers an area of 14,682 km2 about 8% of Cambodia’s land area• 70% of province in protected areas
    • 19. Shifting agricultural practices inside PA
    • 20. Commercial agriculture
    • 21. Road construction
    • 22. Forest clearance a long main road
    • 23. Illegal logging
    • 24. Economic Land Concession
    • 25. Economic Land Concession-Rubber plantation
    • 26. Communityfishing andaquaculture
    • 27. Livestock – local and exotic hybrid cattleand local buffalo
    • 28. Native and exotic pig species
    • 29. NTFP collection-resin tree
    • 30. Mode of resin transportation
    • 31. Hard resin product
    • 32. Population• Very low population density: approx. 70,000 4 pax/km2, compared to national average of 75 pax/km2• Rapid population growth 1998 – 60,000 2010 average growth rate of 5.4% compared with national average of around1.5% Popula on 50,000• Significant net in migration Ethnicity 40,000 Cham Other 7% 7% 30,000 Khmer 34% Phnong 52% 20,000 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
    • 33. Poverty incidence and number by Poverty district 25,000 50 45• At 37%, considerably higher than national 20,000 40 rate of around 22% 35• Declining poverty rate Sen Monoron (47% in 2004 to 37% 15,000 30 Pech Chreada in 2010) but 25 O Rang increasing absolute Koh Nhaek number of poor 10,000 20 Keo Seima Poverty rate 15 5,000 10 5 - 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
    • 34. Agriculture• Paddy – Main livelihood activity for 77% of people in the province (rice farming 60%) – Increasing area of paddy (+10% between 2005 – 2010), increasing output (+30% between 2005 – 2010) – But paddy production per capita only increased (from 0.54 to 0.57 t/capita/year), and paddy area per person declined (from 0.32 to 0.28 ha/capita) Consessions in Mondulkiri 2010• Swidden Rubber (mixed) - Shift from swidden cultivation to 2% cash crops• Commercial Other Other 2% - Large number of concessions in Total land area 9% 91% province Rubber 5%
    • 35. Non-paddy annual crops Plantation crops 12,000 8,000 White corn 2005 Soybean 7,000 10,000 Peanut Beans 6,000 2011 8,000 Black Sesame Area (Ha) 5,000 CassavaArea (ha) 6,000 Vegetables 4,000 3,000 4,000 2,000 2,000 1,000 0 0 Cashew Rubber Other 2005 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011
    • 36. Fisheries• Fisheries important source of protein (approx. 75% of animal protein), estimates suggest consumption of 17Kg/pax/year• Fish consumed directly or processed into fermented fish, Prahoc (fish paste) and fish sauce – important linkages to household processing.• Varies significantly over the province, with more fisherfolk in the Sre Pok catchment, in some areas with 79% of households in Koh Nhaek district involved in fishing, in Keo Seima district fisheries also important.• Aquaculture has increased but still remains uncommon
    • 37. Livestock Cattle and Buffalo• In general very low livestock densities compared to elsewhere in Cambodia and the LMB• No intensive livestock either large scale or small commercial units• Scavenging chickens, cattle and buffalo most important livestock Head• Cattle and buffalo important household asset and for draft
    • 38. NTFPs • NTFPs extremely important for livelihoods in Mundulkiri – especially for populations living in and around the protected areas which compose around 70% of the province NTFPs • E.g in MPF, resin tapping important with 100% of some communes involved in the production of resin. • Incomes per families for resin tapping were Inco on average US$340 pa – mainly used for me Most of this income was used to buy rice for the family ( evans 2004, Tola 2009). Food • Other NTFPs include bamboo, bamboo securit shoots, mushrooms, herbs and traditional medicines orchids, honey and wild meat. y
    • 39. Mondulkiri - average daily maximum temperature shift 60 Mean of maximum temperatures will increase Baseline Climate change from 27 – 30 °C 5060 Baseline Climate change Days of occurence per year Temperatures 4050 between 20 – 29 °C Temperatures between 29 – will occur less often 44°C will occur more oftenDays of occurence per year 3040 2030 Temperatures above 44 ° C will start 1020 Temperatures occurring below 20 °C will not occur 010 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Daily maximum temperature (Deg C)
    • 40. Mondulkiri – dry season rainfall shiftBaseline
    • 41. Mondulkiri – dry season rainfall shift2050
    • 42. Mondulkiri – dry season rainfall shift
    • 43. Mondulkiri climate change transect
    • 44. Dry season average daily max temp (Deg C) 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 0 10 20 30 40 50 Baseline 60 70 80 CC 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170Chainage (km) 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 daily maximum temperature 250 Mondulkiri - Dry season average 260 270 280 290 300 310 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Elevation (m)
    • 45. Dry season average daily max temp (Deg C) 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 0 10 20 30 40 50 Baseline 60 70 80 CC 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170Chainage (km) 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 daily maximum temperature 250 Mondulkiri - Dry season average 260 270 280 290 300 310 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Elevation (m)
    • 46. Mondulkiri - Annual average daily precipitation 2200 Baseline CC 1600 2100 1400Annual average daily precipitation (mm) 2000 1200 1900 1000 Elevation (m) 1800 1700 800 1600 600 1500 400 1400 1300 200 1200 0 0 10 30 50 60 80 20 40 70 90 100 130 150 170 180 200 220 240 250 270 290 300 110 120 140 160 190 210 230 260 280 310 Chainage (km)
    • 47. Mondulkiri - Annual average daily precipitation 2200 Baseline CC 1600 2100 1400Annual average daily precipitation (mm) 2000 1200 1900 1000 Elevation (m) 1800 1700 800 1600 600 1500 400 1400 1300 200 1200 0 0 10 30 50 60 80 20 40 70 90 100 130 150 170 180 200 220 240 250 270 290 300 110 120 140 160 190 210 230 260 280 310 Chainage (km)
    • 48. Mondulkiri protected area cluster - climate change impact and vulnerability assessment THREAT IMPACT Vulnerability Change and Sensitivity Exposureshift in Adaptive capacity Impact 1regular Written description of the threat Written explanation of what the impact is and reasons for scoreclimateTemperature (i) Annual average max temp increases by H2, VH VH Provisioning services VL5 VH 3 to 4 degrees (the new min increases to 3 4  Higher temps, especially during the dry season will increase ET and reduce the old average) (1) water availability for agriculture and domestic uses (ii) From April to May (end dry season) max  Some important species such as the resin trees and Cardamom are sensitive to temp increases by 17% (2) the projected high temp increases and populations would be reduced (iii) Early in wet season (June to Sept max temp increases by 16-18.5% (2) especially in already degraded habitats (iv) 40% more days exceeding 30degrees  Bamboo is the main construction material – it is resilient to extreme temps – (shift from 20% to 60%) (3) so unlikely to be affected – creating conditions for a successional change in (v) 27% more days exceeding 32 degrees ecosystems in disturbed areas and causing loss in biodiversity. Potential for (shift from 10 to 37%) (3) shift to climax bamboo grasslands in some areas. (vi) Areas experiencing increase in extreme Regulating services temps from 42 to 45degrees (3)  Higher temps during the dry season would cause drier soil surface layers (vii) During wet season max temp “comfort leading to potential increases in erosion and soil loss especially in degraded zone” is exceeding by up to 3 degrees areas every month (outside “comfort zone” 100%) (4)  Temp induced drier conditions on the forest floor could reduce natural water (viii) During dry season max temp comfort filtering and regulation functions zone is exceeded by 60% (5)  If surface litter is drier there is potential for losses in soil nutrient runoff and (ix) From April for 9 months in succession enrichment in surrounding areas the area is 100% outside the “comfort  We can expect some species and habitats to be lost from the system reducing zone” (5) biodiversity and population sizes 1. Provisioning services (x) Annual average min temp will increase  If temp increases induces biodiversity loss and 2. ecosystem shifts orservices forest Regulating by 2degrees (7) 3. Habitat services degradation, regulatory services will be reduced (xi) Dry season variation increases from 4. Cultural services  The impact on regulating services will be felt especially in the multiple use 12.5deg to 15deg but with min and max
    • 49. Mondulkiri PA cluster impact and vulnerability assessment Threat Impact VulnerabilityChange and shift in regular climate Adaptive capacity Exposure Sensitivity Impact1. Temperature H VH VH VL VH2. Precipitation VH H VH M VH3. Water H VH VH VL VH availabilityChange and shift in events4. Drought H VH VH VL VH5. Flooding H H H VL VH6. Flash floods VH VH H VL VH7. Storms H H H L H
    • 50. Drying out of trapaengs andother wetlands during the dry season 55
    • 51. Ecosystem shiftsEcological shifts in the Mondulkiri PA cluster:• Accelerating loss of populations & species (extreme temperatures, coupled with drying - a significant driver of biodiversity loss)• New ‘problem’ species entering communities• Reorganisation of plant and animal communities• Geographic range shifts eastward and some upwards (?) and range lossesA transformation of the ecosystems ICEM 2012 56
    • 52. Jeremy Carew-Reid,ICEM – International Centre for Environmental Management www.icem.com.au

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