Task 2: Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and AdaptationStudy for natural and agricultural            systems            M...
Aim• The aim of Task 2 is to undertake a climate change  impact and adaptation study on the water  resources, food securit...
Objectives1) identify vulnerabilities of rural poor and their environment to   climate change vis-à-vis water resources, f...
Phases, events & outputs                           threat                  vulnerability              adaptation          ...
Study technical teamSector/theme working groupsSector/theme                       Members1. Climate change, water         ...
Assessing climate change threats to agriculture and             subsistence livelihoods                                   ...
Agricultural systems and climate change continuum
CAM method             Source: ICEM, 2012
Key assessment concepts   Zones   • Climate change, Ecological, Agricultural   Shifts   • Geographic, Elevation, Seasonal ...
Climate change overlaid on “zones”Zones provide the common analytical framework for the study teamPurpose of zoning is to:...
Climate       change zones       Areas experiencing         similar climate         change2050
Bioregions
Agriculture zones
Climate change shiftsRegular climate1. Geographic shifts – change in area of suitability2. Elevation shifts (for highly re...
Geographic shift                         Shift in zone of suitability                                          for habitat...
2050Elevation shifts
Seasonal shifts     Kratie                                   Increase in flood magnitude                                  ...
Climate change “hot spots” – i.e. highly vulnerable areas   • High exposure:       significant climate change relative to...
Climate changeTHREATS
Climate and hydrological changesClimate changes                Hydrological changesRegular (daily and seasonal)   Regular ...
SYSTEM ASSETS ANDSENSITIVITY
System assetsTop commercial cropsVietnam                      Laos                   Thailand                 CambodiaRice...
Non cc drivers influencing agriculture trends•   future cropping patterns•   area irrigated,•   crop genetics,•   farm mec...
Sensitivity assessments: climate tolerancesOptimal growing conditions: Mean annual maximumtemperature
Optimal growing conditions: mean annual precipitation
Key issues the team needs to resolve• Deciding on the priority assets (i.e. species and  habitats)• Linking species to hab...
Assessment approachTASK 2 APPROACH
CAM - Basin wide VA assessment framework
Key assessment methodologies & tools                      CC modeling                      Basin zoning                   ...
Assessment approachCLIMATE & HYDROLOGICALMODELLING
Projections of future emissions                                            and global GHG concentrations                  ...
Approaches to modeling climate change: assessing future threat• CC modelling:   – allows for the               1. Projecti...
Steps in the CC approach:1 - Selection of appropriate IPCC scenarios                                                      ...
Step 2: selection of appropriate GCMs • Two earlier studies (Cao et al, 2009; Eastham et al, 2008)   reviewed the performa...
Steps 3 – downscaling projections to the Mekong BasinPurpose: reduce the geographical scope so that    resolution can be i...
Step 4 – Predicting future changes in the basin hydrologicalregime• VMod model• area-based distribution of  hydro-meteorol...
Step 5 – Predicting future changes in the flooding• MIKE-11• Uses Vmod to establish  boundary conditions• Divides the floo...
LAND SUITABILITY
Predicting future changes in land suitability                          Basin – crop suitability         basin            •...
Predicting future changes in land suitabilityLUSET – Land use suitability evaluation tool• Developed by IRRI• evaluates th...
Crop requirement: Terrain   (slope and drainage)                              Terrain suitability value   Land characteris...
Lowland rice
upland rice
cashewcashew
rubber
Coffee (coffea canephora)
cassava
Black pepper
Maize
CROP YIELD MODELLING
Predicting future changes in agricultural productivity AquaCrop • Crop productivity model   developed by FAO • Water drive...
Maize growth cycleAquaCrop• Assesses water  requirements at each  growth phase relative to  a reference norm and  quantifi...
yieldEstablishment |   Vegetative   |   Flowering | Formation | Ripening | Maturity                                       ...
ADAPTATION
Adaptation in zones, habitats and speciesAdaptation in vulnerable (hot spot):• agriculture zones• ecozones• habitats• spec...
Adaptation
Addressing the adaptation deficit
Mekong ARCC Climate Change Adaptation and Impact Study on Natural and Agricultural Systems
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Mekong ARCC Climate Change Adaptation and Impact Study on Natural and Agricultural Systems

  1. 1. Task 2: Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and AdaptationStudy for natural and agricultural systems May 2012, Vientiane
  2. 2. Aim• The aim of Task 2 is to undertake a climate change impact and adaptation study on the water resources, food security, livelihoods and biodiversity of the Mekong River Basin
  3. 3. Objectives1) identify vulnerabilities of rural poor and their environment to climate change vis-à-vis water resources, food security, livelihoods and biodiversity;2) provide a scientific evidence base for the selection of case study sites;3) identify adaptation strategies to inform development of community and ecosystem-based adaptation projects; and4) inform policy makers, development specialists and the global climate science community on the impacts of climate change on water resources, food security, livelihoods and biodiversity of the Mekong Basin.
  4. 4. Phases, events & outputs threat vulnerability adaptation 3. Future 5. Identify 2. Zoning and climate 4.Vulnerability1. Inception adaption 6. Reporting trend analysis conditions assessment options and threats Team Inception Team Vulnerability Team Final working workshop working workshop working workshop session session session Baseline assessment Basin & zone Adaptation FINAL & review of past vulnerability options by REPORT studies assessment Zones
  5. 5. Study technical teamSector/theme working groupsSector/theme Members1. Climate change, water Tarek Ketelsen (lead), Jorma Koponen, Mai Ky Vinh, Oliver Joffre resources, modelling and GIS2. Natural systems and Peter-John Meynell (lead), Nguyen Huu Thien, Sansanee biodiversity Choowaew, Jeremy Carew-Reid,3. Agriculture Oliver Joffre (lead), Dang Kieu Nhan, Bun Chantrea, Jorma Koponen4. Fisheries and aquaculture Rick Gregory (lead) Truong Hoanh Minh, Chavalit Vidthayanon, Meng Monyrak5. Livestock Rod Lefroy (remote participant)6. Socio-economics and John Sawdon (lead), Try Thuon, Sengmanichanh livelihoods Somchanmavong, Alex KennyNational working groupsSector/theme Members1. Cambodia Try Thuon (lead), Bun Chantrea, Meng Monyrak2. Lao PDR Sengmanichanh Somchanmavong (lead)3. Thailand Sansanee Choowaew (lead), Chavalit Vidthayanon4. Vietnam Nguyen Huu Thien (lead), Dang Kieu Nhan, Truong Hoanh Minh,
  6. 6. Assessing climate change threats to agriculture and subsistence livelihoods Climate changes Hydrological changes Agricultural Ecological zones zones Species “zones”Commercial Subsistence Aqua- Traditional Live- Crop wild NTFPs Wild fish Wildlife crops crops culture crops stock relatives catch Adaptation options
  7. 7. Agricultural systems and climate change continuum
  8. 8. CAM method Source: ICEM, 2012
  9. 9. Key assessment concepts Zones • Climate change, Ecological, Agricultural Shifts • Geographic, Elevation, Seasonal Hotspots • Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive capacity
  10. 10. Climate change overlaid on “zones”Zones provide the common analytical framework for the study teamPurpose of zoning is to:• Identify areas of the basin with common bio-physical and socio-economic characteristics• Observe “shifts” in the zones with climate changeThree types of zones: 1. Climate change zones – temperature, rainfall and hydrology 2. Agricultural zones – agricultural land uses and natural conditions 3. Ecological zones – natural habitat, species and genetic resources 10
  11. 11. Climate change zones Areas experiencing similar climate change2050
  12. 12. Bioregions
  13. 13. Agriculture zones
  14. 14. Climate change shiftsRegular climate1. Geographic shifts – change in area of suitability2. Elevation shifts (for highly restricted habitats and species) – change in (i) location and (ii) elevation3. Seasonal shifts – change in (i) yields, (ii) cropping patternsExtreme events4. Extreme event shifts  Micro – eg flash flooding and soil loss in uplands  Macro – eg saline intrusion in Delta; cyclone landfall
  15. 15. Geographic shift Shift in zone of suitability for habitat and crops Original extent of natural habitat Paddy rice and commercial crops Remaining natural habitat Subsistence crops and NTF pockets collection
  16. 16. 2050Elevation shifts
  17. 17. Seasonal shifts Kratie Increase in flood magnitude & volume Quicker onset of flood & shortening of transition season Increase in flood duration Source: ICEM, 2012
  18. 18. Climate change “hot spots” – i.e. highly vulnerable areas • High exposure:  significant climate change relative to base conditions  exposure to new climate/hydrological conditions • High sensitivity:  limited temperature and moisture tolerance range  degraded and/or under acute pressure  severely restricted geographic range  rare or threatened • Low adaptive capacity  Poor connectivity  Low diversity and tolerances  Homogenous systems
  19. 19. Climate changeTHREATS
  20. 20. Climate and hydrological changesClimate changes Hydrological changesRegular (daily and seasonal) Regular (daily and seasonal)  Increase in C02  Water availability  Change in temperature  Runoff and flow  Change in rainfall  Regular flooding  EvapotranspirationExtreme events  Saline intrusion  Storms  Sea level rise Rainfall Extreme events Wind  Flooding (fresh and salt water) Low pressure  Flash flooding  Drought  Storm surge
  21. 21. SYSTEM ASSETS ANDSENSITIVITY
  22. 22. System assetsTop commercial cropsVietnam Laos Thailand CambodiaRice, paddy Rice, paddy Rice, paddy Rice, paddyCoffee, green Maize Rubber CassavaCashew nuts, with shell Coffee, green Cassava MaizeCassava Tobacco, Sugar cane Bananas Fruit trees: Bananas and Traditional crop varieties Wild plants mangoes  Rice (more than 13,000  Cardamom, identified in Lao  Rattan and bamboo Vegetables: Sweet potatoes,  Eggplant (more than 3000  Orchids tomatoes, beans, chilli in Lao)  Mushrooms  Papaya Subsistence crops  Banana (centre of origin) Crop wild relatives  Lowland and upland rice  Mango (centre of origin)  Glutinous rice (centre of  Cassava  Pineapple origin  Maize  Water melon  Eggplant (centre of origin)  Peanuts  Passion fruits Centre of origin for: coconut palm, sugarcane, clove, nutmeg, black pepper, onion, cucumber
  23. 23. Non cc drivers influencing agriculture trends• future cropping patterns• area irrigated,• crop genetics,• farm mechanization,• farm employment,• fertilizer rates and pesticide use• Improved agronomic management• Infrastructure and accessibility
  24. 24. Sensitivity assessments: climate tolerancesOptimal growing conditions: Mean annual maximumtemperature
  25. 25. Optimal growing conditions: mean annual precipitation
  26. 26. Key issues the team needs to resolve• Deciding on the priority assets (i.e. species and habitats)• Linking species to habitats• Dealing with ecosystem services• Knowing enough about species and habitat tolerances to conduct the vulnerability assessment
  27. 27. Assessment approachTASK 2 APPROACH
  28. 28. CAM - Basin wide VA assessment framework
  29. 29. Key assessment methodologies & tools CC modeling Basin zoning GIS Analysis Basin land suitability Hotspot crop yield modeling
  30. 30. Assessment approachCLIMATE & HYDROLOGICALMODELLING
  31. 31. Projections of future emissions and global GHG concentrations IPCC EMISSION SCENARIOS A1 B1 A2 B2Modelling Projections of future atmospheric climate, atmospheric & ocean dynamics GCMs – GLOBAL CIRCULATION MODELSoptions BCCR- BCM2.0 FGOALS- G1.0 CCSM3 GFDL- CM2.0 CGCM3.1 (T47) GFDL- CM2.1 CGCM3.1 (T63) GISS- AOM CNRM- CM3 GISS-EH CSIRO - MK3.0 GISS-ER ECHMA5/ MPI-OM INM- CM3.0 ECHO-G IPSL-CM4 MICROC3. MICROC3.2 MRI- PCM UKMO- UKMO- 2 (hires) (medres) CGCM2.3. HADCM3 HADGEM 2 1 Downscaled projections of future climate at the basin-level CLIMATE DOWNSCALING DYNAMICAL STATISTICAL PATTERN (PRECIS) PRECIS Vietnam 2009 Mekong Basin 2009 Southeast (WeADAPT) (Cai et al, 2008) Asia 2003 (SEASTART) Prediction of future hydrological regime HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING VMOD VMOD MRC DSS VMOD SLURP CSIRO Songkhram Mekong Delta Mekong Mekong Mekong Mekong 2004 2008 Basin 2010 Basin 2011 Basin 2011* Basin 2009 (Aalto Uni & (Aalto Uni & (MRC & (Aalto Uni & (QUEST) (18 sub- SEASTART) SEASTART) IWMI) ICEM) (no Mekong 31 basins) floodplain)
  32. 32. Approaches to modeling climate change: assessing future threat• CC modelling: – allows for the 1. Projections of future emissions quantification of future climate change threats 2. Projections of future atmospheric and ocean dynamics – Is not perfect but is based on leading 3. Downscaling projections to the Mekong Basin thinking on climate science 4. Predicting future changes in the – Assesses the impact of basin hydrological regime changes in the global 5. Predicting future changes in the climate system to local Delta floodplain environment & project site areas of interest 32
  33. 33. Steps in the CC approach:1 - Selection of appropriate IPCC scenarios 33 Source: CSIRO, 2009
  34. 34. Step 2: selection of appropriate GCMs • Two earlier studies (Cao et al, 2009; Eastham et al, 2008) reviewed the performance of or used 17/24 IPCC AR4 GCMs for suitability to the Mekong region • 6 were chosen based on their ability to replicate daily historical temperature and rainfall data • In general, models perform better for temperature than precipitation Climate model CO2 Scenario Abbreviation Data period Model resolution (degrees) CCCMA_CGCM3.1 A1b, B1 ccA, ccB 1850-2300 3.75° x 3.75° CNRM_CM3 A1b, B1 cnA, cnB 1860-2299 2.8° x 2.8° GISS_AOM A1b, B1 giA, giB 1850-2100 3° x 4° MIROC3.2Hires A1b, B1 miA, miB 1900-2100 1.1° x 1.1° MPI_ECHAM5 A1b, B1 mpA, mpB 1860-2200 1.9° x 1.9° NCAR_CCSM3 A1b, B1 ncA, ncB 1870-2099 1.4° x 1.4° 34
  35. 35. Steps 3 – downscaling projections to the Mekong BasinPurpose: reduce the geographical scope so that resolution can be improved1. Statistical  Assumes local climate is conditioned by large- scale (global) climate but does not try to understand physical causality  GCM output is compared to observed information for a reference period to calculate period factors  Period factors are then used to adjust GCM time- series2. RCM (Regional Circulation Models)  most sophisticated way to downscale GCM data  Physically based  25-50km resolution  Computationally intensive  Requires detailed understanding of regional atmospheric and ocean processes3. Pattern-scaling  Uses high resolution observation data to scale GCM data to small areas or monitoring points  Suitable when there is extensive observation data  Cannot correct for statistical bias so should only be used to assess relative changes 35
  36. 36. Step 4 – Predicting future changes in the basin hydrologicalregime• VMod model• area-based distribution of hydro-meteorological impacts of climate change• Computes water balance for grid cells ~3kmx3km• Baseline 1981 - 2005• Can predict changes in: – Rainfall – Runoff – Flows – Infiltration – evapotranspiration 36
  37. 37. Step 5 – Predicting future changes in the flooding• MIKE-11• Uses Vmod to establish boundary conditions• Divides the floodplain into zones (>120 in the delta)• Calculates small area water balances – 25,900 water level points – 18,500 flow points• Quantifies the changes in depth and duration of flooding due to changes in upstream hydrology and sea level rise 37 Source: SIWRR, 2011
  38. 38. LAND SUITABILITY
  39. 39. Predicting future changes in land suitability Basin – crop suitability basin • Agro & eco zoning of basin characteristics • Historic suitability of basin for a range of commercial and subsistence crops • Suitability with climate change • Assessment of transitions and shifts in geographical and seasonal suitabilitytarget area Target areas – crop yields • Losses in crop yields within transition zones • Yield potential for new crops in transition zones
  40. 40. Predicting future changes in land suitabilityLUSET – Land use suitability evaluation tool• Developed by IRRI• evaluates the suitability of each land unit (grid cell) for a single type of land use type (single crop).• based on crop requirement, climate, terrain and soil characteristics.• Allows for assessing changes in temperature and rainfall before aggregating suitability
  41. 41. Crop requirement: Terrain (slope and drainage) Terrain suitability value Land characteristic: Terrain (slope and drainage) Crop requirement: Soil characteristics (pH, soiltexture, soil depth, base saturation) Soil characteristics Combined weighted Suitability class table and suitability value suitability value GIS layer Land characteristic: Soil characteristics (pH, soiltexture, soil depth, base saturation)Crop requirement: Water, temperature Land characteristic: Meteorological Water, temperature characteristics (rainfall, suitability value temperature) Land characteristic: Irrigation 41
  42. 42. Lowland rice
  43. 43. upland rice
  44. 44. cashewcashew
  45. 45. rubber
  46. 46. Coffee (coffea canephora)
  47. 47. cassava
  48. 48. Black pepper
  49. 49. Maize
  50. 50. CROP YIELD MODELLING
  51. 51. Predicting future changes in agricultural productivity AquaCrop • Crop productivity model developed by FAO • Water driven – quantifies the relationship between crop growth/biomass and crop transpiration • Changes in yield compared to reference/ideal conditions for a given crop • emphasizes the fundamental processes involved in crop productivity and the responses to water deficits, • Can also factor in CO2 concentrations 52 Source: FAO, 2010
  52. 52. Maize growth cycleAquaCrop• Assesses water requirements at each growth phase relative to a reference norm and quantifies changes in biomass => yield Source: FAO, 2010
  53. 53. yieldEstablishment | Vegetative | Flowering | Formation | Ripening | Maturity Reduction in max canopy cover Decline in canopy cover during productive phases (yield formation/ ripening) Delay in time to reach max canopy cover Source: FAO, 2010
  54. 54. ADAPTATION
  55. 55. Adaptation in zones, habitats and speciesAdaptation in vulnerable (hot spot):• agriculture zones• ecozones• habitats• species:  Industrial/commercial crops  Subsistence crops  Traditional crops  Crop wild relatives  NTFPs
  56. 56. Adaptation
  57. 57. Addressing the adaptation deficit
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