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Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study: Hotspot Identification
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Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study: Hotspot Identification

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At the Interim Results Workshop in Hanoi during October 31 - November 1, 2012, the Mekong ARCC Climate Study team presented the hotspot identification to support the preliminary findings of the Mekong ...

At the Interim Results Workshop in Hanoi during October 31 - November 1, 2012, the Mekong ARCC Climate Study team presented the hotspot identification to support the preliminary findings of the Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study for the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB).

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Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study: Hotspot Identification Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study: Hotspot Identification Presentation Transcript

  • Mekong ARCCTask 2 Climate change hotspot identification 31 October 2012 ICEM - International Centre for Environmental Management
  • Objectives1. Identify hot spots in the LMB to provide a scientific evidence base to guide selection of pilot project sites2. Provide focus for Task 2 impact and vulnerability assessments
  • Approach• Threat analysis approach to identify the most threatened areas at three different levels • Ecozones – important for ecosystems and the basis for up scaling our vulnerability assessments • Provinces – how most data in the region is aggregated so our primary unit of analysis • Catchments – important for fisheries and aquaculture 12 ecozones 88 provinces 104 catchments
  • Climate change threats addressed in Mekong ARCCChange and shift in regular climateTemperaturePrecipitationSoil water availability Focus on primary threats,Sea level temperature and precipitation, as the entryChange and shift in events points of climate changeDroughts into the basin climateFlooding regimeFlash floodingStorms
  • Temperature andprecipitation modelling results
  • Hotspot identification method % change in seasonal temperature and rainfall for each ecozone/province/catchment Maximum % change in seasonal temperature or rainfall for each ecozone/province/catchmentRank ecozone/province/catchment by maximum % change in seasonal temperature or rainfall Climate change hotspot ecozones/provinces/catchments Hotspot provinces selected for Mekong ARCCclimate change impact and vulnerability assessments
  • Change in seasonal temperature and rainfall for each ecozone/province/catchment Percentage change in Wet season Wet season Dry season Dry season average daily average daily average daily average daily Province Country temperature precipitation temperature precipitation Phayao THA 6.98 7.88 6.01 17.14 Ratanak Kiri KHM 13.67 10.19 9.35 1.16 Khammouan LAO 8.09 11.23 6.23 14.28 Gia Lai VNM 15.87 9.89 9.14 3.25
  • Maximum % change in seasonal rainfall or Province Country temperature Phayao THA 17.14 Ratanak Kiri KHM 13.67 Khammouan LAO 14.28 Gia Lai VNM 15.87Maximum change in seasonal temperature or rainfall for each ecozone/province/catchment
  • Maximum % change in seasonal Rank Province Country rainfall or temperature 1 Phayao THA 17.14 2 Gia Lai VNM 15.87 3 Khammouan LAO 14.28 4 Ratanak Kiri KHM 13.67Rank ecozone/province/catchment by maximum change in seasonal temperature or rainfall
  • Hotspot ecozones High elevation moist broadleaf forest - 151 Dry season (negative change in precipitation Wet season Dry season Annamites 14 Percemtage change in seasonal average daily Lower floodplain, wetland, lake (Pakse 13 Precipitation dominant change2 to Kratie) 12 Mid floodplain, wetland, lake (VTE to 113 Pakse) 10 3 4 5 2 High-elevation moist broadleaf forest - 8 64 North Indochina 9 9 9 10 7 1 precipitation 11 4 12 85 Low-elevation dry broadleaf forest 8 76 Mid-elevation dry broadleaf forest 6 Tonle Sap swamp forest and lower 37 5 floodplain8 Low-mid ele moist broadleaf forest 4 6 Upper floodplain wetland, lake (CS to 3 11 10 19 2 VTE) 5 12 210 Delta mangroves and coastal wetlands 7 111 Delta freshwater wetlands Temperature dominant change 012 Delta acidic swamp forest 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Absolute percentage change seasonal daily average maximum temperature (negative values are blank fill)
  • Hotspot ecozones High elevation moist broadleaf forest - 151 Dry season (negative change in precipitation Wet season Dry season Annamites 14 Percemtage change in seasonal average daily Lower floodplain, wetland, lake (Pakse 13 Precipitation dominant change2 to Kratie) 12 Mid floodplain, wetland, lake (VTE to 113 Pakse) 10 3 4 5 2 High-elevation moist broadleaf forest - 8 64 North Indochina 9 9 9 10 7 1 precipitation 11 4 12 85 Low-elevation dry broadleaf forest 8 76 Mid-elevation dry broadleaf forest 6 Tonle Sap swamp forest and lower 37 5 floodplain8 Low-mid ele moist broadleaf forest 4 6 Upper floodplain wetland, lake (CS to 3 11 10 19 2 VTE) 5 12 210 Delta mangroves and coastal wetlands 7 111 Delta freshwater wetlands Temperature dominant change 012 Delta acidic swamp forest 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Absolute percentage change seasonal daily average maximum temperature (negative values are blank fill)
  • Hotspot ecozones
  • Hotspot catchments 18 1 Wet season Dry season 17 3 2 Dry season (negative change in precipitation Percemtage change seasonal average daily precipitation 51 Hoaag Hua 16 6 4 7 82 Nam Hinboun 15 10 11 123 Nam Thon 14 15 144 Nam Mae Ing 135 Nam Kam 12 13 2 766 Huai Ho 11 5 10 117 Huai Thuai 8 10 1588 Huai Bang Haak 13 9 148 Huai Bang Sai 12 810 Nam Mang Ngai 4 711 Huai Bang I12 Nam Khop 613 Se San 514 Nam Mae Kok 4 1315 Huai Muk 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Absolute percentage change in seasonal daily average maximum temperature (negative values are blank fill)
  • Hotspot catchments 18 1 Wet season Dry season 17 3 2 Dry season (negative change in precipitation Percemtage change seasonal average daily precipitation 51 Hoaag Hua 16 6 4 7 82 Nam Hinboun 15 10 11 123 Nam Thon 14 15 144 Nam Mae Ing 135 Nam Kam 12 13 2 766 Huai Ho 11 5 10 117 Huai Thuai 8 10 1588 Huai Bang Haak 13 9 148 Huai Bang Sai 12 810 Nam Mang Ngai 4 711 Huai Bang I12 Nam Khop 613 Se San 514 Nam Mae Kok 4 1315 Huai Muk 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Absolute percentage change in seasonal daily average maximum temperature (negative values are blank fill)
  • Hotspot catchments
  • Hotspot provinces 18 Wet season Dry season Dry season (negative change in precipitation) 17 1. Phayao 2. Nakhon Phanom 16 3. Chiang MaiPercemtage change seasonal average daily precipitation 15 5. Mukdahan 7. Khammouan 14 9. Chiang Rai 13 12 2. Nakhon Phanom 11 7. Khammouan 5. Mukdahan 6. Lam Dong 10 10. Ratanak Kiri 4. Gia Lai 9 3. Chiang Mai 9. Chiang Rai 8. Kon Tum 8 1. Phayao 7 6 8. Kon Tum 5 4 3 4. Gia Lai 2 6. Lam Dong 1 10. Ratanak Kiri 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Absolute percentage change in seasonal daily average maximum temperature (negative values are blank fill)
  • Hotspot provinces 18 Wet season Dry season Dry season (negative change in precipitation) 17 1. Phayao 2. Nakhon Phanom 16 3. Chiang MaiPercemtage change seasonal average daily precipitation 15 5. Mukdahan 7. Khammouan 14 9. Chiang Rai 13 12 2. Nakhon Phanom 11 7. Khammouan 5. Mukdahan 6. Lam Dong 10 10. Ratanak Kiri 4. Gia Lai 9 3. Chiang Mai 9. Chiang Rai 8. Kon Tum 8 1. Phayao 7 6 8. Kon Tum 5 4 3 4. Gia Lai 2 6. Lam Dong 1 10. Ratanak Kiri 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Absolute percentage change in seasonal daily average maximum temperature (negative values are blank fill)
  • Hotspot provincesProvince Country1. Phayao THA2. Nakhon Phanom THA3. Chiang Mai THA4. Gia Lai VNM5. Mukdahan THA6. Lam Dong VNM7. Khammouan LAO8. Kon Tum VNM9. Chiang Rai THA10. Ratanak Kiri KHM11. Mondul Kiri KHM12. Attapu LAO13. Binh Phuoc VNM14. Bokeo LAO15. Dak Lak VNM
  • Focussing the Task 2 impact and vulnerabilityassessmentsCriteria for selecting provinces• High ranking in the province hotspot analysis• Representation of all ecozones• Representation of delta area• Representation of thematic sectors (fisheries, agriculture, livestock, natural systems and socio- economics)• Representation of all countries
  • Hotspot provinces selected for Mekong ARCC climate change impact and vulnerability assessments• Mondul Kiri - KHM• Gia Lai - VN• Chiang Rai - TH• Khammouan – LAO• Ken Giang - VN• Kampong Thom - KHM• Sakon Nakhon - TH• Stung Treng - KHM• Champasak - LAO• Ben Tre - VN• Xe Kong - LAO
  • Hotspot provinces selected for Mekong ARCC climate change impact and vulnerability assessments• Mondul Kiri - KHM• Gia Lai - VN• Chiang Rai - TH• Khammouan – LAO• Ken Giang - VN• Kampong Thom - KHM• Sakon Nakhon - TH• Stung Treng - KHM• Champasak - LAO• Ben Tre - VN• Xe Kong - LAO
  • Summary Scientific evidence base for hotspotsEcozone Province Catchment Hotspot provinces selected for climate change impact and vulnerability assessments
  • Hotspot provinces selected for Mekong ARCC climate change impact and vulnerability assessments• Mondul Kiri - KHM• Gia Lai - VN• Chiang Rai - TH• Khammouan – LAO• Ken Giang - VN• Kampong Thom - KHM• Sakon Nakhon - TH• Stung Treng - KHM• Champasak - LAO• Ben Tre - VN• Xe Kong - LAO
  • Hotspot provinces selected for Mekong ARCC climate change impact and vulnerability assessments• Mondul Kiri - KHM• Gia Lai - VN• Chiang Rai - TH• Khammouan – LAO• Ken Giang - VN• Kampong Thom - KHM• Sakon Nakhon - TH• Stung Treng - KHM• Champasak - LAO• Ben Tre - VN• Xe Kong - LAO
  • Hotspot provinces selected for Mekong ARCC climate change impact and vulnerability assessments• Mondul Kiri - KHM• Gia Lai - VN• Chiang Rai - TH• Khammouan – LAO• Ken Giang - VN• Kampong Thom - KHM• Sakon Nakhon - TH• Stung Treng - KHM• Champasak - LAO• Ben Tre - VN• Xe Kong - LAO
  • Hotspot provinces selected for Mekong ARCC climate change impact and vulnerability assessments• Mondul Kiri - KHM• Gia Lai - VN• Chiang Rai - TH• Khammouan – LAO• Ken Giang - VN• Kampong Thom - KHM• Sakon Nakhon - TH• Stung Treng - KHM• Champasak - LAO• Ben Tre - VN• Xe Kong - LAO