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Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
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Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB

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  • The LMB countries are undergoing dramatic, structural and historical socio-economic change, economic growth and industrialization, population growth and movementAll LMB countries are going through a rapid demographic transition, that is to say they are seeing seeing falling fertility rates, population growth which is expected to decline steadily in the coming decades – we can see from UN median estimates that population in LMB is expected to peak in about 2045 at about 206 million – 30 million more than today. Decision to migrate a complex one (as Koos pointed out). Within this urban-rural migration means urban areas are growing rapidly throughout the region and in some locations populations are decliningTrends in increased rural-rural migration and migration within the region .
  • Rising global and regional food prices and increasing volatilityPopulationPoor harvests in big exporters (US, Australia, Russia, Eastern Europe and West central Asia)Land use for other commodities (Bio-fuels, etc.)Change in dietsShould be borne in mind, agricultural commodities are traded, so the impacts of global climatic events and global climate change in general may effect food security….in the basin – indeed may have a large influence on food security in the basin
  • Related to these increasing demands for food and agricultural commodities and rural –urban migration, is the trend towards increasing commercialisation in agriculture.We are seeing a move from labour intensive small holdings, with relatively low levels of capital intensity trough a process of land consolidation and increased capital intensity towards a high-input high-output agricultural systems. Including increasing mechanization reduced labour intensity…The Mekong delta is a paradigm example of this shift, we are seeing increased mechanization, land consolidation and increased size of agricultural holdings, lower levels of agricultural employment and higher landlessness and declining rural populations……
  • An indication of this shift to greater commercial production is increasing value of exports of agricultural communities.Dramatic increases in recent years….
  • Another indicator of the growing importance of agricultural commercialization, is the increase in agricultural land concessions in Laos and Cambodia. Here we have a map of Cambodia with the economic land concessions in yellow.It should be noted that figures for this are changing all the time as concessions are granted and as agreements lapse. So the estimates here might be different from other figures out there.The overall point is that these concessions are very significant and are an important part of agricultural commercialization.
  • Bringing this back to the impact on rural populations, this diagram shows the processes at work in a simplified wayThe key is rural livelihoods are subject to pressures, or migration push factors from increasing population in some areas, reduction in employment opportunities, and reduction in access to land due to land consolidation, conversion of land for other uses (infrastructure and urban development), and granting of land concessions in Cambodia and Lao PDR.As pointed out yesterday important migration pull factor of increased employment opportunities in urban areas.The nett result is a decline in livelihood opportunities in many rural areas – and population movement as a responseIf individuals have the requisite skills they are able to access urban labour marketsIf households have limited skills and are unable to access urban labour markets they tend to move to areas where they can make use of open access natural resources, frequently protected areas.E.g in the MKD landless Khmer families moving from central delta provinces to sparely populated areas of Ca Mau, similar patterns in Cambodia.
  • About 70% of households depend directly upon natural systems through agriculture, fisheries, livestock and NTFPs in the basin.That means about 44 million people currently in the basinDespite population movement – significant populations will remain in rural areas of the basin for decades, most of the poor and the most acutely poor in LMB countries will continue to live in rural areasIn short, despite the dynamism of the LMB region and rural livelihoods will continue to be of critical importance both for food supply and poverty reduction in the region. Therefore, within the time horizon of our study and despite agricultural commercialization, urban growth and population movement, rural livelihoods will remain important.
  • Chiang Mai, NE Thailand, Central Highlands of Viet Nam, some areas around Ton Le Sap and the flood plain, from Kratie southward all have relatively high population densities. With the exception of the central highlands upland areas tend to have low population densities Population densities in rural areas of NE Thailand and MKD are likely to be significantly overestimated due rural – urban migration in these areas and issues with enumerating migrants
  • Impressive poverty reduction across the region poverty rates remain highBut Chronic poverty remains an issueIf we look at the proportion of the population in LMB countries below 2.5 dollars a day – and therefore vulnerable to poverty – more than half the population falls below this threshold in Camboida, Laos and Viet Nam.
  • Food security indicators tell a similar storyHere we have two different measures of infant malnutritionDespite declines, malnutrition remains a problem – rates of decline also seemed to have slowed in recent years
  • This is based on a food security survey conducted in Loas – but similar patterns are repeated across many rural areas of Cambodia and to a lesser extent Viet Nam and Thailand where remittances are likely to be much more significantFood sources diverse for all groups, including own production, some sources are more important for different groups for example farmers rely more on their own production, and traders rely heavily on traded sources for food. Highest incidence of food insecurity is amongst the group defined here as unskilled labour – with small or no landholdings But the highest absolute number of food insecure households is amongst farmers - which make up the largest proportion of the population in the basin.
  • Fresh water fish consumption in LMB highest in the world according World FishOne of the largest inland capture fisheries in the worldThis is reflected in the importance of fish consumption for food security, and in particular as a source of fats and animal protein.Fish consumption is most important in Cambodia – especially around Ton Le Sap but in other areas too.
  • The problem the socio-economic analysis was faced with was how to interpret the ecological zones such that they related to the geospatial distribution of livelihood activities. Livelihoods are extremely varied within the basin, however, we identified 5 livelihood zones linked to typical agricultural and natural resource use patterns essentially representing an aggregation of the ecozones.We identified deltaic areas, flood plains, lowland and plateau areas, and upland areasFor the purposes of our analysis and we also divided upland areas into intensively farmed uplands and forested uplands using population density, resulting in an additional livelihood zone dividing the LMB into 5 zones in total.
  • 1. To identify target provinces to inform our more general conclusions we identified five provinces that contained CC hotspot areas and were representative of the range of livelihood zones across the countries in which they occur.2. Our analysis is focusing on the livelihood zones in the provinces indicated – to identify how climate change threats are realized in terms of livelihoods.3. Now I will pass over to Paul, to talk about how we have gone about the CC vulnerability assessment in a little more detail.
  • 1. Most of the increase in population is away from provincial centres. Caused by migration (mainly Khmer) to rural areas in search of natural resources.
  • Why is health important in terms of livelihoods? Inadequate health limits the capacity of individuals to engage in livelihood activities. A farmer spends less time in the fields if they are sick, a wild honey collector is unable to walk to all hives without the energy to walk. Moreover, inadequete health limits the productive use of food. What do we mean by infrastcruture? Here we are talking about physcial, stationary infrastcruture that enables households and communities to pursue and benefit from livelihood activities. Roads to allow the purchase and sale of products at district markets, grain storage facilities to allow rice to be stored and consumed before the next harvest.
  • Before discussing the results of our impact assessment for Mondulkiri, I think it is useful to position our analysis in relation to other sectors. There are two things to note here, firstly the ultimate purpose of the sectoral vulnerability assessments is really to understand how communities are affected by climate change through changes in these sectors. So part of the socio-economic team’s task is to interprete the sectoral impacts from a livelihoods perspective. Secondly, these major sectors do not capture all of the components of livelihoods. Two key aspects are missing: health and infrastrcuture. So before we can interprete and aggregate all of these impacts together, we first need to understand how health and infrastructure will be affected by climate change. I will concentrate on this initial step for most of this presentation, and provide some comments on the subsequent task at the end.
  • Why is health important in terms of livelihoods? Inadequate health limits the capacity of individuals to engage in livelihood activities. A farmer spends less time in the fields if they are sick, a wild honey collector is unable to walk to all hives without the energy to walk. Moreover, inadequete health limits the productive use of food. What do we mean by infrastcruture? Here we are talking about physcial, stationary infrastcruture that enables households and communities to pursue and benefit from livelihood activities. Roads to allow the purchase and sale of products at district markets, grain storage facilities to allow rice to be stored and consumed before the next harvest.
  • Criteria which we have been using for these concepts can be seen here and this really brings home the distinction between sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The sensitivity criteria is picking up the state of these key indicators which magnify the impact of climate change.
  • 4 key vulnerabilities we have identified. For the province as a whole malaria is a key problem, 2/3 of households villages in and around MPF reported cases of malaria. Dengue fever is an issue.
  • 4 key vulnerabilities we have identified. For the province as a whole malaria is a key problem, 2/3 of households villages in and around MPF reported cases of malaria. Dengue fever is an issue. Director General Thuc.
  • Around half of all households use surface water from rivers and streams as their primary water source.Most people don’t have access to adaequete sanitation. For KohNeak as a whole, 626 people per improved sanitation source. Diaorrohea is a commonly reported di
  • Why is health important in terms of livelihoods? Inadequate health limits the capacity of individuals to engage in livelihood activities. A farmer spends less time in the fields if they are sick, a wild honey collector is unable to walk to all hives without the energy to walk. Moreover, inadequete health limits the productive use of food. What do we mean by infrastcruture? Here we are talking about physcial, stationary infrastcruture that enables households and communities to pursue and benefit from livelihood activities. Roads to allow the purchase and sale of products at district markets, grain storage facilities to allow rice to be stored and consumed before the next harvest.
  • Transcript

    • 1. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC SYSTEMS IN THE LOWER MEKONG BASIN John Sawdon and Paul Wyrwoll, International Centre for Environmental Management Hanoi, 1st November 2012
    • 2. Contents• Part 1: Key trends, drives and overall approach – Overview of socio-economic trends and drivers in the LMB: food and commodity price, demographic change, agricultural commercialization, continuing importance of agricultural livelihoods – Rural poverty livelihoods and productive sectors – Analytical approach understanding livelihoods in the basin• Part 2: Assessing climate vulnerability in Mondulkiri – Linking livelihoods to productive sectors – Key health and infrastructure impacts in Mondulkiri – Linking productive sectors through livelihoods – Concluding remarks
    • 3. PART 1: KEY TRENDS, DRIVERS ANDOVERALL APPROACH
    • 4. Key demographic trends• The countries of the LMB are under-going dramatic socio 206 million economic change 177 million• This is having dramatic demographic consequences – Rapidly falling fertility rates – Rural-urban migration (falling rural populations in the Mekong Delta and NE Thailand) – Rural-rural migration (Cambodia and Lao PDR) – Intra regional migration
    • 5. Food and commodity pricePopulation growth, urbanization, higher living standards, productivity changes in bigagricultural exporters in Asia and globally are driving large increases in the demand foragricultural commodities Source: FAO 2012, WDI 2012
    • 6. Increasing importance of commercial agriculture Industrialization, urbanization, commodity trade Small holdings Commercial Labour Increased intensive Land consolidation capital farms and intensity plantations Low capital intensitySubsistence Intermediate Commercial
    • 7. Increased value of trade in agricultural commodities Source: WDI 2012
    • 8. Land concessions Cambodia • 57 concessions granted by 2007 of 500,000 Ha in total • Up to 85 concessions in 2010 of 957,000 Ha in total (could be as high as 2 million Ha) Lao PDR • 330,000 ha granted ( around 25% of agricultural land) Source: IIED 2012Source: MRC 2010
    • 9. Response to socio-economic change in rural areas Population pressureOpen access Employment natural Rural population in urban resources areas Reduction in Reduction in access to employment land through: opportunities in 1. Land conversion to rural areas other uses 2. Land consolidation 3. Granting of land concessions
    • 10. Small-holder and subsistence production isessential for rural livelihoods – and will be for decades to come.
    • 11. POVERTY, LIVELIHOODS AND FOODSECURITY
    • 12. Population in Proportion of Proportion of LMB (million) LMB national population population (%) (%)Cambodia 12.4 20 88Lao PDR 6.2 10 >95Thailand 23.3 36 34Viet Nam 21.7 34 25Total LMB 63.5 100 37
    • 13. Poverty• Rates of severe poverty (<$1.25) have declined significantly• Significant proportions of the population remain below the $2 threshold• Still greater number remain vulnerable to poverty: - Cambodia – approx. 65% < $2.5 - Lao PDR – approx. 78% < $2.5 - Viet Nam - approx. 58% < $2.5
    • 14. Continuing chronic food insecurity Weight for age Height for age Cambodia 70 70 Lao PDR Thailand 60 60 Viet Nam 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 Malnutrition rate in under-fives in LMB countriesSource: WDI 2012
    • 15. Food source by occupation in Lao PDR 2007 Highest incidence of food insecurity Highest number of food insecure households Source: WFP 2007
    • 16. Importance of fisheries: Cambodia
    • 17. ANALYTICAL APPROACH TOLIVELIHOODS AND FOOD SECURITY
    • 18. Livelihood zonesEcological zones Population
    • 19. Livelihood zones Selected provinces Flood plain Lowland/ Intensive Forested plateau Upland Upland Province Delta ✖ ✖ Mondulkiri - - - ✖ ✖ ✖ Khammouan - - ✖ ✖ - ✖ Chiang Rai - ✖ ✖ ✖ Gai Lai - - CC Hotspots Kien Giang ✖ - - - -
    • 20. PART 2: MONDULKIRI IMPACT ANDVULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
    • 21. Mondulkiri province
    • 22. Socio-economic overview of Mondulkiri• Population: ~ 47,000 (2004); ~ 62,000 (2010)• Poverty: Poorest province in Cambodia: 37% by national standards• Education: 10 lower secondary schools; 1 high school• Ethnicity: Phnong (52%); Khmer (35%); Other (13%)• Food security: Classified as chronically food insecure by World Food Programme in 2009• Livelihoods: – Mix of subsistence and commercial activities – Reliance on natural resources – Multiple activities
    • 23. Household livelihood activities in communities adjacent to Mondulkiri Protected Forest 100 engaged in livelihood ac vi y Percentage of households 80 60 40 20 0 Agriculture Fisheries NTFPs LivestockSource: WWF (2007)
    • 24. Agricultur NTFPs eFisheries Livelihoods Livestock Health Infrastructure
    • 25. Vulnerability and impact assessment (CAM):Health and Infrastructure• Inadequate health limits the capacity of individuals to engage in livelihood activities• Infrastructure: Physical, stationary infrastructure such as roads, bridges, housing, irrigation infrastructure, and grain storage• Infrastructure enables households and communities to pursue and benefit from livelihood activities
    • 26. Socio-economic CAM criteriaExposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacityLocation of people/assets Human health Assets (e.g. tenure, housing, livestock, motorised transport)Severity of threat Strength of key infrastructure Education and skillsDuration of threat Demographic composition Physical infrastructure (e.g. roads, health centres, electricity) Poverty Access to markets (e.g. credit markets, proximity to market-place) Food security
    • 27. Sensitivity• Poor health: High infant mortality and malnutrition; high rate insect- borne disease; high rate of water- borne disease from poor hygiene and water access• Weak infrastructure: Traditional housing; unsealed roads• Demographic composition: High proportion of ethnic minorities; ~50% of population < 17 years• High poverty• Highly food insecure
    • 28. Adaptive capacity• Assets: rural land tenure often informal; livestock key assets (i.e. cattle); ~1 motorbike per 10 people• Education and skills: Low level (non- traditional)• Physical infrastructure: 1 sealed road; poor access to electricity; 1 major health centre: 66% births without modern medical care• Access to markets: Poor have no or limited access to credit; communities have access to district markets
    • 29. Community perceptions of past extreme events inMondulkiri districts (2009) – Frequent and SignificantDistricts Droughts Reported flash floodsORang 1967, 1996, 2004, 2005, 1996, 1997, 2007 2007, 2008Keo Seima 1998, 1999, 2005, 2006, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2008 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008Pechreada 1991, 1994, 2003, 2004, 1993, 1994, 2007, 2008 2005, 2006, 2008Koh Nheak 1996, 1998, 1999, 2002, 1973, 1980, 1983, 1992, 1993, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 1994, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008 2007, 2008
    • 30. RESULTS
    • 31. Very High Vulnerability – Health (Uplands and Lowlands)Threat: FloodingImpact: Greater incidence ofdisease• Post-flood stagnant water pools provide disease vector breeding ground• Contaminated water during flood events – 65% villages highly exposed flooding – 70% villages rely on rivers and streams for drinking
    • 32. Very High Vulnerability – Infrastructure (Lowlands)Threat: Flooding and flashfloodingImpact: Destruction anddegradation of infrastructure• Many dwellings highly exposed due to village proximity to rivers and streams (e.g. Srepok)• Destruction/inundation of roads cuts off communities from markets• Poor current infrastructure magnifies losses
    • 33. Very High Vulnerability – Health (Uplands and Lowlands)Threat: Higher maximumtemperatureImpact: Heat stress• Days exceeding 35°C to rise from 5% to 25% on annual basis• 35°C (sustained) threshold for heat stress; 37-38°C potentially lethal• Outdoor livelihoods• Lack of shelter to recover
    • 34. Very High Vulnerability – Health (Lowlands)Threat: DroughtImpact: Water scarcity(Dry season)• Higher evaporation and less surface water• Water-use for hygiene a lower priority• Diarrhoea is a key health issue• Communities revert to less safe water sources during times of scarcity
    • 35. Agricultur NTFPs eFisheries Livelihoods Livestock Health Infrastructure
    • 36. Linkages between livelihood sectors and climate change (Mondulkiri)Agriculture: Insect damage reduces rice yield NTFP Rice Poverty use Poverty Food Food Production Insecurity NTFP Insecurity availabilityNTFPs: Fall in resin production Sensitivity to Resin Cash income climate change production Poverty impacts in all sectors
    • 37. Linkages between livelihood sectors and climate change (continued)Livestock: Flash flooding causes livestock deaths Livestock NTFP reliance Poverty following extreme assets events
    • 38. Higher dry season temperatureEels and Trapeangs Buffalo Fish Livelihoods Recession Vegetation Rice Wildlife
    • 39. CONCLUSION
    • 40. Conclusion- A huge economic and social transition is going on in the basin, but rural livelihoods will continue to be directly reliant on natural resources for many decades and will therefore be highly exposed to climate change- Mondulkiri is one of the poorest provinces in the basin and is projected to be under extreme threat from climate change- The province provides an illustration of how poverty and climate change vulnerability combine in the basin as a whole- The impacts on health and infrastructure of more serious flood and drought events would have large welfare impacts- BUT, an understanding of the full impacts requires an analysis of how all productive sectors (e.g. Agriculture, Fisheries, etc.) interact through livelihoods
    • 41. THANK YOU

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