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Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Livestock in LMB
 

Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Livestock in LMB

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    Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Livestock in LMB Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Livestock in LMB Presentation Transcript

    • Livestock 31 October 2012 Thomas Weaver
    • Presentation structure 1. Baseline – Species/system selection – Brief species overviews – Sector linkages – Key considerations 1. Impact and vulnerability assessment findings – Method – Overview of impact and vulnerability assessments 1. Conclusions 2
    • LIVESTOCK BASELINE 3
    • Structure of the full baseline 1. Species/systems selection 2. Prominent livestock systems descriptions 3. Wild species/breeds descriptions 4. Species/systems tolerances 5. Impacts of past extreme events 6. Linkages between sectors 7. Priority province profiles 8. Inventory of species/breeds 9. Livestock and wild species and systems climate change database 4
    • Sources used in construction of the baseline • Various scientific, socio-economic and development project papers and reports • GLiPHA database • Expert discussions • Personal experience Example: 5
    • Species/system selection considerations Farming systems type approach Rationale for selection of systems: Contribution to: • LMB livestock numbers (total, LU, number of households raising, stock densities) • Local/national economies • Livelihoods and food security • Global genetic diversity (indigenous breeds; wild species) • Current and projected significance in terms of regional production and consumption 6
    • Bovines, pigs and poultry are ubiquitous basin-wide Smallholder systems are numerically dominant Smallholders typically operate diversified, mixed farming and livelihood systemsStock density by total area is, broadly, inversely related to density by area of agricultural land 7
    • Select species/systemsidentified and assessed 8
    • Large ruminants (bovins)• Cattle: smallholder extensive (cattle ‘keeping’) – Draught – Beef• Buffaloes• Dairy
    • Cattle Buffalo
    • Pigs (suidae)• Small commercial (large commercial)• Smallholder low-input 11
    • Pigs 12
    • Poultry • Scavenging chicken • Small commercial chicken (broiler, layer) • Field running layer ducks • Large commercial 13
    • Poultry 14
    • LMB indigenous breeds:Important genetic resources Examples: • Pigs – Mong Cai, Ban, Moo Chid • Poultry – Ri, Ac, Luong Phuong, Thai fighting cock
    • Example effects of CC on livestock (tolerances) • Temperature: > critical point =  intake,  growth < critical point =  intake,  efficiency – Animal health risks: pathogen viability/ proliferation, vectors, fomites – Effects on other livelihood components • Rainfall: – Animal health: pathogen viability/proliferation, vectors, fomites – Effects on other livelihood components • Extreme events: – Direct losses – Indirect impacts: feed availability; disease transmission; markets – access (input and product), supply and demand 16
    • Wild species(elements of, and affected by, widerfarming systems) • Ruminants – Banteng (Mondul Kiri) – Gaur – Saola – Kouprey (?) – Eld’s Deer (Mondul Kiri) • Wild pigs (Sus scrofa) • Wild poultry
    • Livelihood linkages, examples FisheriesPositive and negative effects + Feed (production and processing waste) - Run off + Feed +/- Manure (protein supplements) + Waste management - Disease (production and processing) - Destructive grazing/browsing - Shifting cultivation Natural - Run off Livestock Systems/P Systems rotected Areas +/- Feed (forages, grazing) + Traditional animal health + Manure measures + Draught (land preparation, marketing) + Pest control +/- Feed (grain, forages, crop residues, - Run off fallow grazing, Agro-industrial byproducts) - Mycotoxins - Mechanisation Cropping Systems 18
    • Socio-economic CrosscuttingKey trends and drivers Demand  Socio- SupplyCultural ?  19
    • Socio-economic issues, trends and driversaffecting responses and resilience to climate change • Livelihoods and food security • Demographic changes - consumption • Price signals, price setting power • Trade • Commodity prices • Commercialisation • Land • Animal health and extension services, veterinary public health • Policy environment 20
    • Domesticated Wild speciesIf:  Incursion of stock/people into forest and/or wetland E.g. Climate change forces households’ to: • Procure feed from wild habitats: grazing, browsing, sourcing forages • Secure direct livelihood contributions (hunting, sourcing timber/NTFPs)Then:  Pressure (direct and indirect) on wild flora and fauna E.g. Destructive grazing/browsing/cut and carry  pressure on vegetation E.g. Risk of disease transmission: – To wild species: hemorrhagic septicaemia, foot and mouth disease, etc – From: influenzas, etc 21
    • Summary of key issues for livestock systems to consider in the face of climate changes Feed AnimalMarkets Health 22
    • IMPACT AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT 23
    • CAM methodology• Province• Identified priority species/systems• Species/system tolerances• Climate change predictions such as: E.g: T increase-Mondulkiri – Temperature – Precipitation – Extreme events• Exposure, sensitivityand adaptive capacity 24
    • Vulnerability assessment criteria: Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity Duration Breed Species/breed Frequency Housing system Availability of/adaptability to other feed sources (**) Severity Feeding system Production system (stress) Location of stock* Animal health risk (typical Accessibility of animal vaccination rate, level of biosecurity health/extension services (cost, employed) quantity, quality, reputation) Location of relevant assets Value to household (cost of losses, Outbreak responses (surveillance, (feedstock, housing, etc.)* livelihoods, food security)** compensation etc) Household wealth status** *Relate primarily to extreme events, in terms of exposure, but also locality specific impacts of other climate changes. Requires location specific assessment. **Location specific assessment required 25
    • Adaptive capacity:• Adaptive capacity: internal (biological) and external (e.g. management practices, accessibility/quality of services, policy environment). Requires evaluation and weighting in the given situation. – Internal is more consistent within and between systems – External is location and system specific 26
    • Broad findings on adaptive capacity: Systems Internal adaptive capacity External adaptive capacityLow market integration High LowHigh market integration Low HighWild species High Very low 27
    • General systems vulnerability to CC assessment Impact Adaptive capacity VulnerabilitySmallholder Low Low Mediumcattle/buffaloDairy/large Very high High HighcommercialSmall commercial High Medium HighpigSmallholder low Low Low Mediuminput pigSmall commercial Very high Low Very highchickenScavenging Low Low MediumchickenField running layer Very low Low Lowduck 28
    • Wild species general assessments Impact Adaptive capacity Vulnerability Banteng High Very low Very high* (esp. Mondul Kiri) Eld’s Deer High Very low Very high* (esp. Mondul Kiri) Sus Scrofa Low Very low High Wild Poultry Medium Very low High*Assuming greater human and domestic stock incursion into habitats  disease risks, hunting etc 29
    • CONCLUDING STATEMENTS BASIN LEVEL 30
    • Concluding statements • LMB livestock systems: 7 prominent, distinct livestock systems selected and assessed. Wild species considered as linked systems. • Low-input systems ‘local’ breeds: greater internal resilience to climate changes but lower external resilience. Systems typically slow to change, lacking knowledge of, access to and/or sufficient belief in supporting services. • (More) commercial systems raising higher performance exotics/crossbreds exhibiting lower internal adaptive capacity but typically greater external capacity to adapt to climate changes. • Wild species in the LMB, an important genetic resource, primarily threatened by loss of habitat, hunting and the threat of infectious diseases directly and indirectly related to climate change. 31
    • Fundamental considerationsDirectly and indirectly related to, and influenced by,climate change • Feeding systems; availability and quality, costs • Disease risk factors: pathogen viability, proliferation, risk of transmission; ability and willingness to change practices  Increasing demand, access to input and product markets, level of competition – competitiveness in a changing natural and economic environment 32
    • THANK YOU