Livestock   31 October 2012            Thomas Weaver
Presentation structure   1. Baseline      –   Species/system selection      –   Brief species overviews      –   Sector li...
LIVESTOCK BASELINE                     3
Structure of the full baseline   1. Species/systems selection   2. Prominent livestock systems      descriptions   3. Wild...
Sources used in construction of the baseline   • Various scientific, socio-economic and development     project papers and...
Species/system selection considerations   Farming systems type approach   Rationale for selection of systems:   Contributi...
Bovines, pigs and poultry are ubiquitous basin-wide    Smallholder systems are numerically dominant       Smallholders typ...
Select species/systemsidentified and assessed                          8
Large ruminants (bovins)• Cattle: smallholder extensive  (cattle ‘keeping’)   – Draught   – Beef• Buffaloes• Dairy
Cattle   Buffalo
Pigs (suidae)• Small commercial (large commercial)• Smallholder low-input                                        11
Pigs       12
Poultry   • Scavenging chicken   • Small commercial chicken     (broiler, layer)   • Field running layer ducks   • Large c...
Poultry          14
LMB indigenous breeds:Important genetic resources   Examples:   • Pigs      – Mong Cai, Ban, Moo Chid   • Poultry      – R...
Example effects of CC on livestock (tolerances) • Temperature:     >    critical point =  intake,  growth     <    criti...
Wild species(elements of, and affected by, widerfarming systems)    • Ruminants        –   Banteng (Mondul Kiri)        – ...
Livelihood linkages, examples                                                                           FisheriesPositive ...
Socio-economic    CrosscuttingKey trends and drivers       Demand            Socio-                SupplyCultural   ?    ...
Socio-economic issues, trends and driversaffecting responses and resilience to climate change   • Livelihoods and food sec...
Domesticated                 Wild speciesIf:     Incursion of stock/people into forest and/or wetland       E.g. Climate ...
Summary of key issues for livestock systems to      consider in the face of climate changes       Feed              Animal...
IMPACT AND VULNERABILITY      ASSESSMENT                       23
CAM methodology• Province• Identified priority  species/systems• Species/system tolerances• Climate change predictions  su...
Vulnerability assessment criteria:                Exposure                               Sensitivity                      ...
Adaptive capacity:• Adaptive capacity: internal (biological) and  external (e.g. management practices,  accessibility/qual...
Broad findings on adaptive capacity:           Systems          Internal adaptive capacity     External adaptive capacityL...
General systems vulnerability to CC assessment                      Impact      Adaptive capacity   VulnerabilitySmallhold...
Wild species general assessments                          Impact              Adaptive capacity     Vulnerability   Banten...
CONCLUDING STATEMENTS     BASIN LEVEL        30
Concluding statements • LMB livestock systems: 7 prominent, distinct livestock systems   selected and assessed. Wild speci...
Fundamental considerationsDirectly and indirectly related to, and influenced by,climate change   • Feeding systems; availa...
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Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Livestock in LMB

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Transcript of "Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Livestock in LMB"

  1. 1. Livestock 31 October 2012 Thomas Weaver
  2. 2. Presentation structure 1. Baseline – Species/system selection – Brief species overviews – Sector linkages – Key considerations 1. Impact and vulnerability assessment findings – Method – Overview of impact and vulnerability assessments 1. Conclusions 2
  3. 3. LIVESTOCK BASELINE 3
  4. 4. Structure of the full baseline 1. Species/systems selection 2. Prominent livestock systems descriptions 3. Wild species/breeds descriptions 4. Species/systems tolerances 5. Impacts of past extreme events 6. Linkages between sectors 7. Priority province profiles 8. Inventory of species/breeds 9. Livestock and wild species and systems climate change database 4
  5. 5. Sources used in construction of the baseline • Various scientific, socio-economic and development project papers and reports • GLiPHA database • Expert discussions • Personal experience Example: 5
  6. 6. Species/system selection considerations Farming systems type approach Rationale for selection of systems: Contribution to: • LMB livestock numbers (total, LU, number of households raising, stock densities) • Local/national economies • Livelihoods and food security • Global genetic diversity (indigenous breeds; wild species) • Current and projected significance in terms of regional production and consumption 6
  7. 7. Bovines, pigs and poultry are ubiquitous basin-wide Smallholder systems are numerically dominant Smallholders typically operate diversified, mixed farming and livelihood systemsStock density by total area is, broadly, inversely related to density by area of agricultural land 7
  8. 8. Select species/systemsidentified and assessed 8
  9. 9. Large ruminants (bovins)• Cattle: smallholder extensive (cattle ‘keeping’) – Draught – Beef• Buffaloes• Dairy
  10. 10. Cattle Buffalo
  11. 11. Pigs (suidae)• Small commercial (large commercial)• Smallholder low-input 11
  12. 12. Pigs 12
  13. 13. Poultry • Scavenging chicken • Small commercial chicken (broiler, layer) • Field running layer ducks • Large commercial 13
  14. 14. Poultry 14
  15. 15. LMB indigenous breeds:Important genetic resources Examples: • Pigs – Mong Cai, Ban, Moo Chid • Poultry – Ri, Ac, Luong Phuong, Thai fighting cock
  16. 16. Example effects of CC on livestock (tolerances) • Temperature: > critical point =  intake,  growth < critical point =  intake,  efficiency – Animal health risks: pathogen viability/ proliferation, vectors, fomites – Effects on other livelihood components • Rainfall: – Animal health: pathogen viability/proliferation, vectors, fomites – Effects on other livelihood components • Extreme events: – Direct losses – Indirect impacts: feed availability; disease transmission; markets – access (input and product), supply and demand 16
  17. 17. Wild species(elements of, and affected by, widerfarming systems) • Ruminants – Banteng (Mondul Kiri) – Gaur – Saola – Kouprey (?) – Eld’s Deer (Mondul Kiri) • Wild pigs (Sus scrofa) • Wild poultry
  18. 18. Livelihood linkages, examples FisheriesPositive and negative effects + Feed (production and processing waste) - Run off + Feed +/- Manure (protein supplements) + Waste management - Disease (production and processing) - Destructive grazing/browsing - Shifting cultivation Natural - Run off Livestock Systems/P Systems rotected Areas +/- Feed (forages, grazing) + Traditional animal health + Manure measures + Draught (land preparation, marketing) + Pest control +/- Feed (grain, forages, crop residues, - Run off fallow grazing, Agro-industrial byproducts) - Mycotoxins - Mechanisation Cropping Systems 18
  19. 19. Socio-economic CrosscuttingKey trends and drivers Demand  Socio- SupplyCultural ?  19
  20. 20. Socio-economic issues, trends and driversaffecting responses and resilience to climate change • Livelihoods and food security • Demographic changes - consumption • Price signals, price setting power • Trade • Commodity prices • Commercialisation • Land • Animal health and extension services, veterinary public health • Policy environment 20
  21. 21. Domesticated Wild speciesIf:  Incursion of stock/people into forest and/or wetland E.g. Climate change forces households’ to: • Procure feed from wild habitats: grazing, browsing, sourcing forages • Secure direct livelihood contributions (hunting, sourcing timber/NTFPs)Then:  Pressure (direct and indirect) on wild flora and fauna E.g. Destructive grazing/browsing/cut and carry  pressure on vegetation E.g. Risk of disease transmission: – To wild species: hemorrhagic septicaemia, foot and mouth disease, etc – From: influenzas, etc 21
  22. 22. Summary of key issues for livestock systems to consider in the face of climate changes Feed AnimalMarkets Health 22
  23. 23. IMPACT AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT 23
  24. 24. CAM methodology• Province• Identified priority species/systems• Species/system tolerances• Climate change predictions such as: E.g: T increase-Mondulkiri – Temperature – Precipitation – Extreme events• Exposure, sensitivityand adaptive capacity 24
  25. 25. Vulnerability assessment criteria: Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity Duration Breed Species/breed Frequency Housing system Availability of/adaptability to other feed sources (**) Severity Feeding system Production system (stress) Location of stock* Animal health risk (typical Accessibility of animal vaccination rate, level of biosecurity health/extension services (cost, employed) quantity, quality, reputation) Location of relevant assets Value to household (cost of losses, Outbreak responses (surveillance, (feedstock, housing, etc.)* livelihoods, food security)** compensation etc) Household wealth status** *Relate primarily to extreme events, in terms of exposure, but also locality specific impacts of other climate changes. Requires location specific assessment. **Location specific assessment required 25
  26. 26. Adaptive capacity:• Adaptive capacity: internal (biological) and external (e.g. management practices, accessibility/quality of services, policy environment). Requires evaluation and weighting in the given situation. – Internal is more consistent within and between systems – External is location and system specific 26
  27. 27. Broad findings on adaptive capacity: Systems Internal adaptive capacity External adaptive capacityLow market integration High LowHigh market integration Low HighWild species High Very low 27
  28. 28. General systems vulnerability to CC assessment Impact Adaptive capacity VulnerabilitySmallholder Low Low Mediumcattle/buffaloDairy/large Very high High HighcommercialSmall commercial High Medium HighpigSmallholder low Low Low Mediuminput pigSmall commercial Very high Low Very highchickenScavenging Low Low MediumchickenField running layer Very low Low Lowduck 28
  29. 29. Wild species general assessments Impact Adaptive capacity Vulnerability Banteng High Very low Very high* (esp. Mondul Kiri) Eld’s Deer High Very low Very high* (esp. Mondul Kiri) Sus Scrofa Low Very low High Wild Poultry Medium Very low High*Assuming greater human and domestic stock incursion into habitats  disease risks, hunting etc 29
  30. 30. CONCLUDING STATEMENTS BASIN LEVEL 30
  31. 31. Concluding statements • LMB livestock systems: 7 prominent, distinct livestock systems selected and assessed. Wild species considered as linked systems. • Low-input systems ‘local’ breeds: greater internal resilience to climate changes but lower external resilience. Systems typically slow to change, lacking knowledge of, access to and/or sufficient belief in supporting services. • (More) commercial systems raising higher performance exotics/crossbreds exhibiting lower internal adaptive capacity but typically greater external capacity to adapt to climate changes. • Wild species in the LMB, an important genetic resource, primarily threatened by loss of habitat, hunting and the threat of infectious diseases directly and indirectly related to climate change. 31
  32. 32. Fundamental considerationsDirectly and indirectly related to, and influenced by,climate change • Feeding systems; availability and quality, costs • Disease risk factors: pathogen viability, proliferation, risk of transmission; ability and willingness to change practices  Increasing demand, access to input and product markets, level of competition – competitiveness in a changing natural and economic environment 32
  33. 33. THANK YOU

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