• Share
  • Email
  • Embed
  • Like
  • Save
  • Private Content
Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Agriculture in LMB
 

Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Agriculture in LMB

on

  • 520 views

 

Statistics

Views

Total Views
520
Views on SlideShare
520
Embed Views
0

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0

0 Embeds 0

No embeds

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Microsoft PowerPoint

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

    Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Agriculture in LMB Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Agriculture in LMB Presentation Transcript

    • Climate change impact and vulnerabilityassessment for agriculture Dang Kieu Nhan Olivier Joffre Bun Chantrea Jorma Koponen ICEM – International Centre for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Study 1a Environmental Management Interim Results workshop 31 October – 1 November 2012
    • Contents1. Overview of the methodology2. Baseline – Agriculture in the Lower Mekong Basin3. Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment i. Changes in Basin-wide crop suitability ii. Vulnerability assessment for key crops in hot spots • Champassak • Mondulkiri • Kien Giang iii. Changes in Hot Spot Crop yields4. Main Conclusions 2
    • Overview of the methodology 3a
    • Agriculture Assessment process MEKONG HYDROCLIMATE MODELLING & ASSESSMENTChanges in climate Crop suitability Crop Yield & hydrology modelling modelling EXPOSURE X SENSITIVTY = IMPACT X ADAPTIVE = VULNERABILITY CAPACITY Sector Key Crop Farming systems assessment Species characterization AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS BASELINE 4
    • 1 Basin wide assessment approach • Identify 8 hotspot provinces 3 representative each of the 12 ecozones 2 • Develop farming system profiles for each ecozone 4 – Subsistence farming (small-scale) – Commercial farming (small & large1. Chiang Rai scale)2. Sakon Nakhon 5 • Identify key crops for subsistence &3. Khammouance 7 6 commercial agriculture4. Champasak – Rice5. Gia Lai – Cassava6. Mondulkiri – Maize7. Kampong Thom – Rubber8. Kien Giang 8 – Coffee – Sugarcane – Soya 5
    • Agriculture BaselineAssessment 6a
    • Agriculture in the LMB- Livelihoods: - 60 million people - 70% of population’s livelihoods rely on agriculture - 45% of population are considered poor- Changes in productivity of cropping systems will influence: - Local livelihoods - Rural and national economies - Food security (national & regional) 7
    • Rapid growth in LMB agriculture• Agriculture is a dynamic sector.• The production of the major crops has doubled in the last 20 years, primarily due to: • intensification of production, with higher yields rather than larger cultivated areas. • Some new areas for cultivation are opening in Lao PDR, the Vietnamese Central Highlands and Cambodia 8
    • Agriculture in the LMB remains reliant on rainfall• Key staple crops are predominately rain-fed,• Other emerging commercial crops (maize, soya or cassava) are also mostly rain-fed.• LMB agriculture is highly sensitive on climate and especially on rainfall frequency and distribution. 9 Source: MRC 2011
    • Faming systems in the LMB Annual1. Rice-based farming systems • Rainfed rice (75% of total agricultural area) Perennial • Upland rainfed rice • Lowland rainfed rice Rice • Irrigated rice2. Annual crops: vegetables, maize, soya, cassava, sugarcane, etc.3. Perennial crops 1. Industrial crops: black pepper, coffee, rubber, etc. 10 2. Fruits
    • LMB Farming systems • Diverse growing conditions have led to the development of diverse farming systems • General historic trend towards larger farm holds and commercial farms Rubber Cassava Upland Coffee Maize Rainfed Sugarcane rice Lowland rainfed & irrigated rice Soya FruitsSubsistence CommercialSmallholder Historic trend Small-Large holderShifting Plantation 11
    • Key crop distribution in hot spot provincesProvinces Ecozones Rice Cassava Maize Soya Sugarcane Coffee RubberChiang rai High-Mid-Low, X X X X X X FloodplainsSakon Nakhon Mid & Low X X X X elevationKhammouane High & Low X X X X X elevationChampasak High-Low, X X X X X FloodplainsMondulkiri Mid & Low X X X X elevationKampong Low elevation, X X X XThom FloodplainsGia Lai High & Low X X X X X X elevation 12Kien Giang Delta swamp X X
    • Geographical distribution: Upland rice, cassava, maize 13
    • Geographical distribution: Soya, sugarcane, coffee 14
    • Baseline assessment – Summary findings Crops Systems Locations Trends Existing Growth drivers (area) problemsUpland rice Subsistence High-mid Increase Drought • Population growth elevation • Urbanization (labour, food demand, landLowland rice Subsistence Low Decline Drought, flood, and water use) – commercial elevation & (Rainfed) salinity intrusion • Market demands and delta Increase foreign investments (irrigated) (animal feed, bio-fuel, rubber, etc.)Annual Subsistence High-low Changing with Drought, soil • Nation food security &commercial - commercial elevation crops and areas erosion export policiescrops • Natural resourcePerennial Commercial High-mid increase Drought, degradation andindustrial elevation groundwater environmentalcrops depletion, soil changes erosionFruits Commercial Delta Stable Flooding,
    • Basin wide Crop suitability assessment 16a
    • Land use suitability • LUSET – Land use suitability evaluation tool (IRRI) • evaluates the suitability of each land unit for a single crop • For each location suitability is based on climatological characteristics such as rainfall, drought and temperature • Suitability is expressed with a scale of 0 - 100
    • Crop parameter unitCassava annual rainfall drought mm/a months Crop Tolerances mean T C mean daily max T CCoffee annual rainfall mm/aRobusta drought months mean T C mean daily max T C av daily min T of the coldest month CMaize growing cycle rainfall mm/cycle first month rainfall mm/month second month rainfall mm/month third month rainfall mm/month fourth month rainfall mm/month fifth month rainfall mm/month growing cycle T C growing cycle mean daily min T C rainfall in first months mm/monthRain fed rainfall in ripening stage mm/monthrice growing cycle T C av daily max T of the warmest month C second month T C av daily min T of the coldest month CRubber annual rainfall mm/a drought months mean T C mean daily max T CSoya growing cycle rainfall mm/cycle first month rainfall mm/month second month rainfall mm/month third month rainfall mm/month fourth month rainfall mm/month 18 growing cycle T C growing cycle mean daily min T C
    • Crop NS S3 S2 S1 S2 S3 NS parameter weight 500 1000 1400 1800 2400 4000 annual rainfall 1 Cassava 6 Crop Tolerances 5 1 5 6 drought 2 12 18 24 29 33 45 mean T 1 16 22 29 34 38 45 mean daily max T 2 1200 1600 1800 2000 2400 3500 annual rainfall 1 3 2 1 1 2 3 drought 2Coffee Robusta 18 20 22 30 31 32 mean T 1 22 24 27 34 35 36 mean daily max T 2 14 16 20 - - - av daily min T of the coldest month 2 300 500 600 900 1200 1600 growing cycle rainfall 2 60 75 100 220 400 475 first month rainfall 1 70 120 175 235 310 475 second month rainfall 1 70 120 175 235 310 475 third month rainfall 1 Maize 70 120 175 235 310 475 fourth month rainfall 3 60 80 100 285 400 475 fifth month rainfall 3 14 18 22 26 32 40 growing cycle T 1 7 9 12 24 28 30 growing cycle mean daily min T 2 125 175 200 300 500 650 rainfall in first months 1 50 70 150 200 500 750 rainfall in ripening stage 1 18 24 30 32 36 40 growing cycle T 1 Rain fed rice 21 26 30 40 45 50 av daily max T of the warmest month 2 18 24 26 36 42 45 second month T 1 10 14 18 22 25 30 av daily min T of the coldest month 2 1200 1500 1700 2000 2500 3000 annual rainfall 1 4 3 2 drought 2 Rubber 18 20 24 30 33 35 mean T 1 22 24 27 33 36 38 mean daily max T 2 180 350 500 1000 1600 1900 growing cycle rainfall 1 50 85 150 200 275 475 first month rainfall 1 50 80 150 200 275 475 second month rainfall 1 Soya 50 80 150 200 275 475 third month rainfall 1 40 60 85 140 275 400 fourth month rainfall 19 2 18 20 24 30 34 38 growing cycle T 1 7 9 12 24 30 31 growing cycle mean daily min T 2
    • Baseline change in 2050 Rubber• Increase in higher altitude areas 15% – 50% by year 2050• Driver: higher temperature• Decrease in the low altitude central area 15% – 30% by year 2050• Driver: increased drought
    • Coffee Baseline change in 2050• Increase in Northern part 20% – 70% by year 2050• Driver: higher temperature and increased rainfall• Decrease in Mondulkiri 10% – 40% by year 2050• Driver: increased drought, higher temperature
    • Cassava Baseline change in 2050• Increase in Northern part 2% – 15% by year 2050• Driver: higher temperature• Decrease in the low altitude central area 5% – 15% by year 2050• Driver: increased drought, higher temperature
    • Soya Baseline change in 2050• Decrease in large areas, especially central Laos 30% – 100% by year 2050• Driver: increased rainfall
    • Maize Baseline change in 2050• Decrease in large areas, especially central Laos 30% – 100% by year 2050• Driver: increased rainfall
    • Rice 2000 change in 2050• Increase in limited areas 5% – 10% by year 2050• Driver: increased rainfall in dry areas, in high altitude areas temperature increase• Decrease in central Laos 5% – 20% by year 2050• Driver: increased rainfall
    • Impact & vulnerabilityassessment for key crop systems 26a
    • Key climate change threats 1.Increase in temperature 2.Increase in precipitation 3.Decrease in precipitation 4.Decrease in water availability 5.Increase in water availability 6.Droughts in the rainy season 7.Flooding 8.Flash flood 9.CO2 fertilization 10.Acid rain 27
    • Assessment criteria:Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity• Change in magnitude Physiological crop Internal factors: of hydroclimate tolerances i.e. • biophysical factors (tolerant crops, parameters comfort zones soil, water,…)• Change in frequency External factors: and duration of the • Farmer’s capacity – farming change management and accessibility to services • Support systems: extension services, infrastructure, institution, etc 28
    • CASE STUDY OVERVIEWCHAMPASSAK PROVINCE 29
    • Current farming systems• Largest land holdings in Lao PDR (2.1ha/HH) with rice as main crop – >70% lowland rainfed rice cultivated during the wet season – <20%farmers cultivate both in dry and wet season.• Lowland rice supplemented with 90 additional rainfed crops for subsistence (chilli, banana, sweet potato, beans 60 Area (103 ha) etc...) 30• Small holder coffee is dominant in the 0 Bolovens plateau Coffee Rainfed Rubber Cassava Maize Irrigated Soya rice• Cassava culture is booming, based on rice smallholder and contract farming 30• Rubber concessions cover large areas
    • Key climate change threats for Robusta coffee Climate Change Sensitivity ThreatsIncreased High temperature (> 32oC) in the dry season affects coffee growth andtemperature production Optimal water supply is 1750 mm/year, with high suitability ranging fromIncreased rainfall 1600 to 2400 mm and a dry period for flower initiation in March-AprilDecreased rainfall Decreased precipitation during dry season causes water stress.Drought Long dry spells (> 20 days) can affect the production due to water stress Heavy rains (> 250 mm/day) in upland and/or upstreams create a suddenFlash floods water level rise (rivers, stream) and carries debris, damaging coffee plant/production.Storms Coffee can suffer from strong winds and flash flood generated by storms. Increase of CO2 might have an impact on growth and water use efficiencyCO2 increase Acid rains can affect coffee production in the long term with damagedAcid rains leaves and reduced photosynthesis 31
    • Effects of increased temperature on coffeeThreat: High temperature (> 32oC) in the dry season affects coffee growth and productionExposure: Very high• 80% of days with Ave. Max. temp. > 32ºC in Jan – Nov,• 20% of days with extreme max. temp > 36ºC in Jan – Oct.Sensitivity: MediumHigh dry season temperatures can increase evapotranspiration and increased waterstressImpact: HighReduced productivityAdaptive Capacity: Medium-Internal capacity: Medium-External capacity: High; shade-management practice 32Vulnerability Score: Very High
    • Champassak Summary Vulnerability AssessmentProjected changes in temperature 2050 40% increase in proportion of dry season >32 C 33
    • Champassak - Summary of vulnerability for key cropsCC threat Irrigated Lowland maize Cassava Rubber coffee rice rainfed riceIncreased High High Medium Medium Medium Very HightemperatureIncreased Low Medium High High Low HighrainfallDecreased Medium Medium Low MediumrainfallDroughts Low Low Low Medium MediumFlooding Low Medium Medium MediumFlash floods Medium Low Medium Medium Medium MediumStorms Low Medium Medium High Medium HighCO2 increase Medium Medium Medium High Medium MediumAcid Rain Low Medium
    • CASE STUDY OVERVIEWMONDOLKIRI PROVINCE 35a
    • Current farming systems- Forested area dominates agricultural land- The subsistence system is based on rainfed rice and “chamkcar” system, with vegetable and other crops such as maize, soya, cassava, tarot, sweet potato and 20 mungbeans. Area (103 ha)- Emerging commercial/industrial 10 crops: - Rubber 0 Rainfed Cashew Cassava Rubber Soya - Cashew rice - Banana 36
    • Key climate change threats for rainfed riceThreats SensitivityIncreased Optimal range is 24-36ºC, above 36ºC at flowering and milking stages inducingtemperature sterility and a lower number of filled grainsIncrease in Increased rainfall might benefit the rice. However, rice suffers with excessive rains,rainfall inducing submergence at early stages, sterility and lodging at later stages, reducing potential yield. Upper rainfall limit is about 600 mm/month for the 1st month and for the last month.Decreased Decrease in soil water availability can generate stress and affect yield, particularly inwater avail. early and late rainy periods.Increased Rice is tolerant to anoxia and an increase in soil water availability and so thiswater avail. change will not be a threat but benefit.Drought Dry spell in the rainy season causes water stress =>reduce rice yields. At the flowering stage, rice can suffer a severe yield loss with a 8-12 -day drought.Flooding Flooding in the wet season can damage rice crop but floodplain area in the province is limitedStorms Storms with strong wind and heavy rains cause submergence and hence reduces rice 37 yields, particularly at the flowering and harvesting time (Nov-Dec).CO2 increase Increase in atm CO2 level might promote rice growth and hence increasing yields
    • Effect of increased rainfall on rainfed riceThreat/opportunity: rice production benefits, or suffers from, an increase in rainfall ? 38Source: ICEM (2012)
    • Effect of increased rainfall on rainfed riceThreat/opportunity: rice production benefits by, or suffers from, an increase in rainfall ?Exposure: low (negative/positive)• An increase in rainfall will supply more water and reduce water stress for the rice crop in May- Jul. However, excessive rainfall in Oct (25% probability), rice not flowering yet, might cause submergence.Sensitivity: Low (negative/positive)• An increase in rainfall in May-Sep and Nov is still in comfort zone. The rice crop has low sensitivity to the excessive amount of rainfall in Oct, which is less likely to cause submergence.Impact: Low (negative/positive)• Rice crop will best respond to increased rainfall in May-Sep and in Nov. Increased rains in Oct will have low negative impacts.Adaptive Capacity: High• Internal capacity: high – traditional rice more tolerant to submergence• External capacity: medium – farmers can apply adaptive farming practices to take use of higher rainfall at early stages and mitigate impacts of heavy rains at later stages. 39Vulnerability Score: Low (negative/positive)
    • Summary of vulnerability assessment for key crops - MondolkiriClimate change Rainfed rice Rubber Cassava SoyaIncreased temp Medium Medium Medium HighIncreased rainfall Low Low Medium MediumDecreased water avail. Medium Medium Low HighIncreased water avail. Very Low Medium Low LowDrought Medium Medium Very Low MediumFlooding Medium Medium Medium MediumStorms Medium Low Low MediumCO2 atm. Increase Medium Medium Medium Medium 40
    • CASE STUDY OVERVIEWKIEN GIANG PROVINCE 41
    • Current farming systems-Fresh water area: • Alluvial soils with irrigation systems • 2-3 rice crops/year • Rotational rice – vegetable farming-Saline water and acidic area: • Salinity intrusion (dry season) • Rice - shrimp rotation • Secondary crops: Area (103ha) 300 • Sugarcane 200 • pineapple. 100 0 Sugarcanne Rainfed rice Irrigated rice
    • Key climate change threats for rainfed rice – Kien GiangClimate Change SensitivityThreatsIncreased Optimal range is 24-36ºC, above 36ºC at flowering and milking stagestemperature inducing sterility and a lower number of filled grainIncreased rainfall Heavy rains in Sep – Nov causes submergence, sterility and lodging at flowering-ripening stagesDecreased Decreased rainfall in Jul-Sep constrains washing soil salinity and hencerainfall damaging young rice plantDrought Dry spell in early and late rainy season affect yield, with combined effects of salinity intrusion and acidificationFlood Flood is associated heavy rains, causing submergence Sep – Nov.Storm Storms with strong wind and heavy rains affect rice yields , particularly at the flowering, milking and ripening stages.Sea level rise Rice can be damaged by saline water (≥ 4‰) intrusion, particularly in early(SLR) and later stage of rice crop.Increased salinity Most of current rice varieties cannot tolerate to a salinity level above 4‰, particularly at young, panicle initiation and flowering stages.
    • 500 25 Rainfall 400 20Monthly rainfall (mm) Canal water salinity (‰) Salinity at location 300 15 far from estuary salinity at location close to estuary 200 10 100 5 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Rice Rice Rice Rice - Rice Shrimp Seedling Rice Rice -Shrimp Shrimp Shrimp mono-culture
    • 9 Tolerant: Y = 5.1 - 0.2X - 0.02X 2 8 2 Less tolerant: Y = 5.3 - 0.9X + 0.05X 7 Sensitive: Y = 5.0 - 1.4X + 0.1X 2 TolerantYields (tons ha -1) 6 Less tolerant Sensitive 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Salinity (‰)
    • Vulnerability of rice to sea level rise (SLR & salinity increase)Threat: SLR increases salinity intrusion, shortens freshwater duration for rice, damages rice crops and reduces rice culture area.Sensitivity: Very high• Rice can suffer from a salinity level above 2‰ in a prolonged period. Above 2‰, rice yield reduces by 0.2-1.5 tons/ha with every unit (1‰) increaseImpact: Very high• Rice crop suffers a significant loss (1-4 tons/ha) with a prolonged period of a salinity level up to 4‰Adaptive Capacity: High• Medium internal capacity – tolerant rice varieties and other farming practices can stand for a salinity level up to 4‰• High external capacity: good current salinity management structure; with good extension and institutional supports, farmers can shift to saline aquacultureVulnerability Score: High 46
    • Champassak Summary Vulnerability AssessmentSummary of vulnerability assessment for key crops Rainfed rice Irrigated rice Increased temperature Medium Medium Increased rainfall Medium Medium Decreased rainfall Medium Medium Drought Medium Medium Flood Medium Medium Storm Medium Medium Sea level rise (SLR) High Medium-High Increased salinity High Medium-High 47
    • Summary of VA for key crops: high vulnerabilityProvinces Rainfed rice Irrigated rice Cassava Maize Soya Sugar- Coffee Rubber caneChiang Rai High High Medium Medium Medium (temp) (lower water) Sakon High High Medium High Nakhon (temp) (rain, flood) (temp) Kham- High Medium High High High Medium mouane (temp) (rain) (rain, (rain, storm) storm) Cham High High High High High Medium -pasak (temp, storm) (temp) (rain) (rain) (temp, rain, storm) Mondulkiri High High High Medium (temp) (flash flood) (temp) Kongpong High High High High Medium Thom (temp, lower (temp, lower (flood) (temp, lower water) water) water) Gia Lai High High High High Medium High Medium (temp) (temp) (flood, flash (storm, (temp) flood) flash flood)Kien Giang High Medium-High (SLR, (SLR, salinity) salinity)
    • Hotspot crop yield assessment 49a
    • Crop yield• Crop yield is computed with the physiological FAO AquaCrop model• AquaCrop is integrated with the hydrological model yield Establishment | Vegetative | Flowering | Formation | Ripening | Maturity Reduction in max canopy cover Decline in canopy cover during productive phases (yield formation/ ripening) Delay in time to reach max canopy cover Source: FAO, 2010
    • Rain fed rice yield Baseline Change in 2050• Increase in Eastern Khorat Plateau 5% – 20% by year 2050• Driver: increased rainfall
    • Average annual yields in theselected provinces
    • Conclusions 53a
    • • Impacts of the projected changes in the climatic parameters differ: • among crops in the same hot spot • among hot spot with the same crop• Robusta coffee and cassava: • Become more suitable in northern parts with an increase in temperature • Suffer from droughts and a decrease in water availability in central parts• Cassava, soya and maize: less suitable with an increase in rainfall in the wet season 54
    • • Both rainfed and irrigated rice are highly vulnerable to: • increased temperature in the wet season • decreased water availability in the dry season • salinity intrusion (in the delta)• Coffee is highly vulnerable to increased temperature in the dry season• Rubber and sugarcane are relatively robust crops to changes in climatic parameters• Effect of increased rainfall in the wet season on rainfed rice: • small negative impact in “wet” areas like Champasak, Gia Lai. • possitive impacts in a “dry” area like Sakon Nakhon. 55