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Climate Chagne Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Natural Systems in LMB
 

Climate Chagne Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Natural Systems in LMB

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    Climate Chagne Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Natural Systems in LMB Climate Chagne Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Natural Systems in LMB Presentation Transcript

    • NTFPs and Crop Wild Relatives Peter-John Meynell, Sansanee Choowaew, Nguyen Huu Thien 31 October 2012
    • Non-Timber Forest ProductsNTFPs = materials collectedand used to support locallivelihoods from• natural or man-made forests and riverine habitats.Includes:• forest and aquatic vegetables,• fruit,• traditional medicine products,• wild animals• insects• aquatic organisms (fish, mollusks, crustaceans)• wood products for home construction,• fuel wood and charcoal• handicraft products
    • Diversity of NTFPs • In Cambodia – Food, mushrooms, fodder, medicines, resins, rattansIn Lao PDR • In Thailand – – Food – 500 species, – medicines – 800 species, – Resins - 27 species, dyeing and tanning, – Bamboo 60 species, – Honey, red ants, bamboo borer, wasp larvae • In Vietnam – – Fibres – 242 species, – Resins – 113 species, – Essential oils – 458 species, – Fatty oils – 473 species, – Tannin – 800 species, – Medicines – 557 species, – Dyeing agents – 200 species, – Bamboo and rattan – 93 species, – Starch – 27 species
    • Uses of NTFPs
    • Importance of NTFPs – livelihood value and income• In Cambodia – export – Aquilaria resin – 4 ton, Strychnos seed – 214 Mt, Sterculia seed 50 Mt, Cinnamomum – 1.7 Mt, Lacquer 494 Mt, Rattan 1,167 Mt• In Vietnam – Mushrooms 900 Mt, Medicinal plants 856 Mt, star anise 5,000 Mt, essential oils 112 Mt. Cinnamon 3,000 Mt• In Thailand – Lac 3723 Mt, Bamboo shoots 122 Mt, Gum 1,838 Mt, Honey 1,503 Mt, Resins 65 Mt, Species 83 Mt.• In Laos – Average household incomes $489 /yr – with fish $961/yr
    • Total NTFP value for Laos in 2009 estimated at $510 million Average value per ha of protection forests =
    • Trends and Threats• Increased market pressures on NTFP resources,• Loss of forest habitat due to commercial logging and conversion to agriculture,• Destructive harvesting practices• Rapid population growth and large population movements over past 30 years• Pressure on NTFPs due to growing insecurity on land tenure and access rights• Domestication of a number of NTFP speciesFew studies on impacts of Climate Change onNTFPs in the region
    • Linkages with other systems + Fertilizer/ soil conditioner + Gene bank/ +/- Gene flows – e.g. weedy rice +/- Pest control/harbouring pests + Pollination - Alien species Livestock - Eutrophication Agriculture - Landuse/habitat change - Crop intensification - Agricultural chemicals + Forage source + Food security, food delicacies + Appetite stimulant + Health/medicines + Wild species/domestication +Income and livelihood source + Gene bank NTFPs + + Raw materials for construction/handicrafts +Traditional medicines CWRs + +Fuelwood/charcoal - Diseases – bird flu Wild fish +Recreation and tourism + Cultural values +Protection /management of natural systems + Habitat/refuge +Spawn/feeding Social +Domestication of wild species Aquaculture + - Alien species - Loss of habitat Livelihoods - Pollution source - Eutrophication
    • Normally NTFPs are This is not helpful for ourcategorised by use: purposes, so we have used:• Food • Mushrooms• Medicines • Grasses and herbs• Fibres • Aquatic plants• Extracts and resins • Orchids• Ornamentals • Bamboo and rattan• Wood products and • Shrubs charcoal • Trees• Animal products • Insects • Fish and other aquatic animals (fisheries group)
    • We can not consider the impacts of climate changeon ALL the different NTFPs or CWRs -Selection criteriaNTFPs CWRs• Economic/Livelihood • Genetic importance for the importance domesticated crop,• Degree of threat • Known properties, e.g. – from climate change – disease resistance, – from economic development – optimal climatic or• Availability of information – hydrological conditions• Where and what type of ecosystem they occur in?
    • Distribution of NTFPs chosen in 5 hotspot provinces Province Kien Giang Mondul Kiri Gia Lai Chiang Rai Khammouan 4. High-elevation 3. Delta Low lying 6. Low-elevation 9. Mid-elevation 7. Low-mid ele moist broadleaf Ecozone acidic area swamp dry broadleaf dry broadleaf moist broadleaf forest - North forest forest forest forest Indochina 12. Upper 4. High-elevation 2. Delta 9. Mid-elevation floodplain moist broadleafNTFP Category Species Common name mangroves and dry broadleaf wetland, lake (CS forest - North saline water forest to VTE) IndochinaMushroom Russula sp x x x xGrasses/herbs Ammomum spp False Cardamom x x x xAquatic plants Sesbania sesban Egyptian pea x xClimbers Dioscorea hispida Bitter yam x x xOrchids Dendrobium lindleyi x x x xRattans Calamus crispus x x x xShrubs Broussonetia papyrifera Paper mulberry x x x xTrees Dipterocarpus alatus x x x x Scaphium macropodum Malva nut x x Sonneratia sp Mangrove apple xInsects Apis dorsata Giant honeybee x x x x x Red ants Red Ants x x x x Crickets Crickets x x x x x
    • Crop Wild Relatives (CWR) - definition• A wild plant closely related to a domesticated plant,• Geographic origins can be traced to regions known as Vavilov Centers.• A wild ancestor of the domesticated plant,• An increasingly important resource for improving agricultural production and for maintaining sustainable agro- ecosystems. Vavilov Centers
    • Why are CWRs important?• To breed new varieties, we need genetic diversity.• CWRs are the largest source for crop improvement,• Richest source of diversity for adaptive characteristics• It is a largely untapped source• Many crop wild relatives remain – uncollected, – unevaluated and – unavailable to plant breeders and to farmers,• Many are also at risk of extinction.
    • Distribution of CWRs in LMB Name Genus Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Number of CWR speciesPlum Armeniaca 1 1 1Jackfruit Arctocarpus 3 3 8 5 9Asparagus Asparagus 1 1 1 2Bean Cajanus 2 2 4 4Camellia Camellia 1 2 2Cherry Cerrasus 1 1 2 2Lime Citrus 2 1 3Taro Colocasia 1 1 2 1 2Cucumber Cucumis 2 2Crab or Finger Grass Digitaria 8 6 12 11 16Yam Dioscorea 3 3 8 4 8Cockspur grass Echinochloa 1 1 2 1 2Snow banana Ensete 1 1Figs Ficus 1 5 9 17 19Strawberry Fragaria 1 2 2Bloodgrass Imperata 1 1 1 1 1Convolvulus Ipomea 1 1Hyacinth bean Lablab 1 1 1Apple Malus 1 1 1Mango Mangifera 2 10 5 13Banana Musa 1 2 5 4 7Olive Olea 1 1Wild rice Oryza 6 4 7 3 7Palm Phoenix 2 1 3 4 4Plum Prunus 1 1 3 3Pear Pyrus 3 1 6 7Brassica Rorippa 1 2 2 4 4Grass Saccharum 2 2 6 5 7Grass Sclerostycha 1 1 1Tomatoes/Egg plants Solanum 3 1 3Sorghum Sorghum 2 2Peas/beans Vigna 3 4 5 6 10Grape Vitis 3 1 4 5TOTAL 35 51 102 99 153
    • Distribution of wild rice species Species Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Oryza granulate X O. meyeriana X X O. meyeriana var. granulate X X O. meyeriana var. meyeriana X O. nivara X X X X O. officinalis X X X X O. ridleyi X X X O. rufipogon X X X X Kien Giang Mondul Kiri Gia Lai Chiang Rai Khammouan 4. High-elevation 3. Delta Low lying 6. Low-elevation 9. Mid-elevation 7. Low-mid ele moist broadleaf acidic area swamp dry broadleaf dry broadleaf moist broadleaf forest - North forest forest forest forest Indochina 12. Upper 4. High-elevation 2. Delta 9. Mid-elevation floodplain moist broadleaf mangroves and dry broadleaf wetland, lake (CS forest - North saline water forest Wild Rice to VTE) Indochina O. granulata x O. nivara x x O. officinalis x x O. ridleyi O. rufipogon x x O. sativa/prosativa Floating rice An Giang
    • Species Vulnerability assessment methodClimate change vulnerability scoreand habitats in a climate change and • Developed for wetlands speciesCategory interval 0.4 MRC Low High wetlands study for • Adapted for use withVery High Vulnerability other NTFPs and CWRs 2.7 3 • Consists of:High Vulnerability 2.3 2.6 a) Baseline vulnerability assessment of species characteristics, distribution,Moderate Vulnerability and trends (i.e. without climate change) range, threats 1.9 2.2Low Vulnerability change vulnerability, through relevant CC1.5 b) Climate Threat, Exposure or 1.8 protection from climate extremes, Sensitivity of species, AdaptiveVery Low Vulnerability capacity 1 1.4 • Comes up with a 5-point vulnerability score, ranging from very high vulnerability to very low vulnerability to climate change • Process forces assessor to think through the different aspects of vulnerability • Allows an expression of confidence in the assessment
    • VULNERABILITY AND IMPACTASSESSMENT FORMONDULKIRI
    • Wild mushroom : Russula virescens Habitats : lower part of Climate key threats trees near ground of • Future average temperature range 27 – deciduous, dry 37 °C is still within the optimal range dipterocarp forests, during fruiting period marshes, swamps • Future maximum temperature 44 °C is Fruiting : June-Oct. beyond the comfort zone, but may peak at the end of rainy enhance the decay of leaf litter which season become nutrients facilitating growth Temperature range : • Reduced dry season rainfall and soil 30-38˚C moisture may affect sub-soil parts 80-90% air humidity • Increase of total rainfall in wet season Rainfall : 1,350 mm/yr enhances availability & abundance • Increased forest fires and loss of associated tree species and habitatsBaseline vulnerability = 2.0 (Moderate) Climate change vulnerability = 2.0 (Moderate)Prediction: Climate change is unlikely to increase the overall vulnerability
    • False cardamom - Amomum kravanh • Perennial herb with thick rootstocks, growing 2 – 3.5 m high • Moist riverine places within mixed 2ndry deciduous and evergreen forests; Needs 50% forest cover • Flowers: March – June; Fruits: June – August • Fruit and seeds used for medicinal products esp. export to China Climate key threats • Annual temperature change well beyond comfort zone to 27 – 37C • During flowering season temps increase from 30/31C to 35/36C. Soil moisture in April decreased, May change the flowering patterns • Fruiting season (June-August) less extreme change with av. temps increasing from 26 to 30CBaseline vulnerability = 2.0 (Moderate) CC Vulnerability = 2.3 (HighVulnerability)
    • Asian bitter yam - Dioscorea hispida• Perennial climber, up to 2 m long with system of fibrous roots and tubers• Grows in lowland evergreen and secondary forests often with bamboo, up to 1,000m elevation• Grows well in all soil types, but does best on moist clay loam, under shade along streams• Used and traded locally as food during food (rice) shortages. Also used for medicinal purposesClimate key threats• Temperature changes within comfort zone• Rainfall range well within comfort zone, and during rains may increase growth• Vegetative growth from tubers, good recovery after droughts• Extreme events – protected from wind and recovers after fireBaseline Vulnerability = 1.7 (Low Vulnerability) CC Vulnerability = 1.3 (Very Low)Prediction Climate change may enhance the growth of Bitter Yam
    • Wild orchid : Dendrobium lindleyi • Habitats : semi-epiphyte; attached with big trees in dry evergreen, mixed deciduous, open forests; on high canopy • Flowering : only in summer (February–May); flowers last only 4 – 5 days up to 1 week, • Elevation range : 300-1,500 m asl; Temperature range : 7 – 32˚C • Rainfall range : 965 – 1,550 mm/yr • Wild orchid trading, high demand, high market price Climate change threats • Increased future average temperature range 27 – 37 °C well above comfort zone, • Average temperature during flowering period (February-May), and maximum temperature 44 °C may affect growth and flowering • Increase in temperature causes shifts of insect pollinators • Decrease in rainfall during dry season enhances flowering and flowers lasting period • Extreme rainfall and high winds affect orchids that grow on high canopyBaseline vulnerability = 2.2 (Vulnerable) CC vulnerability = 2.6 (HighVulnerability)
    • Rattans : Calamus caesius • Perennial, long life, multi-stems, clustering, in lowlands on alluvial flats, riverbanks, moist evergreen, dry evergreen, peatswamp forests, also at drier sites • Alluvial soils up to 800 m asl • New shoots germinate all year round; Fruiting : November-March • Temperature range : optimal 23-30°C; absolute 16 – 34°C • Rainfall range : optimal 2,500-3,200 mm/yr; absolute 1,700-4,200 mm/yr • Used for handicrafts, shoots used for food • Cultivation possible Climate key threats • Increase in total rainfall enhances growth • Future maximum temperature 44 °C is beyond the comfort zone • Decrease of dry season rainfall may affect growth and fruiting • Possible increase in forest fires which destroy seedlings • High adaptive capacity due to drought tolerance of extensive root systemBaseline vulnerability = 2.2 (Moderate) CC vulnerability = 2.0 (Moderate)Prediction: Climate change unlikely to increase vulnerability
    • Paper Mulberry - Broussonettia papyrifera• Common, small shrubby deciduous tree. Fast growing pioneer, spreads rapidly after clearance of forests, sprouts after burning• Grows on variety of soils and wide growing conditions up to 1000 m. Sunlight and moisture demanding. Cultivated along river banks• Flowering May/June, fruiting Oct - Dec• Bark used for paper making, medicines, leaves as forage for livestock, woodfuel, mushroom cultivationClimate key threats• Flowering delayed by high temperatures and low soil moisture, Lower rainfall/soil moisture in dry season• Increased rainfall favours growth in wet season and withstands floods• Exposed to wind and extreme events, branches break easily Baseline Vulnerability = 1.7 (Low Vulnerability) CC Vulnerability = 1.9 (Moderate) Prediction: Climate change may increase vulnerability slightly
    • Resin Tree : Dipterocarpus alatus • Habitats : along riverbanks, bottom of ridges, swampy areas in dry dipterocarp, dry evergreen, lower moist evergreen, semi-evergreen, evergreen forests • Flowering : March-May, Fruiting : April-June • Resin collection : only in summer (April-May) • Elevation range : 100-800 m asl • Temperature range : optimal 22-32˚C, absolute 10-36˚C, can grow in areas with max temperature up to 45 ˚C • Rainfall range : optimal rainfall 3,500-4,500 mm/yr, absolute 3,000-Climate key threats 5,200 mm/yr, found in areas 1,000-2,000 mm/yr• increase in temperature enhances forest fire; forest fires kill seedlings and lower volume and quality of resin/oil• extreme events (storms and high winds) kill seedlings and affect the trees which are improperly tapped and hole maintained• extreme droughts enhance insect attacks (longhorn beetles) and also lower seed germination rate Baseline vulnerability = 2.2 (Moderate) CC vulnerability = 2.5 (High Vulnerable)
    • Red Ants : Oecophylla smaragdina • Habitats : arboreal, delimited territories, live/nest on a great variety of trees/leaves in big colony in deciduous dipterocarp forests, plantations • Ant eggs collection : dry season (December-May) Most popular food insect, high demand, high market price • Elevation range : <1,000 m asl Rainfall : 1,350 mm/yr • Temperature range : 10-40˚C; 30˚C is optimal for feeding • Quick population recovery, short regeneration time, live in big colony, strong defensive mechanism; delimited territories with wide range of habitats; occupy a great variety of trees in both natural and plantation areas; good adaptability to the environment; specialized in nest building to avoid damage by rains/winds Climate key threats • Increase in temperature and future maximum temperature 44 °C affect feeding, enhance forest fires which affect ants abundance • Decrease dry season rainfall and soil moisture enhances population and abundance • Increase in total rainfall affects the nests (disease occurs), population, movement, feeding habits • Heavy rains, high winds affect ants’ nests and populationBaseline vulnerability = 1.7 (Low vulnerability) CC vulnerability = 1.8 (Low vulnerability)Prediction: Climate change will have little effect upon vulnerability
    • Application of method to other hotspot areas• Method has been applied for NTFP and CWR species in Kien Giang• Will be applied in other hotspot areas• Will be able to compare the response of the same NTFPs to different CC threats
    • Province Kien Giang Mondul Kiri Gia Lai Chiang Rai KhammouanDiversity of 3. Delta Low lying 6. Low-elevation 9. Mid-elevation 4. High-elevation 7. Low-mid ele moist broadleaf Ecozone acidic area swamp dry broadleaf dry broadleaf moist broadleafNTFP forest forest forest forest - North forest Indochinavunerabilities 2. Delta 9. Mid-elevation 12. Upper 4. High-elevation floodplain moist broadleaf NTFP Category Species Common name mangroves and dry broadleaf wetland, lake (CS forest - North saline water forest to VTE) Indochina Mushroom Russula sp Russula mushroom x x x x Grasses/herbs Ammomum spp False Cardamom x x x x Aquatic plants Sesbania sesban Egyptian pea x x Climbers Dioscorea hispida Bitter yam x x x Orchids Dendrobium lindleyi Orchid x x x x Rattans Calamus crispus Rattan x x x x Shrubs Broussonetia papyrifera Paper mulberry x x x x Trees Dipterocarpus alatus Resin tree x x x x Sonneratia casseolaris Mangrove apple x Insects Apis dorsata Giant honeybee x x x x x Oecophylla smaragdina Red Ants x x x x CWRs Wild Rice O. granulata x O. nivara x x O. officinalis x x O. rufipogon x x O. sativa/prosativa Floating rice An Giang CC Vulnerability Very high High Moderate Low Very Low
    • In conclusion• Our assessment highlights the wide range of responses of NTFP species to CC threats• Some may be enhanced, others will be even more threatened• This method highlights the biological response of a single species• It does not really address the interdependency of different species in a forest assemblage• Big question is how to assess the impacts in whole ecosystems