Turkey's Outlook v12 (Denmark) 18.03.14

267 views
190 views

Published on

Published in: Technology, Economy & Finance
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
267
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
12
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Turkey's Outlook v12 (Denmark) 18.03.14

  1. 1. Turkey’s Economic & Political Outlook March 18, 2014 Mehmet Şimşek Minister of Finance
  2. 2. Economic & Political Outlook Structural Reforms & Priorities Long-Term Prospects Outline 2
  3. 3. 3 Political Outlook: Is Political Stability at Stake?
  4. 4. 3 Elections Ahead Local • March 30, 2014 Presidential • August 2014 Parliamentary • June 2015 4
  5. 5. Polls: POLLMARK (March 2014) 49.4 28.3 13.2 6.2 2.9 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 AK PARTY CHP MHP BDP Others Source: ANAR Research Company AK PARTY: Justice and Development Party CHP: Republican People’s Party MHP: Nationalist Movement Party BDP: Peace and Democracy Party (%)
  6. 6. Polls: ANAR (March 2014) 46.9 30.1 14.3 5.8 2.9 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 AK PARTY CHP MHP BDP Others Source: ANAR Research Company AK PARTY: Justice and Development Party CHP: Republican People’s Party MHP: Nationalist Movement Party BDP: Peace and Democracy Party (%)
  7. 7. 48.5 29.7 14.4 5.5 1.9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 AK PARTY CHP MHP BDP Others Source: DENGE Research Company AK PARTY: Justice and Development Party CHP: Republican People’s Party MHP: Nationalist Movement Party BDP: Peace and Democracy Party (%) Polls: DENGE (February 2014)
  8. 8. Polls: VARYANS (February 2014) 47.5 28.5 14.2 8.4 1.4 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 AK PARTY CHP MHP BDP Others Source: VARYANS Research Company AK PARTY: Justice and Development Party CHP: Republican People’s Party MHP: Nationalist Movement Party BDP: Peace and Democracy Party (%)
  9. 9. Polls: KONDA (February 2014) 44.7 27.6 16.9 5.9 4.9 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 AK PARTY CHP MHP BDP Others Source: KONDA Research Company AK PARTY: Justice and Development Party CHP: Republican People’s Party MHP: Nationalist Movement Party BDP: Peace and Democracy Party (%)
  10. 10. 10 Economic Fallout from Political Uncertainty?
  11. 11. 11 Growth
  12. 12. Real GDP 12 Source: Turkstat, Eurostat *Poland, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, Croatia, Lithuania, Latvia 119.4 107.8 97.9 100.0 106.5 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 Q1-08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-11 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-13 Q2 Q3 Q4 Turkey Emerging Europe* Euro Area USA RealGDP(2007Q4=100,s.a.)
  13. 13. 13 Upside • Stronger external demand • EU pulling out of recession • Arab Spring becoming less disruptive • TL Depreciation Downside • Political uncertainty • Tighter financial conditions Growth Outlook
  14. 14. Employment, Unemployment & Labor Participation Employmentsince2007(mnpeoples.a.) Source:TURKSTAT 25.8 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Unemploymen Rate (Left Axis) Labor Force Participation Rate (Right Axis) (s.a.,%) (s.a.,%)
  15. 15. 15 Growth
  16. 16. Inflation 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Kaynak: TÜİK (CPI,Annual,%)
  17. 17. 17 Upside • TL Depreciation Downside • Monetary Tightening • Widening Output Gap • Benign Commodity Prices Inflation Outlook
  18. 18. Impact of Currency Depreciation on Inflation 10% currency depreciation 1.5ppt higher core inflation Source: Kara, Hakan and Öğünç F. (2011). "Effect of Exchange Rate and Import Prices on Inflation", CBRT, Economic Notes, No. 2011/14.
  19. 19. Disconnecting from Fundamentals? Source: CBRT (2003=100) 19 106.9 87.0 84.9 89.3 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Jan03 Jun03 Nov03 Apr04 Sept04 Feb05 Jul05 Dec05 May06 Oct06 Mar07 Aug07 Jan08 Jun08 Nov08 Apr09 Sept09 Feb10 Jul10 Dec10 May11 Oct11 Mar12 Aug12 Jan13 Jun13 Nov13 CPI Based REER CPI (Developing Countries) Based REER
  20. 20. Output Gap -3 -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 1 1 2 2 Q1-2011 Q2-2011 Q3-2011 Q4-2011 Q1-2012 Q2-2012 Q3-2012 Q4-2012 Q1-2013 Q2-2013 Q3-2013 Q4-2013 Source: CBRT, Turkstat (%,GDP)
  21. 21. (%) 21 Tightening Monetary Policy Source: CBRT 8.00 12.00 10.00 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 Oct-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 CBRT Funding Rate O/N Borrowing O/N Lending Policy Rate
  22. 22. 22 Fiscal Outlook: Room to Manoeuvre
  23. 23. 10.8 7.9 4.1 0.1 -1.3 0.2 1.6 5.5 3.0 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.1 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Maastricht Criteria: 3% Achieved Maastricht Criteria except 2009 Source: Ministry of Development BudgetDeficit-to-GDP,% 23 Low Deficit
  24. 24. Budget Deficit (2014) 24 BudgetDeficit-to-GDP,% Source: IMF, OECD, Ministry of Development 4.0 2.9 2.2 1.1 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 OECD EU-27 EMs Turkey
  25. 25. 25 Upside • Recent tax measures Downside • Weakening domestic demand Fiscal Outlook
  26. 26. Conservative Revenue Forecasts 2014 Nominal GDP Growth 10.2% 2014 Revenue Growth 3.5% 26
  27. 27. 74.0 67.7 59.6 52.7 46.5 39.9 40.0 46.1 42.3 39.1 36.2 35.0 33.0 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Lower Public Debt Debt-to-GDP,% Satisfying Maastricht Criteria since 2004 Maastricht Criteria: 60% Source: Treasury 27
  28. 28. Public Debt (2014) Source: IMF, OECD, Treasury 28 Debt-to-GDP,% 111.8 90.0 33.7 33.0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 OECD EU EMs Turkey
  29. 29. 29 Turkey’s Soft Spot
  30. 30. Current Account Deficit 30 (%ofGDP) Net Gold Exports • 2011: -$4.8 billion • 2012: +$5.7 billion • 2013: -$11.8 billion Source: CBRT
  31. 31. Factors behind high C/A Deficit (2011-13) Strong domestic demand Euro crisis Energy prices Arab Spring 31
  32. 32. Outlook for C/A Deficit 32 • Europe pulling out of recession • Softening domestic demand • Exchange rate weakness • Relatively more stable MENA region • Gold imports likely to fall • Higher tourism revenues Significant adjustment is likely
  33. 33. Financial Stability & Turkey’s FX Risk? 33
  34. 34. Turkey's FX Position Source: CBRT, BRSA, Treasury * Assets: CBRT FX Deposits of Treasury+ CBRT Foreign Assets; Liabilities= Public gross external debt+CBRT Liabilities to Non Residents. Data from CBT dated Mar. 13, 2014; data from gross external debt stock as of Q3-13 ** Data - Jan. 2014 *** Data - Dec. 2013 **** Data - Mar. 2013 *****Data-07.03.2014 Billion $ Assets Liabilities Net Position Public* 136,7 119,1 17,6 Banking Sector** 482,1 482,6 -0,5 Real Sector*** 92,2 266,1 -173,9 Short Term 76,9 94,9 -18 Household**** 191,0 0,5 190,5 FX Deposit ***** 81,6
  35. 35. 35 (BillionTL) Source: Treasury Public: Net External Debt
  36. 36. Banks: Safe & Sound 36 CapitalAdequacyRatio,% 2002 Jan-14 17.6 2.7 NPLRatioofLoans(%) 15.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 Legal Rate: %8 Target Rate 12% Source: BRSA
  37. 37. FX Loans: All Firms 37 Source: CBRT No FX Loans 63% FX Loan w/ export earning 25% FX Loan w/o export earning 12% 9,500 firms Total net sales at 71% of GDP.
  38. 38. Firms: SMEs and Large Companies 38 FX debt mainly belongs to LARGE COMPANIES 57% of large companies have FX debt, o.w. 80% also have export earnings Source: CBRT
  39. 39. Households: Low Leverage Source: CBRT, ECB (HouseholdLiabilities,%ofGDP,2012) 39 No FX exposure 65 23 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Denmark Netherlands Ireland United Kingdom Portugal Sweden Spain Finland Euro Area Greece Malta Germany France Luxembourg Belgium Austria Italy Estonia Poland Czech Republic Latvia Slovenia Hungary Slovakia Lithuania Turkey
  40. 40. Priorities & Structural Reforms 40
  41. 41. Chapter- 1 Moving up the Value- Chain Deepening Capital Markets Combatting Shadow Economy Improving Infrastructure 41
  42. 42. Moving up the Value-Chain 42
  43. 43. High Added Value in Exports Strengthening the link b/w commerce and R&D Value of export products per kg Turkey $1.58 South Korea $3.0 Turquality $3.28 Japan $3.5 Germany $4.1
  44. 44. Source: The Scientific and Technological Council of Turkey R&D Spending •3.00%2023 •1.8%2018 • 0.92%2012 • 0.53%2002 44
  45. 45. Deepening Capital Markets 45
  46. 46. 31 44 66 68 71 73 77 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Rio de Jeneiro ISTANBUL Mexico Mauritius Warsaw Prague Budapet (2013) 2009 72nd 2013 44th 2018 25th Global Financial Centres Index Source: Global Financial Centres Index
  47. 47. Increasing Savings: Private Pensions 25% State Contribution 1.2 million new participants and TL 5.4bn funds since end-2012 47
  48. 48. Combatting Shadow Economy 48
  49. 49. 49 52.1 51.7 50.1 48.2 47.0 45.4 43.5 43.8 43.3 42.1 39.0 36.7 30 35 40 45 50 55 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 InformalEmployment(%ofTotalEmployment) Informal Employment Source:TURKSTAT
  50. 50. Size of Shadow Economy (%, GDP) 32.2 31.5 30.7 30.4 29.1 28.4 28.9 28.3 27.7 27.2 26.5 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Schneider, 2013 Down 6 percentage points 50
  51. 51. Size of Shadow Economy (%, GDP) Source: Schneider, 2013 But still higher than EU average 51 31.2 28.4 28.4 28.0 27.6 26.5 25.5 25.2 24.3 23.8 23.6 23.1 22.1 21.1 19.0 18.6 18.4 16.4 15.5 15.0 13.9 13.6 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.2 9.9 9.7 9.1 8.0 7.5 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Bulgaria Romania Crotia Latvia Estonia TURKEY Lithuania S.Cyprus Malta Poland Greece Slovenia Hungary Italy Portugal Spain EUAverage Belgium CzechRep. Slovakia Sweeden Norway Denmark Finland Germany Ireland France UnitedKingdom Netherlands Luxemburg Austria SizeofInformalEconomy(2013,%,GDP)
  52. 52. Improving Infrastructure 52
  53. 53. 1,714 Km Total of Motorways 4,387 Km Total of State and Provincial Dual Carriageways Total: 6,101 Km January 2003 2,244 Km Total of Motorways 20,807 Km Total of State and Provincial Dual Carriageways Total: 23,051 Km January 2014 53
  54. 54. İSTANBUL EDİRNE ESKİŞEHİR Polatlı ANKARA KONYA İZMİR SİVAS AFYONKARHİSAR KAYSERİ BURSA ERZİNCAN ERZURUM KARS MERSİN ADANA DİYARBAKIR ELAZIĞ MALATYA ZONGULDAK SAMSUN Bandırma VAN MUŞ BİLECİK ÇANKIRI KIRIKKALE TEKİRDAĞ İZMİT BALIKESİR AYDIN DENİZLİ BURDUR ISPARTA UŞAK MANİSA KARAMAN NİĞDE OSMANİYE K.MARAŞ AMASYA BATMAN MARDİN Yerköy KARABÜK Yenişehir Constructed (1.724 km) Under Construction (2.500 km) Bidding Phase (1.600 km) GAZİANTEP Çobanbey 1,724 km of railroad constructed since 2003 o.w. 1,366 km High Speed Train Lines 54 High Speed Railway Projects
  55. 55. • The number of airports serving scheduled flights = 262003 • The number of airports serving scheduled flights = 522013 Active Airports in Turkey Airports serving Scheduled Flights (52) Airports under Construction (3) Airports Planned (1) 55
  56. 56. Chapter- 2 Enhancing Human Capital Stock Increasing Labor Market Flexibility Reducing Energy Import Bill Investing in Agriculture 56
  57. 57. Enhancing Human Capital Stock 57
  58. 58. Students (%, Total Population) 58 39 22 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Turkey EU Source: TURKSTAT, Eurostat Included Informal Education
  59. 59. 9.4 18 8 10 12 14 16 18 2002 2014 Source: Ministry of Finance Share of Education in Budget % 59
  60. 60. 12 Years of Mandatory Education 60 Austral. Austria Belg. Canada Chile Czech R. Den. Estonia Finland France Italy Japan Lux Mex New Zeal. Poland Port. Spain Switz. TURKEY UK USA 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 9.5 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.5 AverageYearsatSchoolofPop’nover25Years Income per Capita (PPP, log) Source: OECD
  61. 61. 2002 91,1 girls per 100 boys 2012 101,8 girls per 100 boys 61 Improving Girls’ Education
  62. 62. 62Source: OECD 76 74 47 51 38 46 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 Science Math 2006 2009 2012 Enhancing Human Capital Stock: PISA Results, Gap b/w Turkey & OECD
  63. 63. Healthcare 63
  64. 64. Healthcare Expenditures Source: The Ministry of Finance 64
  65. 65. Healthcare Indicators Source: The Ministry of Health 65 (Years) 72 77 70 72 74 76 78 2002 2013 Life Expectancy At Birth Infant and Maternal Mortality Rate (perthousand) (pertenthousand) 31.5 7.4 6.4 1.5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2002 2013 Infant Mortality Rate (Left Axis) Maternal Mortality Rate (Right Axis)
  66. 66. Healthcare Indicators Source: TURKSTAT 39.5 74.7 30 40 50 60 70 80 2003 2013 (%) Patient Satisfaction with Healthcare Services
  67. 67. Opportunities for Cooperation in Healthcare Services Technology & Medical Sciences Medical Service Exports from Turkey Healthcare campuses 67
  68. 68. Tax Incentives for Medical Service Exports 50% tax relief on CIT & PIT Also, • VAT down to 8% from 18% • PIT and CIT exemption for 5 years • Regional Investment Incentives 68
  69. 69. PPP in Healthcare 69 Projects at Funding Phase • Kayseri • Ankara Etlik • Ankara Bilkent • İkitelli • Elazığ • Yozgat • Manisa • Adana • Mersin • Gaziantep • National Public Health Agency Projects at Funding Phase worth almost $6bn Projects at Tendering & Contract Phase • Isparta • Kocaeli • Eskişehir • Bursa • Konya Karatay • İzmir Bayraklı • İstanbul Bakırköy • İstanbul Üsküdar
  70. 70. Labor Market Flexibility 70
  71. 71. 71 Labor Market Improving labor market flexibility Increasing female labor-force participation Improving the relation b/w education & employment Improving the relation b/w employment & social protection
  72. 72. Average Retirement Age 41.0 44.9 61.9 63.3 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Female Male Turkey OECD Source: OECD 72
  73. 73. Labor Participation Rate, Female Source: Fraker, A. and D. Ozdemir, 2011, “Female Labor Force Participation How Does Turkey Compare?”, TEPAV 73 FemaleLaborParticipationRate(%) Income per Capita (log)
  74. 74. 74 Average Usual Weekly Working Hours on the Main Job 48.9 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 Turkey Korea Mexico Greece CzechRepublic Israel SlovakRepublic Poland Iceland Slovenia Hungary Portugal Chile Canada Estonia Spain France Austria Italy NewZealand Finland Luxembourg Belgium Sweden UnitedKingdom Australia Germany Switzerland Ireland Norway Denmark Netherlands (2011,hour) OECD Average: 38.5 Source: OECD
  75. 75. Reducing Energy Import Bill 75
  76. 76. Source: TURKSTAT, Bloomberg Energy Import Bill (Brent,$pbl) EnergyImports(BillionDollars) 76
  77. 77. High Dependence on Energy Imports 72% Total Energy 92% Oil 98% Natural-Gas 77
  78. 78. Developing Local & Renewable Resources Source: Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources Electricity Generation Installed Capacity MW % of Total Current Installed Capacity (2013) 64,044 - Renewable Energy 25,596 40.0 Power Plants Under Construction 14,338 - Renewable Energy 10,804 75.4 In 5-to-7 years 78,382 - Renewable Energy 36,401 46.4 78
  79. 79. Building Nuclear Capacity Akkuyu: JW with Russia Sinop JW with a Japanese-French consortium Working on a 3rd plant 79
  80. 80. Huge Investment Needs in Energy World energy demand is projected to grow by 40% until 2030. Turkey’s energy demand is projected to grow by 146% until 2030. Source: Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources Turkey is ranked 2nd following China in energy demand growth With 36.8bn kwh of consumption, İstanbul outpaced 8 OECD countries 80
  81. 81. Opportunities for Cooperation in Energy Sector $130bn: Turkey’s investment needs over the next decade Privatization of Thermal Power Plants JVs in renewables Improving Energy Efficiency
  82. 82. Privatization of Thermal Power Plants Kemerkoy Yenikoy Çatalağzı Yatağan 82
  83. 83. JVs in Renewable Energy 83 Overthenext decadeinTurkey, • 20,000 MW, wind power generation • 3,000 MW, solar power plants • 600 MW, geothermal power plants • An energy stock market will be established
  84. 84. Improving Energy Efficiency Industry 20% Transportation 15% Construction 30% 84
  85. 85. Agriculture 85
  86. 86. Supporting Agriculture 86Source: OECD 2.1 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 Turkey OECD (2013,%,GDP)
  87. 87. Agriculture in Turkey 87 34.9 24.6 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2002 2012 Employment in Agriculture (%, Total) 12.2 9.3 5 7 9 11 13 2002 2012 Agricultural Production (%, GDP)
  88. 88. Agriculture in Turkey 88 23.7 62.0 15 25 35 45 55 65 2002 2012 Agricultural GDP ($,Bn.) 11th in the world 4th in Europe 11th in the world 4th in Europe 7th in the world 1st in Europe 7th in the world 1st in Europe 1,031 3,612 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 2002 2012 Agricultural GDP Per Capita ($)
  89. 89. Opportunities for Cooperation in Agriculture ₺36.1 bn in 2003-13, Invested in Southeast Anatolian Project 22 dams, almost completed Time for irrigation on the fertile crescent
  90. 90. Supporting Agriculture 90 $150 bn, in Agricultural GDP Top 5 in the world, in agricultural production #1 in Europe, in fishery 8.5-mn-hectare irrigable land (from 5.4-mn-hectarin 2013) Source: Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock 2023 Targets in Agriculture
  91. 91. Strong Long-Term Prospects 91
  92. 92. GDP Per Capita 92 1 099 1 603 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 2002 2013 GDP Per Capita (₺, Real) 8 667 20 500 5 000 7 000 9 000 11 000 13 000 15 000 17 000 19 000 21 000 2002 2013 GDP Per Capita (PPP,$) 3 492 10 818 1 000 3 000 5 000 7 000 9 000 11 000 2002 2013 GDP Per Capita ($) Source: TURKSTAT, Ministry of Development
  93. 93. Real Convergence with AMs 22.7 35.5 37.0 58.6 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 2002 2013 Turkey / USA Turkey /European Union Source: IMF,OECD, Turkstat 93
  94. 94. Determinants of Long-Term Growth Quality of Institutions Demographics Productivity 94
  95. 95. Improving Quality of Institutions Corruption Perception: 2013: 53rd in 177 2002: 65th in 102 Ease of Doing Business: 2013-14: 69th in 185 2006: 84th in 175 Global Competitiveness: 2013: 44th in 148 2005: 71st in 117 95Source: WB, WEF, Transparency International
  96. 96. Corruption Perceptions Index (2002) (65th among 102 countries) 31 44 45 58 59 65 70 73 74 96 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 İtalya Yunanistan Brezilya Meksika Çin TÜRKİYE Arjantin Hindistan Russia Indonesia Source: Transparency International 96
  97. 97. Corruption Perceptions Index (2013) (53rd among 177 countries) Source: Transparency International 53 69 72 80 80 94 106 106 114 127 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 TURKEY Italy Brazil China Greece India Argentina Mexico Indonesia Russia 97
  98. 98. Within the period of 2005-2012, Turkey has ranked higher than Russia, Argentina and Greece.(71st among 117 countries) 31 35 36 38 43 45 47 48 53 54 57 59 67 68 69 71 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Portekiz Hungary SlovakRep. Italy Poland India Greece China Russia Argentina Brazil Mexico Romania Ukraine Indonesia TURKEY Source: World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Index (2005) 98
  99. 99. (44th among 148 countries) Source: World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Index (2013) 29 38 42 44 49 51 55 56 60 63 64 76 78 84 91 104 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 105 China Indonesia Poland TURKEY Italy Portugal Mexico Brazil India Hungary Russia Romania SlovakRep. Ukraine Greece Argentina 99
  100. 100. (84th among 175 countries) Source: World Bank Ease of Doing Business (2006) 62 69 70 71 84 93 97 108 111 122 131 132 134 138 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Mexico Italy Uruguay Romania TURKEY Argentina Russia China Greece Brazil Indonesia Ukraine Croatia India 100
  101. 101. (69th among 189 countries) Source: World Bank Ease of Doing Business (2013) 53 65 69 72 73 88 89 92 96 112 116 120 126 134 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Mexico Italy TURKEY Greece Romania Uruguay Crotia Russia China Ukraine Brazil Indonesia Argentina India 101
  102. 102. Favorable Demographics Source: Eurostat Shareof15-24yearsoldinTotalPop.(%) 102 16.6 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 Spain Italy Andorra Slovenia Greece Portugal Bulgaria Germany Czech Republic Serbia Switzerland Ireland Croatia Estonia Latvia France Austria Hungary Luxembourg Finland Netherlands Ukraine Poland Denmark Sweden United Kingdom Slovakia Norway Malta Lithuania Montenegro Iceland Macedonia Georgia Moldova Turkey Azerbaijan
  103. 103. 2.0 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 TURKEY OECD EU-27 AnnualAverageGrowthRate(%,2001-11) Working Age Population Growth Source: OECD, Eurostat, Turkstat 103
  104. 104. Have Investors Noticed the Transformation? 104
  105. 105. International Companies Operating in Turkey (1000s) Source: Ministry of Economy 105
  106. 106. Foreign Direct Investment Inflows Source: CBRT (Billiondollar) 106 14.8 136.3 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 1980-2002 2003-2013
  107. 107. REER Appreciation Source: CBRT (2003=100) 107
  108. 108. Thank You… 108

×