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Turkey: Infrastructure and Energy

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  • 1. Mehmet Şimşek Minister of Finance Turkey: Infrastructure & Energy Finance Seminar May 29, 2014
  • 2. Political Outlook Economic Outlook Investment Opportunities & Reforms Long-Term Prospects Outline 2
  • 3. Low growth – the new normal? 3
  • 4. Real GDP Source: Turkstat, Eurostat 120 100,0 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 Q1-08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-11 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-13 Q2 Q3 Q4 RealGDP(2007Q4=100,s.a.) 4
  • 5. Real GDP: Turkey vs AMs Source: Turkstat, Eurostat 120 98 100,0 106 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 Q1-08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-11 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-13 Q2 Q3 Q4 RealGDP(2007Q4=100,s.a.) TURKEY US Euro Area 5
  • 6. 6 Real GDP: Turkey vs EMs Source: TURKSTAT, IMF 168,8 100,0 152,8 153,0 180,4 159,0 143,8 95 105 115 125 135 145 155 165 175 185 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Turkey Emerging & Developing Europe LatAm. & the Caribbean Developing Asia excl. China & India Russia South Africa TURKEY RealGDP(2002=100)
  • 7. Upside • Stronger external demand • EU pulling out of recession • Arab Spring becoming less disruptive • TL depreciation Downside • Tighter financial conditions • Geopolitical tensions Growth Outlook 7
  • 8. Domestic Demand 8 Source: Turkstat, BRSA (Index) (Annual,%) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Consumer Confidence Total Credit Growth (rhs)
  • 9. 9 Source: Bloomberg, Turkstat Index(monthly) (6monthrolling) 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Turkey's Exports to Europe (rhs) External Demand
  • 10. -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Domestic demand in AEs Exports of EMs (RHS) 1/ 10 AE Domestic Demand and EM Exports Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook; and IMF staff estimates. 1/ Excludes China. percentchangefromyearearlier
  • 11. Manufacturing Output 11 Source: Turkstat, CBT 100 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Real Sector Confidence Index (s.a.) Industrial Production (rhs) (s.a.)
  • 12. PMI Remaining above 50 12Source: HSBC 51,150,0 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14
  • 13. Job Creation Employmentsince2007(mnpeoples.a.) Source:TURKSTAT 13 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13
  • 14. Unemployment & Labor Participation Rate Source:TURKSTAT 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 Unemployment Rate Labor Force Participation Rate (rhs) (s.a.,%) (s.a.,%) 14
  • 15. 52,1 51,7 50,1 48,2 47,0 45,4 43,5 43,8 43,3 42,1 39,0 36,7 33,8 30 35 40 45 50 55 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Feb.-2014 InformalEmployment(%ofTotalEmployment) Informal Employment Source:TURKSTAT 15
  • 16. Is the pick up in Inflation Temporary? 16
  • 17. Inflation 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: TURKSTAT (CPI,Annual,%) 17
  • 18. 2014 Inflation: Target vs Forecast Energy prices 0.1 ppt Deterioration in pricing behavior 0.3 ppt Tax hikes 0.5ppt Food prices 0.6 ppt Exchange rate depreciation 0.8 ppt Inflation Target: 5.3 % (2014-16 Medium Term Program) Inflation Forecast: 7.6%
  • 19. CBRT’s Inflation Outlook 19 Inflation is to resume downward trend as base effects fade Source: CBRT
  • 20. Upside • TL Depreciation • Unprocessed food prices Downside • Monetary Tightening • Output Gap • Recent Macroprudential Measures Inflation Outlook 20
  • 21. (%) Tight Monetary Policy Source: CBRT 21 8,00 12,00 9,50 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 Oct-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 CBRT Funding Rate O/N Borrowing O/N Lending Policy Rate
  • 22. (%) 22 Kaynak: TCMB Interest Rates on Turkish Lira Bank Loans 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 January-08 April-08 July-08 October-08 January-09 April-09 July-09 October-09 January-10 April-10 July-10 October-10 January-11 April-11 July-11 October-11 January-12 April-12 July-12 October-12 January-13 April-13 July-13 October-13 January-14 April-14 Personal Vehicle Housing Commercial
  • 23. Macroprudential Measures • Single limit for all credit cards • Higher minimum payment • Limit on # of installments Credit card loans • Higher risk weighting for consumer loans Consumer loans • Compulsory advance payment • Term limit for vehicle and consumer loans Auto & other consumer loans • Lower risk weighting for SME & export credits Other Loans 23
  • 24. 24 Source: CBRT Credit Growth 13weekmovingavg.,y-on-y% * Credit Growth is adjusted for exchange rate movements 12,1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Agu-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
  • 25. Turkey’s Soft Spot – Getting Fixed? 25
  • 26. Current Account Deficit Source: CBRT 26 (12MonthRolling,USDbn) -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Jan02 Jul02 Jan03 Jul03 Jan04 Jul04 Jan05 Jul05 Jan06 Jul06 Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Jan14 Current Account Current Account excluding Energy Current Account excluding Energy and Gold Net Gold Exports • 2011: -$4.8 billion • 2012: +$5.7 billion • 2013: -$11.8 billion • 2014 Jan-Mar: $1.7 billion
  • 27. Factors behind high C/A Deficit (2011-13) Strong domestic demand Euro crisis High energy prices Arab Spring 27
  • 28. Upside • Geopolitical tensions • Higher energy prices Downside • Faster recovery in Europe • More stable MENA • Softer domestic demand • Exchange rate weakness • Falling gold imports • Higher tourism revenues Outlook for C/A Deficit 28
  • 29. Turkey's FX Position Source: CBRT, BRSA, Treasury * Assets: CBRT FX Deposits of Treasury+ CBRT Foreign Assets; Liabilities= Public gross external debt+CBRT Liabilities to Non Residents. Data from CBT dated 16 May., 2014; data from gross external debt stock as of Q4-13 ** Data – Mar. 2014 *** Data - Jan 2014 **** Data - Mar. 2013 *****Data-09.05.2014 Billion $ Assets Liabilities Net Position Public Sector* 134,5 122,7 11,8 Banking Sector** 472,1 470,4 1,7 Real Sector*** 92,7 265,4 -172,8 Short Term 77,3 94,2 -16,9 Household**** 191,0 0,5 190,5 FX Deposit ***** 84,5 29
  • 30. Firms Source: CBRT No FX Loans 63% FX Loan w/ export earning 25% FX Loan w/o export earning 12% 9,500 firms Total net sales at 71% of GDP. 30
  • 31. Firms: SMEs and Large Companies Greater amount of FX debt belongs to LARGE COMPANIES 80% out of the 57% of large companies w/ FX debt have export earnings Source: CBRT 31
  • 32. Households: Low Leverage Source: CBRT, ECB (HouseholdLiabilities,%ofGDP,June2013) No FX exposure 65 23 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Denmark Netherlands Ireland United Kingdom Portugal Sweden Spain Finland Euro Area Greece Malta Germany France Luxembourg Belgium Austria Italy Estonia Poland Czech Republic Latvia Slovenia Hungary Slovakia Lithuania Turkey 32
  • 33. Banks: Safe & Sound CapitalAdequacyRatio,% 2002 Mar-14 17,6 2,8 NPLRatioofLoans(%) 15,7 0 5 10 15 20 25 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 Legal Rate: %8 Target Rate 12% Source: BRSA 33
  • 34. Turkey’s Banks - among the Strongest in EMs 34 Source: World Bank
  • 35. Source: World Bank, IMF, BRSA Banking Sector: Able to Absorb Shocks Arm Br Bul Col Cro Egy Fr Gre Indo Ire Ita Latv Leb Lith Mex Phil Pol Rom Rus Serb SoAf Sp Tu Ukr Venz 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 0 50 100 150 200 250 Private Credit/GDP (%) CAR(%) 35
  • 36. Fiscally: Room to Manoeuvre 36
  • 37. 10,8 7,9 4,1 0,1 -1,3 0,2 1,6 5,5 3,0 0,4 1,0 1,0 1,1 -2,0 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Maastricht Criteria: 3% Achieved Maastricht Criteria except 2009 Source: Ministry of Development BudgetDeficit-to-GDP,% Low Deficit 37
  • 38. Budget Deficit (2014)BudgetDeficit-to-GDP,% Source: IMF, OECD, Ministry of Development 4,0 2,9 2,3 1,1 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 OECD EU-28 EMs Turkey 38
  • 39. 39 Upside • Conservative revenue assumptions • Outperformance in non-tax revenues • Improving tax compliance Downside • Weaker domestic demand • Higher VAT rebates Fiscal Outlook
  • 40. Source: IMF Fiscal Strength in EMsGrossPublicDebt/GDP(%) Fiscal Deficit /GDP (%) Arm Br Bul Col Cro Fr Hun Indo Ire Latv Lith Mex Phil Pol Rom Rus Serb Slvk Slov SoAf Sp Tu 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 40
  • 41. 74,0 67,7 59,6 52,7 46,5 39,9 40,0 46,1 42,3 39,1 36,2 36,3 33,0 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Lower Public Debt Debt-to-GDP,% Satisfying Maastricht Criteria since 2004 Maastricht Criteria: 60% Source: Treasury 41
  • 42. Public Debt (2014) Source: IMF, OECD, Treasury Debt-to-GDP,% 111,8 89,0 33,3 33,0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 OECD EU EMs Turkey 42
  • 43. Details of Treasury Guarantee Scheme $3bn cap under 2014 Budget Law PPPs under guarantee • 3rd Bridge • Euroasia Tunnel • Gebze-Izmir Highway Minimum 20% equity Under default • Up to 85% of total FX liabilities are under guarantee • Defaulting parties’ assets will be transferred to the state 43
  • 44. 44 (%) Real & Nominal Interest Rates on Gov’t Debt Source: Treasury 62,7 7,7 10,4 25,4 0,2 0,9 -5 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Apr-14 Interest Rate Real Interest Rate
  • 45. (%) Interest Payments 85,7 14,9 43,2 11,9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Interest Payments/Tax Revenues Interest Payments/Budget Expenditures Source: Ministry of Finance 45
  • 46. Energy 46
  • 47. High Dependence on Energy Imports 72% Total Energy 92% Oil 98% Natural-Gas 47
  • 48. Source: TURKSTAT, Bloomberg Energy Import Bill (Brent,$pbl) EnergyImports(BillionDollars) 48 9,2 60,1 55,9 56,5 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Mar Energy Import Oil Prices (rhs)
  • 49. Energy Prices to Trend down in the Long-Run BRIC slowing down Renewables Shale gas revolution Energy efficiency gains 49
  • 50. Energy Prices 50 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 75 80 85 90 95 100 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Index,2010=100 Brent$/bbl,2010Prices Crude oil, avg spot Energy Prices (rhs) Source: World Bank
  • 51. Developing Local & Renewable Resources Source: Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources 51 Electricity Generation Installed Capacity MW % of Total Current Installed Capacity (2013) 64,044 - Renewable Energy 25,596 40.0 Power Plants Under Construction 14,338 - Renewable Energy 10,804 75.4 In 3-to-5 years 78,382 - Renewable Energy 36,401 46.4
  • 52. 52 Turkish Electricity Market Reform Milestones
  • 53. Renewable Energy Outlook 53 Overthenext decadeinTurkey, • 20,000 MW, wind power generation • 3,000 MW, solar power plants • 600 MW, geothermal power plants • An energy stock market to be established
  • 54. 54 0 6 12 18 24 2010 2011 2012 2013 Module Inverter Other Hardware Soft Cost Costofelectricity,centsperkWh Source: DOE/NREL The Falling Price of Utility-scale Polar Photovoltaic Projects
  • 55. Turkey’s Solar Energy Potential Atlas 55
  • 56. Building Nuclear Capacity Akkuyu: JW with Russia Sinop JW with a Japanese-French consortium Working on a 3rd plant 56
  • 57. Improving Energy Efficiency Industry 20% Transportation 15% Construction 30% 57
  • 58. Turkey is at the crossroads of consumption and production: a natural bridge 58
  • 59. Turkey is at the crossroads of consumption and production: a natural bridge 59 Petroleum Production
  • 60. 60 Several reasons drive investment in the Turkish energy sector. The most important are
  • 61. Transportation 61
  • 62. Infrastructure to Connect and Fuel the Economy There is consensus that infrastructure development has the potential • to promote growth, • increase equity, • and hence reduce poverty* 1 percent increase in the road network led to around 0.5 percentage point increase in productivity**. 62 * Calderon and Serven 2010. ** Infrastructure Fedderke and Kaya (2013)
  • 63. 1,714 Km Total of Motorways 4,387 Km Total of State and Provincial Dual Carriageways Total: 6,101 Km January 1, 2003 2,244 Km Total of Motorways 20,807 Km Total of State and Provincial Dual Carriageways Total: 23,051 Km January 2014 63
  • 64. İSTANBUL EDİRNE ESKİŞEHİR Polatlı ANKARA KONYA İZMİR SİVAS AFYONKARHİSAR KAYSERİ BURSA ERZİNCAN ERZURUM KARS MERSİN ADANA DİYARBAKIR ELAZIĞ MALATYA ZONGULDAK SAMSUN Bandırma VAN MUŞ BİLECİK ÇANKIRI KIRIKKALE TEKİRDAĞ İZMİT BALIKESİR AYDIN DENİZLİ BURDUR ISPARTA UŞAK MANİSA KARAMAN NİĞDE OSMANİYE K.MARAŞ AMASYA BATMAN MARDİN Yerköy KARABÜK Yenişehir 405 km 212 km 533 km 624 km 105 km Completed (888 km) Under Construction (1796 km) Bidding Phase (454 km) Project Phase (354 km) GAZİANTEP Çobanbey 64 High Speed Railway Projects
  • 65. Future Railways Investments By 2023 $ 45 billion worth of investment 10,000 km worth of new high speed railway network 4,000 km of new conventional line 65
  • 66. The 3rd Airport in Istanbul, Largest of All 150 million passengers An area of 90 million m2 Construction Cost: €10 billion Rent (25 Years): €22.2 billion 66
  • 67. İstanbul Antalya İzmir Gaziantep Trabzon Kayseri Samsun Erzurum Kars Van Diyarbakır Malatya Dalaman Bodrum Sivas Elazığ Bursa Ankara Ağrı Erzincan Muş Batman Mardin Şanlıurfa Adana Konya Denizli KKTC THY THY PegasusOnur Air SUN Express ATLAS JET Tokat Zonguldak BoraJet Edremit Siirt Gazipaşa Çorlu KKTC Iğdır Gökçeada Hata y Adana Antalya İzmir Gaziantep Trabzon Kayseri Ankara Bursa Samsun Erzurum Kars Van Mardin Malatya Dalaman Bodrum Konya Sivas Elazığ Sinop Nevşehir Adıyaman Batman Çanakkale Denizli Eskişehir Isparta Kahramanmaraş Merzifon Muş Uşak Ağrı Tekirda ğ Erzincan Diyarbakır Şanlıurf a İstanbul Kastamonu Bingöl Şırnak 2014 6 Airlines 7 Centers 52 Airports 2003 2 Centers 26 Airports In domestic lines the fastest growing country in Europe TURKEY Flight Points (Domestic Lines) 67
  • 68. 2003 60 Points SunExpressPegasus ATLAS JET Onur Air 2014 236 Points THY THY SunExpress Increase : 294% 68 Flight Points (International Lines)
  • 69. Projects of the Century - Under Construction Tube Tunnel 3rd Bridge Izmit Gulf Transit Istanbul-İzmir Highway High-Speed Train through Ankara-Bursa-Istanbul 69
  • 70. Projects of the Century – Planned Channel Istanbul 70
  • 71. A Substantial Expansion of Capacity Both the levels and quality of infrastructure in Turkey indicate considerable improvement Road density (46.9 km per 100 sq km of land area) is higher than that of China and Brazil (41.8 and 18.6 respectively)* 71 Source: WDI (2012) 49.6 km/100 sq km 41.8 km/100 sq km 18.6 km/100 sq km
  • 72. Improvements in all Dimensions of Infrastructure 72 Source: World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Report)
  • 73. Other Reforms & Priorities 73 Moving up the Value-Chain Enhancing Human Capital Stock Increasing Labor Market Flexibility Deepening Capital Markets Combatting Shadow Economy Reducing Regional Development Gaps
  • 74. Strong Long-Term Prospects 74
  • 75. GDP per Capita Low-Income $1,035-or less Lower-Middle-Income $1,036-$4,085 Upper-Middle-Income $4,086-$12,615 75 High-Income $12,616 and up 2002 $ 3,492 2013 $ 10,782 2016 $ 12,670 Source: TURKSTAT, Medium-Term Program, WB
  • 76. Priorities for Sustainable Growth Improving Competitiveness Innovation-based Growth Attracting FDI Financial deepening R&D Corporate Governance Building a more Equitable Society Inclusive Growth Education & Skills Childcare & Family Support Flexible Labor Market Improving Quality of Institutions Open-access Growth Rule of Law Independent and Arms- length Regulation Improving Business Climate Public Finance Management 76
  • 77. Achieving Sustainable Development 10th Development Plan (2014-18) Qualified Individiuals, Stronger Society Innovative Production, Sustainable Growth Liveable Spaces, Sustainable Environment International Cooperation for Development 25 Transformation Programs of High Priority Implemention, Monitoring, and Evaluation 77
  • 78. Determinants of Long-Term Growth Quality of Institutions Demographics Productivity 78
  • 79. Improving Quality of Institutions Corruption Perceptions: 2013: 53rd in 177 2002: 65th in 102 Ease of Doing Business: 2013-14: 69th in 185 2006: 84th in 175 Global Competitiveness: 2013: 44th in 148 2005: 71st in 117 Source: WB, WEF, Transparency International 79
  • 80. Corruption Perceptions Index (2002) (65th among 102 countries) 31 44 45 58 59 65 70 73 74 96 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Italy Greece Brazil Mexico China TURKEY Argentina India Russia Indonesia Source: Transparency International 80
  • 81. Corruption Perceptions Index (2013) (53rd among 177 countries) Source: Transparency International 53 69 72 80 80 94 106 106 114 127 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 TURKEY Italy Brazil China Greece India Argentina Mexico Indonesia Russia 81
  • 82. Within the period of 2005-2012, Turkey has ranked higher than Russia, Argentina and Greece.(71st among 117 countries) 31 35 36 38 43 45 47 48 53 54 57 59 67 68 69 71 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Portekiz Hungary SlovakRep. Italy Poland India Greece China Russia Argentina Brazil Mexico Romania Ukraine Indonesia TURKEY Source: World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Index (2005) 82
  • 83. (44th among 148 countries) Source: World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Index (2013) 29 38 42 44 49 51 55 56 60 63 64 76 78 84 91 104 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 105 China Indonesia Poland TURKEY Italy Portugal Mexico Brazil India Hungary Russia Romania SlovakRep. Ukraine Greece Argentina 83
  • 84. (84th among 175 countries) Source: World Bank Ease of Doing Business (2006) 62 69 70 71 84 93 97 108 111 122 131 132 134 138 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Mexico Italy Uruguay Romania TURKEY Argentina Russia China Greece Brazil Indonesia Ukraine Croatia India 84
  • 85. (69th among 189 countries) Source: World Bank Ease of Doing Business (2013) 53 65 69 72 73 88 89 92 96 112 116 120 126 134 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Mexico Italy TURKEY Greece Romania Uruguay Crotia Russia China Ukraine Brazil Indonesia Argentina India 85
  • 86. Favorable Demographics Source: Eurostat Shareof15-24yearsoldinTotalPop.(%) 16,6 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 Spain Italy Andorra Slovenia Greece Portugal Bulgaria Germany Czech Republic Serbia Switzerland Ireland Croatia Estonia Latvia France Austria Hungary Luxembourg Finland Netherlands Ukraine Poland Denmark Sweden United Kingdom Slovakia Norway Malta Lithuania Montenegro Iceland Macedonia Georgia Moldova Turkey Azerbaijan 86
  • 87. 1,7 0,7 0,2 0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 TURKEY OECD EU-28 AnnualAverageGrowthRate(%,2001-13) Working Age Population Growth Source: OECD, Eurostat, Turkstat 87
  • 88. Thank You… 88

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