Levant Business Union & World Bank Conference

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Levant Business Union & World Bank Conference

  1. 1. Mehmet Şimşek Minister of Finance Over the Horizon: A New Levant June 12, 2014
  2. 2. Outline 2 Overview of the Levant & MENA Outlook for the Levant & MENA Outlook for Turkey
  3. 3. Overview of the Levant & MENA 3
  4. 4. The Levant 4 Egypt Iraq Syria Lebanon State of Palestine Jordan Turkey
  5. 5. The Levant & MENA: A Sizeable Market (GDP) Yemen $58 5Source: IMF, 2013 The Levant: $1.4 trillion MENA: $3.1 trillion MENA + Turkey: $3.9 trillion
  6. 6. The Levant & MENA: A Sizeable Market (Population) Yemen $58 6Source: IMF, 2013 The Levant: 224 million people MENA: 389 million people MENA + Turkey: 465 million people
  7. 7. Extremely favorable demographics Turkey: 50% 7
  8. 8. Outlook for the Levant & MENA 8
  9. 9. Political Outlook Short-Term • Uncertainty • Disruption Long-Term • Democracy • Prosperity • Stability 9
  10. 10. Economic Outlook 10
  11. 11. 11 Growth RealGDP(%,AnnualGrowth) Source: IMF 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Average 2000–08 Average 2009–12 2013 2014 MENA Levant
  12. 12. 12 Inflation CPI(%,Annual) Source: IMF 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Average 2000–08 Average 2009–12 2013 2014 MENA Levant
  13. 13. Unemployment 13 YouthUnemployment(%) Unemployment (%) Source: Masood Ahmed, Director, IMF, published in the World Economic Forum’s Addressing the 100 Million Youth Challenge—Perspectives on Youth Employment in the Arab World in 2012, June 2012
  14. 14. 14 Fiscal FiscalBalance(%,GDP) Source: IMF -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 Average 2000–08 Average 2009–12 2013 2014 MENA Levant
  15. 15. Current Account Balance 15 CurrentAccountBalance(%,GDP) Source: IMF -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Average 2000–08 Average 2009–12 2013 2014 MENA Levant
  16. 16. Intra-Regional Trade & Investment 16
  17. 17. Trade Volume (%, GDP) 17 Source: Behar, A. and C. Freund, 2011, The Trade Performance of the Middle East and North Africa Total Trade Excluding Oil Excluding Natural Resources MENA 47% 12% 8% WORLD 22% 19% 18%
  18. 18. Intra-MENA Exports (%) Total Excluding Oil Excluding Natural Resources 1994-97 10% 26% 31% 1998-2001 9% 23% 30% 2002-05 11% 24% 35% 2006-09 11% 25% 38% 18 Source: WTO, World Trade Report 2011 Behar, A. and C. Freund, 2011, The Trade Performance of the Middle East and North Africa North America 48% Asia 52% Europe 73%
  19. 19. Total Trade 19 Source: WTO, 2012 MENA Exports: $1,508 bn MENA Imports: $981 bn Levant Exports: $286 bn Levant Imports: $407 bn
  20. 20. Trade Links w/ Turkey Turkey Turkey’s Exports to the Levant: $17.8 bn 10.5% of Levant Imports* Turkey’s Exports to MENA: $41.5 bn 4.2% of MENA Imports 20Source: TURKSTAT, WTO, 2012 * Levant excl. Turkey Turkey’s Imports from the Levant: $2.3 bn 1.2% of Levant Exports* Turkey’s Imports from MENA: $25.2 bn 1.7% of MENA Exports
  21. 21. Source: TURKSTAT Share of the Levant in Turkish Exports (%) 21 2.5 11.7 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2002 2013
  22. 22. Source: TURKSTAT Share of MENA in Turkish Exports (%) 22 12.1 27.3 5 10 15 20 25 30 2002 2013
  23. 23. Investments: FDI Flows 2002-12 MENA FDI Flows: Inflows: $667.4 bn Outflows: $273.1 bn 23 Source: UNCTAD, 2012 2002-12 Levant FDI Flows: Inflows: $256.8 bn Outflows: $33 bn
  24. 24. Intra-region FDI Flows Turkey 24 Source: CBRT 2002-13 Turkey –MENA FDI Flows: Inflows: $13.1bn Outflows: $5.1 bn 2002-13 Turkey –Levant FDI Flows: Inflows: $1.1 bn Outflows: $0.3 bn
  25. 25. Structural Issues 25
  26. 26. Common Challenges 26 Managing Political Transition Ensuring Macroeconomic Stability Diversification Enhancing Human Capital Stock Improving Quality of Institutions Improving Business Environment Improving Infrastructure Job Creation Increasing Labor Market Flexibility Moving up the Value Chain Combatting Shadow Economy Reducing Poverty
  27. 27. Outlook for Turkey 27
  28. 28. Political Stability 28 15 Months 138 Months 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Average Lifetime of Governments during 1950-2002 AK Party Governments Since 2002 1923-2002 Average Lifetime of Governments: 17 months 2002-14 Political Stability 2023 Vision
  29. 29. 29 Rapidly Growing Economy 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 1993-2002 2003-13 Kaynak: TURKSTAT RealGDP(%)
  30. 30. 30 Real GDP: Turkey vs EMs Source: TURKSTAT, IMF 168.8 100.0 152.8 153.0 180.4 159.0 143.8 95 105 115 125 135 145 155 165 175 185 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Turkey Emerging & Developing Europe LatAm. & the Caribbean Developing Asia excl. China & India Russia South Africa TURKEY RealGDP(2002=100)
  31. 31. Real Convergence with the EUIncomePerCapita(PPP,%) Kaynak: IMF, OECD, TURKSTAT 22.7 36.0 37.0 59.6 10 20 30 40 50 60 2002 2013 Turkey /USA Turkey /European Union 31
  32. 32. Outlook for Growth Risks are balanced 32 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 3 4 5 6 2013 2014 2015 2016
  33. 33. Inflation 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: TURKSTAT (CPI,Annual,%) 33
  34. 34. 10.8 7.9 4.1 0.1 -1.3 0.2 1.6 5.5 3.0 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.1 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Maastricht Criteria: 3% Achieved Maastricht Criteria except 2009 Source: Ministry of Development BudgetDeficit-to-GDP,% Low Deficit 34
  35. 35. Budget Deficit (2014)BudgetDeficit-to-GDP,% Source: IMF, OECD, Ministry of Development 4.0 2.9 2.3 1.1 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 OECD EU-28 EMs Turkey 35
  36. 36. 74.0 67.7 59.6 52.7 46.5 39.9 40.0 46.1 42.3 39.1 36.2 36.3 33.0 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Lower Public Debt Debt-to-GDP,% Satisfying Maastricht Criteria since 2004 Maastricht Criteria: 60% Source: Treasury 36
  37. 37. Public Debt (2014) Source: IMF, OECD, Treasury Debt-to-GDP,% 111.8 89.0 33.3 33.0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 OECD EU EMs Turkey 37
  38. 38. Banks: Safe & Sound CapitalAdequacyRatio,% 2002 Mar-14 17.6 2.8 NPLRatioofLoans(%) 15.7 0 5 10 15 20 25 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 Legal Rate: %8 Target Rate 12% Source: BRSA 38
  39. 39. Turkey’s Banks - among the Strongest in EMs 39 Source: World Bank
  40. 40. Low Household Leverage Source: CBRT, ECB (HouseholdLiabilities,%ofGDP,September2013) 40 No FX exposure 65 24 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Denmark Netherlands Ireland United Kingdom Portugal Sweden Spain Finland Euro Area Greece Malta Germany France Belgium Luxembourg Austria Italy Estonia Poland Czech Republic Slovenia Slovakia Hungary Turkey Lithuania Latvia
  41. 41. Current Account Deficit: Getting Fixed? Source: CBRT 41 (12MonthRolling,USDbn) -60.0 -10.0 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Jan02 Jul02 Jan03 Jul03 Jan04 Jul04 Jan05 Jul05 Jan06 Jul06 Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Jan14 Current Account Current Account excluding Energy Current Account excluding Energy and Gold Net Gold Exports • 2011: -$4.8 billion • 2012: +$5.7 billion • 2013: -$11.8 billion • 2014 Jan-Mar: $1.7 billion
  42. 42. Upside • Geopolitical tensions • Higher energy prices Downside • Faster recovery in Europe • More stable MENA • Softer domestic demand • Exchange rate weakness • Falling gold imports • Higher tourism revenues Outlook for C/A Deficit 42
  43. 43. Structural Reforms & Priorities 43
  44. 44. Chapter- 1 44 Enhancing Human Capital Stock Local & Renewable Energy Improving Infrastructure
  45. 45. Enhancing Human Capital Stock 45
  46. 46. Source: Ministry of Finance Share of Education Budget(%) 46
  47. 47. Investment Incentives in Education Sector 18% VAT down to 8% 50% tax relief on CIT & PIT for exports in education PIT and CIT exemption for 5 years on proceeds gained from education services 5th zone incentives for investments in pre-school, elementary, secondary and high school Allocation of public real estate to investors 47
  48. 48. Gross Schooling Rates Source: Ministry of Development 48
  49. 49. 12 Years of Mandatory Education Austral. Austria Belg. Canada Chile Czech R. Den. Estonia Finland France Italy Japan Lux Mex New Zeal. Poland Port. Spain Switz. TURKEY UK USA 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 9.5 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.5 AverageYearsatSchoolofPop’nover25Years Income per Capita (PPP, log) Source: OECD 49
  50. 50. 2002 91.1 girls per 100 boys 2012 101.8 girls per 100 boys Improving Girls’ Education 50
  51. 51. Source: OECD 76 74 47 51 38 46 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 Science Math 2006 2009 2012 Enhancing Human Capital Stock: PISA Results, Gap b/w Turkey & OECD 51
  52. 52. Improving Quality of Education With Fatih Project, we are providing our children with Broadband Internet Access Smart Boards Tablet PCs Other Information Technology Tools 52
  53. 53. Local & Renewable Energy 53
  54. 54. High Dependence on Energy Imports 72% Total Energy 92% Oil 98% Natural-Gas 54
  55. 55. Source: TURKSTAT, Bloomberg Energy Import Bill (Brent,$pbl) EnergyImports(Billion$) 55 9.2 60.1 55.9 56.4 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Apr Energy Import Oil Prices (rhs)
  56. 56. Developing Local & Renewable Resources Source: Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources Electricity Generation Installed Capacity MW % of Total Current Installed Capacity (2013) 64,044 - Renewable Energy 25,596 40.0 Power Plants Under Construction 14,338 - Renewable Energy 10,804 75.4 In 3-to-5 years 78,382 - Renewable Energy 36,401 46.4 56
  57. 57. Renewable Energy OutlookOverthenext decadeinTurkey, • 20,000 MW, wind power generation • 3,000 MW, solar power plants • 600 MW, geothermal power plants • An energy stock market to be established 57
  58. 58. 58 0 6 12 18 24 2010 2011 2012 2013 Module Inverter Other Hardware Soft Cost Costofelectricity,centsperkWh Source: DOE/NREL The Falling Price of Utility-scale Polar Photovoltaic Projects
  59. 59. Turkey’s Solar Energy Potential Atlas 59
  60. 60. Building Nuclear Capacity Akkuyu: JV with Russia Sinop JV with a Japanese-French consortium Working on a 3rd plant 60
  61. 61. Improving Energy Efficiency Industry 20% Transportation 15% Construction 30% 61
  62. 62. Improving Infrastructure 62
  63. 63. Infrastructure to Connect and Fuel the Economy There is consensus that infrastructure development has the potential • to promote growth, • increase equity, • and hence reduce poverty 1 percent increase in the road network led to around 0.5 percentage point increase in productivity**. 63 * Calderon and Serven 2010. ** Infrastructure Fedderke and Kaya (2013)
  64. 64. 1,714 Km Total of Motorways 4,387 Km Total of State and Provincial Dual Carriageways Total: 6,101 Km January 1, 2003 2,244 Km Total of Motorways 20,807 Km Total of State and Provincial Dual Carriageways Total: 23,051 Km January 2014 64
  65. 65. İSTANBUL EDİRNE ESKİŞEHİR Polatlı ANKARA KONYA İZMİR SİVAS AFYONKARHİSAR KAYSERİ BURSA ERZİNCAN ERZURUM KARS MERSİN ADANA DİYARBAKIR ELAZIĞ MALATYA ZONGULDAK SAMSUN Bandırma VAN MUŞ BİLECİK ÇANKIRI KIRIKKALE TEKİRDAĞ İZMİT BALIKESİR AYDIN DENİZLİ BURDUR ISPARTA UŞAK MANİSA KARAMAN NİĞDE OSMANİYE K.MARAŞ AMASYA BATMAN MARDİN Yerköy KARABÜK Yenişehir 405 km 212 km 533 km 624 km 105 km Completed (888 km) Under Construction (1796 km) Bidding Phase (454 km) Project Phase (354 km) GAZİANTEP Çobanbey 65 High Speed Railway Projects
  66. 66. Future Railways Investments By 2023 $ 45 billion worth of investment 10,000 km worth of new high speed railway network 4,000 km of new conventional line 66
  67. 67. İstanbul Antalya İzmir Gaziantep Trabzon Kayseri Samsun Erzurum Kars Van Diyarbakır Malatya Dalaman Bodrum Sivas Elazığ Bursa Ankara Ağrı Erzincan Muş Batman Mardin Şanlıurfa Adana Konya Denizli KKTC THY THY PegasusOnur Air SUN Express ATLAS JET Tokat Zonguldak BoraJet Edremit Siirt Gazipaşa Çorlu KKTC Iğdır Gökçeada Hata y Adana Antalya İzmir Gaziantep Trabzon Kayseri Ankara Bursa Samsun Erzurum Kars Van Mardin Malatya Dalaman Bodrum Konya Sivas Elazığ Sinop Nevşehir Adıyaman Batman Çanakkale Denizli Eskişehir Isparta Kahramanmaraş Merzifon Muş Uşak Ağrı Tekirda ğ Erzincan Diyarbakır Şanlıurf a İstanbul Kastamonu Bingöl Şırnak 2014 6 Airlines 7 Centers 52 Airports 2003 2 Centers 26 Airports In domestic lines the fastest growing country in Europe TURKEY Flight Points (Domestic Lines) 67
  68. 68. 2003 60 Points SunExpressPegasus ATLAS JET Onur Air 2014 236 Points THY THY SunExpress Increase : 294% 68 Flight Points (International Lines)
  69. 69. 3rd Airport in Istanbul, Largest in the World 69 150 million passengers 6.5 million km2 apron 6 Runways 4 Terminals
  70. 70. Projects of the Century - Under Construction Tube Tunnel 3rd Bridge Izmit Gulf Transit Istanbul-İzmir Highway High-Speed Train through Ankara-Bursa-Istanbul 70
  71. 71. Projects of the Century – Planned Channel Istanbul 71
  72. 72. Chapter- 2 72 Deepening Capital Markets Moving up the Value-Chain Reducing İnformal Economy
  73. 73. Deepening Capital Markets 73
  74. 74. 2009 72nd 2014 47th 2018 25th Global Financial Centres Index Source: Global Financial Centres Index 15 45 47 60 63 70 75 77 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Rio de Jeneiro ISTANBUL Warsaw Mauritius Mexico Prague Budapest (2014) 74
  75. 75. Strengthening the legal framework Improving physical infrastructure Simplifying tax system Providing financial education Istanbul as a Finance Center 75 Main Objective: Deepening Financial Markets
  76. 76. Sukuk 76 Sep-12: Sukuk issued for $1.5bn in international market Oct-12: Sukuk denominated in TL issued for TL1.6bn Feb-13: Sukuk issued for TL1.5bn Aug-13: Sukuk issued for TL1.8bn Oct-13: Sukuk issued for $1.3bn Feb-14: Sukuk issued for TL1.3bn Similar to eurobonds, internt’l holders are not s.t. w/holding tax
  77. 77. Increasing Savings: Private Pensions 25% State Contribution 1.4 million new participants and TL8.5bn funds since end-2012 77
  78. 78. Support for Start Ups Incentives for Biz Angels Incentives for VCs 78
  79. 79. Moving up the Value-Chain 79
  80. 80. Source: The Scientific and Technological Council of Turkey * % of GDP R&D Spending* 80 •3.00%2023 •1.8%2018 • 0.92%2012 • 0.53% 2002
  81. 81. Patent Applications Source: TPI 81 1,874 12,053 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 2002 2013
  82. 82. Trade Mark Applications(2012,Thousand) 86 64 54 44 41 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 TURKEY France Germany Italy Spain England 108* Source: Turkish Patent Institute *TURKEY 2013 Data 82
  83. 83. Tax Incentives for R&D R&D Expenditure • Corporate income tax relief • Personal income tax relief • State contributions to social security premiums • Exemption from stamp duty • Capital support for young entrepreneurs Strengthening the link b/w R&D and Commercial Activities • 50% tax relief on commercial use of patents, trademarks… • VAT exemption on patents, trademarks… 83 Since 2008, 155 R&D Centers
  84. 84. Reducing Informal Economy 84
  85. 85. 52.1 51.7 50.1 48.2 47.0 45.4 43.5 43.8 43.3 42.1 39.0 36.7 33.8 30 35 40 45 50 55 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Feb.-2014 InformalEmployment(%ofTotalEmployment) Reduced Informal Employment Source:TURKSTAT 85
  86. 86. Lowered Size of Shadow Economy (%, GDP) 32.2 31.5 30.7 30.4 29.1 28.4 28.9 28.3 27.7 27.2 26.5 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Schneider, 2013 Down 6 percentage points 86
  87. 87. Size of Shadow Economy (%, GDP) Source: Schneider, 2013 But still higher than EU average 31.2 28.4 28.4 28.0 27.6 26.5 25.5 25.2 24.3 23.8 23.6 23.1 22.1 21.1 19.0 18.6 18.4 16.4 15.5 15.0 13.9 13.6 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.2 9.9 9.7 9.1 8.0 7.5 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Bulgaria Romania Crotia Latvia Estonia TURKEY Lithuania S.Cyprus Malta Poland Greece Slovenia Hungary Italy Portugal Spain EUAverage Belgium CzechRep. Slovakia Sweeden Norway Denmark Finland Germany Ireland France UnitedKingdom Netherlands Luxemburg Austria SizeofInformalEconomy(2013,%,GDP) 87
  88. 88. Global Investors in Turkey 88
  89. 89. International Companies Operating in Turkey Source: Ministry of Economy 89 3,211 4,302 6,341 9,091 12,379 16,081 19,096 21,897 25,168 29,526 33,807 37,296 38,116 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Mar
  90. 90. Foreign Direct Investment Inflows Source: CBRT (Billiondollar) 90 14.8 140.6 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 1980-2002 2003-2014 Mar
  91. 91. Strong Long-Term Prospects 91
  92. 92. Determinants of Long-Term Growth Quality of Institutions Demographics Productivity 92
  93. 93. Improving Quality of Institutions Corruption Perceptions: 2013: 53rd in 177 2002: 65th in 102 Ease of Doing Business: 2013-14: 69th in 185 2006: 84th in 175 Global Competitiveness: 2013: 44th in 148 2005: 71st in 117 Source: WB, WEF, Transparency International 93
  94. 94. Corruption Perceptions Index (2002) (65th among 102 countries) Source: Transparency International 94 18 36 40 52 62 65 95 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Israel Tunisia Jordan Morocco Egypt TURKEY Azerbaijan
  95. 95. Corruption Perceptions Index (2013) (53th among 177 countries) Source: Transparency International 95 26 28 36 53 57 61 63 66 69 77 91 94 114 127 127 144 167 168 171 172 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 UAE Qatar Israel TURKEY Bahrain Oman SaudiArabia Jordan Kuwait Tunisia Morocco Algeria Egypt Lebanon Azerbaijan Iran Yemen Syria Iraq Libya
  96. 96. Within the period of 2005-2012, Turkey has ranked higher than Russia, Argentina and Greece.(71st among 125 countries) Source: World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Index (2005) 96 23 32 37 42 46 49 50 52 71 76 82 10 30 50 70 90 Israel UAE Tunisia Jordan Qatar Kuwait Bahrain Egypt TURKEY Morocco Algeria
  97. 97. (44th among 148 countries) Source: World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Index (2013) 97 13 19 20 27 33 36 43 44 68 77 82 83 100 103 108 118 145 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 Qatar UAE SaudiArabia Israel Oman Kuwait Bahrain TURKEY Jordan Morocco Iran Tunisia Algeria Lebanon Libya Egypt Yemen
  98. 98. (84th among 175 countries) Source: World Bank Ease of Doing Business (2006) 98 26 35 40 52 68 73 77 84 87 101 113 117 123 135 140 165 20 50 80 110 140 170 Israel SaudiArabia Kuwait Oman UAE Jordan Tunisia TURKEY Lebanon Yemen Iran Morocco Algeria Syria Iraq Egypt
  99. 99. (69th among 189 countries) Source: World Bank Ease of Doing Business (2013) 99 23 26 35 46 47 48 51 69 87 104 111 119 128 133 151 152 153 165 20 45 70 95 120 145 170 UAE SaudiArabia Israel Bahrain Oman Qatar Tunisia TURKEY Morocco Kuwait Lebanon Jordan Egypt Yemen Iraq Iran Algeria Syria
  100. 100. Favorable Demographics Source: Eurostat Shareof15-24yearsoldinTotalPop.(%) 16.6 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 Spain Italy Andorra Slovenia Greece Portugal Bulgaria Germany Czech Republic Serbia Switzerland Ireland Croatia Estonia Latvia France Austria Hungary Luxembourg Finland Netherlands Ukraine Poland Denmark Sweden United Kingdom Slovakia Norway Malta Lithuania Montenegro Iceland Macedonia Georgia Moldova Turkey Azerbaijan 100
  101. 101. 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 TURKEY OECD EU-28 AnnualAverageGrowthRate(%,2001-13) Working Age Population Growth Source: OECD, Eurostat, Turkstat 101
  102. 102. Labor Participation Rate, Female Source: Turkstat, OECD 102 (%,Feb2014) 23.3 28.7 14.6 24.1 32.3 39.2 70.4 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2004 Total Illeterate Less than high school High school Vocational high school Higher education OECD Average: 62,3
  103. 103. Labor Participation Rate, Female Source: Fraker, A. and D. Ozdemir, 2011, “Female Labor Force Participation How Does Turkey Compare?”, TEPAV FemaleLaborParticipationRate(%) Income per Capita (log) 103
  104. 104. Boosting Productivity Enhancing Human Capital Stock Investing in infrastructure Supporting R&D and Innovation 104
  105. 105. GDP per Capita Low-Income $1,035-or less Lower-Middle-Income $1,036-$4,085 Upper-Middle-Income $4,086-$12,615 105 High-Income $12,616 and up 2002 $ 3,492 2013 $ 10,782 2016 $ 12,670 Source: TURKSTAT, Medium-Term Program, WB
  106. 106. GDP Source: TURKSTAT, Medium-Term Program,PwC 2002 2050 2002 $ 230 billion 2050 $ 5 trillion 2013 $ 820 billion 2023 $ 2 trillion 106
  107. 107. Ambitious Targets Source: IMF, PricewaterhouseCoopers 1. USA 2. China 3. India 4. Japan 5. Germany 6. Russia 8. UK 7. Brazil 9. France 10. Mexico 11. Italy 12. South Korea 13. Canada 14. Spain 15. Indonesia 16. Turkey 17. Australia 18. Iran 19. Saudi Arabia 20. Taiwan 2013 (GDP-PPP) Long-Term Top 10 in the World Top 3 in Europe 6th in Europe 16th in the World 107 "We choose to go to the Moon" – J. F. Kennedy, September 12, 1962 Apollo 11 was the 1st manned mission to land on the Moon, July 20, 1969
  108. 108. 108 ‫شكرا‬ ‫تكسرا‬ ‫اجتمعن‬ ‫إذا‬ ‫الرماح‬ ‫تابى‬ ‫احادا‬ ‫تكسرت‬ ‫افترقنا‬ ‫وإذا‬ Teşekkürler! Thank you!

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