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  • State contribution up to 25% of the annual gross minimum wage. 3 years  15%6 years  35%10 years  60%Retirement  100% of the 25% State ContributionParticipants:28.12.2012: 3.119.03331.05.2013: 3.619.443

Eurasia v3 18.06.2013 Eurasia v3 18.06.2013 Presentation Transcript

  • Turkish Economy The Eurasia Forum June 18, 2013 Mehmet Şimşek Minister of Finance
  • Outline Recent Financial Turmoil Short-Term Outlook Reform Agenda Turkey’s Long-Term Prospects 2
  • Recent Financial Turmoil 3
  • Impact of Gezi Park Events on the Economy Limited adverse impact on tourism and some on portfolio inflows • No significant impact on production and/or demand • Price, fiscal, employment, investment & growth impacts are negligible But NO macro-critical impact
  • Impact on Portfolio Inflows Outflow from Treasury Bonds: $6mn** o.w. $2mn foreign** Outflow from Borsa Istanbul: $12bn* o.w. $8.8bn foreign** Source: CBRT * 05/31/2013 - 06/03/2013 ** 05/31/2013 - 06/07/2013
  • Impact on Portfolio Inflows 3 Sources Pricing of IG rating Probable end of QE cycle Gezi events
  • IG Grade Impact 100 128 118 110 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 1 2 3 4 BIST Index At Fitch upgrade (Index=100) 11.05.2012 At its peak (Around Moody’s Upgrade) 05.22.2013 Before Gezi Park Events 05.31.2013 Most Recently 06.14.2013 63.5 66.3 65.4 65.7 62 63 64 65 66 67 1 2 3 4 Share of Foreigners in BIST At Fitch upgrade 11.05.2012 At its peak (Around Moody’s Upgrade) 05.22.2013 Before Gezi Park Events 05.31.2013 Most Recently 06.03.2013
  • Rise in Bond Yields in EMs with CAD 8Source: Bloomberg 10-yearbondyieldchangeasbasisptsince2May2013 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Colombia S.Africa Turkey Brazil Poland Mexico Indonesia Hungary Czech Republic Chile
  • Stock Market Index in C/A Deficit Creating Ems* 9 Source: Bloomberg *C/A deficit creating EMs include Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Poland, Romania, South Africa, and Turkey. 10.1 7.4 1.9 -1.9 -2.5 -5.2 -5.9 -8.0 -9.8 -10.0 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Poland Hungary S.Africa CzechRepublic Colombia Mexico Indonesia Chile Turkey Brazil Percentagechangesince2May2013
  • Portfolio Outflows 10 Source: EPFR Emerging Markets Bond Flows (Net) -$4.3 bn Equity Flows (Net) -$13.6 bn
  • FX Volatility (30-Day M.A.) 11 Source: Bloomberg * Volatility is calculated using 30-day moving average. (06.14.2013) 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 S.Africa Hungary Indonesia Czech Republic Poland Mexico Brazil Turkey Chile Colombia
  • Short-Term Economic Outlook 12
  • Outlook for 2013 and Onwards Faster Growth Slight Increase in C/A Deficit Declining Inflation Lower Unemployment 13 Falling Debt & Deficit
  • Real Economic Activity Indicators Source: CBRT, TURKSTAT 15 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Industrial Production Index*(c.a.) Manufacturing Index* Capacity Utilization** * Annual percent change ** Annual difference
  • PMI Source: HSBC 16 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 2007-1 3 5 7 9 11 2008-1 3 5 7 9 11 2009-1 3 5 7 9 11 2010-1 3 5 7 9 11 2011-1 3 5 7 9 11 2012-1 3 5 7 9 11 2013-1 3 5 Above 50 last ten months
  • Confidence Indices Source: CBRT, TURKSTAT 17 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 2007-1 3 5 7 9 11 2008-1 3 5 7 9 11 2009-1 3 5 7 9 11 2010-1 3 5 7 9 11 2011-1 3 5 7 9 11 2012-1 3 5 7 9 11 2013-1 3 5 Real Sector Confidence Index (Left) Consumer Confidence Index (Right)
  • (%) 18 Monetary Policy Source: CBRT 3.5 6.5 4.5 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 October11 October11 December11 December11 January12 February12 March12 April12 May12 Jun12 July12 August12 September12 October12 November12 December12 January13 February13 March13 April13 May13 May13 CBRT Funding Rate O/N Borrowing O/N Lending Policy Rate
  • (%) 19 Source: CBRT Lending Rates 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 1/4/2008 4/4/2008 7/4/2008 10/4/2008 1/4/2009 4/4/2009 7/4/2009 10/4/2009 1/4/2010 4/4/2010 7/4/2010 10/4/2010 1/4/2011 4/4/2011 7/4/2011 10/4/2011 1/4/2012 4/4/2012 7/4/2012 10/4/2012 1/4/2013 4/4/2013 Personal Vehicle Housing Commercial
  • 20 * Credit Growth is adjusted for exchange rate movements Source: CBRT Credit Growth13weekmovingavg.,y-on-y% 35.8 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2011-Jan. Feb. Mar. Mar Apr. May. Jun. July. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. 2012-Jan. Feb. Mar. Mar Apr. May. Jun. July. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. 2013-Jan. Feb. Mar. Mar April May
  • 21 EmploymentEmploymentsinceend-2007 (MnPeople,s.a.) Source:TURKSTAT 25.6 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 2008-1 2009-1 2010-1 2011-1 2012-1 2013-1
  • Banking SectorCapitalAdequacyRatio,% Target Rate 12% Legal Rate 8% Source: BRSA 22 Capital adequacy ratio twice the minimum legal limit of 8%. 17.26 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2003-1 5 9 2004-1 5 9 2005-1 5 9 2006-1 5 9 2007-1 5 9 2008-1 5 9 2009-1 5 9 2010-1 5 9 2011-1 5 9 2012-1 5 9 2013-1
  • Household Leverage Source: CBRT, ECB (HouseholdLiabilities,%ofGDP,2012) 23 65.5 21.2 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Denmark Netherlands Ireland United Kingdom Portugal Sweden Spain Euro area Finland Greece Malta Germany France Belgium Luxembourg Austria Italy Estonia Poland Latvia Czech Republic Hungary Slovenia Slovakia Lithuania Turkey
  • Corporate Liabilities 24 36.8 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Luxembourg Spain Portugal Netherlands Ireland Denmark Italy Slovenia Austria Sweden Greece France Latvia Estonia Turkey Germany Finland Belgium United Kingdom Hungary Lithuania Slovakia Czech Republic Poland (Corporateliabilities,%,GDP) Source: CBRT, Cetinkaya, March 2013, BRSA
  • Other Factors Supporting Growth Urban Renewal 2B Removal of Reciprocity Incentives IG Credit Ratings Reconciliation Process 25
  • Declining Inflation Source: TURKSTAT, Medium-Term Program 26 (CPIInflation,y/y,%) 107.2 125.5 99.1 6.2 5.3 5.0 5.0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Forecast
  • 10.8 7.9 4.1 0.1 -1.3 0.2 1.6 5.5 3.0 0.4 1.3 1.5 1.2 0.9 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Maastricht Criteria: 3% Medium-Term Program (2013-15) Achieved Maastricht Criteria except 2009 Source: Ministry of Development BudgetDeficit-to-GDP,% 27 Strong Fiscal Position
  • 74.0 67.7 59.6 52.7 46.5 39.9 40.0 46.1 42.3 39.1 36.1 35.0 33.0 31.0 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Medium-Term Program (2013-15) Lower Public Debt Debt-to-GDP,% Satisfying Maastricht Criteria since 2004 Maastricht Criteria: 60% Source: Treasury 28
  • Lower Unemployment 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 2008-1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2009-1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2010-1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2011-1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2012-1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2013-1 2 3 2013* 2014* 2015* (%,UnemploymentRate) * Projection Source:TURKSTAT
  • Slight Rise in CAD (12MonthRolling,USDbn) Source: Central Bank of Turkey 30 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 2002-1 4 7 10 2003-1 4 7 10 2004-1 4 7 10 2005-1 4 7 10 2006-1 4 7 10 2007-1 4 7 10 2008-1 4 7 10 2009-1 4 7 10 2010-1 4 7 10 2011-1 4 7 10 2012-1 4 7 10 2013-1 4 Current Account Current Account without Energy Import Current Account + Net FDI + Net Errors and Omissions
  • C/A Deficit is a Source of Vulnerability
  • 8 34 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2002 2012 But, We have Diversified Export Markets Number of Export Markets over $1 billion Source: TURKSTAT 32
  • Europe 56.6% Other 43.4% 2002 Exports to Europe are on the Fall Europe 38.8% Other 61.2% 2012 Source: TURKSTAT 33
  • Source: TURKSTAT But, Exports to MENA are on the Rise ExportstoMENA(%ofTotal) 34 12.1 31.6 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2002 2012
  • 9 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2002 2012 Number of Products over $1 billion We have Diversified Product Bundle Source: TURKSTAT 35
  • -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Public Savings/GDP Private Savings/GDP (%) Source: Ministry of Development Savings 37
  • Reform Agenda 38
  • Chapter - 1 Moving Up the Value Chain Deepening Capital Markets Combatting the Shadow Economy Improving Infrastructure
  • 40 Moving Up the Value Chain
  • Why is R&D so significant for us? The share of high and medium-high technology sectors in production and in export is low Boosting R&D Source: Ministry of Development 27.6 72.4 35.6 64.4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 High and Medium-High Low and Medium-Low Production Export 41
  • Source: The Scientific and Technological Council of Turkey R&D Spending 42 • 3.00%2023 • 0.86%2011 • 0.53%2002
  • Industrial Design Applications 41,226 applications in 2012 Up by 103% since 2002 Source: TPI 43
  • Trade Mark Applications Source: TPI • 36,578 2002 • 109,767 2012 44
  • Patent Applications Source: TPI 45 1,874 11,555 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 2002 2012
  • 46 Deepening Capital Markets
  • A New Capital Markets Law •Increasing financial deepening & innovation •Strengthening investor rights •Improving corporate governance New legal framework in line with the best global practices 47
  • Restructuring of Borsa Istanbul Regional Leadership Raising Market Cap/GDP to 80% 1,000 new companies to be listed 48
  • ISTANBUL AS A FINANCIAL CENTER 49
  • Strengthening the legal framework Improving physical infrastructure Simplifying tax system Providing financial education The Project 50 Main Objective: Deepening Financial Markets
  • Strengthening the Legal Framework Enhancing regulatory and supervisory framework Adopting the best global practices & the EU acquis Building institutions 51 No need to re-invent the wheel
  • Improving physical infrastructure Istanbul is a 24-7 living city • An exciting place to live & work • Largest city in Europe • History of 8000 years • Work in progress to tackle the traffic Purpose-built financial center • 2.5 million m2 area in Atasehir 52
  • Simplifying tax system Building a Simple and Effective Tax system • Boosting competitiveness • Widening tax base • Increasing tax predictability • Reducing tax rates on financial transactions & intermediation • Unifying tax burden on similar financial transactions 53
  • Istanbul as a Financial Center Financial sector currently employs 200 thousand people Istanbul Finance Center is likely to add 150 thousand 54
  • Increasing Savings: Private Pensions 25% State Contribution Penalty for Early Withdrawals 55
  • Incentives for Global Fund Managers A tax free environment for Global Funds Making it easier to manage assets in Turkey 56
  • Incentives for Venture Capital Allowing contributions to Venture Capital to be deducted from Corporate & Personal Income Tax Base, up to • 10% of VC Revenues • 20% of VC Capital Tax Relief on Dividends 57
  • Incentives for Business Angels 58
  • Developing Sukuk Market Similar to euro bonds, international holders Sukuk will not be subject to withholding tax Sep-12: First Sukuk issued for $1.5bn in international market Oct-12: Sukuk denominated in TL issued for TL1.6bn in domestic market Feb-13: Sukuk issued for TL1.5bn 59
  • Combatting the Shadow Economy 60
  • Informal Employment 61 52.1 51.7 50.1 48.2 47.0 45.4 43.5 43.8 43.3 42.1 39.0 36.8 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013March Source:TURKSTAT (%,TotalEmployment)
  • Size of Shadow Economy (%, GDP) 32.2 31.5 30.7 30.4 29.1 28.4 28.9 28.3 27.7 27.2 26.5 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Schneider, 2013 62 Down 6 percentage points
  • Size of Shadow Economy (%, GDP) 31.2 28.4 28.4 28.0 27.6 26.5 25.5 25.2 24.3 23.8 23.6 23.1 22.1 21.1 19 18.6 18.5 16.4 15.5 15 13.9 13.6 13 13 13 12.2 9.9 9.7 9.1 8 7.6 7.1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Bulgaria Romania Crotia Lithuania Estonia TURKEY Latvia S.Cyprus Malta Poland Greece Slovenia Hungary Italy Portugal Spain Average Belgium CzechRep. SlovakRep. Sweeden Norway Denmark Finland Germany Ireland France UK Netherland Luxemburg Austria Switzerland Source: Schneider, 2013 63 But still higher than EU average
  • Tax Loss (% GDP) 7.8 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.1 6.8 6.3 5.7 5.3 5.3 5.7 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.8 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Turkey Sample Average 3ppt higher than the EU average Source: Schneider, 2012 64
  • 65 Improving Infrastructure
  • 1,714 Km Total of Motorways 4,387 Km Total of State and Provincial Dual Carriageways Total: 6,101 Km Dual Carriageway Network (January 1, 2003) 2,244 Km Total of Motorways 20,017Km Total of State and Provincial Dual Carriageways Total: 22,261 Km Dual Carriageway Network (May 11, 2013) 66
  • İSTANBUL ESKİŞEHİR POLATLI ANKARA KONYA SİVAS 212 km 533 km 405 km YOZGAT Yerköy AFYON İZMİR MANİSA 624 km BURSA BİLECİK 105 km Under Construction Completed High Speed Railway Projects 67Source: Ministry of Transport
  • • The number of airports serving scheduled flights = 262003 • The number of airports serving scheduled flights = 492012 Airports Available For Civil Aviation Traffic in Turkey Airports serving Scheduled Flights (49) Airports under Construction (6) Airports Planned (1) 68
  • Chapter - 2 Enhancing Human Capital Stock Improving Labor Market Flexibility Reducing Energy Import Bill Reconciliation Process
  • 70 Enhancing Human Capital Stock
  • Students (%, Total Population) 71 39 22 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Turkey EU Source: TURKSTAT, Eurostat
  • 21 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Germany France UnitedKingdom Italy Spain Poland Romania Turkey Netherlands Greece Belgium Portugal CzechRepublic Hungary Sweden Austria Switzerland Bulgaria Denmark Slovakia Finland Norway Ireland Croatia Lithuania Macedonia Slovenia Latvia Estonia Cyprus Montenegro Luxembourg Malta Iceland Liechtenstein Turkey’s Student Population 72Source: Ministry of Development, Eurostat Population,million
  • 9.4 17 8 10 12 14 16 18 2002 2013 Source: Ministry of Finance Share of Education Budget% 73
  • Investment in Education Over the last decade, we have • Built 188,000 classrooms • Hired 357,000 teachers 74 Source: Ministry of Education
  • Gross Schooling Rates Source: Ministry of Development 11.2 96.5 80.8 35.8 46.4 108.4 92.6 81.6 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 Preschool (age of 4-5 ) Primary School Secondary School Higher Education 2002-2003 2011-2012 75
  • Source: OECD, PISA 2009 PISA Results - Mathematics 43rd (among 65 countries) 76 445 350 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 550
  • Improving Quality of Education With Fatih Project, we are providing our children with Broadband Internet Access Smart Boards Tablet PCs Other Information Technology Tools 78
  • Source: OECD Fatih to help FURTHER reduce the gap between Turkey & OECD (PISA Results) 79 30 40 50 60 70 80 science math 2006 2009
  • Improving Labor Market Flexibility 80
  • Low Employment Rate Early retirement Low rate of female labor force participation Rigidities in labor force market 81
  • Average Retirement Age 41.0 44.9 61.9 63.3 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Female Male Turkey OECD Source: OECD 82
  • Labor Participation Rate, Female OECD Average: 62.3 Source: TURKSTAT, OECD 83 LaborParticipationRatebyEducation (2013March) 30.2 16.7 25.5 32.3 40.8 72.9 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Total Illeterate Less than high school High school Vocational high school Higher education
  • Improving Girls’ Education 2002 91.1 girls per 100 boys 2012 101.8 girls per 100 boys 84
  • Source: OECD Highest among OECD countries 85 Average Usual Weekly Hours Worked on the Main Job 48.9 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 Turkey Korea Mexico Greece Czech… Israel Slovak… Poland Iceland Slovenia Hungary Portugal Chile Canada Estonia Spain France Austria Italy NewZealand Finland Luxembourg Belgium Sweden United… Australia Germany Switzerland Ireland Norway Denmark Netherlands Highest among OECD countries
  • 86 Reducing Energy Import Bill
  • Source: TURKSTAT, Bloomberg Energy Import Bill (Brent,$pbl) EnergyImports(BillionDollars) 87 9.2 60.1 58.7 23.4 110.5 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Q1 Energy Import Oil Prices
  • High Dependence on Energy Imports 72% Total Energy 92% Oil 98% Natural-Gas 88
  • Developing Local & Renewable Resources Source: Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources Electricity Generation Installed Capacity MW % of Total Current Installed Capacity (Sept, 2012) 55,663 - Renewable Energy 20,963 37.7 Power Plants Under Construction 23,396 - Renewable Energy 15,879 67.9 TOTAL 79,029 - Renewable Energy 36,843 46.6 89
  • Building the Nuclear Capacity 90 Akkuyu: JW with Russia Sinop JW with a Japanese-French consortium Working on a 3rd plant
  • Improving Energy Efficiency 91 Industry 20% Transportation 15% Construction 30%
  • Privatization • Distributions: Almost done 92 Hamitabat Termal Power Plant Seyitömer Termal Power Plant Kangal Termal Power Plant • Generation: 16,530MW on sale
  • Coal 93 $12 Billion Investment 85 million tons of coal per year 45 billion kWh of energy per year Employment for 15 thousand people Turkey-UAE
  • 94 Reconciliation Process
  • Lost Decades 95 About 40,000 deaths About $350 billion spent on fighting terrorism Indirect cost is more than $1 trillion
  • Lost Decades OECD ülkeleri arasında en yüksek 96 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Korea Turkey 80s: at par w/ Korea 90s: Lost Decade AK Party: Rapid Growth GDP,million$ Source: IMF
  • Instead of Money Spent on Fighting Terrorism, we could have… 400,000 km dual carriageway 10,000 km high-speed rail line 2,500,000 classrooms 97
  • Turkey’s Strong Long-Term Prospects 98
  • GDP Source: TURKSTAT, Medium-Term Program,PwC 2002 2050 2002 $ 230 billion 2050 $ 5 trillion 2012 $ 786 billion 2023 $ 2 trillion 99
  • GDP per Capita Source: TURKSTAT, Medium-Term Program,PwC 2002 2050 2002 $ 3,492 2012 $10,504 2023 $ 25,000 2050 $ 50,000 100
  • Determinants of Long-Term Growth Quality of Institutions Demographics Productivity 101
  • Improving Quality of Institutions 102 Doing Business Corruption Perception Index Global Competitiveness Index Human Development Index OECD-FDI Regulatory Restrictiveness Index Past Present 2023 Source: WB, WEF, Transparency International, OECD
  • Favorable Demographics Source: Eurostat Shareof15-24yearsoldinTotalPop.(%) 16.8 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 Andorra Italy Greece Spain Portugal Germany Slovenia Ireland Bulgaria Luxembourg Switzerland Croatia Czech Republic Austria Liechtenstein Serbia Hungary Netherlands Finland France Denmark United Kingdom Norway Sweden Estonia Ukraine Malta Poland Latvia Slovakia Montenegro Lithuania Iceland Macedonia Georgia Turkey Moldova Azerbaijan 103
  • 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 Turkey USA EU-27 OECD AnnualAveragePopulationGrowthRate (%,2001-11)Growth Rate of Working-Age Population Source: OECD, Eurostat, TURKSTAT 104
  • Have Investors Noticed the Transformation? 105
  • International Companies Operating in Turkey (1000s) Source: Ministry of Economy 106 5.6 6.7 8.8 11.7 15.0 16.1 19.2 21.9 25.2 29.9 33.4 33.8 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Apr
  • Foreign Direct Investment Inflows Source: CBRT (Billiondollar) 14.8 122.8 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1980-2002 2003-2012 107
  • REER Appreciation Source: CBRT (2003=100) 108 55 65 75 85 95 105 115 125 135 1989-1 7 1990-1 7 1991-1 7 1992-1 7 1993-1 7 1994-1 7 1995-1 7 1996-1 7 1997-1 7 1998-1 7 1999-1 7 2000-1 7 2001-1 7 2002-1 7 2003-1 7 2004-1 7 2005-1 7 2006-1 7 2007-1 7 2008-1 7 2009-1 7 2010-1 7 2011-1 7 2012-1 7 2013-1 Linear Trend
  • THANK YOU… 109