PAX 2009-The Future of Games

The Future of Gaming
You Don’t Know What You’re Going to Get

Who Am I?
Andrew Mayer
17 Years in the industry:
Original Producer/Designer on Petz
Senior Designer at Psygnosis San Francisco
Creative Director at Cartoon Network Online
Casual Games developer at Playfirst
Social Games Consultant

The State of the Game

Some Assumptions (for the sake of argument)
Piracy sucks
DRM sucks
Piracy and DRM

For better and worse Piracy and DRM have killed the PC gaming market as we once knew (and loved) it.
No DRM means you need to find ways to make $$$ when people are paying nothing to play.
This drives new models.
Piracy and DRM

Many of the innovations that are going to drive “the next generation” are already here.
It’s no longer about processors and video cards.
Free games need a much bigger audience.
Grow your users or die!
The Future is Now
New Rules not New Hardware

State of the Game
But the lines are still blurry.
And it’s even harder to see when it’s not technology driven.
But it’s getting clearer every day.
The Future is Now
The Pieces are in Place

Where we Play
Hardcore games are going niche.
Already seeing a contraction in the market.
Fewer players grabbing a bigger share.
More cool “indie titles”.
Virtual goods and pay to play are taking off.
And that’s bleeding into the design.
The Old Games Industry
What’s Happening to the Hardcore?

There’s still $60 hardcore games being made, but there isn’t as much growth.
Even the old is new.
Stuff like Nazi Zombies & Fallout downloads
The big boys want a slice of the tasty new piewith that delicious mainstream audience.
Things are changing

The foundation of the next hardcore generation
Turns out WOW really did change everything.
People are willing to pay (and pay) for these experiences.
Just add Co-Op & Multiplayer

Twitter, Facebook, Myspace, Kongregate etc.
Smaller games are making big $$$
Virtual goods alone will be $1.8 Billion this year.
Small companies are making real money.
You may not love the games, but developers are lovable again.
The New Games Industry
Small is the new BIG

State of the Game
Hardcore games go niche.
Already seeing a contraction in the market.
Fewer publishers grabbing a bigger share.
More cool “indie titles”.
More event titles.
Virtual goods, co-op and pay-to-play take off.
The New Games Industry
So what happens to the Hardcore?

Where We Play

Where we Play
The PC
The Entertainment Box
Portable Devices
The Basics
Where Do We Play Video Games?

Where we Play
Notebooks and Netbooks are now appliances.
Huge monitors cost less every day.
Even low end machines have pretty decent 3D graphics.
Developers are much better at hiding scaling issues in the software.
The PC
Computers are Cheaper Than Ever

Where we Play
Machines that just work. (Even windows).
The technology curve is slowing down so things are more stable and/or better built.
Users no longer have a big wish list of innovations.
The PC
User Friendlier

Where we Play
The PC is still the home of the most popular games in the world.
Still proving ground for new ideas.
Still the home of the truly hardcore.
The PC
Everything DOMED is New Again

Where we Play
Dedicated
Closed (mostly)
Most people don’t pirate.
Allows you to make deals with big licensors across all mediums. (Games, TV, Music, etc.)
In the living room.
Led by Guitar Hero/Rock Band
The Console

Price Matters
Where we Play
The Lesson of Nintendo

Where we Play
Price Matters
The Lesson of Sony

Where we Play
Whether your opponent is busy making a killing or killing themselvesALWAYS PAY ATTENTION.
The 360 is a fundamentally different platform from the one it started out as, and it ain’t over yet.
Portables
The Lesson of the 360

Where we Play
The console isn’t just for games anymore.
Now users want:
Games
Downloadable content
Movies on Demand
Twitter, Facebook, and more.
The New Rules

Where we Play
iPhone
DS
Many more in the years to come.
Portables
Cheap and Easy

Where we Play
Followers, not leaders.
Sort of like consoles.
But easier to pirate.
Sort of like PCs
But not really open or as innovative.
It’s also hard to make money if you’re not Nintendo or Apple.
Portables
Handhelds are Hybrids

Where we Play
Works on everything from your phone to your tower.
Games don’t become obsolete.
You can still easily play 10 year old flash games.
Getting more sophisticated.
Flash becoming mature
Cloud computing is interesting, if not quite there yet.
The Browser
Everything Everywhere—All The Time

The World of Free

The World of Free
Free games need hundreds of thousands of people, maybe millions coming every day.
There is always some limit on the amount you can consume.
The player is the primary method of advertising.
Why Free?
The Best Way to Build a Social Audience

The World of Free
Your info has value.
Online games are one big endless focus test.
They’re desperate to try and make the games more addictive.
Metrics
“They” want to know

The World of Free
Advertising
Offers
Subscriptions
Making Money
How do you make money on Free?

The World of Free
This works, but only if you have really big numbers and a really big audience.
But everyone does it, if they can get away with it.
At worst it’s something you’ll pay to get rid of.
Three ways to make $$$
Advertising

The World of Free
Sign up/subscribe to something and get in-game currency.
People pay the developer for bringing you their way.
Works better than advertising alone, because the advertiser gets something real.
Offers

The World of Free
This is the big one.
Virtual Goods

The World of Free
Items or cash that can be bought for real $$$.
Limited quantities.
Sometimes
Better than the free stuff.
Or at least easier to get.
Virtual Goods
What are they?

The World of Free
Anyone here ever buy a Magic card?
D&D 4th edition is the same model.
Free to play with your friends.
Low initial investments.
Then you start emptying your wallet to get more. OM NOM NOMNOM!
Virtual Goods
Will they work?

The World of Free
Over $1B in virtual goods will be sold in the US this year.
Games are easier to upgrade.
Balance become less important.
Virtual Goods
All Your Money $1.00 at a Time

The World of Free
Designs have to make you an offer you cant refuse.
Balance become less important.
Games are more responsive to the player’s needs.
Virtual Goods
How do this change the game?

New Ways to Play

New Ways to Play
I call this the “Farmpocalypse”
Tremble before it.
The Future is Farming
In the Future There Will Be Only Farming Games

New Ways to Play
Everybody else is making content for ME
I’m making content for everybody else.
Getting Social
What makes a game “social”?

New Ways to Play
Repetitive and simple.
Played on an existing platform.
A lot of people might not even call them games.
Like it or not, it’s going to show up in a lot.
Getting Social
Gameplay Goes Beyond Casual

New Ways to Play
Not a lot of pain
You don’t “fail”, you just win slower.
Your friends are valuable resources that you need to collect and exploit.
Getting Social
No pain, slow gain.

New Ways to Play
You can grind, but you can’t catass.
Important actions are limited by energy points.
Replenished over time—or with money.
Prizes for showing up every day.
Getting Social
The Bite-Sized Grind

New Ways to Play
You can grind, but you can’t catass.
Important actions are limited by energy points.
Replenished over time—or with money.
Do the basic action (missions, farming, etc.) over an over again.
Getting Social
The Bite-Sized Grind

New Ways to Play
Daily prizes for showing up.
In farming especially, you’re given a window of opportunity to “reap” rewards.
Getting Social
Checking In

New Ways to Play
You can buy stuff that has no in-game effect.
Hats for your avatar!
Pets are especially popular for this.
But there’s always a reason to dress up your farm, buy more guns, or whatever.
Makes it easier to sell cool stuff for real $.
Getting Social
Collecting is Good

New Ways to Play
It’s more about status and showing off than it is about personal achievement.
In the world of social everyone is an achievement whore.
But unclear goals aren’t so great for hardcore gamers.
Getting Social
Winning is Relative

New Ways to Play
Social games will get more complex.
But only as much as the metrics allow.
Popular titles get more MMO like.
Check out Mafia Wars to see this in action.
Action Gameplay will show up.
But probably be more similar to old-style arcade gaming.
Games of the Near Future
Social: The Next Generation

Are We Having Fun Yet?

The hardcore audience is pretty-much maxed out.
Retail prices are pretty-much maxed.
Box sales are down.
Dealing with Change
The Current Problems with Hardcore

New Ways to Play
Most devs love the new models.
Or at least they love the iPhone
You can invest less in the beginning
The games are smaller
Build the title as you go along.
More money goes directly to the devs.
Dealing with Change
What do the Developers think?

Still learning the ropes
Some are sad, because the old “tricks” aren’t working the way they used to.
But you can try a lot of new things.
We’re only at the beginning.
Dealing with Change
What do the Designers think?

New Ways to Play
The old guard may be bummed.
But there’s Lots of new Players are showing up.
Millions of them.
They will get more sophisticated, but they will be a new breed of gamer.
The hardcore gamer is going to get some benefits, but won’t be the same world it was before.
Dealing with Change
What does the Audience think?

Questions
Contact:
andrew@mediashifters.com
Twitter: @mediashifters
@andrewmayer
www.mediashifters.com

PAX 2009-The Future of Games

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