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Google - measuring search's impact

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Marketing Effectiveness in the Data Age

Marketing Effectiveness in the Data Age

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  • 1. Measuring Search’s ImpactMark RiseleyResearch Manager, Google EMEAPresented on 3rd November 2011 at“What works now - Marketing Effectiveness in the Data Age” Google Confidential and Proprietary 1
  • 2. ? Google Confidential and Proprietary
  • 3. Google Confidential and Proprietary
  • 4. ? Google Confidential and Proprietary
  • 5. Harry Potter Google Confidential and Proprietary
  • 6. ? Google Confidential and Proprietary
  • 7. Google Confidential and Proprietary
  • 8. A search is an expression of interest Google Confidential and Proprietary
  • 9. Search works as a pull medium PUSH Online Radio Print TV display Search PULL Google Confidential and Proprietary9
  • 10. And offline media drive people to search Google Confidential and Proprietary 10
  • 11. Researching Search is Hard Google Confidential and Proprietary 11
  • 12. How to measure the value of search Surveys Tracking Experiments Modelling Consumer insights Consumer insights + Prove incremental Influence of search Attribution of sales impact of search ads and other drivers on traffic / sales Google Confidential and Proprietary
  • 13. How to measure the value of search Surveys Tracking Experiments Modelling Consumer insights Consumer insights + Prove incremental Influence of search Attribution of sales impact of search ads and other drivers on traffic / sales Shopper surveys Clickstream analysis Pre-post tests Econometrics Unique phone numbers Regional split tests Coupons Panel split tests Check & reserve analytics Cookie split tests Cross media optimization studies Google Confidential and Proprietary
  • 14. POS Recruited Shopper Survey Approach Objectives 1 Quantify the role of the internet in buying television equipment in store 2 Identify the differences between those that do and don’t use the web in the purchase process 3 Understand purchase process of online researcher Methodology1 357 offline TV purchasers @ Fnac recruited via contest entry at point of purchase (in store)2 Follow up telephone interview then conducted 10 days after purchase Google Confidential and Proprietary Source: FNAC Spain / Google 2010
  • 15. Quantifying online to store activity 52% WWW 52% of those buying a TV offline in-store at Fnac had previously used the internet for research Google Confidential and Proprietary 15 Source: FNAC Spain / Google 2010
  • 16. Store Basket size higher for online researchersAmountSpent €701 €526 + 33% DID NOT Those researching online RESEARCHED ONLINE RESEARCH ONLINE spend on average 33% more than those that do not Google Confidential and Proprietary Source: FNAC Spain / Google 2010 16
  • 17. Unique phone number tracking methodology Google AdWords: Product page of ABN Amro ABN Amro Contact Centre Search for car insurance Display of special hotline Closing of contract or request product, e.g. telephone number for users for final contract documents “Autoverzekering” arriving via AdWords ABN Amro: Online closing of contract Google Confidential and Proprietary 17
  • 18. Example Results: ABN Amro Netherlands Indexed Figures Car Insurance Contracts through AdWords Credit Card Contracts through AdWords400% 400%350% 350%300% 300%250% 250% 254%200% 200% 354%150% 150% 14%100% 100% 50% 100% 114%50% 100% 0% 0% Online Contact Centre Online + Contact Online Contact Centre Online + Contact Centre Centre Source: ABN Amro 2010 Google Confidential and Proprietary 18
  • 19. Research Challenge: Finding Matched Test & Control Groups Total audience Test Control Google Confidential and Proprietary 19
  • 20. Geo-targeted experiment methodologySource: Vodafone, APT, Google (2010) Google Confidential and Proprietary 20
  • 21. Example results: Vodafone UKSource: Vodafone, APT, Google (2010) Google Confidential and Proprietary 21
  • 22. Laptop Sales (Unit) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 20-May-07 20-Jun-07 20-Jul-07 20-Aug-07 20-Sep-07Source: Marketshare / PC City (Spain) 20-Oct-07 20-Nov-07 20-Dec-07 20-Jan-08 20-Feb-08 20-Mar-08 20-Apr-08 20-May-08 20-Jun-08 20-Jul-08 20-Aug-08 20-Sep-08 20-Oct-08 20-Nov-08 Econometric modelling methodology 20-Dec-08 20-Jan-09 20-Feb-09 20-Mar-09 20-Apr-09 20-May-09 20-Jun-09 20-Jul-09 20-Aug-09 20-Sep-09 20-Oct-09 20-Nov-09 20-Dec-09 Actual 20-Jan-10 Modeled Google Confidential and Proprietary 20-Feb-10 22
  • 23. Search query data can tease out external effects: category seasonality Google Confidential and Proprietary
  • 24. Search query data can tease out external effects: product launches Google Confidential and Proprietary
  • 25. Search query data can tease out external effects: competition Google Confidential and Proprietary
  • 26. Mapping sales drivers Business Online world Offline world Outcome + Driver Online Traditional - Driver Search Media Width of line Store Refurbishment indicates size of driver SEM Holiday Online (Paid Search) Email Display Short term Web traffic Offline Sales Promo days Online Sales Competitive Sporting Media Rainf Events Price, Base Sales all & Seasonality 26Source: Marketshare / PC City (Spain) Google Confidential and Proprietary 26
  • 27. Econometrics helps optimize media mix Historical 4,800 spend Historical 4,800 spend Weekly Sales (Units) Weekly Sales (Units) 4,700 4,700 Optimal 4,600 spend 4,500 4,600 Optimal 4,400 spend 4,300 Increase spend in 4,500 Increase spend in 4,200 Paid search catalogues 4,100 4,400 - 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 Weekly Media Spend € Weekly Media Spend € 4,800 4,800 Historical Historical spend Weekly Sales (Units) 4,700 spend Weekly Sales (Units) 4,700 4,600 4,600 Optimal 4,500 spend Optimal 4,500 4,400 spend 4,300 Decrease spend in Increase spend in 4,400 4,200 Press TV 4,100 4,300 - 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 Weekly Media Spend € Weekly Media Spend € 27Source: Marketshare / PC City (Spain) Google Confidential and Proprietary
  • 28. Search query trends can have predictive power Google Confidential and Proprietary 28
  • 29. Bank of England nowcasting with search data Google Confidential and Proprietary 29
  • 30. You can do this yourself... Google Confidential and Proprietary 30
  • 31. You can do this yourself... Google Confidential and Proprietary 31
  • 32. Conclusions• Researching search is hard because it’s a pull medium, so established methods don’t always apply• Tracking and surveys can generate useful consumer insights around search and the online to offline effect• Experiments and econometrics can be used to establish the lift and true ROI of search activity• Search query trends can be used to represent external factors such as seasonality, competition and product launches in models, and has predictive power Google Confidential and Proprietary 32
  • 33. Questions?mriseley@google.com Google Confidential and Proprietary 33

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