LED Lighting Market Strategies Under New U.S. Energy Policies<br />Mark McClear<br />mark_mcclear@cree.com<br />June 11, 2...
Disclosure:  Forward-Looking Statements<br />This presentation includes forward-looking statements about Cree’s business o...
Outline<br />Introduction<br />U.S. Energy policies/organizations<br />EISA 2007<br />U.S. Department of Energy Programs<b...
Lighting Used To Be A Lot Easier…<br />Used a lot of energy, but…<br />Color was perfect, never changed<br />CRI was perfe...
Then Things Began To Get Complicated…<br />Saved some energy, but…<br />First CFLs (1990’s) had poor color…<br />…buzzed<b...
LEDs to the Rescue?<br />Poor Application<br />Poor Implementation<br />Poor Optical Control<br />Poor Thermal Design<br /...
LED Marketing…<br />150 lm<br />240 lm<br />Cree does not even make MR16 lamps!!!<br />Cree MR16 volume in 2009:<br />0<br />
More LED Marketing…<br />Description <br />This is one of our brightest MR16 LED available today. It is 1x MR16 bulb with ...
Easy Installation Using Existing Socket
LED Operating Life:  50,000+ hrs (5.7+ years)
Solid-State, Fast Turn On, No Power Surge
High Shock / Vibration Resistant
Major Power Savings
Reduces Light Pollution
Voltages Available 12/14V, 24/28V, 120VAC, 240VAC
Major Reduction in Heat Generation
Wide choice of colors & infrared
Moisture resistant </li></ul>LEDs Cure Wrinkles!!<br />LM-80 is undefined for 5mm LED lamps!!<br />
The Consumer is Confused…<br />“…I know this one saves energy, but…<br />Will I like the color?<br />Will my face, food, f...
Au n-con<br />n-GaN<br />InGaN MQW<br />p-GaN<br />Bond metal<br />Mirror<br />Si<br />Au-Sn p-con<br />…And the Consumer ...
The U.S. Government is Here to Help:  EISA 2007<br />Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007<br />Eliminates the manu...
U.S. Department of Energy Programs<br />
Original U.S. EPA Energy Star Program<br />Household appliances<br />Computer systems, servers<br />Exclusively focused on...
Energy Star for Integral Lamps<br />Minimum efficacy:  50/55 LPW (<10W/≥10W)<br />Minimum lumens:  Varies by thermallystab...
NGOs Helping Also…<br />Education<br />Product screening/recommendation<br />Market development<br />
Government & Power Company Rebates<br />Utilities, Power Agencies and State Wide Programs<br />Rebates can range from $15 ...
Impact of Energy Programs on LED Business – #1<br />Drive Performance and Cost Roadmaps<br />US Department of Energy 2010 ...
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Energy Policy &amp; LED -- GZ LED Forum Jun 2010

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Presentation and panel discussion from 2010 LED Forum, Guangzhou, China, June 2010

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  • One virtually eliminates the manufacture of today’s &gt;150W to &lt;500W probe-start metal halide magnetic ballasted fixtures starting in 2009 (replacement ballasts are not affected). Another virtually eliminates the manufacture of most common general-service incandescent lamps, putting billions of sockets up for grabs. The Act also has its eye on a possible LED general-service lamp in the future, establishing incentives to develop an LED product that can take on the 60W incandescent. http://www.aboutlightingcontrols.org/education/papers/2008_energy_law.shtml#summary
  • Energy Policy &amp; LED -- GZ LED Forum Jun 2010

    1. 1. LED Lighting Market Strategies Under New U.S. Energy Policies<br />Mark McClear<br />mark_mcclear@cree.com<br />June 11, 2010<br />
    2. 2. Disclosure: Forward-Looking Statements<br />This presentation includes forward-looking statements about Cree’s business outlook, future financial results, product markets, plans and objectives for future operations, and product development programs and goals. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, both known and unknown, that may cause actual results to differ materially, as discussed in our most recent annual and quarterly reports filed with the SEC. <br /> <br /> Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include current uncertainty in global market conditions that could negatively affect product demand, collectability of receivables and other related matters; our ability to successfully develop new products; our ability to lower costs; increasing price competition; the complexity of our manufacturing processes and the risk of production delays and higher than expected costs; risks associated with the ramp-up of production for new and existing products; the rapid pace of technology development that could affect demand; and the difficulty of estimating future market demand for our products. <br /> The forward-looking statements in this presentation were based on management’s analysis of information available at the time the presentation was prepared and on assumptions deemed reasonable by management. Our industry and business are constantly evolving, and Cree assumes no duty to update such forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent developments.<br />
    3. 3. Outline<br />Introduction<br />U.S. Energy policies/organizations<br />EISA 2007<br />U.S. Department of Energy Programs<br />U.S. EPA Energy Star<br />NGO Programs<br />Government & NGO Rebates<br />Impact & Strategies<br />Summary<br />
    4. 4. Lighting Used To Be A Lot Easier…<br />Used a lot of energy, but…<br />Color was perfect, never changed<br />CRI was perfect, nobody ever questioned it<br />Price was very low<br />When it burned out, you threw it away…<br />
    5. 5. Then Things Began To Get Complicated…<br />Saved some energy, but…<br />First CFLs (1990’s) had poor color…<br />…buzzed<br />…flickered<br />…did not start instantly<br />…would not dim<br />Cost >10x standard<br />Contained >5mg of mercury <br />
    6. 6. LEDs to the Rescue?<br />Poor Application<br />Poor Implementation<br />Poor Optical Control<br />Poor Thermal Design<br />What WhereThey Thinking…?<br />Poor Quality LEDs<br />
    7. 7. LED Marketing…<br />150 lm<br />240 lm<br />Cree does not even make MR16 lamps!!!<br />Cree MR16 volume in 2009:<br />0<br />
    8. 8. More LED Marketing…<br />Description <br />This is one of our brightest MR16 LED available today. It is 1x MR16 bulb with 3 x 1 watt CREE LED that can fit your 12 volt halogen fixture. LED bulbs are compatible with all types of magnetic transformers but not all electronic transformers. Many electronic transformers require a minimum load which is greater than that provided by LED bulbs. LED bulbs will usually not work properly (no light output, flickering, and strobing) in fixtures that have integral electronic transformers in each fixture. We recommend changing the power LED power supply which can be purchase in our website. In addition, many standard Track Light power supplies will produce voltages as high as 16 with little or no load (LED bulbs provide little load). You must make sure that the voltage of your existing power supply does not exceed 14 Volts with the LED bulbs installed. This bulb has a frosted lens so it evenly disperses the light, so there are no "hot spots" in the light pattern. Why LED? Last up to 100,000 hours (or about ten years) Withstand shocks, vibrations, frequent switching and temperature extremes that rapidly incapacitate fragile incandescent lamps Reduction of maintenance costs Decrease of electric costs by up to 90% Low heat generation Variety of colors available Wide range of voltage applications Unlike Fluorescents, LED lights are compatible with all dimmers and FET switches like XXX and XXXX Bulb Type: MR16 3 x 1 Watt CREE LED Life time: 20,000 Hours Color: White (6000K) View Angle: 38 Deg Light output: 240 Lumen Operating Voltage: 12 V AC / DC Consumption: 3.4 Watt Product Diameter: 1.96" or 50 mm Product Length: 1.9" or 48 mm<br /><ul><li>Three Year Lamp Warranty
    9. 9. Easy Installation Using Existing Socket
    10. 10. LED Operating Life: 50,000+ hrs (5.7+ years)
    11. 11. Solid-State, Fast Turn On, No Power Surge
    12. 12. High Shock / Vibration Resistant
    13. 13. Major Power Savings
    14. 14. Reduces Light Pollution
    15. 15. Voltages Available 12/14V, 24/28V, 120VAC, 240VAC
    16. 16. Major Reduction in Heat Generation
    17. 17. Wide choice of colors & infrared
    18. 18. Moisture resistant </li></ul>LEDs Cure Wrinkles!!<br />LM-80 is undefined for 5mm LED lamps!!<br />
    19. 19. The Consumer is Confused…<br />“…I know this one saves energy, but…<br />Will I like the color?<br />Will my face, food, fabric look natural?<br />Will it buzz or flicker like the old ones?<br />Is it worth the extra cost?<br />Will it hurt my family? <br />Are LEDs any better?<br />How can I know?”<br />
    20. 20. Au n-con<br />n-GaN<br />InGaN MQW<br />p-GaN<br />Bond metal<br />Mirror<br />Si<br />Au-Sn p-con<br />…And the Consumer is Never Going to Understand the Technology…<br />
    21. 21. The U.S. Government is Here to Help: EISA 2007<br />Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007<br />Eliminates the manufacture of >150W to <500W probe-start metal halide magnetic ballasted fixtures starting in 2009<br />Severely restricts the manufactureor import of most common general-service incandescent lamps beginning 2012 (exemptions apply), and <br />Establishes incentivesto develop an LED product that can replace the 60W incandescent <br />These Power Utilities Will Support L-Prize<br />
    22. 22. U.S. Department of Energy Programs<br />
    23. 23. Original U.S. EPA Energy Star Program<br />Household appliances<br />Computer systems, servers<br />Exclusively focused on energy savings<br />
    24. 24. Energy Star for Integral Lamps<br />Minimum efficacy: 50/55 LPW (<10W/≥10W)<br />Minimum lumens: Varies by thermallystabilized “wattage equivalent” <br />Minimum CRI: 75, R9 > 0<br />Lumen Maintenance (L70): 25,000 hours<br />CCT: 2700 K, 3000 K, 3500 K, or 4000 K<br />Duv tolerances: per ANSI C78.377-2008<br />Power Factor: >0.7 for lamps ≥5W<br />Intensity distribution:<br />Less than 80% of total flux in the 0° to 60° zone and at least 20% of total flux above 90°<br />Dimming NOT required (very desired)<br />Must provide: <br />IES LM-79-2008, sec 10 goniophotometer report<br />IES LM-80-2008 report on LEDs used<br />Restrictions on “product equivalency” marketing claims, must use “Lighting Facts” label<br />Warranty: 3-years<br />Wattage Equivalent<br />Lumens<br />
    25. 25. NGOs Helping Also…<br />Education<br />Product screening/recommendation<br />Market development<br />
    26. 26. Government & Power Company Rebates<br />Utilities, Power Agencies and State Wide Programs<br />Rebates can range from $15 per fixture to $50 per fixture<br />Requirements by the state utility commissions to reduce peak demand and consumption in the residential, commercial and industrial sectors<br />PGE, PECO, First Energy, Efficiency Vermont, Clean Energy NJ, NYSERDA , etc.<br />
    27. 27. Impact of Energy Programs on LED Business – #1<br />Drive Performance and Cost Roadmaps<br />US Department of Energy 2010 Multi-Year Plan for SSL<br />
    28. 28. Cree Performance Roadmap<br />186 LPW<br />208 LPW<br />Theoretical maximum for LED<br />161 LPW<br />R&D Capability<br />131 LPW<br />3 yrs<br />XP-G<br />CW Lumens/watt<br />XP-E<br />HID<br />High Volume Production<br />XR-E<br />Fluorescent<br />XR-E<br />CFL<br />LED<br />Incandescent<br />
    29. 29. XLamp® XM-L LED<br />5.0 mm<br />XM-L<br />5.0 mm<br />XP-G<br />XP-E<br />XLamp XM-L<br />XLamp XP-E<br />Revolutionary flux & efficacy:<br />Up to 160 lm, 160 LPW @ 350 mA<br />Up to 750 lm, 110 LPW @ 2A<br />Typical Targets : 145 lm @350mA ; 675 lm @2A<br />Proven design similar to XP:<br />Lighting-Class, small optical source size<br />~2ºC/W RTH, isolated thermal pad<br />Vf= ~2.9 @ 350mA<br />Timeline:<br />June 2010: Engineering samples, Preliminary Datasheet, Optical Model<br />Late 3Q 2010: Commercial availability<br />XM-L<br />XP-G<br />XP-E<br />
    30. 30. XLamp Cost Trend<br />Standard 6000K Cool White Benchmark<br />XP-E 110 lumens<br />XP-E 120 lumens<br />XP-G 130 lumens<br />XR 7090 59 lumens<br />XR-E 100 lumens<br />XR-E 80 lumens<br />Normalized $/lumen over 4 years<br /><ul><li>>88% reduction in $/lumen (65% LPW improvement)
    31. 31. 100’s of Millions of XLamp power die
    32. 32. Driven by brightness, package and process improvements & volume</li></li></ul><li>Impact of Energy Programs on LED Business – #2<br />Drive Quality<br /><ul><li>Minimum efficacy: 50/55 LPW (<10W/≥10W)
    33. 33. Minimum lumens: Varies by thermallystabilized “wattage equivalent”
    34. 34. Minimum CRI: 75, R9 > 0
    35. 35. Lumen Maintenance (L70): 25,000 hours
    36. 36. CCT: 2700 K, 3000 K, 3500 K, or 4000 K
    37. 37. Duv tolerances: per ANSI C78.377-2008
    38. 38. Power Factor: >0.7 for lamps ≥5W
    39. 39. Intensity distribution:
    40. 40. Less than 80% of total flux in the 0° to 60° zone and at least 20% of total flux above 90°
    41. 41. Dimming NOT required (very desired)
    42. 42. Must provide:
    43. 43. IES LM-79-2008, sec 10 goniophotometer report
    44. 44. IES LM-80-2008 report on LEDs used
    45. 45. Restrictions on “product equivalency” marketing claims, must use “Lighting Facts” label
    46. 46. Warranty: 3-years</li></ul>Wattage Equivalent<br />Lumens<br />
    47. 47. Impact of Energy Programs on LED Business – #3<br />Drive Standards<br />IES-LM-80-08<br />IES-LM-79-08<br />ANSI C78.377-2008<br />
    48. 48. Impact on Binning…<br />ANSI C78.377-2008 3000K Quadrangle<br />2007<br />2006<br />2010<br />2009<br />Prediction<br />
    49. 49. Impact of Energy Programs on LED Business – #4<br />Drive Break-through Product Developments<br /><ul><li>EZBright Chip Platform
    50. 50. EZBright chips used in the XLamp component family
    51. 51. LED Component for LRP-38 Lamp</li></li></ul><li>Education and Purchasing Behavior<br />ENERGY STAR SSL Quality Advocates:<br />ENERGY STAR Partners:<br />Impact of Energy Programs on LED Business – #5<br />
    52. 52. Impact of Energy Programs on LED Business – #6<br />Market Acceleration<br />Global High Brightness LED for General Illumination Market<br />$4.5<br />$4.0<br />2007 Lighting Forecast*<br />2008 Lighting Forecast*<br />$3.5<br />2009 Lighting Forecast*<br />$3.0<br />2010 Lighting Forecast*<br />$USD, Billions<br />$2.5<br />$2.0<br />$1.5<br />$1.0<br />$0.5<br />$0.0<br />2006<br />2007<br />2008<br />2009<br />2010<br />2011<br />2012<br />2013<br />2014<br />* Strategies Unlimited<br />
    53. 53. Summary<br />U.S. Government and non-government energy programs have had a very positive impact on the Solid State Lighting market<br />Specifically, these programs have helped drive:<br />…Performance and cost roadmaps<br />…Awareness and necessity for quality in SSL<br />…Standards creation and implementation<br />…Break-through product developments<br />…Education and shaping of purchase behaviors<br />The result has been measureable market acceleration, and<br />Real Energy<br />avings<br />
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