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Big data market research

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Big data challenges for Market Research. …

Big data challenges for Market Research.
Presented at BIG 2014 (http://big2014.org) part of WWW2014 (http://www2014.kr/).

Published in: Software, Business, Technology

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  • 1. The Big Data Challenges of Computational Market Research Frank Smadja frank.smadja@toluna.com (@FrankieMbaye) EVP Engineering Toluna April 2014
  • 2. Toluna Table of Content 1. What is a Market Research study 2. The main challenge: Targeting. 3. Machine Learning Problem and Model 4. Some Experiments 5. Current and Future Work
  • 3. Toluna What is a Market Research Study?
  • 4. Toluna Market Research Goal: Answering Questions for Brands Customer/Employee Satisfaction: • Are my customers happy? • What can I do better for them? • Am I getting better or worse? Concept testing: • Would dog owners buy my organic dog food? • What should be my target market? Ad testing: • Is my advertising campaign effective? Brand positioning: • How is my brand doing compared to the competition? • What are my perceived strong features? • Where should I invest more? And many more types of questions
  • 5. Toluna Output Example : ‘Positioning survey’ for Hilton Garden Inn.
  • 6. Toluna Output Example : ‘Positioning survey’ for Hilton Garden Inn.
  • 7. Toluna Example : Positioning survey for Beyonce
  • 8. Toluna Example : Positioning survey for Beyonce
  • 9. Toluna Market Research Main Challenge: Targeting Select segment of respondents (sample) that is: • Relevant to the question (dog owners who have one big dog and one small dog, smokers who are trying to stop, etc.) • Representative and balanced (not biased). The tougher/restrictive the targeting, the more expensive the study.
  • 10. Toluna The Targeting Pipeline and Incidence Rate Demographics Behavioral Study Select the right population based on simple demographic attributes: Age, Gender, Region, Ethnicity, Income, etc. Further select based on behavioral and custom attributes: fly more than 5 times a year, uses aspirin on a daily basis, etc. Fixed set of attributes known beforehand Free style attributes, usually unknown. Incidence Rate: IR = Completes / Starts Cost is a growing function of IR Targeting process Start Complete
  • 11. Toluna Why is targeting hard? Looking for 1,000 people in the UK who “smoke,” “tried to stop in the past,” “live around London,” “age 24-50.” Data on UK population: • 18% of the UK adults smoke • 40% of smokers tried to stop • 15% of the population is in the London area • 30% is between 24-50 Incidence rate: 0.18 * 0.4 *.15 * .3 = 0.3 % Sample size: 333,333 UK London Adults Smokers Tried to stop
  • 12. Toluna State of the Art: Use Known Demographic Features • Basic Demographics are known: 100% incidence. o Age and London • Smokers: 18% • Tried to stop: 40% Incidence rate: 1 * 0.18 * 0.4 = 9 % Sample size: 11,000 Adults in the London Area Smokers Tried to stop
  • 13. Toluna New Direction: Use Known Features and Predict Unknown Features • Basic Demographics are known: 100% incidence. o Age and London • If we could predict smokers with 85% accuracy. • Tried to stop still unknown: 40% Incidence rate: 1 * 0.85 * 0.4 = 34 % Sample size: 2,900 Adults in the London Area who are predicted to be smokers Tried to stop Smokers
  • 14. Toluna How to Predict Features? The Space Model Users Features Shirt color Red Blue Smokes? Yes No Sex, Age, Region, etc. User 1 User 2 User 3 User 4 10^^9 users 10^^7 features Sparse Matrix containing all the attributes (integer answers to questions) we have ever asked. Demographic attributes Behavioral attributes
  • 15. Toluna The Learning Task - The Model Try to predict answer to the “Smokes?” attribute based on other attributes. Smokes? Dog owner? Jogger? Overweight?
  • 16. Toluna The Learning Task - Collaborative Filtering User correlation or Feature correlation User correlation: High level features [William Cohen] • If Josie and Bob both have the X feature then if Josie has the Y feature, Bob is more likely to have the Y feature as well. • Dog owners • Political inclination, Taste, Lifestyle Feature correlation: • If Josie has the X feature, Josie is more likely to also have the Y feature. • Joggers (y) and Smokers (n) • Favorite sports and Race/Ethnicity • Income level and Education level
  • 17. Toluna Smaller Task: Complete missing data on a single survey for a single customer. Example: On a specific survey, some respondents skip some questions on income, some other skip the income level question. Use answers provided by other respondents to impute the missing data. Imputation: Complete missing data with substituted values with more or less sophistication. Mean, Nearest neighbor, Multiple Imputation, etc. [Andridge & Little 2011], [Rubin 1987], ... Implementation: IBM, SPSS Missing Values module. Uses an iterative Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and multiple imputation. Used by the US Census bureau. First Experiments with Multiple Imputation
  • 18. Toluna First Experiments with Multiple Imputation Some Results Where it does not work: • Too much missing data (over 10%) • Too many possible answers (what is the name of your children? what is your home city, etc.) • Not enough data overall (less than 1,000) Example of features that work well: Dog owners, Smokers, Income level, Age (3 bands), etc. Accuracy: 85% using blind tests.
  • 19. Toluna Current Work Currently working on the storing component in AWS using Hbase, Elastic search and Hadoop. Some queries: • Find people who Smoke, Have a red shirt and are between 22 and 34. • Compute and store the similarity or correlation between any two pair of users. • Compute and store the similarity between features.
  • 20. Toluna Future Work • Define model: binary features (smokes), Integer (number of children, income), Strings (city, diseases, etc.). • Experiment on a large scale with Collaborative Filtering algorithm and others. • Experiment with user based and feature based filtering (blend?, Slope-One?) • Integrate this into Targeting methodology
  • 21. Toluna Q&A Suggestions? Ideas? Comments? Questions?