Naomi Alboim - Planning for the Future: Immigration and Labour Market Trends

Planning for the Future: Immigration and Labour Market Trends ALLIES Mentoring Conference Calgary May 2011 Naomi Alboim

Overview of presentation
Introduction
Canadian immigration and labour market context
Immigration numbers and trends
Pre-election consultations and proposals:
FQR
FSW
Implications for Immigrant Employment Councils
Recommendations
Conclusion

Introduction
Immigration trends rapidly shifting
Labour markets shifting as well
Significant policy and program implications
Significant implications for employers and service providers

Canada’s labour market context
Labour market forecasting is an art, not a science
Canada does not have a good track record in predicting specific skill shortages or surpluses but:
Two Mega Trends:
Aging population resulting in lower labour force participation rates
Knowledge economy requiring a more educated work force

Aging population
Aging workforce (baby boomers retiring), low fertility rates (below replacement) will create labour shortages
Need better utilization of underemployed, unemployed, underrepresented groups: Eg.
Aboriginal labour force participation rates for 15-24 year olds is 13.6% lower than total Canadian rates
Persons with disabilities aged 15-64 have labour force participation rate 22.4% lower than those without disabilities
But even with them, demand will exceed supply
By 2015, 100% of net labour force growth will depend on immigration

Supply and demand

Knowledge economy
Most new jobs (O, A, B) will require post-secondary education
Estimates range from low of 65% (HRSDC, 2007) to 81% (Ontario Ministry of Education, 2005)
Education/training beyond high school includes
Apprenticeship
College
University
Polytechnic
Industry/professional qualification
Essential skills for most new jobs will include high level communication skills, IT skills, working in teams, critical thinking, intercultural skills (beyond the commonly defined essential skills)

Labour force options and combinations
Increased involvement of Aboriginals
Increased involvement of persons with disabilities
Increased involvement of women
Increased involvement of older workers (ages 55 and older)
Increased involvement of youth (15 to 24 years of age)
Increased immigration and effective utilization of internationally trained skilled workers
Different strategies for each

Rising and declining immigration numbers: Canada and Ontario
Despite increased overall permanent immigration to Canada between 2006-2010, these increases were not reflected in all classes or in all provinces
2006 2010
Family class: 70,517 60,207
Business Class : 12,076 13,301
FSW : 105,944 119,339
CEC : 0 3,916
PNP : 13,336 36,419
LCP : 6,895 13,906
Refugees: 32,499 24,693
Total (plus “other”) 251,642 280,636
Ontario: 125,892 118,116

Permanent residents awaiting a decision December 31, 2010
FSW apps rec’d on or after 02/27/08
173,050
FSW apps rec’d before 02/27/08
334,881
All other PR apps
495,081
Total applicants awaiting a decision
1,003,012

Rise in Temporary Workers
2006 2010
TFW entries 139,004 182,322
TFW present Dec 160,908 283,096
Even during the recession, large numbers of TFW’s were being admitted, although there were some declines in 2009 in Ontario, Manitoba, Alberta, BC and NWT. All were up again in 2010.
BC, Alberta, NFLD, Nova Scotia and the Territories received more temporary foreign workers than permanent residents in 2009
Significant increase in low skilled temporary workers (NOC C+D)

2009 Permanent Residents, Temporary Workers, International Students (entries)
Province 2009 PR 2009 TFW 2009 IS
Newfoundland 603 (.2) 1,395 (.8) * 530 (.6)*
PEI 1,723 (.7) 521 (.3) 322 (.4)
Nova Scotia 2,424 (1.0) 2,795 (1.6) 2,606 (3.1)*
New Brunswick 1,913 (.8) 1,705 (1.0) 1,422 (1.7)*
Quebec 49,493 (19.6) 27,786 (15.6) 14,134 (16.7)
Ontario 106,867 (42.4)* 61,056 (34.2) 30,503 (35.8)
Manitoba 13,520 (5.4) * 3,649 (2.0) 2,064 (2.4)
Saskatchewan 6,890 (2.7) 3,937 (2.2) 1,461 (1.7)
Alberta 27,017 (10.7) 28,610 (16.0) * 5,532 (6.5)
British Columbia 41,438 (16.4) 44,372 (24.9) 26,541 (31.2)*
Territories 291 (.1) 561 (.3) * 23 (.03)
Total 252,179 (100.0) 178,478 (100.0) 85,140 (100.0)

How are immigrants doing?
Recent immigrants hardest hit by the recession, particularly in regions hardest hit by the recession
Still recovering
No special initiatives were put into place for immigrants to reduce scarring

However Certain Factors Make A Difference…
Human capital matters:
Principal applicants in skilled worker class assessed on points system earn significantly more than all other classes
Knowledge of official language and education most important factors
Services matter:
Early interventions, language, social networks, Canadian top-ups
Internships (75-80% of Career bridge participants find full time employment in chosen careers)
Mentoring(80% of mentoring partnership participants find employment within 3 months; 85% in their field)
Bridge training (70% of graduates in Ontario working in their field and licensure exam pass rates have gone from 30 to 80%)
Social capital matters:
Family class members do better in first year after arrival

Possible Interventions
Focus on the immigrant
Levels/mix/source countries
Selection criteria (language, age, education, credentials, occupation)
Focus on programs and services
Know who’s coming and what their needs are
Bridge gap faced by immigrant before and after arrival
Information, qualification assessment, essential skills, language/communication and bridge training, mentorships, work experience programs, loans

.. Possible Interventions
Focus on systems and supports for host society and institutions
Regulatory bodies, employers, schools, universities, community colleges, community agencies
Bridge gap faced by the institutions: awareness/recognition of skills, cross-cultural/anti-racism training, supports, incentives, legislation, funding formulas
Multi-stakeholder collaboration
Inter and intra-governmental collaboration

Federal government responses: levels /mix and selection criteria
Decrease in overall immigration numbers by 5% forecast for 2011 from 2010
Decrease in Federal Skilled Workers (assessed on points system for human capital) by 20% forecast for 2011
Decrease in Family Class: parents and grandparents by about 31% forecast for 2011
Based on evaluation of FSW program, consultations on changes to the points system
Tied economic immigration more closely to short term labour market needs:
Restriction to 29 occupations or those with job offers and proof of language testing for new federal skilled worker applicants
Increased responsiveness to employers for temporary foreign workers
Unilaterally imposed cap on PNP at 2010-11 level

Federal government responses: programs, services, systems
Decreased funding for settlement services, particularly in Ontario and Toronto
Focus on FQR with stakeholders
Focus on overseas interventions
Budget included loan program to meet FQR requirements
Failed to re-negotiate COIA

Pre- election consultations
1. Pan- Canadian FQR Framework: consultations with priority regulated occupations identified need for pan-Canadian initiatives in following areas:
Pre-arrival information, assessment, upgrading, mentoring
Assessment processes
Bridge training opportunities
Communications and soft skills
Workplace opportunities
Individual and employer supports
Alternate pathways

Pre-election consultations
2. Selection criteria for FSW Principal applicants:
Consultations were held on proposed changes to point system based on findings of the FSW evaluation
Point system working well but needs some refinement
Human capital model works better than pre-IRPA model
FSWs do best of all classes in long term (including PNPs)

Language
Increase maximum points for first official language from 16 to 20 points
Require standardized language test for all PA’s
Introduce minimum language requirements depending on occupation:
CLB 8 for NOC O, A, and most B
CLB 6 for NOC B skilled trades
Issues raised in consultation:
How should the second official language be treated for points? Adaptability?
Do you get full points for minimum level required? Or is it a pre-requisite?
Should all Skilled trades require CLB 6? Perhaps some at 7?
Impact on levels and source countries?

Age
Increase weight of age on grid from 10 to 12 points
Award maximum points until age 35, with a sequential leveling off to age 49. No age points after 50
Issues raised in consultation:
Giving full points for 18-35 may not make sense.
Young single male FSW’s are the most mobile and may not be able to access education easily in Canada
Age 35 may be too young for maximum points
Age 36-40 tend to be married with young children (will stay)
Chain migration impacts should be studied

Education
Relax years of education required to earn education points to allow for skilled tradespersons, technicians and apprentices to qualify
Issues raised in consultations:
Education is significant predictor of success so do not reduce requirements across the board.
Consider eliminating need for credential and years of study to be assessed
Have different assessment for trades credentials
Require credentials to be assessed by recognized Canadian ACAS and assign points based on assessment

Work experience
Decrease points allotted to work experience from 21 to 15
Increase the range within which points are allotted (not four years=max pts)
1-2 10 pts
3-5 13 pts
6+ 15 pts

Arranged Employment
Strengthen regulatory provisions and definitions to support more rigorous up-front assessment of the employer and job offer to prevent non-genuine job offers
Issues raised in consultations:
FSW evaluation showed this was best predictor of success, so should be encouraged and facilitated
Employers seeking temporary workers to fill permanent vacancies should be directed to use AEOs
This would be facilitated by developing searchable inventory

Outstanding issues
How can the adaptability points be better used?
If FSW program continues to decline in numbers because of rise in PNP and TFWs, these changes will be moot
If the FSW evaluation demonstrated that occupation based selection criteria pre-IRPA was not as effective, why have the Ministerial instructions restrict access to the FSW to only 29 occupations?

Implications for IECs
The role of IEC’s more important than ever to maximize contributions of skilled workers
Skilled immigrants will continue to enter Canada in many ways, not necessarily as PAs of FSW’s
Even if changes made to FSW criteria, they and others will still need supports pre and post arrival
Lots of interest and possibilities to work with other stakeholders like regulatory bodies and educational institutions
You can bring employers to the table to involve them in new initiatives

Recommendations
Explore opportunities for employer involvement with immigrants still overseas (AEO vs TFW)
Add regulated occupations as focus
Develop employer role for sustainable bridging programs: co-op positions, advisory boards, scholarships, PT instruction, workplace events, job fairs
Explore “return of service” agreements
Explore possibility of practice firms
Explore employer/preceptor incentives and supports to provide workplace opportunities for those not-yet-licensed and first Canadian work experiences
Explore opportunities for on-site training
Explore ways to expand internships to regulated occupations

Recommendations for Mentoring
Expand e-mentoring initiatives for access pre and post arrival (CIIP)
Explore mentoring for regulated occupations with licensing bodies and professional associations
Develop a mentoring program specifically for entrepreneurs
Develop a mentoring program for big companies to mentor SME’s on immigrant recruitment, hiring, retention and promotion
Work with large employers (eg, hospitals) to develop mentoring programs for ALL occupations

Conclusions
Wonderful initiatives taking place across the country
How transform individual projects to sustainable imbedded systems?
Need for rigorous evaluation, data, stories
Need for collective policy and program activism
Need for continued public advocacy on the benefits of immigration
Immigration patterns and policies are constantly evolving
Labour markets are constantly changing and differ across the country
Extremely difficult to get both in synch but vigilance necessary to see and act on early warnings recognizing broader context and implications
Strategies to address the diversity of our employee pool will ensure we have the workforce we need and the citizens our communities need to thrive

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Naomi Alboim - Planning for the Future: Immigration and Labour Market Trends

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Naomi Alboim - Planning for the Future: Immigration and Labour Market Trends Presentation Transcript