Draft wi impact model jan14 2013


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The State of Wisconsin actively seeks to expand broadband availability and use. With affordable and adequate broadband the state is better position to be economically competitive and provide the quality of living that is expected by residents and the business community.

Two scenarios are considered in this study:

All residents and businesses in Wisconsin have access to a wireline broadband service (copper, cable or fiber) that delivers service at the nationally prescribed standard of 4 Mbps download speed.

A robust LTE mobile wireless (or equivalent) service delivers at least 10 Mbps download connection to every location where people live and work in Wisconsin.

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Draft wi impact model jan14 2013

  1. 1. 1
  2. 2. AT A GLANCE Economic and Social Impact of Broadband Investments in Wisconsin Situation Impact Unmet Demand Very High/High Medium Low/Very Low Annual Construction and Operations Impact 35 counties 16 counties 21 counties Wireline: 1,900 jobs and $290 million in WI business sales. Wireless: 1,900 jobs and $340 Million in WI business sales. Opportunity Impacts Enabled by Expanded Broadband All Wisconsin residents can access a national standard wireline connection. o 560,000 residents would receive access to at least 4 Mbps download. Improved educational opportunities Economic development in areas receiving investment Wireline Construction 5 Yr. Operations 5 Yr. Total Cost Wireless Construction 5 Yr. Operations 5 Yr. Total Cost 125,000 WI residents Enhanced public safety as a result of LTE mobile wireless deployment Cost 2,000 jobs annually Expansion of Health Care Access at home All residents can access a robust LTE wireless connection. o 870,000 residents would receive access to at least a 10 Mbps download wireless service. 98,000 students 50% of Wisconsin land area $80 million sales $939,290,000 $446,485,000 $1,385,775,000 $807,000,000 $1,800,400,000 $2,607,400,000 2
  3. 3. INTRODUCTION The State of Wisconsin actively seeks to expand broadband availability and use. With affordable and adequate broadband the state is better position to be economically competitive and provide the quality of living that is expected by residents and the business community. Two scenarios are considered in this study: All residents and businesses in Wisconsin have access to a wireline broadband service (copper, cable or fiber) that delivers service at the nationally prescribed standard of 4 Mbps download speed. A robust LTE mobile wireless (or equivalent) service delivers at least 10 Mbps download connection to every location where people live and work in Wisconsin. A customized application of the LinkWISCONSIN broadband cost model was implemented to provide a high level estimate of the overall construction and annual operations investment that would be required for each of these scenarios. Using the costs as a starting point, the associated employment and sales impact that would result from the fulfillment of each scenario is estimated. In addition, consideration is given to the impact on four priority state objectives for broadband identified through a recent interview of Wisconsin broadband stakeholders. These include: Bettering the lives of Wisconsin’s youth through improved education Expanding economic development, especially into the state’s rural counties Improving health care access Strengthening Public Safety The investment costs as well as Wisconsin benefit projected to result from those investments are considered in the broader context of unmet demand for broadband throughout the state. 3
  4. 4. THE SITUATION There is a substantial difference in the demand for, and supply of, broadband across the state of Wisconsin. Broadband supply and demand is closely related to factors such as local demographics, population density and business structure. This section provides a brief overview of the current situation in Wisconsin. Broadband Demand Wisconsin recently completed an extensive assessment residential and business broadband demand1. The map below identifies counties as belonging to one of five categories based on unmet demand for broadband determined through consumer survey responses2. Unmet Broadband Demand Identified by County A summary of results for this study are available on the Wisconsin Broadband Dashboard at http://wisconsindashboard.org . 2 Unmet demand is defined as the percentage of respondents in each county that report they do not have access to an acceptable Internet option meeting their needs. For several counties unmet demand estimated based on availability data due to an inadequate number of county responses to demand survey. A complete listing of counties and their percentages appears as Appendix A. 1 4
  5. 5. Rural Land Area and Unmet Demand Sixteen Wisconsin Counties are classified as “very high” unmet demand (more than two-thirds unsatisfied or not connected) and 19 are classified as “high” unmet demand (between 55% and 64% unsatisfied or not connected). These counties are largely rural. The average population density is 35 people per square mile for the “very high” group; and an average of 55 people per square mile for the 19 counties classified as “high” unmet demand. This in stark contrast to a much higher density in “medium” (45% to 54%), “low” (35% to 44%) and “very low” (less than 34%) unmet demand counties . (See chart below). Average Persons Per Square Mile by Unmet Demand Group A high proportion or rural land area relative to population impacts unmet demand for broadband in at least two major ways. First are the implications for broadband availability or supply. When customers are spread out of a large land area, it is expensive to deploy broadband solutions. Also mountains, valleys and lakes are common in many rural Wisconsin areas. This increases the cost of deployment. Also because people living in more remote areas must travel long distances to doctors, school, shopping and so forth, there is a particular demand or value for digital solutions that can reduce travel costs. These are just examples of factors associated with limited population and demand. Income and Education Income is closely correlated with other demographic factors, including education, and is a recognized important factor in determining broadband demand. Households with access to higher incomes are more able to afford broadband and are more likely to purchase premium bundled packages. Communities with higher income are attractive targets for private broadband providers, as they are perceived 5
  6. 6. to be more profitable opportunities (everything else equal). Unmet demand in communities with lower income can be the result of both a perceived lack of affordability and limited service offering. The chart below illustrates that Wisconsin Counties with higher unmet demand tend to have lower per capita income than counties with medium, low or very low unmet demand. Comparison of Per Capita Income by Unmet Demand Group Education is closely related to income. The chart below illustrates the pattern of counties with lower educational attainment are more often in the very high or high unmet demand county groups. Comparison of Percent with Bachelors Degree by Unmet Demand Group 6
  7. 7. Households with less education often have less income to spend. Also education is closely associated with intensity of use of residential Internet. Other factors may also be important. For example communities with a more educated population often value schools more highly which results in innovations such as deployment of digital learning at school. Similarly may be more inclined to accept telemedicine or use digital resources at local libraries. With education and higher incomes there is more public taxpayer support for these institutions. Institutional demand for broadband at schools, libraries and hospitals is one factor that is an important driver of broadband investment. Another reason why communities with less education and income are less likely be targets for private broadband investment. Age Those born after the 1990 have never known a time when there was not an Internet and have difficulty imaging a world without the Internet. However, for older Wisconsinites, the Internet is a new introduction for some viewed as beneficial and for others viewed as less beneficial. In general a higher proportion of older residents are less likely to value the Internet. Comparison of Age Distribution for Very High and Very Low Unmet Demand Groups Very Low Unmet Demand Very High Unmet Demand The chart above compares the average age distribution for counties classified as high- unmet demand and low unmet demand. In general counties with high unmet demand tend to have an older population and in particular a smaller share of the population in the critical age category 20 to 44 years. This data again illustrates that even among populations that as a group may value connection to the Internet less (e.g. those over 65), there is still a significant demand. But the supply side can be 7
  8. 8. less responsive in meeting that demand as the market response tends towards higher demand populations, everything else equal. Broadband Supply As noted above, broadband supply and unmet demand are closely related. Providers responding to market incentives are less likely to deploy broadband investment in areas where low population density makes such deployment less profitable or demographic factors lower potential market opportunities per capita. As a result, many counties in the state with high unmet demand are the same counties with more limited broadband availability. Distribution of Percent Population with Access to National Standard Wireline Broadband by County Distribution of Approximate Percent Population with Access to LTE Standard Broadband3 by County Very High or High Unmet Demand Counties Medium Unmet Demand Counties Very Low or Low Unmet Demand Counties Defined as percent of population with access to a reported wireless provider delivering at least 10 Mbps download. 3 8
  9. 9. The above two charts illustrates that the availability of broadband supply varies in a pattern similar to unmet demand for the 71 Wisconsin Counties. The percentage of wireline and wireless broadband availability tends to be lowest for counties classified as “very high” or “high” unmet demand (indicated by red blocks). A detailed listing of percent population with access to national standard wireline or LTE standard wireless by county is provided as Appendix B. THE OPPORTUNITY LinkWISCONSIN recently implemented a 360 degree broadband stakeholder interview process to assess areas of consensus on the state’s desired future by 2018 as well as critical actions, actors and resources required to achieve that desired future. At a high level, actions to reduce unmet demand for both wireline and mobile wireless broadband services are core to achieving the state’s desired future. There is a general perspective among most Wisconsin stakeholders that the most practical path forward is finding ways to incent additional market investment to the full extent possible. To some extent there is an expectation that continued technological change, especially with respect to wireless technologies will help advance solutions. However other actions include such things as leadership from the Wisconsin Governor’s office establishing state priority and direction; available transparent data to support good decision making as well as to monitor progress; organized local community initiatives led by local champions; legislative reforms that can reduce the cost of acquiring right of way; and leveraging of Wisconsin’s universal service authority where appropriate. It is important however to recognize that the opportunity perceived by Wisconsin stakeholders is not to bring every resident and business access to affordable quality broadband. Rather the opportunity perceived is rooted in what can be achieved through better available and more well utilized broadband services. Three examples are: Bettering the lives of Wisconsin’s youth through improved education Expanding economic development, especially into the state’s rural counties Improving health care access Strengthening Public Safety Each of these four examples is explained briefly below. 9
  10. 10. Interview Insights: Wisconsin Broadband Opportunities in 2018 Bettering the Lives of Wisconsin’s Youth Through Improved Education In Wisconsin, the leveraging of broadband to expand educational access to help kids gain 21st Century workforce skills should be a high priority. As BadgerNet continues to roll out to all School Districts can receive a gigabit connection. However, 21st Century education does not simply take place in the classroom but also requires connection of teachers and administrators to homes. Wisconsin’s success in meeting the needs of youth will require a drive to expand connectivity to homes where school age kids are present. The BadgerNet network can provide additional capacity to WI rural communities. Wireless technologies are an important part of the mix connecting households to the educational network. Chances of success will be improved if Wisconsinimplements some initial pilots that demonstrate the value of broadband improving educational outcomes for students with better connections to schools and also between schools and homes. Another important motivation behind the focus on youth is a desire to make it possible - if not attractive - for rural youth to stay and build careers and lives in rural Wisconsin Expanding Economic Development, Especially Into the State’s Rural Counties The critical importance of broadband for business and economic development is widely recognized and is a significant reason for engagement by local community leaders. For example municipalities and Tribal communities in northern WI in particular recognize that the important visitor and recreation sector requires visitors to have access to connectivity. The important second home industry can prosper as more people can work from home and maintain connection from second homes. The result is the ability to spend more days in the Northwoods and other rural Wisconsin areas contributing the economy. Businesses of all types benefit from expanded broadband connections. Telecommuting has become a more important factor in supporting rural economies. Some advocate establishing broadband ready communities is an option to encourage local engagement. All of these economic development approaches require broadband. Because of the importance for local development, local EDCs, Chambers as well as WEDA are likely active champions for Wisconsin broadband. Improving Health Care Access Broadband is utilized to make health care in Wisconsin more accessible and affordable. Telehealth can substantially reduce the need to travel to a doctor’s office. Patient information follows patient with centralized database that can be access where the patient is at. Home health monitoring and patient consultation allows aging population to live at home longer and improves quality of life. Barriers of 10
  11. 11. health care reimbursement not being consistent with home-based delivery is essential to take advantage of the opportunity presented through broadband. Tribal health centers can provide access to interactive video delivery of mental health and substance abuse treatment professionals for that important typically underserved population. A combination of mobile broadband and high speed wireline (including fiber) connections can support health care needs in state. Health care outcomes can be improved and costs of health care access minimized by the use of broadband. Health care networks can continue to become more "open" driven in large part by consumers increasing demand for access to their healthcare related information anytime anywhere on any device. Another significant driver to advancements in health care broadband related connectivity is an increase in the size of medical groups where an increasing number of physicians and other healthcare workers require advanced access to one another. Strengthening Public Safety Public safety utilizes interoperability across technology platforms (mobile and fixed) and among emergency response sectors. State government, led by the State CIO Office and PSC provides leadership in finding solutions to share commercial and public safety infrastructure. Protecting security and integrity of public safety network is possible while maximizing use of available infrastructure. The deployment of an efficient and effective public safety network can be enhanced by legislation that helped improved siting and sharing of towers. THE COST Most of Wisconsin’s vision for opportunities to be achieved through better available, affordable and quality broadband require homes and businesses at a minimum have access to a national standard wireline (or equivalent fixed wireless service) and/or a robust LTE wireless connection. Fixed broadband services (whether wired or wireless) and mobile broadband wireless are not entirely substitutes. Mobile wireless solutions, for example are particularly important to businesses such as farms where the operation can be spread over many acres or for mobile enterprises such as trucking and public safety first responders. On the other hand, fixed broadband services (especially those that are fiber based) offer the potential of higher speed delivery and greater data security. While technologies continue to improve, consumer survey data reveals that as of 2013, consumer satisfaction is significantly greater for broadband delivered from wireline and fixed wireless technologies, than is the case for mobile broadband or satellite technologies4. Ideally, to fully achieve Wisconsin’s broadband vision for 2018 as articulated by stakeholders, both a fixed broadband solution and a robust mobile broadband solution would be to the extent possible available to every area of the state. 4 Results from Wisconsin Broadband Demand Survey 11
  12. 12. This section of the report focuses on two scenarios. The first scenario is the deployment of a national standard wireline solution to every inhabited census block in the state. The second scenario posits the availability of an LTE standard wireless broadband service is available to every census block in the state. Specifically the modeled cost for each of these two scenarios is summarized. Infrastructure Cost Scenario 1: National Standard Wireline Broadband Service Available to Every Inhabited Census Block in Wisconsin. This first cost scenario reflects the objective of extending, and where necessary upgrading, the existing wireline telephone network. The engineering design used in the model5 is to create the capability of delivering every resident and business in Wisconsin the option to purchase a national standard wireline broadband service (4 Mbps download and 1 Mbps upload speed). It is recognized this objective could also be achieved through wireless technologies as well. Number of People Who Lack Access to a National Wireline Standard Broadband Service Profiled by Unmet Demand Groups Unmet Demand County Group: High or Very High Medium Low or Very Low Approximately 560,000 people in Wisconsin live in areas where there is not wireline broadband service provider advertising the option of purchasing a broadband service that delivers at least 4 Mbps download and 1 Mbps upload speed.6 Just over 50% live in counties that are classified as high or very high unmet demand based on the Wisconsin broadband demand survey. 5 6 Special run of the LinkWISCONSIN cost model conducted by CostQuest Associates. http://wisconsindashboard.org 12
  13. 13. Total Construction and Five Year Operations Cost of Filling Wireline Gaps to National Standard Unmet Demand County Group: High or Very High Medium Low or Very Low Demand Group Construction Cost Five Year Operations Cost High or Very High $567,923,041 $261,090,210 Medium $200,188,229 $99,937,245 Low or Very Low $171,177,952 $85,456,865 TOTAL $939,289,222 $446,484,320 Overall, approximately 1.5 billion dollars would be required to expand and upgrade the existing wireline broadband network to provide every resident and business in the state with access to a national standard wireline broadband solution. The costs are approximately proportional with the location of residents presently not served by a national standard wireline broadband service. That is, about half the necessary expenditures are in the largely rural and often remote high or very high unmet demand counties. 13
  14. 14. Wireline Upgrade Cost Per Capita Wireline Upgrade Cost Per Beneficiary The necessary wireline upgrade costs per capita for this scenario are substantially greater for the very high and the high, unmet demand counties compared with the rest of the state. This is primary because of the low population density typical for many counties in the high and very high groups. As noted above, costs of deployment increase with lower population density and terrain challenges such as lakes and forests. When considered on a cost per beneficiary basis7, the same trend applies. However, the difference across demand groups is less stark. Infrastructure Cost Scenario 2: A Robust LTE Broadband Service8 Available to Every Inhabited Census Block in Wisconsin. This second cost scenario reflects the objective of extending, and where necessary upgrading, the existing wireless telephone network. The engineering design used in the model9 is to create the capability of delivering every resident and business in Wisconsin the option to purchase a mobile wireless broadband solution that delivers a dependable 10 Mbps download speed at their home location. Per beneficiary is the total upgrade cost for a group divided by the number of residents that presently do not have access to a national standard wireline broadband service. 8 Capable of delivering at least 10 Mbps download 9 Special run of the LinkWISCONSIN cost model conducted by CostQuest Associates. 7 14
  15. 15. Number of People Who Lack Access to a 10 Mbps LTE Capable Mobile Service Profiled by Unmet Demand Groups Unmet Demand County Group: High or Very High Medium Low or Very Low Approximately 870,000 Wisconsin residents live in areas where there is not advertised mobile wireless service capable of delivering 10 Mbps download speeds. As is the case for wireline gaps, approximately half of these individuals are in counties identified as high or very high, unmet demand. Total Construction and Five Year Operations Cost of Filling Wireless LTE Gaps Unmet Demand County Group: High or Very High Medium Low or Very Low Demand Group Construction Cost Five Year Operations Cost High or Very High $321,921,749 $692,758,296 Medium $224,255,873 $503,220,858 Low or Very Low $260,915,869 $604,426,122 TOTAL $807,093,491 $1,800,405,277 15
  16. 16. The modeled cost of providing access to a robust LTE service delivering 10 Mbps download to where all Wisconsin residents live is estimated at approximately 2.6 billion dollars. It is important to keep in mind that the modeled costs are only for the availability in census blocks where people live. Especially in northern Wisconsin, there are substantial public and private recreational lands. A goal of delivering a robust mobile wireless capability to all land area in Wisconsin would likely be substantially more costly. Of note, the distribution of modeled costs between construction and operations is different for wireless technologies than is the case for wireline. Specifically, operations costs are a substantially more significant share of total costs. A primary reason is that wireless towers need access to a fiber or microwave connection to reach the Internet. These connections are modeled as leased facilities and a part of the operations cost, not a part of the initial construction cost. Wireless Upgrade Cost Per Capita Wireless Upgrade Cost Per Beneficiary Similar to the results for wireline upgrades, the cost of wireless broadband upgrades required to fulfill the scenario are greater on per capita basis for the very high and high unmet demand counties. Again this is due to topological and population density reality. However, it is noteworthy that when considered on a per beneficiary basis, the cost per beneficiary is nearly twice as great for low unmet demand counties when compared with very high and high, unmet demand counties. THE IMPACT The impact of broadband provider investments on the Wisconsin economy and quality of life has multiple components including: The jobs and sales impacts from purchases of labor and supplies within Wisconsin Multiplier impacts as those businesses and workers spend a portion of resulting earning and sales within the local economy 16
  17. 17. New jobs and sales enabled at the local level as a result of better available broadband More sustainable and vibrant communities facilitated through improved broadband access. The direct and economic multiplier impact of new construction as well as on-going broadband provider operations expenditures is just the tip of the iceberg. The improved economy and quality of life enabled by more available quality and affordable broadband ties directly to the state’s vision of what can be achieved through private and public partnerships to expand broadband access and use. Wisconsin Specific Construction and Operations Expenditures As noted above, billions of dollars of investment would be required to bring national standard wireline connections and a robust mobile wireless option to every location where Wisconsin residents live. However, to model the direct and economic multiplier impact of those investments it is necessary to first estimate the dollar amount of investment that will be purchased within the state of Wisconsin. For purposes of this study, several assumptions are made: 1. Electronic components are purchased from venders outside the state of Wisconsin 2. Spectrum purchases flow to out of state sources 3. Approximately one-third of tower and related equipment purchased in-state 4. Approximately fifty percent of wireline construction expenditures are from instate sources 5. Eighty percent of wireline operations assumed from in-state sources 6. Fifty percent of wireless operations assumed from in-state sources With these assumptions, Wisconsin specific construction and operations expenditures for each scenario are estimated as follows: Within State Construction Expenditures Scenario 1- Fill national standard wireline gaps Scenario 2- Fill robust mobile wireless gaps Total Five Year Within State Expenditures $470,000,000 Within State Operations Expenditures (Over Five Years) $360,000,000 $240,000,000 $900,000,000 $1,140,000,000 $830,000,000 Modeled Wisconsin Economic Impact Attributed to Construction and Operations 17
  18. 18. The IMPLAN10 “Input-Output” is a common economic modeling tool utilized to assess the overall impact on local jobs and output associated with a major new construction investment. The model provides Wisconsin specific estimates of how a new major expenditure will impact jobs, sales, wages, business profits, tax revenues and other metric. For purpose of this study, the focus of the economic impact is on two metric; jobs and sales. Specifically the model considers two types of within state impacts. First is the direct number of new jobs as a result of within state spending (purchases of goods, services and labor) resulting from new broadband provider investments. Those paid for work accomplished either in construction or operations as well as businesses that make additional sales to support those activities will have additional income. A portion of that new business and labor income will in-turn be spent at local stores and businesses; as well as go towards payments such as local and state taxes. These resulting additional expenditures create what is known as a “multiplier effect”. The multiplier effect is measured in terms of additional jobs and sales that result. Average Annual WI Total Job and Sales Impact Associated with Broadband Construction and Operations Investment Ave. Annual Impact on WI Jobs Due to Construction Ave. Annual Impact on WI Sales ($ Millions) Due to Operations The modeled impact of broadband investment estimates that just over 1,900 new jobs would be created annually directly as a result of construction and network operations for each of the two scenarios. Investments upgrading the wireline network to a national standard in all locations would create an annual impact on business sales just less than $300 million per year. The upgrades needed to deploy a robust LTE network accessible to every resident where they live is estimated to create just over $300 million per year. 10 http://implan.com 18
  19. 19. Average Annual Job Creation by Major Sector (examples) WI Economic Sector Construction Telecommunications Food Services Architectural, engineering & related Employment Services Real Estate Hospitals Wholesale Trade Retail Stores Banks Transport by Truck Legal Services National Standard Wireline 4,129 840 392 380 215 187 150 136 119 100 73 56 Robust LTE Wireless 2,108 2,066 460 349 335 245 152 136 112 134 62 64 For both scenarios, approximately one-half of the Wisconsin jobs impact from construction and operations is in the construction and telecommunications sectors. Wireless builds have generally a smaller impact on construction and a larger impact on the telecommunications sector compared with the wireline build. Many other economic sectors are impacted through the “multiplier effect”. For example, food services (restaurants and drinking places), on average gain 392 jobs annually in the first scenario and 460 jobs annually in the second scenario as a result of multiplier spending. Impact for Wisconsin Priorities As noted above, Wisconsin stakeholders recognize addressing the current gaps in broadband availability is of particular importance for the state’s goals in education, economic development, health care and public safety. Within this context, this section briefly summarizes the economic and quality of life associated with investments that would address the current gaps in national standard wireline and statewide access to a robust wireless option. Bettering the Lives of Wisconsin’s Youth Through Improved Education 19
  20. 20. How can filling WI broadband gaps benefit youth through improved education? Students can connect with teachers and resources to facilitate home-based learning and successful homework completion. Parents are better able to monitor student’s progress. Access to teaching and learning resources can be greatly expanded. Youth can research and connect with college and career opportunities. Learning loss associated with weather or illness can be minimized. Youth can participate in on-line classes to supplement curriculum which may not always be available locally. Schools can more efficiently interact to meet the needs of the local community and business employer needs. Wisconsin residents of all ages can benefit from continuous on-line learning. Youth can gain critical digital literacy skills needed for the 21st century workforce. Extending the benefits of Wisconsin’s educational backbone networks beyond the school door boundaries. Fulfilling either or a combination of the goals of expanding access to national standard wireline broadband connections or extending a robust wireless option to areas of Wisconsin where not presently available has significant benefit for Wisconsin youth. Specifically by facilitating access to better educational opportunities. Several examples cited in the box above. Wisconsin has had a longer-term policy of improving educational access through the BadgerNet network. In addition, many schools across the state have benefited from the high speed connections delivered by the WiscNet backbone. However anchor institution data collected as a part of the national broadband data collection initiative reveals that broadband speeds connecting schools are lowest in many of the same areas where there remains substantial unmet demand for higher speed broadband services. 20
  21. 21. Percent of Schools With Under 10 Mbps Connections Percent of Schools with Over 100 Mbps Connections In Wisconsin, approximately one-half of all schools located in areas identified as very high or high demand for broadband are presently served by a connection less than 10 mbps. Connections less than 10 mbps are very limiting with respect to the ability of schools to effectively take advantage of the more robust teaching and learning technologies, especially those that may be data intensive or utilize high speed interactive video approaches for multiple classrooms. Today’s and certainly future educational technologies are believed by many educational experts to require at least a gigabit connection. At the present time very few schools in high and very high demand areas of the state have even a connection to even a 100 Mbps. Only in areas identified as very low demand is the percentage of schools with this higher level of connectivity exceeding 25%. There is strong support in Wisconsin for continuing to improve connectivity to schools throughout the state. However to fully leverage the benefits of expanded connections to schools, it is also necessary to have affordable and adequate connectivity to homes to support the broader types of educational benefits identified above. 21
  22. 22. Estimated Number of School Age Kids in Homes Without Access to a National Wireline Standard Broadband Service Profiled by Unmet Demand Groups Unmet Demand County Group: High or Very High Medium Low or Very Low Approximately 98,000 school age youth (ages 5 to 17) live in areas that currently lack a national wireline broadband service. About half of these youth live in the counties identified as high unmet demand or as very high unmet demand. The young people would be among important beneficiaries of policies or actions leading to filling Wisconsin’s broadband gaps. Expanding Economic Development, Especially Into the State’s Rural Counties Project Annual Wisconsin Job Growth Dependent Upon Available Broadband 22
  23. 23. The Office of Economic Advisors, Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development estimates long term employment projections by major industry categories11. The US Department of Labor inventories skills required by detailed occupational and industry categories12. Using this data source it is possible to identify the share of occupations within each industry category that require skills involving the use of computers and the Internet. These two data sources were combined to create the pie chart above. Specifically approximately 35,000 new jobs are projected for growth in Wisconsin each year that are tied in some way to the availability and use of broadband. Communities or areas without access to adequate broadband will be at a disadvantage in attracting or retaining these new jobs. 11http://worknet.wisconsin.gov/WORKnet/datablelist.aspx?menuselection=da 12http://www.onetonline.org/ 23
  24. 24. Wisconsin Economic Sectors Classified by Broadband Enabled Growth Potential Economic Sector Percent of Occupation Tied to Broadband Very Fast Growth Business and Technical Services Health Care Fast Growth Banking, Insurance and Real Estate Retail and Personal Services Wholesale, Transport and Utilities Hospitality and Entertainment Slow Growth Construction Private and Public Education Manufacturing Agriculture and Natural Resources 95% 96% 93% 80% 68% 27% 44% 86% 68% 57% The above table classifies major economic sectors by broadband enabled growth potential in Wisconsin. The relative growth potential is determined as a combination of projected employment growth in Wisconsin and the percentage of occupations within the sector that are tied to the availability and use of broadband in some way. For example the two very fast growth economic sectors are both projected to be rapidly growing sectors in Wisconsin and also involve an intensive use of computers, databases and the Internet. On the other end of the spectrum, the delivery of educational services does involve substantial broadband use, but the sector is expected to grow relatively slowly in Wisconsin. Comparison of Broadband Enabled Growth Sectors by Demand Group Very High or High Unmet Demand Counties Medium Unmet Demand Counties Very Low or Low Unmet Demand Counties 24
  25. 25. The above chart illustrates that Counties classified as very high or high unmet demand tend to have a lower concentration of “very fast” and a higher concentration of “slow” broadband enabled growth sectors compared with the rest of the state. This likely reflects in part the importance of broadband availability in business location choices for fast growing sectors such as business/technical services and health care. The overall implication for the largely rural regions of the state with high or very high unmet demand is that current economic trends are less favorable to future economic development compared with the other areas of the state where broadband demand is more fulfilled. How Can Broadband Upgrades Facilitate Rural Economic Development? Quality web and interactive video connections make it more possible to live in a rural area and telecommute to work elsewhere Farms and ranches are better able to take advantage of precision agriculture applications to improve profitability. Businesses of all types can market products and services on-line Second home-owners are able to stay in rural Wisconsin longer by staying in touch with family and work via broadband. Today’s visitors and tourists often prefer to stay in locations where there is a convenient wifi connection to stay in touch. On-line access becoming increasingly required to comply with government programs and regulations. Access to affordable and quality broadband is critical for today’s business and will become increasingly important in the future. Several examples of how broadband contributes to rural economic development are listed in the box above. More than 90 percent of Wisconsin businesses rely on access to the Internet to conduct daily activities13. Access to adequate Internet is viewed as “critical” by approximately three-quarters of Wisconsin businesses14. Areas of Wisconsin that do not have available national standard wireline and/or a robust wireless option will be at a significant disadvantage in attracting and retaining jobs. 13LinkWisconsin 14LinkWisconsin business demand survey, 2013 business demand survey 2013 25
  26. 26. Estimated Number of Annual Jobs and Main Street Sales15($Millions) Retained or Gained in Areas The Would Receive a Broadband Upgrade by Demand Group Annual Jobs Retained or Gained in Areas Receiving Upgrade Annual Main Street Business Sales Retained or Gained in Areas Receiving Upgrade ($Millions) More than 2,000 jobs annual are projected to be retained or gained in areas that would receive a broadband upgrade if one or both of the two major scenarios proposed in this study is accomplished. These jobs are those enabled by better available broadband and are in addition the jobs that would be created from broadband construction and operation. In rural Wisconsin new job growth from telecommuting, expanded tourism or business development improves the overall viability of Main Street. It is estimated that approximately $80 million of“Main Street” sales would be retained or gained in areas that receive an upgrade. Most of those economic gains would go to the predominantly rural counties identified as very high, high or medium unmet demand. Estimated sales by retail and service business in areas where upgrades are implemented. Data source is IMPLAN. 15 26
  27. 27. Improving Health Care Access Health care employs nearly 400,000 people in Wisconsin, and the sector is projected to grow rapidly over the next several years (projected to increase about 2 percent per year). The sector is going through dynamic change with rapid deployment and use of integrated electronic medical records, increasing use of video and web based technologies to improve patient access in rural areas, creative approaches to patient care at home and other applications. About 96 percent of health care occupations rely in some way on broadband availability and use. Profile of Medical Facility Locations Relative to Broadband Availability for Selected Wisconsin Counties The above markers indicate the location of medical facilities included within the Wisconsin “anchor institution” database16, profiled for several northern Wisconsin Counties. The map layers are color coded to reflect broadband availability at the census block level. People living in those census blocks with a red or brown color do not have access to any wired or wireless broadband provider that offers a national standard service (at least 4 Mbps download and 1 Mbps upload). Census Blocks indicated by a yellow color meet national standard. Those that are green exceed the national standard. Of note, in northern Wisconsin as is the case throughout the state, the medical facilities are located in locations with good broadband connectivity. However, for much of the surrounding area, the available broadband service option does not meet the national speed standard. 16 National Broadband Map, December 2012. 27
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  29. 29. How Can Filling Residential Broadband Gaps Improve Health Access? Patients can save time and money by monitoring their health symptoms at home rather than traveling to the doctor’s office. Older residents can stay in their homes longer by accessing care at home rather than having to move closer to medical care. Residents living in outlying areas can avoid potentially unsafe travel on winter roads. Doctors and nurses living in outlying areas can respond to emergencies from their home providing faster service and overall efficiencies for the rural health care system. Residents can research solutions to health problems on-line and get information on preventive care options. Many home-based health care options can be accomplished with either a national standard wireline broadband connection or an equivalent robust wireless solution. Those residents living in areas that lack access to either of these technology options would benefit the most from additional broadband investment reaching unserved and underserved populations. 29
  30. 30. Estimated Number of People in Homes Without Access to a National WirelineOR Wireless Standard Broadband Service Profiled by Unmet Demand Groups Unmet Demand County Group: High or Very High Medium Low or Very Low Approximately 125,000 Wisconsin residents live in areas where there is neither an advertised wireline providing national standard service, or an equivalent wireless optioin. About 80 percent of these residents live in counties classified as high or very high unmet broadband demand. 30
  31. 31. Strengthening Public Safety Public safety is a complex and diverse sector. It includes multiple first responders, law enforcement, fire, E-911, health care, disaster preparedness federal agencies and others. Public safety also includes access to alerts and other safety information by people at home, work or at play. Much of the public safety communications needs are fulfilled through wireless networks. Because the sector is so diverse with so many different local and regional entities involved, the data on public safety connection is also limited. Broadband Speeds17 Connecting Wisconsin Public Safety Functions According to anchor institution data collected for the National Broadband Map, nearly 80 percent of Wisconsin public safey facilities do not presently subscribe to broadband. Among those that do subscribe, approximately one-third subscribe to services that deliver a speed lower than the national standard. Only about one-fifth benefit from broadband connectivity in excess of 25 Mbps. In Wisconsin, like many other states, mobile public safety communication is primarily accomplished through dedicated land mobile radio. The Internet is relatively less utilized for this reason. Nevertheless, efforts to reduce broadband gaps, especially those associated with the provision of a robust wireless option can lead to benefits. 17 National Broadband Map anchor institution data summary 31
  32. 32. How Can Wisconsin Public Safety Benefit From Expanded LTE Service? First responders can more easily locate accidents or other emergencies in remote locations. First responders can both access and send data and images to the hospital from the scene of the emergency saving lives. Truckers and other travelers can receive emergency weather and other alerts. Law enforcement and others can more seamlessly communicate across jurisdictions as required for effective response. Emergency vehicle fleets can be more efficiently dispatched and managed. While the public safety community will likely continue relying on land mobile radio as the primary form of mobile emergency communication for some time, the above list includes several ways a robust LTE network can further enhance emergency response and communication. Current Location of Robust LTE Wireless Network (Designated as Green) 32
  33. 33. While the build-out of a robust LTE wireless network is being accomplished rapidly in Wisconsin, the availability map illustrates a current disparity. The more populated southern half of the state is more heavily served by these wireless options. The northern counties have larger gaps in service. Improvements in public safety communication not only benefit local residents in those areas where upgrades occur. They would benefit everyone who may travel to more remote locations of the state for recreation, business or visiting family and friends. Overall, public safety response and preparedness would be enhanced on about 50% of Wisconsin’s land area if the current gaps in the LTE wireless network were filled. CONCLUSION At a high level the greatest unmet demand for broadband in Wisconsin is primarily in the more rural counties located in the northern half of the state as well as in the southwest corner of Wisconsin. Every county in Wisconsin will potentially benefit from filling broadband service gaps. However those counties that have a very high or high demand for broadband stand to benefit the most. In short, continued efforts to expand the availability of affordable broadband throughout Wisconsin can “level the playing field” to ensure all residents and businesses in the state can have a prosperous and sustainable future. 33
  34. 34. APPENDIX A Very Low and Low Unmet Demand Counties Buffalo Survey Responses 97 Unmet Demand 18% Winnebago Survey Responses 129 Unmet Demand 41% Ozaukee 84 Vernon 58 23% Rock 141 41% 24% Florence 72 42% Wood 221 29% Green Lake 65 43% Kenosha 208 30% Eau Claire 118 43% Milwaukee 75 32% Polk 90 43% Racine 40 32% Shawano 30 43% Waukesha 66 35% Jefferson 145 43% Sauk 1,327 36% Walworth 54 44% Barron 92 37% Unmet Demand 58% Medium Unmet Demand Counties Dane Survey Responses 156 Unmet Demand 46% Portage Survey Responses 66 Outagamie 93 46% Dunn 144 58% Sheboygan 62 47% Rusk 173 58% Burnett 74 47% Columbia 165 59% Marathon 408 47% Oneida 228 60% Waupaca 63 48% Iowa 205 60% Brown 48 48% Fond du Lac 1028 61% Oconto 65 52% Dodge 54 61% Chippewa 172 54% Price 543 62% Iron 53 55% Juneau 52 62% Adams 96 55% Bayfield 114 62% 34
  35. 35. High and Very High Unmet Demand Counties Marquette Survey Responses 157 Unmet Demand 63% Ashland Survey Responses 85 Unmet Demand 69% Waushara 49 63% Crawford 167 69% Clark 179 64% Pierce 137 70% Jackson 174 64% Grant 108 70% Lafayette 142 65% Taylor 195 72% Richland 165 65% Door 76 72% Marinette 159 66% Washburn 48 73% Forest 175 66% Kewaunee 242 74% Douglas 78 67% Lincoln 177 77% Langlade 209 67% Vilas 298 78% St. Croix 625 68% Inadequate Survey Responses to Determine Unmet Demand Calumet Survey Responses 16 Unmet Demand NA Monroe Survey Responses 20 Unmet Demand NA Green 22 NA Pepin 9 NA La Crosse Manitowoc 17 NA Sawyer 29 NA 16 NA Trempealeau 28 NA Menominee 2 NA Washington 21 NA 35
  36. 36. APPENDIX B Percent County Population with Access To: County Adams Ashland Barron Bayfield Brown Buffalo Burnett Calumet Chippewa Clark Columbia Crawford Dane Dodge Door Douglas Dunn Eau Claire Florence Fond du Lac Forest Grant Green Green Lake Iowa Iron Jackson Jefferson Juneau Kenosha Kewaunee La Crosse Lafayette Langlade Lincoln National Std. Wireline Service 73% 76% 93% 61% 96% 83% 73% 90% 85% 53% 83% 63% 97% 85% 75% 79% 82% 91% 46% 85% 61% 74% 78% 75% 71% 71% 63% 86% 82% 98% 62% 93% 64% 69% 74% 36 Robust LTE Wireless Service 55% 76% 93% 61% 96% 54% 71% 87% 84% 40% 65% 52% 95% 80% 68% 79% 82% 91% 46% 82% 56% 57% 56% 75% 65% 71% 56% 84% 32% 98% 62% 93% 38% 60% 63%
  37. 37. Manitowoc County Marathon Marinette Marquette Menominee Milwaukee Monroe Oconto Oneida Outagamie Ozaukee Pepin Pierce Polk Portage Price Racine Richland Rock Rusk Sauk Sawyer Shawano Sheboygan St. Croix Taylor Trempealeau Vernon Vilas Walworth Washburn Washington Waukesha Waupaca Waushara Winnebago Wood 90% (Continued) National Std. Wireline Service 83% 64% 78% 0% 100% 75% 72% 72% 94% 99% 78% 73% 84% 83% 65% 97% 57% 93% 68% 85% 72% 61% 94% 90% 49% 77% 81% 65% 92% 69% 96% 99% 72% 62% 96% 88% 37 82% Robust LTE Wireless Service 75% 64% 67% 0% 100% 75% 66% 69% 94% 97% 19% 66% 59% 75% 30% 97% 52% 91% 56% 82% 61% 47% 91% 76% 37% 48% 70% 48% 88% 69% 94% 99% 69% 62% 96% 82%
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