Mobile Internet
                  is
          Bigger
          than most
    Think it is.



 Jason Grigsby • SAO Dec 200...
Mobile is the Technology that Cried Wolf.




                   Flickr photo by CaptPiper: http://www.flickr.com/photos/pi...
Mobile is the Technology that Cried Wolf.
                                                 (for 15 years)




            ...
“The Mother of
                                                                  all Markets.”

                          ...
The Hope for Mobile


                         What is the
                         likelihood of
                        ...
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Opera Mini Traffic Increases
Usage up 157% year-over-year




       http://www.opera.com/media/smw/
4.0
                                         Billion
                                           Mobile phone for
         ...
4 Billion in Perspective
                                                                                                 ...
2007 SMS Revenue: 100 billion




Flickr photo by Vlastula: http://www.flickr.com/photos/vlastula/450642954/
2007 SMS Revenue: 100 billion




                                                                            •Box Office
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  ...
56 million
http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2009/02/shoot-is-iphone.html#c148364123
                                         ...
Gold Rush was On
Source: http://gizmodo.com/5199933/giz-explains-all-the-smartphone-mobile-app-stores
Ringtone Apps




 http://twitter.com/justin/status/1210786170
 http://furbo.org/2008/12/09/ring-tone-apps/
  http://furbo...
Ringtone Apps

40000



30000



20000



10000



    0
        0   .99   1.99   2.99   3.99   4.99   5.99   6.99   7.99 ...
Brutally Honest iPhone App Sales:
     $32k Spent vs. $535 Revenue
Dapple




 http://www.streamingcolour.com/blog/2009/03...
Throwaway Apps




http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/
Throwaway Apps




http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/
Pinch Media’s Conclusions

•Users stop using the average applications quickly.

•Long-term audiences are generally 1% of t...
Success Determined by Top Lists & Features




        http://appcubby.com/blog/files/financial_realities.html
115,000 Apps

          &

  Findability?


http://148apps.com/10000
More Open ≠ No Gatekeeper




    96%
    Approved
   (what about that 4%?)
Some Rejected Applications
                                                                 •   Obama Trampoline
         ...
http://www.pcworld.com/article/159887-2/rejected_10_iphone_apps_that_didnt_make_apples_app_store.html
http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/30/the-hundred-million-dollar-mobile-app-question/
iPhone Only Part of World Wide Market

 Symbian     RIM         iPhone         Microsoft           Android        Others

...
iPhone Only Part of US Market
       RIM          Apple         HTC           Palm          Nokia         Samsung         ...
Symbian                     Windows Mobile

Objective C              WebOS
                                               ...
Google Mobile — App Challenges
                  • Pressure from CEO for rapid releases

                  • 10+ platforms...
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  ...
Apps are Just the Tip of the Iceberg

• Small & medium businesses will be impacted by mobile, but haven’t yet.


• Can peo...
Tips for Your Mobile Strategy
Consider Whole Mobile Strategy




What happens if they don’t have your app?
The App Store is Not Your Marketing Strategy
What is Your Recurring Revenue Plan?




      http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/
Know Your Demographics

 Blackberry has     Emerging markets



40% 80%
global enterprise     of worldwide
 mobile market....
BMW Turned $70k MMS into $45M Revenue
Plan for Mobile Context

          personal
     permanently carried
          always on
   built-in payment channel
     ...
http://mobileportland.com
Thank You for Your Time!




  http://cloudfour.com/blog • Twitter: @grigs
  Mobile Portland: http://mobileportland.com
Fl...
Backup Slides
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Sao Mobile Apps 091218164025 Phpapp01
Sao Mobile Apps 091218164025 Phpapp01
Sao Mobile Apps 091218164025 Phpapp01
Sao Mobile Apps 091218164025 Phpapp01
Sao Mobile Apps 091218164025 Phpapp01
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Sao Mobile Apps 091218164025 Phpapp01

  1. 1. Mobile Internet is Bigger than most Think it is. Jason Grigsby • SAO Dec 2009 @grigs on Twitter • jason@cloudfour.com cloudfour.com • mobileportand.com
  2. 2. Mobile is the Technology that Cried Wolf. Flickr photo by CaptPiper: http://www.flickr.com/photos/piper/197153406/
  3. 3. Mobile is the Technology that Cried Wolf. (for 15 years) Flickr photo by CaptPiper: http://www.flickr.com/photos/piper/197153406/
  4. 4. “The Mother of all Markets.” Dr. Eli Harai, San Disk CEO, 2008 John Sculley, Apple CEO, 1992 http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E0CE5D9143AF93AA25754C0A964958260
  5. 5. The Hope for Mobile What is the likelihood of exponential growth for the Internet on Mobile Devices?
  6. 6. !"#$%&'()*&+)&*',-*./0&1'2&13*".'()*&+)&*'45".*$") $67")&'8'$9"-07':1&+1';'<='4,>':1&+1'?'@-/+*&+1'4A*&+'>/-)07 3<7=4/1>13?=+571G0H1@??1A=5=B=13CB=A/1G0H1DE61G0H1@/.05,F/1I0/-0 J3-0.1#"1(+,-./-012345/16,+457 M&):: '" ,&-./"()*%"+*"% !"#$%&'()*%"+*"% 3<7=4/1>13?=+57 @/.05,F/K &" 6,+457/A1'L") 6,+457/A1!#L*% %" 2+805-38/-019::; M#&:: ,&-./"()*%"+*"% $" @??1A=5=B=13CB=A/ 6,+457/A1'L** #" M!!:: !"#$%&'()*%"+*"% !" DE6K M):: G1#H"16,+457/A1*L*% (! ($ (& () (* (!! (!$ (!& (!) (!* (+,-./-012345/16,+457 3<7=4/1>13?=+57 @??1A=5=B=13CB=A/ DE6 @/.05,F/ !"#$%&'()*&+,-+./0-$/+&12#2&3"#&242052-5$&-$6"/$&789%:;<&!$#+.2=$&,+$/+&50>0#$1&#"&?@&"35AB&C"/D23&@#235$A&E$+$2/.F&$+#0>2#$+& 26 G9:CC&3$#-""H+&F24$&+F0==$1&03&60/+#&$0DF#&I,2/#$/+&+03.$&52,3.F JKLMLNOB&@",/.$%&7">=23A&E$="/#+&P&C"/D23&@#235$A&E$+$2/.FB Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html
  7. 7. Opera Mini Traffic Increases Usage up 157% year-over-year http://www.opera.com/media/smw/
  8. 8. 4.0 Billion Mobile phone for half the planet. Flickr photo by Pingnews: http://www.flickr.com/photos/pingnews/370061022/
  9. 9. 4 Billion in Perspective 4 4B 3 2 1.2B 1.3B 1.4B 1.5B 1.2B 0.85B 0.95B 1 Cars PCs Landlines Email 0 Internet TVs Credit Cards Mobile Source: http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/01/putting_27_bill.html http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2008/01/when-there-is-a.html http://www.communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2008/12/trillion-with-a.html
  10. 10. 2007 SMS Revenue: 100 billion Flickr photo by Vlastula: http://www.flickr.com/photos/vlastula/450642954/
  11. 11. 2007 SMS Revenue: 100 billion •Box Office •DVD Sales & Rentals Combined •Music Industry •Video Games Flickr photo by Vlastula: http://www.flickr.com/photos/vlastula/450642954/
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ource: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html
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ource: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html
  14. 14. 56 million http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2009/02/shoot-is-iphone.html#c148364123 devices 115,014 http://www.newsweek.com/id/174266 apps > 2 billion http://businessweek.com/@@0M43kIYQYKPISw0A/technology/content/sep2008/tc20080930_257832.htm downloads
  15. 15. Gold Rush was On
  16. 16. Source: http://gizmodo.com/5199933/giz-explains-all-the-smartphone-mobile-app-stores
  17. 17. Ringtone Apps http://twitter.com/justin/status/1210786170 http://furbo.org/2008/12/09/ring-tone-apps/ http://furbo.org/2009/02/16/raising-prices/
  18. 18. Ringtone Apps 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 0 .99 1.99 2.99 3.99 4.99 5.99 6.99 7.99 8.99 9.99 10.99 11.99 12.99 13.99 14.99 15.99+ http://148apps.biz/app-store-metrics/?mpage=appprice
  19. 19. Brutally Honest iPhone App Sales: $32k Spent vs. $535 Revenue Dapple http://www.streamingcolour.com/blog/2009/03/09/the-numbers-post-aka-brutal-honesty/
  20. 20. Throwaway Apps http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/
  21. 21. Throwaway Apps http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/
  22. 22. Pinch Media’s Conclusions •Users stop using the average applications quickly. •Long-term audiences are generally 1% of total downloads •Paid apps retain users longer, but still steep drop off. •Difficult to make enough money from a free application based on advertising revenue http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/
  23. 23. Success Determined by Top Lists & Features http://appcubby.com/blog/files/financial_realities.html
  24. 24. 115,000 Apps & Findability? http://148apps.com/10000
  25. 25. More Open ≠ No Gatekeeper 96% Approved (what about that 4%?)
  26. 26. Some Rejected Applications • Obama Trampoline • MyShoe • I Am Poor • The South Park App • Pull My Finger • iBoobs • Slasher • Murderdome • Podcaster • Freedom Time • Google Voice • iSinglePayer "Even though my personal political leanings are Democratic, I think this app will be offensive to roughly half our customers. What's the point?" — Steve Jobs http://www.pcworld.com/article/159887-2/rejected_10_iphone_apps_that_didnt_make_apples_app_store.html
  27. 27. http://www.pcworld.com/article/159887-2/rejected_10_iphone_apps_that_didnt_make_apples_app_store.html
  28. 28. http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/30/the-hundred-million-dollar-mobile-app-question/
  29. 29. iPhone Only Part of World Wide Market Symbian RIM iPhone Microsoft Android Others 20000 19107 15000 10000 8521 7363 5000 3631 1455 0 1316 Q3 2009 Smartphone Sales — Thousands of Units http://www.canalys.com/pr/2009/r2009112.htm
  30. 30. iPhone Only Part of US Market RIM Apple HTC Palm Nokia Samsung Others 1% 4% 2% 5% 6% 52% 30% Q3 2009 Smartphone Market Share Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html
  31. 31. Symbian Windows Mobile Objective C WebOS C Java ME Dalvik Palm Visual Basic C++ .NET Compact BREW Flickr photo by André-Batista: http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=408700622&size=o
  32. 32. Google Mobile — App Challenges • Pressure from CEO for rapid releases • 10+ platforms to support • Over 100 different builds http://www.flickr.com/photos/83731031@N00/445924458/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/mcdave/142758127/ http://www.flickr.com/photos/nataliejohnson/290541732/
  33. 33. !"#$%&'&()*+)#'",*- ."/'0$*+1"/02&%*3*4",015#02&% 6"7*+&89/%2",*:;0"%*.2%*<2(*2%*6"7*+)#'",*.$2'"*=%#58>"%0,*:;0"% ?/'0"1 !"#$%&"'( !#$# )(&*+$", -(*./+012$/(&$(/ !+3#,(12$/(&$(/ !"#$%&'() !"#$%&'() !"#$%&'() !"#$%&'() !"#$%&'() *+,-. *+1-. *+/-. *++-. 0---. 234 234 234 234 5'((36. 5'((36. 5'((36. 5'((36. ;E7 A')'&?<:@B%'$#3(& 7'86"."9&: C"")<3: 2!P A?&?:C3(36?< !'.8": =>D: !"(&6"<:A?&? RS ;(&3<: 3E?F: U$366F S6'#3 =$$<3: G?H""I: R"(3F43<< !"#$%&36T'.'"( >6?8<3: G?H""I:J?$?( E%66"%)H. 5?():D?N. @7! =#?K"(L8"# A3<<: M3(83(& !"#$?B =<'N?N? E?'O% P?Q%&3( !"#$%&'())$*+&,*"-&./01+&#"&./21+&34+$5&")&6"*#7)$&011&*4)8()9+&:*$;$)7$<34+$5=>&5$+8#"?&@)#$*)$#&A())$*+&34+$5&")& 16 A$4B#C&D*$4#$5&,*"-&.//0&#"&*$+?$D#(;$&?$48&-4*8$#&D4?(#4B(E4#(")+F&G"7*D$%&64D#G$#>&6"*#7)$>&H"*94)&G#4)B$I&J$+$4*DCF Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html
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ource: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html
  35. 35. Apps are Just the Tip of the Iceberg • Small & medium businesses will be impacted by mobile, but haven’t yet. • Can people find their locations, information on mobile? • Enterprise barely begun — access to Intranet content • Mobile search = mobile search optimization • What about Google Maps? How to make sure you show up? • Mobile advertising campaigns and planning
  36. 36. Tips for Your Mobile Strategy
  37. 37. Consider Whole Mobile Strategy What happens if they don’t have your app?
  38. 38. The App Store is Not Your Marketing Strategy
  39. 39. What is Your Recurring Revenue Plan? http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/
  40. 40. Know Your Demographics Blackberry has Emerging markets 40% 80% global enterprise of worldwide mobile market. MMS traffic.
  41. 41. BMW Turned $70k MMS into $45M Revenue
  42. 42. Plan for Mobile Context personal permanently carried always on built-in payment channel creative impulse social context location aware accurate audience measurement
  43. 43. http://mobileportland.com
  44. 44. Thank You for Your Time! http://cloudfour.com/blog • Twitter: @grigs Mobile Portland: http://mobileportland.com Flickr photo by Pingnews: http://www.flickr.com/photos/pingnews/370061022/
  45. 45. Backup Slides
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ource: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html
  47. 47. !"#$%&'(")*+,-&'.'/"0*&0*'12"343*&5'6 7$8&%4'*"'9&2"5&'!"-&':;&0'"<&-'=$5& !"##$%&'"(%$) !"##$%&'"(%$)&** +),"##$%&'"(%$)- ./$) !"#$%&'%(&)*+ G//*"%F%H&7.-%F%(.2I& O-/-2 G2+)&.+%F%I&N.*"%("N > ,-)).")#%-//)&0"%-**% > :"0.1"%D-7")#% > ,-)).")#%/)&D&$"% > H&%2""+%'&)%1&2$"2$% 1&2$"2$3%45.15% -//)&0"%-**%1&2$"2$3% &''.1.-*%6+"178 NB$%-*#&% -//)&0-* -//"-)#%&2%$5"% 45.15%-//"-)#%&2% 4"*1&D"%=)+ /-)$;% &''.1.-*%6+"1789 $5"%G//%J$&)"9 6&''?+"178 1&2$"2$ > :"0"*&/")#%<"$%K>A QG2+)&.+R%$&%S>>A > :"0"*&/")#%&2*;%<"$% > :"0"*&/")#%<"$%K>A > :"0"*&/")#%<"$%P>A QD&N.*"%4"NR%&'% =>?@>A &'%)"0"2B"%C% &'%)"0"2B"%C% &'%)"0"2B"%C% )"0"2B"%C% /)&/)."$-);% #$-2+-)+.L"+%*&1-*% #$-2+-)+.L"+%4"N% #$-2+-)+.L"+%J:M%F% "20.)&2D"2$ J:M "20.)&2D"2$ 4"N%"20.)&2D"2$ > E#")#%<"$%*.D.$"+% > E#")#%<"$%D&)"% > E#")#%<"$%D&)"%-//#% > E#")#%<"$%"0");$5.2<% #"*"1$.&2%F%*&2<%4-.$ -//#3%NB$%2&$%-** C%1&2$"2$ -0-.*-N*" 0#12$%&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&3$456./$)&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&./$) 180 !"#$%&'#($&#$)*&+,-./00$1&2/)1$-3 4"5)#$67&"8&9():6#";($)&<:00:4(&"8&=-8:-:#/>&?"5)4$%&=-8:-:#/@&A")B/-&?#/-0$7&C$6$/)4(> Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html
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