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Michael Davies Keynote

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Michael Davies of Endeavour Partners discusses the five forces impacting the next wave of mobile

Michael Davies of Endeavour Partners discusses the five forces impacting the next wave of mobile

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  • 1. MassTLC Mobile Summit The future is already here… Michael A M Davies Microsoft NERD Center, Cambridge, MA July 22, 2014
  • 2. Mobile Summit Keynote July 22, 20141 …it’s just not evenly distributed. Yet.
  • 3. Mobile Summit Keynote Endeavour Partners works with leaders in technology to anticipate the future, navigate through change, and to innovate better and more quickly July 22, 20142 •  Predict technology innovations •  Identify/assess demand opportunities •  Forecast new markets •  Understand how business ecosystems will emerge/evolve •  Make connections amongst these developments •  Anticipate the dynamics and potential scenarios •  We have a unique approach and way of thinking together •  We combine a core team, all of whom have specialist expertise and relevant experience •  With a broad and diverse network of relationships and partnerships throughout the ecosystem, worldwide What we do: Our services Who we work for: Our clients Why we are different •  Top tier device vendors, service providers, network operators and infrastructure vendors who are at the forefront of the mobile/digital ecosystem in software/computing/ semiconductors, CE, content and e/m-commerce •  Businesses impacted by technology: retail/FMCG, transportation, financial services •  Investors in these business •  Governments and policy makers (DoJ and DG Comp) •  Determine implications of key scenarios •  Identify/evaluate strategic options •  Make smart, timely decisions •  Identify who to target, what to offer, when, and which technology to pursue •  Determine who to partner with •  Define how to create and capture value •  Discover how to delight customers in new ways •  Develop breakthrough creative ideas •  Leverage partnerships and catalyze business ecosystems •  Instill agile approaches and enhance productivity
  • 4. Mobile Summit Keynote Our perspective – forward-looking, opinionated – and iconoclastic July 22, 20143 (There may be some things I cannot say, some things I cannot share, or questions I cannot answer because of legal constraints or client confidentiality) This is a forward- looking, iconoclastic, and even heretical viewpoint We are passionate about it and continue to invest We have an opinion and we are unafraid to challenge conventional wisdom We have a long track record of seeing things others miss, recognizing shifts earlier and spotting key turning points and transitions In particular we are writing a book now because: We now recognize a clear pattern of innovation principles that drive success Innovation is important; getting it right really matters We are at an inflection point
  • 5. Mobile Summit Keynote We face a perfect storm of creative destruction July 22, 20144 Smartphone penetration is 65% in the United States and >50% in many developed countries 20% 40% 60% 80% 25% CAGR LTE coverage now extends to 90%+ of Americans. Wi-Fi is everywhere Billions of people use the cloud Cloud computing Internet of things Big data / machine learning Smartphones What happens when these five forces converge? Smartphones Pervasive connectivity Cloud computing Widespread wireless broadband
  • 6. Mobile Summit Keynote It’s a Nor’easter in MA: The eye of the storm July 22, 20145 High tablet and smartphone penetration in MA The 4 major networks have almost completed their MA LTE rollouts Many cloud, big data, and machine learning companies in MA A demographic shift is ongoing Digital Natives (many of whom are students) are smartphone-centric, PC agnostic, relaxed about security, grew up in a digital environment and are comfortable and familiar with all things digital (your kids) In Boston/Cambridge: 16,000 people/ square mile In Silicon Valley: 35 universities/ 100 square miles 4,000 people/ square mile 1.5 universities/ 100 square miles vs. Smartphones Pervasive connectivity Cloud computing
  • 7. Mobile Summit Keynote July 22, 20146 What does this convergence mean? Customers are empowered Customers have instant access to information anywhere, anytime, about anything (including sensing and controlling) The nature of work is changing Who is affected? Transportation Retail Education Healthcare Then: …and the customer-to- customer interaction has changed How does work get done? With a modern & consistent user experience with a seamless transition across devices Utilizing automation & machine learning Innovation is accelerating and becoming more interactive
  • 8. Mobile Summit Keynote Consumers are becoming wizards… July 22, 20147 …with easy access to: Anytime, anywhere, instantly. Data Information Knowledge Wisdom
  • 9. Mobile Summit Keynote …and our products must keep pace July 22, 20148
  • 10. Mobile Summit Keynote July 22, 20149 What are examples of this change? Making travel simpler, easier and more reliable Providing simple, easily adoptable payment methods Automating our homes Easily and quickly find a location to charge your electric vehicle Amazon’s app/fire phone makes impulse buying easy… especially when at a competitors store Recording our health and wellness
  • 11. Mobile Summit Keynote Uber needed July 22, 201410 Uber started by utilizing waste in the transportation system (empty cars) It is now creating new value as a supplement to mass transit And as an alternative to a rental car And as an alternative to car ownership Source: Above the Crowd by Bill Gurley, http://abovethecrowd.com/2014/07/11/how-to-miss-by-a-mile-an-alternative-look-at-ubers-potential-market-size/ fast, widespread connectivity, and big data to flourish smartphones with location services, $100B market ...which grows the TAM +$27B in the US alone $1.3T TAM
  • 12. Mobile Summit Keynote July 22, 201411 What do you do next as a business? In the beginning… A few years ago… Today, and in the future… No one worried about their mobile, digital, cloud, or big data strategies Mobile, digital, cloud and big data were side projects, and not core to most companies strategies Mobile, digital, cloud and big data must be pervasive in your companies strategy Strategy Strategy •  Good/Easy/Fast vs. Bad/Hard/Slow •  Business who are slow to adopt and innovate will perish •  Instant access to information empowers customers and accelerates both the gain of the Good/Easy/Fast and the decline of the Bad/Hard/Slow
  • 13. Mobile Summit Keynote The mobile ecosystem July 22, 201412 Infrastructure Networks OS Devices High-end devices Low-end devices Infrastructure providers will be fine Any OS’s besides iOS and Android will struggle to gain market share Players “stuck in the middle” will struggle as they need either high volume or high margin Either go simple/ inexpensive or provide added services
  • 14. Mobile Summit Keynote It was the best of times, it was the worst of times… July 22, 201413 Discovery is too hard There is no standalone app ecosystem There are lots of great tools Winners are able to design across all platforms using big data, machine learning and the cloud Consumers expect a great user experience Demand will remain high and accelerate The bad news The good news
  • 15. Mobile Summit Keynote What does this mean for different developer segments? July 22, 201414 Hexagons show % of total developer population in Q3 2014 Source: State of the Developer Nation Q3 2014, Vision Mobile
  • 16. Strategic Insights for Global Technology Leaders Cambridge, MA – London, UK Q & A