Knowing BRICs through PEOPLE

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Knowing BRICs through PEOPLE

  1. 1. Learing “People” and learning BRICs market July / 2005 Border ZeroCopyright ©2005-. Border Zero All rights reserved.
  2. 2. In beginning BRICs (Brazil (B), Russia (R), India (I), China (C)) has been observed as * there economic presence will expands. According to report from Goldman Sachs announces, in the future in 40 years, the economic potential of BRICs is estimated to become larger than total of G6 (Japan, America, England, France, Germany and Italy). The Japanese enterprise has advanced to BRICs countries such as China successively as the European-American enterprises. The purpose of this report is to focus on “the person” which plays important factor of economy and to grasp the features of each BRICs countries. The investigation is based on original data such as United Nations.* Goldman Sachs “DreamingWith BRICs: The Path to 2050” 2003Copyright ©2005-. Border Zero All rights reserved. -1-
  3. 3. Facts of Japan and BRICs(1) Japan Brazil(B) Russia India(I) China(C) ( R) Name Japan Federative Russian India Peoples Republic of Federation Republic of Brazil China Capital Tokyo Brasilia Moscow Delhi Beijin Land size 377,880 8,514,047 17,075,400 3,287,263 9,596,961 (1,000k㎡) Population 128,084 186,405 143,201 1,103,371 1,315,844 (1,000) Language Japanese Portuguese Russian, each Hindi, English, Chinese race 17Official languages recognition languages Race(%) Japanese, White(54%), Russian(82%) Aryo(72%), Han(91%) Ainu, Korean Blend(40%), Dravidian Chinese Black(5%), (25%) Asia(1%), Original Religion(%) Buddhism, Catholic Russian Hindi(83%), Buddhism, Shinto, (90%) (Orthodox) Muslim(11%)、 Taoism, Christian Church 、 Christian(3%) Muslim, Muslim, Lamaism, Buddhism ChristianCopyright ©2005-. Border Zero All rights reserved. -2-
  4. 4. Facts of Japan and BRICs(2) Japan Brazil(B) Russia India(I) China(C) ( R) GDP 4,302,557 492,338 432,849 595,108 1,412,323 (US$1mil, nominal, Y2003) GDP per 1 33,727 2,759 3,022 559 1,083 person(US$, nominal, Y2003) Import* 383,085 50,665 52,499 71,240 412,052 Export* 471,999 73,084 126,048 57,081 437,899 Import from - 333,335 490,216 252,133 8,731,139 BRICs to Japan* Export from - 217,338 203,995 276,340 6,635,482 Japan to BRICs* * as(US$1mil, Y2003)Copyright ©2005-. Border Zero All rights reserved. -3-
  5. 5. Comparison of Japan with BRICs:HDI The Indian HDI(Human Development Index)shows lowest among samples and has been less than worldwide average. Russia has been located highest in BRICs. The Japanese HDI shows approximately 0.1 point higher than BRICs highest Russia. HDI of Japan and index(rank) BRICs 1 0.938 (9)0.9 0.795 (57)0.8 0.775 (72) 0.745 (94)0.7 Worldwide average(0.729) 0.595 (127)0.60.50.40.30.20.1 0 Japan Brasil(B) Russia(R) India(I) China(C)Source:Website of United Nations Development Programme(http://hdr.undp.org/statistics/data/indic/indic_8_1_1.html)Copyright ©2005-. Border Zero All rights reserved. -4-
  6. 6. Population Comparison:Growth Population of China and India shows much larger than other BRICs countries, Russia and Brazil. Population in India is estimated to pull out China before 2030 and will record world’s largest population. We can find that the positive advance of European-American enterprises to India is executed by such increase in population. 1,000people Population growth in Japan and BRICs1,800,0001,600,000 【Other Features】1,400,000 •Russia is estimated decriease its1,200,000 population as Japan.1,000,000 •Big population fluctuation will not 800,000 be seen in Brazil, China and Russia 600,000 as India. 400,000 200,000 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Japan Brazil(B) Russia(R) India(I) China(C)Source:United Nations “World Population Prospect 2004” (http://esa.un.org/unpp)Copyright ©2005-. Border Zero All rights reserved. -5-
  7. 7. Population Comparison:Growth rate The population growth rate in Russia has already changes to minus, also in China will change to minus by 2030(see red circle below), population growth rate in Japan and BRICs is to be blunts. Only Brazil and India continue increasing its population growth by 2050 among BRICs countries. Population growth rate in Japan and BRICs % 2 【Other Features】 1.5 •Population gorwth of Japan will turn 1 minus by 2010 0.5 0 2005- 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035- 2040- 2045- 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050-0.5 -1 Japan Brazil(B) Russia(R) India(I) China(C)Source:United Nations “World Population Prospect 2004” (http://esa.un.org/unpp)Copyright ©2005-. Border Zero All rights reserved. -6-
  8. 8. Population Comparison:Age Average age of India has been lowest among Japan and BRICs countries. Many enterprises have advanced to India by expecting young labor force. As for Japan the average age exceeding 50 years old, advancing age has been prominent age Average age of Japan and BRICs6050 【Other Features】 •Average age of Japan will reach its40 peak at 2035 (approximately 53 years old) and will change with30 stability.20 •Average age of China and Russia will change at peak, approximately10 45 years old. 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Japan Brazil(B) Russia(R) India(I) China(C)Source:United Nations “World Population Prospect 2004” (http://esa.un.org/unpp)Copyright ©2005-. Border Zero All rights reserved. -7-
  9. 9. Population Comparison:U15(1) In each country, population under 15 year old is expected to decrease tendency. Population decrease under 15 years old has been prominent in China and India where increase of population is expected. It is expected that approximately 50,000,000 people decrease between 2005 and 2050. 1,000people Change of population under 15 year old in Japan and BRICs400,000350,000 【Other Features】300,000 •Population in Japan under 15 year250,000 old will change with stability to 2050.200,000 •The wave of population, stability150,000 and decrease, will occur in both100,000 China and Brazil. 50,000 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Japan Brazil(B) Russia(R) India(I) China(C)Source:United Nations “World Population Prospect 2004” (http://esa.un.org/unpp)Copyright ©2005-. Border Zero All rights reserved. -8-
  10. 10. Population Comparison:U15(2) By 2050 ratio of population under 15 year old between Japan and BRICs countries focuses between 15-20%. Ranking of population ratio under 15 years old between Japan or BRICs countries almost does not fluctuate. Change of ratio of population under 15 year old in Japan and BRICs %3530 【Other Features】25 •Japan will indicates lowest ratio of population under 15 year old20 among Japan and BRICs countries15 by 2050.10 •Ratio under 15 years old which in 2005 have 20% or less difference 5 between the highest India and lowest Japan reduces to only 5% or 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 less in 2050. Japan Brazil(B) Russia(R) India(I) China(C)Source:United Nations “World Population Prospect 2004” (http://esa.un.org/unpp)Copyright ©2005-. Border Zero All rights reserved. -9-
  11. 11. Population Comparison:15-59(1) The population 15-59 year old in India will continue increasing (approximately 300 million peple will increase between 2005 and 2050) and is possible to reversed with China around 2025(see red circle below). In China, 1.5 hundred million people will decrease by 2050. 1,000people Change of population between 15 and 59 in Japan and BRICs1,200,0001,000,000 【Other Features】 •Population 15-59 year old in Japan 800,000 will decrease slightly. 600,000 •Population 15-59 year old in Brazil will increase as well as India. 400,000 200,000 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Japan Brazil(B) Russia(R) India(I) China(C)Source:United Nations “World Population Prospect 2004” (http://esa.un.org/unpp)Copyright ©2005-. Border Zero All rights reserved. - 10 -
  12. 12. Population Comparison:15-59(2) Except fo India, ratio of population 15-59 year old is possibly to stabilizes or decreases without increasing. The ratio of population 15-59 year old in India will increase slightly. % Change of ratio of population 15-59 year old in Japan and BRICs8070 【Other Features】60 •Ratio of population 15-59 year old50 in Japan will drop 15%.40 •As for China whose ratio is highest30 in 2005 will drop approximately 15% to 2050, the possibility that it20 records the lowness which it comes10 after Russia in BRICs. 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Japan Brazil(B) Russia(R) India(I) China(C)Source:United Nations “World Population Prospect 2004” (http://esa.un.org/unpp)Copyright ©2005-. Border Zero All rights reserved. - 11 -
  13. 13. Population Comparison:over60(1) The population of 60 years old or more in China and India will increase rapidly about 2.5 hundred million people each by 2050. The population of the same generation in other countries will increase as well.1,000 persons Change of population over 60 in Japan and BRICs500,000450,000 【Other Features】400,000350,000 •Population of 60 years old or more300,000 in Japan will its peak in 2040.250,000 •Growth rate of population of 60200,000 year old or more in Brazil150,000 (approximately 3.8 times) is100,000 highest along with India. 50,000 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Japan Brazil(B) Russia(R) India(I) China(C)Source:United Nations “World Population Prospect 2004” (http://esa.un.org/unpp)Copyright ©2005-. Border Zero All rights reserved. - 12 -
  14. 14. Population Comparison:over60(2) The population ratio of 60 years old or more in Japan is highest among Japan and BRICs countries, will rise about 15% by 2050 (more than 40%). BRICs countries other than Japan are the possibility that ratio of population of 60 year old or more rises 10% or more. % Change of population ratio of over 60 in Japan and BRICs4540 【Other Features】35 •As for Japan, the population ratio of30 60 years old or more is 10% or25 more higher than BRICs countries20 from 2005 to 2050.15 •As for China advancing age10 develops most between 2005 and 5 2050 among Japan and BRICs countries. 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Japan Brazil(B) Russia(R) India(I) China(C)Source:United Nations “World Population Prospect 2004” (http://esa.un.org/unpp)Copyright ©2005-. Border Zero All rights reserved. - 13 -
  15. 15. Comapies in Japan and BRICs:from Japan The country to which most Japanese companies in BRICs countries have advanced and which the number of affiliated companies runs is China. Number of advance company from Japan to India where attracts attention from the West by offshore development is less than that of Brasil, ranked no.3 in BRICs. Number of Number of advance companies from Japan to companies BRICs5,000 4,938 4,500 【Other Features】 4,040 4,000 •Number of companies advance to 3,500 Russia locates next to Japanis the 3,000 least among BRICs. 2,500 2,000 1,500 269 1,000 544 50 192 500 97 263 0 Number of affiliated company Brasil(B) Number of advance company Russia(R) India(I) China(C)Source:Toyokeizai Kaigai shinshuty kigyou souran 2005Copyright ©2005-. Border Zero All rights reserved. - 14 -
  16. 16. Comapies in Japan and BRICs:to Japan There are most advance companies from China and they reach by 4 times India of the 2nd place. As compared with the number of advance companies from Japan, there are few advance companies to Japan also in which country.Number of Advance companies from BRICs countriescompanies80 7170 【Other Features】60 •The advance from Brazil and Russia is not active (both single figure),50 and there is large gap with the40 number which Japanese companies30 have advancedt.20 1310 3 1 0 Brasil(B) Russia(R) India(I) China(C) *”Advance company” means the company which has The capital of 50 million yen or more and a foreign funding ratio are 49% or more.Source:Toyokeizai Gaishikei Kigyou Souran 2005Copyright ©2005-. Border Zero All rights reserved. - 15 -
  17. 17. Human exchange:Residents There are more foreign residents in Japan than the number of Japanese resident abroad. There are most persons in Japan from China, and the number amounts to about 500,000 people. Number of resident in/from BRICs person500,000 450,000 462,396 【Other Features】 400,000 •Brazil and Japan seems to have 350,000 247,400 active human exchanges as 300,000 existence because of Japanese 250,000 200,000 descent. 150,000 70,782 100,000 6,734 14,234 77,184 50,000 1,702 1,939 Number of foreign resident in 0 Japan Brasil(B) Number of Japanese resident Russia(R) abroad India(I) China(C)Source::MOFA Kaigai Zairyuu Houjinsuu Toukei Chousa 2004 Foundation NYUKAN associates Zairyuu Gaikokujin Toukei 2004Copyright ©2005-. Border Zero All rights reserved. - 16 -
  18. 18. Human exchange:Visitors Human exchanges with China are the most active and the visit-to-China person from Japan reaches in about 2.2 million people per year. With BRICs countries other than China, only about 100,000 people exchange. Visitors from Japan/BRICs person 2,500,000 2,254,800 【Other Features】 2,000,000 •People from BRICs countries other than China visit less than 100,000. 1,500,000 •Only Brasil shows more visitors to 1,000,000 Japan than from Japan. 703,758 500,000 79,692 43,738 45,450 39,753 73,734 77,996 0 Visitors from BRICs Brasil(B) Russia(R) Visitors from Japan India(I) China(C)Source:JNTO Visitor Arrivals and Japanese Overseas Travelers 2004Copyright ©2005-. Border Zero All rights reserved. - 17 -
  19. 19. Japanese language education in BRICs There are most Japanese students (about 400 thousand) and teachers (about 10 thousand) in China in BRICs. In Brasil where number of Japanese students is the second most among BRICs doesn’t reach 20 thousand students. Japanese language education in BRICs can never say that it is active. Japanese students and teachers in BRICs people 400,000 387,924 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 451 451 50,000 19,744 256 9,644 6,031 5,446 The number of Japanese 0 teachers Brasil(B) The number of Japanese Russia(R) students India(I) China(C)Source:Japan Foundation Survey Report on Japanese-Language Education Abroad 2003: Present Condition of Overseas Japanese-Language Education-SummaryCopyright ©2005-. Border Zero All rights reserved. - 18 -
  20. 20. Feartures of BRICs countries Brasil(B) Brasil(B) •There is much youth population and potential market growth possibility can be expected very much. •Subsequently to China, there are many Japanese students. •A possibility that about 270,000 people from Brazil in Japan can utilize for strengthening ties with Japan and Brazil is high. Russia(R) Russia(R) •Only population decreases in BRICs and charm is missing from a viewpoint of digging up of a new consumer. •HDI is the highest in BRICs. India(I) India(I) •Will be greatest population in 2025 by exceeding China. •The average age is the lowest in BRICs and the labor force is very abundant over the future. •The subject which should be improved such as HDI is less than a world average. China(C) China(C) •Size of population and number of people speak Japanese are attractive for Japan. •Since many Japanese companies have advanced, it is hard to attain differentiation with the competition other company.Copyright ©2005-. Border Zero All rights reserved. - 19 -
  21. 21. Contact #1034 Chiyoda Platform Square 3-21 Kandanishikichou, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-0054 Japan TEL/FAX: +81-3-3777-5805 email:post@borderzero.com writer: Masaya FukumotoCopyright ©2005-. Border Zero All rights reserved. - 20 -

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