Snack and Dessert Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Market
 

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Snack and Dessert Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Market Document Transcript

  • 1. Get more info on this report!Snack and Dessert Trends in the U.S. Foodservice MarketOctober 1, 2010Snacking trends intersect with some of the foodservice industry’s most importantchallenges, which is why cracking the snacking code has become a necessity. But whilemuch attention has been made of consumer snacking trends, and while foodserviceoperators now roll out new snackable items almost daily, Packaged Facts estimates thatusage of “snacks” at restaurants had held relatively stable during 2005-09, and weforecast similar results for 2010 and 2011.But the devil is in the details. With their low price points, high portability, and upsellingpotential, snacking strategies can boost mid-morning and mid-afternoon sales; driveguest traffic; and leverage on-site upselling to higher-priced items or bundled meals.The bottom line is that snacking strategies can not only help operators addressincremental “true snacking” occasions, but they can also use snackable items as carrotsto entice customers to purchase more food and beverages—and give consumers highlyportable food options in the bargain.Snack and Dessert Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Market provides needed insightinto the consumer snacking decision-making process; snacking menu pricing andproduct trends; and foodservice snacking sales (by restaurant segment and bydemographic), helping industry participants position themselves accordingly.With proprietary consumer research laying the foundation, the report analysesconsumer attitudes and behaviors influencing foodservice snacking behavior. Themesaddressed include where and how snacks are eaten, how the snacking purchasedecision relates to consumer activity and routine, and consumer hunger and healthpurchase motivations. The report also assesses “consumer dessert influencers,” factorsthat play into the decision to order restaurant dessert during the dinner hour. Themesaddressed include dessert formats and purchase incentives; and desserts asconditional options which assesses the influence of cost, satiation and calorieconsiderations on the purchase decision). As part of this analysis, we detail snackingusage according to restaurant type and to prepared foods use at convenience storesand grocery stores.We also analyze the snacking patterns and restaurant preferences of five Snacking
  • 2. Lifestyle groups: Carefree Snackers; Fast Food Slighting Hurried Healthy Snackers;Hurried Healthy Snackers; Calorie-Conscious Small Mealers; and Healthy Calorie-Conscious Snackers. With this analysis, restaurants can tailor their incentives to fit thepurchasing patterns of these important groups.Snack and Dessert Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Market also analyzes leadingsnack-centric restaurant brands, including menu strategies and new menu itemintroductions; core users; snacking tendencies; food, diet and health attitudes; andtrended sales metrics.The report also includes “Share of stomach” snack and nonalcoholic beverage salesanalysis, which includes 5-year sales trends for the fast food/quick-service restaurantand full-service restaurant segments, with forecasts for 2010 and 2011; guest trafficfrequency analysis of leading snack-centric restaurant brands, giving a directionalperspective on current sales trends; and trended snack and nonalcoholic beveragesales analysis by demographic, including 4-year sales historical sales trends andspending according to key demographics, such as age, income, region, andrace/ethnicity.Table of ContentsChapter 1: Executive SummaryScope and Methodology ScopeMethodology Consumer survey methodology Market size and forecast Consumer restaurant expenditure trending TerminologyMacroeconomic Analysis Fast FactsRestaurant Usage & Outlook Tracker Fast FactsShare of Stomach: Sales Analysis Fast factsSnacking Trends, Innovations & StrategiesSnacking Menu Item AnalysisSnacking Behavioral Analysis Fast factsSnacking Lifestyle Groups Fast factsRestaurant Dessert Influencers
  • 3. Fast factsSnacking on the Menu: Restaurant Brand AnalysisStarbucksDunkin’ DonutsJamba JuiceChapter 2: Macroeconomic AnalysisRestaurant sales rally fizzles; long slog aheadRestaurant industry sales dip in June; future weakness likelySpending upturn hinges on consumers with strong balance sheets Upturn to benefit casual restaurants at expense of family and fast food/QSR players Non-discretionary spending a recession rule But affluent may help drive growth in discretionary spendPackaged Facts’ Consumer Restaurant Tracker: gloomy near-term outlookIn-home breakfast and dinner trend remains significantBagging lunch, breakfast and snacks taking a bite out of restaurant sales?Graph 2-1: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior: A Top Line View Looking ahead: saving & grocery spending trumps limited-service and full-service restaurant spendGraph 2-2: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Next 3 Months: A Top Line View February to June food services & drinking places monthly sales sequentially improve Full-service restaurants get shot in the arm, shift momentum away from groceryGraph 2-3: Monthly Sales, 12-Month % Change, Grocery Stores & Food Services &Drinking Places, Full-Service Restaurants and Limited-Service Eating Places, 2009-2010 But month-to-month spending trends suggest restaurant and food retail pullbackGraph 2-4: Monthly Sales, Month-to-Month % Change, Grocery Stores & Food Services& Drinking Places, Full-Service Restaurants and Limited-Service Eating Places, 2009-2010Restaurant Performance Index contracts for second straight monthGraph 2-5: Restaurant Performance Index, Monthly Metrics, 2006-2010Macroeconomic factors shaping restaurant salesConsumer confidence? No, not really Present Situation Index decreases as perceptions of job prospects continue to darken Expectations Index weighed down by dimmer outlook on job prospectsUnemploymentrate stagnates Some perspective:Graph 2-6: UnemploymentRate and Consumer Confidence: 2007-2010By demographic, unemployment rates settle into troughs Disparity in unemployment rates by education level Young adults, minorities and men also find harder goingGraph 2-7: Unemployment Rate, Selected Demographics, 2007-2010Graph 2-8: Unemployment Rate, by Race/Ethnicity, 2007-2010How can increasing personal savings and reducing the debt burden be bad?
  • 4. Households continue to repair their balance sheetsGraph 2-9: Consumer Debt Burden, 2000-2010Graph 2-10: Savings Rate & Debt Service Ratio & Financial Obligations Ratio, 2007-2010Unemployment and GPD forecast: expect recovery to take several years Slow employment rebound to coincide with a slowrebound in consumer spendingGraph 2-11: Unemployment and GDP Forecast, 2010-12Stock & housing declines deflate household wealth; rebound to record 2006 levels along way off Q1 2009 to Q1 2010 sees uptick in household wealth, but still $10 trillion off 2006 highGraph 2-12: Household Net Worth, 2005-10 Case-Shiller and FOMC housing pessimism Q2 2010 summary equities analysisGraph 2-13: Wealth Effect: Wilshire 5000 and Case Shiller Composite-20 Index: 2007-2010Food at home maintains pricing edgeGraph 2-14: CPI: Food at Home vs. Food Away from Home, 2005-2010Graph 2-15: CPI: Food at Home vs. Food Away from Home, 2005-2010Food inflation forecast remains muted CPI forecast for food at home and food away from homeCommodities pricing analysis Intermediate foods and feeds index dips during Q1 2010 Prepared animal feed prices lead decline Dairy product index falls after Q4 2009 hike Finished consumer foods rise Crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs rise tapers from Q4 2009 popChapter 3: Restaurant Usage & Outlook TrackerNote on reading chartsPackaged Facts’ Consumer Restaurant Tracker: At-home food spend trumps out-of-home spend February 2010 trend continues in June 2010Food retail snacks to benefit?Graph 3-1: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior: A Top Line ViewLooking ahead: Consumers more likely to pack a lunch, breakfast or snack Pack a snack?Graph 3-2: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Next 3 Months: A Top Line ViewPlanned spending on snacking stronghold sends mixed signalsGraph 3-3: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior: Fast Food RestaurantSpendingIntention to save money remains highGraph 3-4: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior: Saving MoneyRestaurant usage and usage frequencyOverview February 2010 to June 2010 mean use comparisonGraph 3-5: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010
  • 5. Graph 3-6: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010Males drive mean useTable 3-1: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, byGenderGraph 3-7: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, by Gender, 201018-34s continue to drive guest countsTable 3-2: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by Age 18-34s exhibit higher usage Key smoothie shop and street stand usersGraph 3-8: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by AgeHH income: fast food enjoys egalitarian statusTable 3-3: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010,by HH IncomeGraph 3-9: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by HH IncomeEmployment status: having a job pays the bills but also fits restaurant lifestyleTable 3-4: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010,by Employment Status Full-time workers and students also compare favorably regarding overall usageGraph 3-10: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010,by Employment Status Restaurant snacking useTechnically speaking, restaurant snacking visits are a drop in the bucket But a very important driver for incremental sales and upsellingGraph 3-11: Day Part Usage on Last Visit, 2010Restaurant snacking use in past month Note on reading charts in this sectionConvenience stores and snacking a natural fitGraph 3-12: Restaurant Snacking Usage in Last Month, Type of Restaurant, 2010Gender snacking differences hinge on impulse, efficiency and affordabilityGraph 3-13: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for a Snack, 2010, by Gender HH incomeGraph 3-14: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for a Snack, 2010, by HH Income Employment status a key differentiatorGraph 3-15: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for a Snack, 2010, by Employment StatusChapter 4: Share of Stomach: Snacking Sales AnalysisMarket size and overviewSnacking usage trends stable over timeTable 4-1: Restaurant Snacking Usage,by Restaurant Type, 2005-1018-24s hop on snacking trendTable 4-2: Restaurant Snacking Usage,18-24s, by Restaurant Type, 2005-10 Near-term challenges Long-term outlookGraph 4-1: Snack and non-alcoholic beverage sales:limited-service and full-service restaurants, 2005-2011Graph 4-2: Snack and non-alcoholic beverage sales, % change:limited-service and full-service restaurants, 2006-2011
  • 6. Snacks still take a small bite out of food salesGraph 4-3: Food at Home versus Food Away from Home Daypart SpendFast food owns the restaurant snacking spaceGraph 4-4: Snack & Beverage Expenditures: Fast Food, Full-Service,Vending Machines & CafeteriasRestaurants sales trends by daypartConsumer food expenditure trends suggest migration to food at home spendTable 4-3: Consumer Food Expenditures, 2005-08Snack & beverage share of spend remains steadyTable 4-4: Meals Away From Home Expenditures,by Daypart, 2005-08Consistent ratio of snack expenditures to food expense and restaurant expenseTable 4-5: Snack & Beverage Expenditures: Selected Metrics &Fast Food, Full-Service,Vending Machines Cafeteria Spend, 2005-08Vending machines lose snacking tractionGraph 4-5: Snack & Beverage Expenditures: Fast Food, Full-Service,Vending Machines & Cafeterias, 2005-08Western region snack spend champs; South lagsTable 4-6: Snack & Beverage Expenditures: Selected Metrics &Fast Food, Full-Service,Vending Machines and Cafeteria Spend, by RegionYouth drives snacking spendTable 4-7: Snack & Beverage Expenditures: Selected Metrics &Fast Food, Full-Service,Vending Machines and Cafeteria Spend, by AgeSnacks linked to incomeBut fast food share shiftsTable 4-8: Snack & Beverage Expenditures: Selected Metrics &Fast Food, Full-Service,Vending Machines and Cafeteria Spend, by IncomeRace/ethnicity reveals significant differences in snack spendTable 4-9: Snack & Beverage Expenditures: Selected Metrics &Fast Food, Full-Service,Vending Machines and Cafeteria Spend, by Race/EthnicitySnack & Nonalcoholic Beverage Guest Traffic AnalysisFrequency counts: definition Starbucks loses high-frequency guests & guest share; Dunkin’ gains; Jamba mixedTable 4-10: Guest Traffic: Limited-Service Restaurants, Selected Snacking Players,2008-10Chapter 5: Snacking Trends, Innovations & StrategiesLet’s Snack! Three or more snacks a day? Snack timing: morning and afternoon routine Restaurants respond with snackable options What restaurants are doing What retail is doingMini size that! Movement driven by multiple factors What restaurants are doing What retail is doing
  • 7. Snacking & affordability Retail snacks as meal substitutesHealthy indulgence Snacks as culprits Health versus taste Salty snacks Gender issues What restaurants are doing What retail is doingOn-the-go portability and convenience What restaurants are doingImpulse What restaurants are doingCulinary exploration What restaurants are doing What Retail Is DoingComfort foods What restaurants are doingPrivate label opportunitiesSnacking and sociability What Retail Is DoingSustainability What Retail Is DoingAppendix: sourcesChapter 6: Snacking Menu Item AnalysisIntroductionGet them through the doorWhy snacking? Low cost, portability, driving traffic and building guest checksOperators report growth by snacking daypartQSR and FSR snackable items are different animalsThe rise of the snackwichGraph 6-1: Snackwich Timeline, 2005-10Burger, chicken and sub variationsWhen a snack is not a snack: bundling snacks to rope in additional salesHappy Hour and late-nightSmall platesChapter 7: Snacking Behavioral AnalysisNote on reading chartsSnacking behavioral analysisOverviewGraph 7-1: Restaurant Snacking Influencers, 2010 Gender differences: health, quick consumption and time of dayTable 7-1: Restaurant Snacking Influencers, by Gender, 2010 AgeTable 7-2: Restaurant Snacking Influencers, by Age, 2010
  • 8. HH incomeTable 7-3: Restaurant Snacking Influencers, by Age, 2010 Employment statusTable 7-4: Restaurant Snacking Influencers, by Employment Status, 2010 Urban, Suburban, or Rural locationTable 7-5: Restaurant Snacking Influencers, Urban, Suburban or Rural, 2010Chapter 8: Snacking Lifestyle GroupsTrended snacking & health behaviors and attitudes: 2007-10Table 8-1: Trended Snacking & Health Behaviors and Attitudes, 2007-10Meet the Snacking Lifestyle GroupsDemographic analysisTable 8-2: Snacking Lifestyle Groups, Selected Demographics, 2010Restaurant preferencesCarefree SnackersCalorie-Conscious Small MealersHealthy Calorie-Conscious SnackersHurried Healthy SnackersFast Food Slighting Hurried Healthy SnackersTable 8-3: Snacking Lifestyle Groups, Restaurant Use, By Type, 2010Chapter 9: Restaurant Dessert InfluencersRestaurant dessert influencersGraph 9-1: Restaurant Dessert Influencers, Dinner, 2010 GenderTable 9-1: Restaurant Dessert Influencers, by Gender, 2010 AgeTable 9-2: Restaurant Dessert Influencers, by Age, 2010 HH incomeTable 9-3: Restaurant Dessert Influencers, by HH Income, 2010 Employment status9-4: Restaurant Dessert Influencers, by Employment Status, 2010 Urban, suburban, or rural locationTable 9-5: Restaurant Dessert Influencers,Urban, Suburban or Rural, 2010Chapter 10: Snacking on the Menu: Restaurant Brand AnalysisSnacking Lifestyles: Brand Competitive AnalysisMeet the psychographic groupsSnacker brand analysisTable 10-1: Snacking Lifestyle Groups: Starbucks, Dunkin’ Donutsand Jamba JuiceStarbucks CorporationRevenue mix shows food trending upwardTable 9-2: Starbucks, Revenue Mix by Product Type, 2009 Recession response Menu pricing strategies and customer incentives My Starbucks Rewards gains traction
  • 9. iPhone apps and free wi-fi; what could be next? Customizable Frappuccino to assuage calorie critics? Expanding with VIA, Seattle’s Best and new retail formatsStarbucks users, Starbucks snackers?Table 10-3: Starbucks Users: Restaurant Usage by Daypart and Restaurant TypeStarbucks core usersTable 10-4: Starbucks Users: Selected DemographicsStarbucks guests: food adventurousness and fast food practicalityTable 10-5: Starbucks Users: Food, Health and Diet AttitudesA same-store sales turnaround worthy of celebrationTable 10-6: Starbucks, Selected Metrics, 2007-09Q2 2010 brings good newsTable 10-7: Starbucks, Selected Quarterly Metrics, 2009 and 2010Dunkin’ Donuts2009-10 menu strategy Expanding breakfast value menu in selected marketsTable 10-8: Dunkin’ Donuts “Breakfast not BROKEfast” Dollar Breakfast Menu Sandwiches and wraps in the testing phaseTable 10-9: Dunkin’ Donuts Test Market New ItemsRolling through summer with new and limited-time offers Bagel Twists, Wake-Up Wrap aimed squarely at snackersTable 10-10: Dunkin’ Donuts Spring & Summer 2010 New and Limited-Time OffersDunkin’ Donuts: egalitarian while attracting the affluentTable 10-11: Dunkin’ DonutsUsers: Selected DemographicsPositive fast food attitudesTable 10-12: Dunkin’ Donuts Users: Food, Health and Diet AttitudesDunkin’ Donuts: snacker central?Table 10-13: Dunkin’ Donuts Users: Restaurant Usage by Daypart and Restaurant TypeSales per store dipTable 10-14: Dunkin’s Donuts, Selected Metrics, 2007-09Jamba Juice CompanyMenu overview The BLEND PlanMenu innovation Away from smoothies And expanding smoothies, too Feel Good Special, anyone?Consumer product expansionJamba Juice user restaurant snacking tendenciesTable 10-15: Jamba Juice Users: Restaurant Usage by Daypartand Restaurant TypeJamba users: young!Table 10-16: Jamba Juice Users: Selected DemographicsA health-fueled bunchTable 10-17: Jamba Juice Users: Food, Health and Diet AttitudesDown go same-store sales
  • 10. Table 10-18: Jamba Juice, Selected Metrics, 2007-09Could a turnaround be in sight?Table 10-19: Jamba Juice, Selected Quarterly Metrics, 2009 and 2010Available immediately for Online Download athttp://www.marketresearch.com/product/display.asp?productid=2756368US: 800.298.5699UK +44.207.256.3920Intl: +1.240.747.3093Fax: 240.747.3004