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Lunch Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Market

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  • 1. Get more info on this report!Lunch Trends in the U.S. Foodservice MarketOctober 1, 2010To help foodservice industry participants face challenges unique to the lunch daypart,Lunch Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Market provides insight on the lunch goer’sdecision-making process. By putting a finger to the lunch goer’s pulse, we provideinsight on two keys factors to lunch-time foodservice: how and why the consumerdecided on a specific restaurant from which to obtain lunch, and how and why thatconsumer decides what to order from the menu.Introductory findings include the following: When deciding on a restaurant from which toobtain lunch, 37% of lunch goers cite a favorite menu item as influencing their choice,and some 36% cite a different menu item than what they have at home. But low costhas become the industry mantra—and is also important to many consumers. About 35%cite a meal priced under $5 as an influence when selecting a restaurant, and 31% saythat a meal priced under $10 has influenced them to select a restaurant for lunch.With proprietary consumer research laying the foundation, this report weavesconsultative insight with analysis of lunchtime limited-time offer and value trends;current lunchtime guest check averages; planned restaurant spending; and guest trafficpatterns at selected brands. We also shine a light on leading lunch-centric brands, byoutlining menu strategies and related innovations, and then tying them to demographicanalysis of the brand users’ diet, health, and food attitudes; and usage patterns. Thereport also trends lunch daypart sales by demographics such as income, age, region,and race/ethnicity. Analysis also focuses on consumers particularly important to thelunch daypart, such as the full-time and part-time employed.While the restaurant industry is the primary focus of the report, consumer surveyassessment incorporates prepared foods at grocery stores and convenience stores, andtrend analysis incorporates both restaurants and food retail.Additional InformationMarket Insights: A Selection From The Report
  • 2. Restaurant usage and usage frequencyAs part of our proprietary June 2010 consumer survey, Packaged Facts measuredrestaurant usage and mean usage frequency by restaurant type.As expected, mean use of “fast food/quick service restaurants” was substantially higherthan any other restaurant type—about two and a half times higher than the runner-upcausal restaurants—a testament to fast food’s strong value, low-cost, and conveniencepropositions.Consumers report an aggregate 11.2 visits in the past month to the listed restauranttypes: fast food/quick-service visits represent under half (45%) of all visits, followed bycasual restaurants (18%), family restaurants (15%) and coffeehouses (14%).Lunch day part accounts for about one-third of all usageAbout 34% of diners participating in Packaged Facts’ February 2010 proprietaryconsumer survey said they got “lunch” the “last time” they got food and/or drink from arestaurant, while 56% got “dinner/evening meal” and only 8% got “breakfast.”Extreme affordability weighs down fast food/QSRAs we discussed in The U.S. Foodservice Landscape: Industry and Consumer Trends,Momentum and Migration (Packaged Facts, May 2010), fast food/QSR operators areplaying the “price = value” card for everything its worth. By pushing the envelope with $1deals, they do risk enabling a pool of “extreme affordability” customers hooked onproducts that also suck the life out of guest check averages.The industry risks significant damage to margins and sales in the process, especially inlight of our theory that trade down to QSR from more expensive restaurant alternativeshas slowed considerably as the economy has stabilized. Moreover, without a way to pullnew traffic into its restaurants, brand growth now relies on share taking, so the industryessentially risks cannibalizing itself.In the News Restaurant Lunch Spending to Rebound in 2011: Strategies Targeting Cost and Health-Conscious Customers Sustain Industry in the InterimNew York, September 8, 2010 — U.S. consumer spending on lunch served inrestaurants is forecast to rebound 2% in 2011 to reach $114 billion following two yearsof recession-related declines, according to Lunch Trends in the U.S. Foodservice
  • 3. Market by research publisher Packaged Facts. After rising to $119 billion in 2008, lunchdaypart sales declined 4% in 2009, and sales are estimated to fall another 3% in 2010to $112 billion.“This has been a very tough climate for lunch foodservice and its counterparts, and thatwon’t change overnight although change is coming,” says Don Montuori, publisher ofPackaged Facts. “Growth in the lunch daypart still faces a few near-term challengesincluding the impact of unemployment on work-driven restaurant routines, bargain-minded consumers who weigh the cost of a bagged lunch against the indulgence ofeating out, and an industry environment in which players are chasing foot traffic at theexpense of guest check through the extreme push of value meal deals.”Ironically, by pushing the envelope with $1 deals, fast food operators are enabling apool of “extreme affordability” customers hooked on products that have indeedundermined guest check averages yet have also helped sustain the industry.Respondents to Packaged Facts’ proprietary survey reveal that interest in lunchtimemeals priced under $5 and under $10 is stable across household income brackets,suggesting price sensitivity among a large segment of diners regardless of theirpersonal wages. Respondents aged 18-24 are 60% more likely than average to choosea restaurant because it offers meals for under $3.The nigh ubiquitous limited time offer—with its allure to attract new visits and testlonger-term menu strategies—and the addition of bundling components could allowrestaurants to build up guest check sizes without sacrificing foot traffic, according to thereport. Notable examples include Taco Bell’s $2 Meal Deal, which by offering threeitems for $2 is intended as a twist on the more common 1:1 ratio of items per dollar asfeatured in Jack in the Box’s “Pick 3 for $3” customizable LTO value meal. Additionally,strategies by the likes of Denny’s and Bob Evan’s to place everyday value for qualityfood at the forefront of their branding initiatives makes a great deal of sense in thefamily restaurant sector, where value for the money has always been a selling point.Ingredients are almost as important as price for many consumers when dining out, andfood operators confirm guests’ growing interest in better-for-you choices. Customersseek foods offering positive health benefits (such as fiber and whole grains) and menuitems featuring more vegetables or fruit but less meat. Packaged Facts’ researchsuggests that students are more likely than average to be influenced by healthful lunchfoodservice decisions, while both men and women are likely to choose a restaurant thatoffers smaller portion sizes to reduce cost and control calories.Lunch Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Market provides insight and analysis onrecession-driven changes in the restaurant industry, focusing on related consumerattitudes and behaviors shaping the industry today and positioning the industrytomorrow. The report assesses key industry and consumer trends as applied torestaurant segments and restaurant brands; analysis is generally framed in terms ofcurrent trend momentum and 12-month outlook. With proprietary consumer researchlaying the foundation, this report also weaves consultative insight with analysis of
  • 4. lunchtime limited-time offer and value trends; current lunchtime guest check averages;planned restaurant spending; and guest traffic patterns at selected brands.About Packaged Facts - Packaged Facts, a division of MarketResearch.com,publishes market intelligence on a wide range of consumer market topics, includingconsumer goods and retailing, foods and beverages, demographics, pet products andservices, and financial products. Packaged Facts also offers a full range of customresearch services.Table of ContentsChapter 1: Executive SummaryScope and Methodology Scope MethodologyMacroeconomic Analysis Fast FactsRestaurant Usage & Outlook Tracker Fast FactsShare of Stomach: Lunch Sales Analysis Fast FactsLunch Trends, Innovations & Strategies Fast FactsLunch Restaurant Selection Analysis Fast FactsLunch Menu Selection Analysis Fast factsBudgeters and Healthy Eaters: Usage, Attitudes and Behavior DrilldrownLunch on the Menu: Restaurant Brand Trendsetters Chipotle Mexican Grill Panera Bread FreshiiChapter 2: Macroeconomic AnalysisRestaurant sales rally fizzles; long slog aheadRestaurant industry sales dip in June; future weakness likelySpending upturn hinges on consumers with strong balance sheets Upturn to benefit casual restaurants at expense of family and fast food/QSR players Non-discretionary spending a recession rule But affluent may help drive growth in discretionary spendPackaged Facts’ Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Gloomy Near-Term OutlookIn-home breakfast and dinner trend remains significantBagging lunch takes a bite out of restaurant sales?Graph 2-1: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior: A Top Line View
  • 5. Looking ahead: Saving & grocery spending trumps limited service and full- service restaurant spendGraph 2-2: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Next 3 Months: A Top Line View February to June food services & drinking places monthly sales sequentially improve Full-service restaurants get needed shot in the arm; shift momentum away from groceryGraph 2-3: Monthly Sales, 12-Month % Change, Grocery Stores & Food Services &Drinking Places, Full-Service Restaurants and Limited-Service Eating Places, 2009-2010 But month-to-month spending trends suggest restaurant and food retail pullbackGraph 2-4: Monthly Sales, Month-to-Month % Change, Grocery Stores & Food Services& Drinking Places, Full-Service Restaurants and Limited-Service Eating Places, 2009-2010Restaurant Performance Index contracts for second straight monthGraph 2-5: Restaurant Performance Index, Monthly Metrics, 2006-2010Macroeconomic factors shaping restaurant salesConsumer confidence? No, not really Present Situation Index decreases as perceptions of job prospects continue to darken Expectations Index weighed down by dimmer outlook on job prospectsUnemploymentrate stagnates Some perspective:Graph 2-6: Unemployment Rate and Consumer Confidence: 2007-2010By demographic, unemployment rates settle into troughs Disparity in unemployment rates by education level Young adults, minorities and men also find harder goingGraph 2-7: Unemployment Rate, Selected Demographics, 2007-2010Graph 2-8: Unemployment Rate, by Race/Ethnicity, 2007-2010How can increasing personal savings and reducing the debt burden be bad? Households continue to repair their balance sheetsGraph 2-9: Consumer Debt Burden, 2000-2010Graph 2-10: Savings Rate & Debt Service Ratio & Financial Obligations Ratio, 2007-2010Unemployment and GPD forecast: expect recovery to take several years Slow employment rebound to coincide with a slowrebound in consumer spendingGraph 2-11: Unemployment and GDP Forecast, 2010-12Stock & housing declines deflate household wealth; rebound to record 2006 levels along way off Q1 2009 to Q1 2010 sees uptick in household wealth, but still $10 trillion off 2006 highGraph 2-12: Household Net Worth, 2005-10 Case-Shiller and FOMC housing pessimism Q2 2010 summary equities analysisGraph 2-13: Wealth Effect: Wilshire 5000 and Case-Shiller Composite-20 Index: 2007-2010
  • 6. Food at home maintains pricing edgeGraph 2-14: CPI: Food at Home vs. Food Away from Home, 2005-2010Graph 2-15: CPI: Food at Home vs. Food Away from Home, 2005-2010Food inflation forecast remains muted CPI forecast for food at home and food away from homeCommodities pricing analysis Intermediate foods and feeds index dips during Q1 2010 Prepared animal feed prices lead decline Dairy product index falls after Q4 2009 hike Finished consumer foods rise Crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs rise tapers from Q4 2009 popChapter 3: Restaurant Usage & Outlook TrackerNote on reading chartsPackaged Facts’ Consumer Restaurant Tracker: at-home food spend trumps out-of-home spend February 2010 trend continues in June 2010Taking a bite from lunchGraph 3-1: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior: A Top Line View Looking ahead: Consumers more likely to save & spend on groceries than spend at restaurantsGraph 3-2: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Next 3 Months: A Top Line View Planned spending on fast food appears grimGraph 3-3: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior: Fast Food RestaurantSpending Intended full-service spend lacks promiseGraph 3-4: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior: Full-Service RestaurantSpendingIntention to save money remains highGraph 3-5: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior: Saving MoneyLunch restaurant goers intend to spend more at restaurants Intended spend more likely among smoothie shop, fine dining and coffeehouse lunch goersGraph 3-6: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior: Full-Service and Limited-Service Spending, Restaurant Lunch UsersRestaurant usage and usage frequencyOverview February 2010 to June 2010 mean use comparisonGraph 3-7: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010Graph 3-8: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 201018-34s continue to drive guest countsGraph 4-6: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by Age 18-34s exhibit higher usage Key smoothie shop and street stand usersGraph 3-10: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by AgeHH income: fast food enjoys egalitarian statusGraph 4-6: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010,
  • 7. by HH IncomeGraph 3-12: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by HH IncomeEmployment status: having a job pays the bills but also fits restaurant lifestyleGraph 3-13: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010,by Employment Status Full-time workers and students also compare favorably regarding overall usageGraph 3-14: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, byEmployment StatusRestaurant lunch useLunch day part accounts for about one-third of all usageGraph 3-15: Day Part Usage on Last Visit, 2010Fast food dominates lunchGraph 3-16: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for Lunch, 2010 Gender: men + grab-and-goGraph 3-17: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for Lunch, 2010, by Gender Age: mobile lifestyles speak volumesGraph 3-18: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for Lunch, 2010, by Age HH income: it’s all about disposable incomeGraph 3-19: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for Lunch, 2010, by HH Income Employment status a driving factor Students at the grocery store?Graph 3-20: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for Lunch, 2010, by Employment StatusAppendix: Consumer SurveyChapter 4: Share of Stomach: Lunch Sales AnalysisMarket size and overview Declining sales amidst a very touch climate Near-term challengesLunch daypart sales peak in 2008, dip in 2009 and 2010Graph 4-1: Lunch sales: limited-service and full-service restaurants, 2005-2011Graph 4-1: Lunch sales: limited-service and full-service restaurants, % growth, 2005-2011 Terminology and sourcing noteLunch comprises 12% of HH food spendGraph 4-2: Food at Home versus Food Away from Home Daypart SpendFast food has 50% share of lunch daypart salesGraph 4-3: Lunch Expenditures: Fast Food, Full-Service, Vending Machines &CafeteriasConsumer food expenditure trends suggest migration to food at home spendTable 4-1: Consumer Food Expenditures, 2005-08Lunch share of restaurant spend consistent during 2005-08Table 4-2: Meals Away From Home Expenditures, by Daypart, 2005-08Lunch takes only a 1.2% bite out of pre-tax incomeTable 4-3: Lunch Expenditures: Selected Metrics & Fast Food, Full-Service, VendingMachines Cafeteria Spend, 2005-08Graph 4-4: Lunch Expenditures: Fast Food, Full-Service, Vending Machines &Cafeterias, 2005-08
  • 8. Lunch expenditures highest in south Northeast consumer units spend least on percentage basisTable 4-4: Lunch Expenditures: Selected Metrics & Fast Food, Full-Service, VendingMachines and Cafeteria Spend, by RegionOn a per dollar basis, youth drives lunch spend 56% of 65+ lunch dollars go to full-service establishmentsTable 4-5: Lunch Expenditures: Selected Metrics & Fast Food, Full-Service, VendingMachines and Cafeteria Spend, by AgeHigher income = higher absolute lunch spend, but lower percentage of incomeTable 4-6: Lunch Expenditures: Selected Metrics & Fast Food, Full-Service, VendingMachines and Cafeteria Spend, by IncomeLunch share of wallet highest among HispanicsTable 4-7: Lunch Expenditures: Selected Metrics & Fast Food, Full-Service, VendingMachines and Cafeteria Spend, by Race/EthnicityGuest Traffic AnalysisFrequency counts: definition1 in 20 McDonald’s monthly users goes 14 or more times per month!Guest traffic rises most at Panera Bread and Chipotle Mexican GrillTable 4-8: Guest Traffic: Limited-Service Restaurants, Selected Lunch Players, 2008-10Daypart meal spend analysisBreakfast meal spend approaches that for lunch at fast food and family restaurantsGraph 4-5: Consumer Restaurant Meal Spend, by Daypart and Restaurant Type, 2010Lunch meal spend by restaurant type reveals significant differencesGraph 4-6: Lunch Meal Spend, Fast Food Versus Family Restaurants, SelectedDemographicsFast food daypart spending reveals differences among married and older usersTable 4-9: Meal Spend by Daypart, Fast Food Restaurants, Selected DemographicsChapter 5: Lunch Trends, Innovations & StrategiesDiscounting and bundlingExtreme affordability weighs down fast food/QSREveryday value strategies add wrinkle to family dining segmentFull-service value menusLunchtime LTO meal bundling trends Fast food/QSR Fast casual Family & casual dining restaurantsHealth on menu Choosing more healthful options away from home on the riseWhat does “healthy” mean to consumers?Table 5-1: Restaurant Health Attitudes, 2010Table 5-2: Consumers’ Associations with “Healthy,” 2010 Challenging perceptions that healthy food is more expensiveChapter 6: Lunch Restaurant Selection AnalysisNote on reading chartsLunch restaurant selection influencers
  • 9. OverviewGraph 6-1: Lunch Restaurant Selection Influencers, 2010Lunch restaurant selection: convenience influencers Gender shapes routineGraph 6-2: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Convenience Influencers, by Gender, 2010 Age-driven lifestyle needs influence lunch restaurant selectionGraph 6-3: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Convenience Influencers, by Age, 2010 HH income shapes importance of work proximityGraph 6-4: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Convenience Influencers, by HH Income, 2010 Employment status: work implies less mobility, more routineGraph 6-5: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Convenience Influencers, by EmploymentStatus, 2010 Urban, suburban, or rural location affect proximity and routineGraph 6-6: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Convenience Influencers, Urban, Suburban,Rural, 2010Restaurant selection: lunch menu item influencers Portion control for cost and for calories entices womenGraph 6-7: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Menu Influencers, by Gender, 2010 Portion control for cost savings a cue for 18-24sGraph 6-8: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Menu Influencers, by Age, 2010 Healthy menu items an egalitarian influenceGraph 6-9: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Menu Influencers, by HH Income, 2010 Students swayed by a plethora of menu items; retires another matterGraph 6-10: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Menu Influencers, by Employment Status,2010Restaurant selection: lunch cost threshold influencers Meal deal? At lower price points, women lunch goers just a tad more interestedGraph 6-11: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Cost Threshold Influencers, by Gender, 2010 Younger people: meal deal, please!Graph 6-12: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Cost Threshold Influencers, by Age, 2010 HH income: don’t underestimate interest in meal deals across the boardGraph 6-13: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Cost Threshold Influencers, by HH Income,2010 Employment status: students seeking dealsGraph 6-14: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Cost Threshold Influencers, by EmploymentStatus, 2010Restaurant selection: lunch dine-in partner influencers Age: friends, family, or alone?Graph 6-15: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Dine-in Partner Influencers, by Age, 2010Restaurant selection: lunch takeout partner influencers Save me some money on tip and drinks?Graph 6-16: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Takeout Partner Influencers, by Income, 2010Chapter 7: Lunch Menu Selection AnalysisNote on reading chartsLunch menu selection influencersOverview
  • 10. Graph 7-1: Menu Selection Influencers, Lunch Daypart, 2010 Health and bundles skew the age spectrumGraph 7-2: Lunch Menu Selection Influencers, by Age, 2010 HH income: seasonal and healthful items versus bundled itemsGraph 7-3: Lunch Menu Selection Influencers, by HH Income, 2010Employment status: students love a good bundle Graph 7-4: Lunch Menu Selection Influencers, by Employment Status, 2010Urban, suburban, or rural location: here’s to urban healthGraph 7-5: Lunch Menu Selection Influencers, by Rural/Urban/Suburban, 2010Chapter 8: Budgeters and Healthy Eaters: Usage, Attitudes and BehaviorDrilldrownMeet the Psychographic GroupsSome men really do like to eat healthy: how can operators connect with them? Budgeters drawn by cost, naturally, but by other factors, too Portion size provides double-sided menu connection with male Healthy Eaters Meal pricing thresholds provide opportunity to connect with male Healthy EatersTable 8-1: Selected Lunch Restaurant Selection Factors, Psychographic Groups, byGenderIncome splits reveal some lunch surprises Difference and customization more of a factor among <$50K Healthy Eaters Promotions and bundles incent wider swath of lower-HH income BudgetersTable 8-2: Selected Lunch Restaurant Selection Factors, Budgeters & Healthy Eaters,by HH IncomeYouth drives interest among both Budgeters and Healthy EatersTable 8-3: Selected Lunch Restaurant Selection Factors, Budgeters & Healthy Eaters,by AgeChapter 9: Restaurant Lunch Dining Partner AnalysisFast food lunch usage leads all daypartsTable 9-1: Fast Food Usage, by Daypart, Selected Demographics, 2010Family restaurant & steakhouse lunch usage lags dinner daypartTable 9-2: Family Restaurant & Steakhouse Usage, by Daypart, SelectedDemographics, 2010Fast food lunch dining partners differ according to demographicTable 9-3: Lunch Fast Food Usage, by Dining Partner, Selected Demographics, 2010Family restaurant & steakhouse lunch: more of an adult thingTable 9-4: Lunch Family Restaurant & Steakhouse Usage, by Dining Partner, SelectedDemographics, 2010Chapter 10: Lunch on the Menu: Restaurant Brand AnalysisNote on food lifestyle segmentation charts and demographicsChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Competitive positioning: Customization; Food with Integrity Marketing that backs Food with Integrity2010 strategy On the menu
  • 11. Restaurant expansion plans: digging deeper where presence is already established Loyalty program to target “evangelical, super-passionate regular customers”Chipotle Mexican Grill: selected demographics A 10 million-strong consumer universe Strong income and gender skewTable 10-1: Chipotle Mexican Grill Users: Selected DemographicsFood Lifestyle Segmentation: Variety on a Budget& True FoodiesGraph 10-1: Chipotle Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle SegmentationChipotle Mexican Grill users: gourmets, meet practicalityTable 10-2: Chipotle Mexican Grill Users: Food, Health and Diet AttitudesChipotle by the numbersTable 10-3: Chipotle Mexican Grill, Selected Metrics, 2007-09 Q2 2010 sales driven by increased visits OutlookTable 10-4: Chipotle Mexican Grill, Quarterly Sales Metrics, 2009-10Panera Bread 2009-2010 lunch strategy has positive momentum Trading up “You Pick”! Owning the menu category Next up: Paninis Catering: going after the big fish Loyalty programcoming to a Panera near you A toe in the licensing waterPanera Bread: selected demographics A 16.4 million universe Strong income and gender skewTable 10-5: Panera Bread Users: Selected DemographicsPanera Bread Food Lifestyle Segmentation Variety on a Budgetand True Foodies turn the doors with greatest frequencyGraph 10-2: Panera Bread Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle SegmentationPanera Bread users: food, health and diet attitudes A more health-conscious bunch with a touch of food guiltTable 10-6: Panera Bread Users: Food, Health and Diet AttitudesSales trending upwardTable 10-7: Panera Bread, Selected Metrics, 2007-09 Q2 2010 same-store sales jump almost 10% Shift in menu mix suggests movement toward higher-priced itemsTable 10-8: Panera Bread, Quarterly Sales Metrics, Q2 2009 & Q2 2010Freshii—the new name in healthful fareThe Freshii store and menuFast and convenientHealth placed front and center Calories and other health information updated in real timeA Freshii view of customization
  • 12. Technology savvy Green initiativesAvailable immediately for Online Download athttp://www.marketresearch.com/product/display.asp?productid=2756365US: 800.298.5699UK +44.207.256.3920Intl: +1.240.747.3093Fax: 240.747.3004