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Fresh Convenience Foods in the U.S.

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  • 1. Get more info on this report!Fresh Convenience Foods in the U.S.August 1, 2010During 2008 and 2009, as the “Great Recession” took hold, many consumer productmarketers and retailers acted as if the walls were closing in on them, in many casesresorting to rampant price-slashing. But not fresh convenience food marketers andretailers, who instead saw an opening. Wisely gauging their main competition as comingfrom the restaurant industry instead of less costly unprepared food, they continued theinnovations in quality and convenience that had been underway in the market forseveral years, and simultaneously began aggressively competing on price with thefoodservice industry in an effort to woo customers away.According to Packaged Facts, these efforts proved successful, spurring a shift by manyconsumers from restaurant meals to prepared food purchased at retail outlets. As aresult, the market for fresh convenience foods grew by 5.1% in 2009 to reach sales of$22.3 billion. Packaged Facts expects these marketing and merchandising efforts tocontinue to prove successful over the short term, driving sales of fresh conveniencefoods up another 28% by 2014 to $28.5 billion.Fully updated from the December 2007 edition, Fresh Convenience Foods in the U.S.offers a comprehensive look at this complex market. It examines the both myriad typesof fresh convenience foods and the myriad retail channels through which they areobtained—from traditional outlets such supermarkets and supercenters/massmerchandisers to such increasingly dynamic segments as convenience stores, delisand local food outlets, drugstores, the Internet, and even food carts.This full updated report details the complex changes that have taken place in the marketsince the previous edition, with new attention to competition by retail sector. UsingSymphony/IRI mass-market sales tracking data, it offers detailed accounts of sales andmarketer/brand activity across 17 refrigerated product segments, from lunch kits anddinners/entrees to fresh soup and side dishes, while diving into selected segmentsusing SPINSscan data for natural supermarket channel. The report projects sales,market growth drivers, and competitive opportunities, including an extensive account ofthe battle with the foodservice industry for consumer dollars that details thestaggering—and still growing—assortment of menu and marketing trends shaping the
  • 2. industry.A special feature of this report is custom survey data by Packaged Facts specificallyaddressing consumer purchasing of fresh prepared foods, including vis-à-vis the downeconomy. Additional demographic analysis derives from data compiled by ExperianSimmons, New York, NY, including demographic indexing of consumers most or leastlikely to often eat store-made, pre-cooked meals.Additional InformationMarket Insights: A Selection From The ReportLocal Food Holds Broad AppealIn Packaged Facts‟ opinion, nothing is hotter at the moment in the food industry than thetrend towards locally sourced or produced food. While locally produced food has longappealed to the LOHAS (Lifestyles of Health and Sustainability) consumer, by now theconcept has definitively expanded to the general populace, achieving a following amonga broad spectrum of consumers for different reasons. It bears noting, however, that onedrawback to locally sourced food as it applies to fresh prepared convenience food isthat local sourcing is not terribly convenient. Most notably in this regard, productavailability is restricted by growing region and season.Obviously, this poses less of a problem for a local chef operating a single-unitrestaurant specializing in locavore cuisine than it does for the food retailer trying toretain a constant offering of customer favorites in its prepared food sections. Butretailers should keep in mind that many consumers who are interested in buying localfood products are not committed locavores, but merely see the idea of a locally sourcedfood as a plus. In other words, while they would prefer to eat local in-season food, theyare also happy to purchase similar products when the first choice is out of season orotherwise unavailable.Recessionary Decline in Restaurant Traffic a Plus for Fresh Convenience FoodsThe results of Packaged Facts‟ consumer survey support the conclusion presentedearlier in this report—that key to fresh convenience food market growth in the face ofthe 2008/2009 “Great Recession” and still-iffy U.S. economy is the trend wherebyconsumers have traded down from restaurant meals in favor of fresh prepared foods.Since the recession began, 49% of the adults surveyed reported that they had eatenless at fast-food restaurants and 50% said they‟d eaten less fast-food takeout, while61% said they‟d eaten less at sit-down restaurants. Conversely, the percent of adultswho strongly agreed that they were spending less on groceries because of the economy
  • 3. was only 15%, while another 28% somewhat agreed. In other words, restaurantsexperienced a significant drop-off in consumer demand even as relatively fewconsumers cut back on grocery spending. [Figure 1-2]Table of ContentsChapter 1: Executive Summary Introduction Scope of Report Two Classifications Unpackaged Foods Packaged Foods Exclusions Report Methodology Market Trends Myriad Modalities of Fresh Prepared Food Retail Channels Compete with Each Other and with Foodservice Mega Brands Play Less of a Role in Fresh Convenience Food Private Label/Store Brands Are Disproportionately Important U.S. Retail Sales Top $22 Billion in 2009 Unpackaged Food Accounts for Lion‟s Share of Market Figure 1-1: Share of U.S. Retail Sales of Fresh Convenience Foods by Classification, 2005 vs. 2009 (percent) Supermarkets the Primary Retail Channel Marketers and Retailers Turn Recession to Advantage Retail Trends Take-and-Bake Is Taking Off Illustration 1-1: Papa Murphy‟s Website Banner for Take „N‟ Bake Pizza Going Head-to-Head with Restaurants Supermarkets: The Top Retail Channel for Fresh Prepared Foods Small Marts: Tesco Sets the Pace New Product, Menu & Food Trends Rate of Introductions Ready Meals and Salads Are the Most Active Classifications NRA‟s “What‟s Hot In 2010” Survey IDs Top Menu Trends Local Food Holds Broad Appeal World Cuisine: Ethnic Food as American as Apple Pie Mediterranean Food Packaged Food Trends Fresh Prepared Food Retail Segments Refrigerated Lunch Kits Refrigerated Prepared Salad/Fruit/Coleslaw Refrigerated Dinner/Entrees Consumer Trends
  • 4. Though Time-Pressed, Most Americans Are Trying to Eat Healthier Recessionary Decline in Restaurant Traffic a Plus for Fresh Convenience Foods Figure 1-2: Impact of Recession on Consumer Cooking and Restaurant Habits, May/June 2010 percent of U.S. adults) 18% of U.S. Consumers Are Buying More Fresh Prepared Foods Prime Targets: Young Singles Living on Their OwnChapter 2: Market Trends Introduction Market Definition: Fresh Prepared Convenience Foods Two Classifications Unpackaged Foods Packaged Foods Exclusions Report Methodology Market Fundamentals Myriad Modalities of Fresh Prepared Food The Lunch Kit Lesson: Freshness and Nutrition Sometimes in Eye of Beholder Mommy Bloggers Give Meal Kits a Big Thumbs Up Divergence of Views Underscores Complexity of Competition HACCP (Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point) = Prevention State of the Market Retail Channels Compete with Each Other and with Foodservice Legal Sea Foods Covers Supermarket, Restaurant, and Online Bases Illustration 2-1: Kroger In-store Bistro Columbus Ohio (2009) Illustration 2-2: Carrabba‟s Italian Grill in a Publix supermarket in Sarasota Florida Mega Brands Play Less of a Role in Fresh Convenience Food Private Label/Store Brands Are Disproportionately Important Table 2-1: Private-Label Ranking in 17 Packaged Fresh/Refrigerated Convenience Food Segments (in millions of dollars) More Retailers Manufacturing Their Own Brands Some Retailers Manufacturing Other Stores Brands Market Size and Growth U.S. Retail Sales Top $22 Billion in 2009 Table 2-2: U.S. Retail Sales of Fresh Convenience Foods, 2005-2009 (in millions of dollars) Unpackaged Food Accounts for Lion‟s Share of Market Figure 2-1: Share of U.S. Retail Sales of Fresh Convenience Foods by Type, 2005 vs. 2009 (percent) Entrees Top Unpackaged Foods Chart Figure 2-2: Prepared Deli Foods: Share of Total U.S. Retail Dollar Sales by Type, 2009 (percent) Lunch Kits the Top Mass-Market Packaged Segment Table 2-3: Percent Share of SymphonyIRI-Tracked Dollar Sales of Packaged Refrigerated Fresh Convenience Food by Segment, 2009 Supermarkets the Primary Retail Channel
  • 5. Figure 2-3: Share of U.S. Retail Sales of Fresh Convenience Foods by Channel, 2009 (percent) Looking Ahead Marketers and Retailers Turn Recession to Advantage On The Food Front On The Packaging Front On the Merchandising Front Targeted Pricing Plus Innovation Equals Profit Prepared Foods Gain at Convenience Stores Restaurant Industry Takes It on the Chin The I Hate to Cook Book: Lessons and Opportunities Sandra Lee Combines Fresh Ingredients and Prepared Food on the Food Network Illustration 2-3: Recipe for Sandra Lee‟s Creamy Chicken Noodle Soup Prepared Foods Are a Time-Saving Meal Component Can Sales of Fresh Convenience Food Continue to Grow? Will Jobless Recovery Be Enough to Trigger New Product Turnaround? Projected Market Growth Table 2-4: Projected U.S. Retail Sales of Fresh Convenience Foods, 2009-2014 (in millions of dollars)Chapter 3: Retail Trends Introduction Retail Distribution Methods Direct Delivery Advantages The Cost of Face-to-Face Business Advantages of Warehouse Delivery Smaller Marketers Work Through Brokers Fresh Prepared Foods Can Involve Unique Distribution Trade Shows Introduce New Products to Market Types of Retail Channels Retail Trend Overview Take-and-Bake Is Taking Off Illustration 3-1: Papa Murphy‟s Website Banner for Take „N‟ Bake Pizza Kroger Is an Early Adapter of Take-and-Bake Overall Deli Pizza Sales Up 15% in 2009 Incentives in Retail Pizza Going Head-to-Head with Restaurants In-Store Full-Services Restaurants: Focus on Wegmans‟ Pub Store Brands Dominate 2009 Product Launches Table 3-1: Leading Marketers of Fresh Convenience Foods by Number of New Product SKUs, 2009-2010 (percent) Fresh & Easy Focusing on Eatwell Line Illustration 3-2: Fresh & Easy Website Banner for Eatwell Fresh Prepared Foods Retail Channel Spotlight Channel Blurring Supermarkets: The Top Retail Channel for Fresh Prepared Foods
  • 6. Bloom: Wave of the Future? Illustration 3-3: Website Description of Bloom Stores from Shopbloom.com Small Marts: Tesco Sets the Pace Health & Natural Food Stores: Retailers Moving Mainstream Delis and Other Local Food Outlets: Urban Cannibals Bodega and Bites Applies New Spin Illustration 3-4: Interior of Urban Cannibal Bites and Bodega Social Media Work Well for Small Food Shops Illustration 3-5: Sparrow Market Facebook Wall Page Supercenters, Mass Merchandisers and Warehouse Clubs Prepared Foods Leads BJ‟s Comeback Convenience Stores: Prepared Foods Becoming Increasingly Sophisticated C-Store Strategies 7-Eleven Going Strong Gourmet/Specialty Food Stores: A Tough Competitor in Affluent Urban Areas Drugstores: Prepared Food Redux Illustration 3-6: Lunch Counter and Soda Fountain at Hewitt‟s Drugstore (Anchorage, Alaska) 1940s Illustration 3-7: Duane Reade Convenience Food Section, 2009 Illustration 3-8: Sushi Duane Reade Drugstore Style Walgreens Moves Forward with Chilled Prepared Foods Tests Dollar Stores: Prepared Food One of Three Top Gainers E-tailers and Mail Order Illustration 3-9: Fresh Direct prepared Food webpage Illustration 3-10: Susan‟s Healthy Gourmet Homepage Illustration 3-11: Google Search Shopping Results for “Fresh Crab Cakes” Gourmet Food Trucks & Carts: A Great Test Kitchen Table 3-2: Percent of Adults Who Have Bought Food from Street Stands, Food Trucks or Mobile Food Carts in Past Month: Overall and by Key Demographic, February 2010Chapter 4: New Product, Menu & Food Trends New Product Trends: Fresh Packaged Products Rate of Introductions Figure 4-1: Number of Fresh Prepared Food Reports and SKUs, 2005-2010 Ready Meals and Salads Are the Most Active Classifications Figure 4-2: Number of Fresh Prepared Food SKUs by Classification, 2005-2009 New Product Themes Fresh and Convenient Illustration 4-1: Olivia‟s Organics Single Salad to Go! and Walmart‟s Marketside Hoagie Small Mart and Other Private-Label Brands Going Strong Value Appeals Illustration 4-2: Wegmans Alternatives to Eating Out Pulled BBQ Pork, and Fresh & Easy‟s Family Size Fully Cooked Big Lasagna with Meat Sauce Gourmet and Ethnic Natural/Organic
  • 7. Kids Foods Illustration 4-3: Oscar Mayer Lunchables Beef Taco Wrapz, and Natural Foods Corp.‟s Better‟n Peanut Butter Sandwiches Table 4-1: Examples of Fresh Prepared Food New Product Introductions: By Type, Marketer and Brand, 2009-2010 Selected Menu & FoodTrends NRA‟s “What‟s Hot In 2010” Survey IDs Top Menu Trends Local Food Holds Broad Appeal 7 Different Aspects of Local Food Trend Taste Value Nutrition Global Ecology Freshness Local Economic Development Local Vegetables Could Add Green to Local Economies Food Safety Informal Focus Group Reflects Packaged Facts‟ 7 Aspects of Local Food Appeal Local Fresh Prepared Foods Illustration 4-4: Dinners to You Web Page Featuring Dinners with Fresh, Local and Seasonal Ingredients World Cuisine: Ethnic Food as American as Apple Pie Mediterranean Food An Increasingly Diverse Segment Regional Mediterranean Cuisine But Mediterranean Often Painted with Broad Brush Sushi Sam‟s Sushi Gluten-Free Foods Why a Gluten-Free Diet? Gluten-Free Takes on Healthy Halo Gluten-Free Fresh Prepared Food Illustration 4-5: Jason‟s Deli Gluten-Free Sandwiches Online Survey, 2010Chapter 5: Packaged Food Trends Introduction Fresh Prepared Food Retail Segments Table 5-1: Selected Segments of Packaged Refrigerated Fresh Convenience Foods: 2009 SymphonyIRI-Tracked Dollar Sales and Percentage Change, 2009 vs. 2008 (in millions of dollars) Refrigerated Lunch Kits The Largest Segment, at $771 Million Top Three Marketers Account for 98% of Sales Most Top 10 Marketers Show Impressive Growth Spotlight on Kraft Foods Focus on Lunch Kits
  • 8. Table 5-2: Leading Refrigerated Lunch Kit Marketers and Brands: bySymphonyIRI-Tracked Sales and Share, 2009 vs. 2008 (in millions of dollars)Refrigerated Prepared Salad/Fruit/ColeslawSales Up 7.3% in 2009Lower Tier of Top 10 Marketers Tightly BunchedEight of Top 10 Marketers Register Strong GrowthSpotlight on Del Monte FoodsTable 5-3: Leading Refrigerated Prepared Salad/Fruit/Coleslaw Marketers andBrands: by SymphonyIRI-Tracked Sales and Share, 2009 vs. 2008 (in millions ofdollars)Refrigerated Dinner/EntreesSales Slip a Bit in 2009Curly‟s & Jack Daniels Are Only Top 10 GainersSpotlight on HormelTable 5-4: Leading Refrigerated Dinners/Entrees Marketers and Brands: bySymphonyIRI-Tracked Sales and Share, 2009 vs. 2008 (in millions of dollars)Refrigerated Appetizers/Snack RollsSales Up 12% to $385 MillionAdvanced Fresh Concepts Controls Over Half of SalesJapanese Food Express Leads Growth Among Top 10Smaller Marketers Show Explosive GrowthSpotlight on Segment Leader AFCTable 5-5: Leading Refrigerated Appetizers/Snack Rolls Marketers and Brands:by SymphonyIRI-Tracked Sales and Share, 2009 vs. 2008 (in millions of dollars)Refrigerated Flavored SpreadsSales up 16% to $312 MillionMediterranean Dip Specialist Sabra LeadsSabra Also the Growth Leader Among Top 10Spotlight on Segment Leader SabraJoint Agreement with PepsiCoTable 5-6: Leading Refrigerated Flavored Spreads Marketers and Brands: bySymphonyIRI-Tracked Sales and Share, 2009 vs. 2008 (in millions of dollars)Refrigerated Potato Side DishesSegment Sales StagnateSpotlight on Segment Leader Northern StarTable 5-7: Leading Refrigerated Potato Side Dish Marketers and Brands: bySymphonyIRI-Tracked Sales and Share, 2009 vs. 2008 (in millions of dollars)Refrigerated Pizza/Pizza KitsSizzling 18% Growth in 2009Plaza Belmont Controls a Third of SalesVicolo Scores 90% Retail Sales GainSpotlight on Segment Leader Plaza BelmontTable 5-8: Leading Pizza/Pizza Kit Marketers and Brands: by SymphonyIRI-Tracked Sales and Share, 2009 vs. 2008 (in millions of dollars)Refrigerated Hand-held Non-Breakfast EntreesSales Slip 2%
  • 9. Top 10 Marketers Had Tough Sledding In 2009, But Lower Tier Marketers Excel Spotlight on Segment Leader Stefano Foods Table 5-9: Leading Hand-held Non-Breakfast Entrees Marketers and Brands: by SymphonyIRI-Tracked Sales and Share, 2009 vs. 2008 (in millions of dollars) Refrigerated Fresh Soup No Growth Despite Dazzling Performance by Legal Sea Foods Spotlight on Third-Place Legal Sea Foods Table 5-10: Leading Fresh Soup Marketers and Brands: by SymphonyIRI- Tracked Sales and Share, 2009 vs. 2008 (in millions of dollars) Other Fresh Convenience Food Segments Refrigerated Side Dish Growth Stagnant, Competition Hectic Spotlight on Refrigerated Side Dish Segment Leader Bob Evans Farms Reser‟s Leads Refrigerated Meat Spread/Salad Segment Bob Evans Leads Moderately Gaining Refrigerated Breakfast Entrees Segment Great Lakes Kraut Bests Kraft, ConAgra and Birdseye in Sauerkraut Segment All Top Marketers See Sales Decline in 2009 Spotlight on Sauerkraut Segment Leader Great Lakes Kraut Refrigerated Chili Segment Cools Despite Some Strong Showings $3 Million Potato Segment Dominated by Bob Evans Stuffed Potatoes and Sweet Potatoes Table 5-11: Leading Refrigerated Side Dish Marketers and Brands: by SymphonyIRI-Tracked Sales and Share, 2009 vs. 2008 (in millions of dollars) Table 5-12: Leading Refrigerated Meat Spread/Salad Marketers and Brands: by SymphonyIRI-Tracked Sales and Share, 2009 vs. 2008 (in millions of dollars) Table 5-13: Leading Refrigerated Breakfast Entrees Marketers and Brands: by SymphonyIRI-Tracked Sales and Share, 2009 vs. 2008 (in millions of dollars) Table 5-14: Leading Refrigerated Sauerkraut Marketers and Brands: by SymphonyIRI-Tracked Sales and Share, 2009 vs. 2008 (in millions of dollars) Table 5-15: Leading Refrigerated Chili Marketers and Brands: by SymphonyIRI- Tracked Sales and Share, 2009 vs. 2008 (in millions of dollars) Table 5-16: Refrigerated Potato Marketers and Brands: by SymphonyIRI-Tracked Sales and Share, 2009 vs. 2008 (in millions of dollars) Natural Supermarket Channel Top Picks Introduction Refrigerated Entrees & Sushi & Grab N Go Meals Table 5-17: Top 5 Marketers/Brands in the Natural Supermarket Channel: Refrigerated Entrees & Sushi & Grab N Go Meals, 52 Weeks Ending February 10 vs. Year-Ago (in dollars) Salsas & Dips Table 5-18: Top 5 Marketers/Brands in the Natural Supermarket Channel: Salsas & Dips, 52 Weeks Ending February 10 vs. Year-Ago (in dollars)Chapter 6: Consumer Trends Introduction Methodology Though Time-Pressed, Most Americans Are Trying to Eat Healthier
  • 10. Figure 6-1: Consumer Attitudes About Healthy Foods and Time Constraints,2009/10 (percent of U.S. adults)Recessionary Decline in Restaurant Traffic a Plus for Fresh Convenience FoodsTable 6-1: Level of Agreement with Statement, “I Am Spending Less onGroceries These Days Because of the Economy,” May/June 2010 (percent ofU.S. adults)Figure 6-2: Impact of Recession on Consumer Cooking and Restaurant Habits,May/June 2010 percent of U.S. adults)NGA Survey Supports Shift from Restaurants to Retail/At- Home Meal PrepPackaged Facts Survey Indicates Trend Will ContinueTable 6-2: “In Comparison to Right Now, How Much Money Do You Plan toSpend on Meals Eaten at Full-Service Restaurants During the Following 3Months?”, May/June 2010 (percent of adults)Table 6-3: “In Comparison to Right Now, How Much Money Do You Plan toSpend on Meals Eaten at Fast-Food Restaurants During the Following 3Months?”, May/June 2010 (percent of adults)Table 6-4: “In Comparison to Right Now, How Much Money Do You Plan toSpend on Takeout/Delivery/Drive-Thru Meals Eaten at Full-Service RestaurantsDuring the Following 3 Months?”, May/June 2010 (percent of adults)18% of U.S. Consumers Are Buying More Fresh Prepared FoodsTable 6-5: “Have You Eaten More Store-Bought Fresh Prepared Foods Since theRecession Began?”, May/June 2010 (percent of adults)Room for GrowthTable 6-6: Percent of Adults Who Have Purchased or Eaten Any Store-BoughtFresh Prepared Foods in the Last 3 Months, May/June 2010Reasons for Buying Ready-to-Eat and/or Heat-and-Eat Food from GroceryStores or Convenience StoresTable 6-7: Reasons for Getting Ready-to-Eat and/or Heat-and-Eat Food from aGrocery Store/Supermarket, 2009 (percent)Table 6-8: Reasons for Getting Ready-to-Eat and/or Heat-and-Eat Food from aConvenience Store/Gas Station, 2009 (percent)Walmart Tops List of Outlets for Fresh Convenience FoodsTable 6-9: Percent of Adults Who Have Purchased Fresh Convenience Foodfrom Outlets Other Than Conventional Supermarkets in the Last 3 Months: ByType of Outlet, May/June 201045% of Consumers Have Dinner Composed Solely of Fresh Convenience Food55% of Consumers Have Dinner Partially Composed of Fresh Convenience FoodTable 6-10: Percent of Adults Who Have Eaten a Meal Composed Solely ofStore-Bought Fresh Prepared Food Items in the Last 3 Months: By Daypart,May/June 2010Table 6-11: Percent of Consumers Who Have Eaten a Meal Composed Partiallyof Store-Bought Fresh Prepared Food Items in the Last 3 Months: By Daypart,May/June 2010The Experian Simmons Survey SystemRelatively Flat indexes Among Frequent Consumers of Store- Made, Pre-CookedMeals
  • 11. Prime Targets: Young Singles Living on Their Own Table 6-12: Above-Average Demographics for Agreement with Statement: “I Often Eat Store-Made, Pre-Cooked Meals” (index of U.S. adults) Large Households Make for Less Frequent Consumers Table 6-13: Below-Average Demographics for Agreement with Statement: “I Often Eat Store-Made, Pre-Cooked Meals” (index of U.S. adults) Customers Who Disagree That They Frequently Eat Fresh Prepared Meals Table 6-14: Above- and Below-Average Demographics for Disagreement with Statement: “I Often Eat Store-Made, Pre-Cooked Meals” (index of U.S. adults) Summing Up: Good News for Fresh Convenience Food Marketers Store-by-Store Analysis: Thumbs Up for Meijer, Down for Sam‟s Club Table 6-15: Above Average Consumer Demographics for Agreement with Statement “I Often Eat Store-Made, Pre-Cooked Meals” by Outlet (index of U.S. adults) Table 6-16: Below Average Consumer Demographics for Agreement with Statement “I Often Eat Store-Made, Pre-Cooked Meals” by Outlet (index of U.S. adults) Table 6-17: Above Average Consumer Demographics for Disagreement with Statement “I Often Eat Store-Made, Pre-Cooked Meals” by Outlet (index of U.S. adults) Table 6-18: Below Average Consumer Demographics for Disagreement with Statement “I Often Eat Store-Made, Pre-Cooked Meals” by Outlet (index of U.S. adults) Wegmans Survey Shows that 22% of Americans Eat Fresh Prepared Foods Weekly Customers Want Their Meals to Be Easy, Healthy and AffordableAvailable immediately for Online Download athttp://www.marketresearch.com/product/display.asp?productid=2511642US: 800.298.5699UK +44.207.256.3920Intl: +1.240.747.3093Fax: 240.747.3004

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