Get more info on this report!Childrens Publishing Market Forecast 2011September 30, 2010Now in its fifth edition, Children...
Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2011 includes detailed strategic and financialprofiles of companies such as Candlewi...
Table 1.7: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Women with      Children in Household Who Have Purchased ...
Table 2.1: Growth of Juvenile Trade vs. Adult Trade      Table 2.2: Bookstores Compare the First-Half Performances of Adul...
Table 3.7: Top 20 USA Today Imprints, July 2009-June 2010      Table 3.8: Top 20 Authors, July 2008-June 2009      Table 3...
Graphic NovelHistoryHorrorHorror & GhostHumorPeople & PlacesReligionSchools & EducationScience FictionSocial IssuesSocial ...
Table 5.30: Schools & Education Bestseller Performance      Table 5.31: Vital Statistics - Schools & Education      Table ...
Table 7.1: Things Parents Have Done in Relation to Child’s Reading Habits       Table 7.2: Revenue Growth, Children’s Trad...
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Children's Publishing Market Forecast 2011

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Transcript of "Children's Publishing Market Forecast 2011"

  1. 1. Get more info on this report!Childrens Publishing Market Forecast 2011September 30, 2010Now in its fifth edition, Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2011 offers anaccurate and objective perspective on where the market for children’s books is headedin 2011, as well as analysis of market opportunities and pitfalls. How are publishersbattling challenges such as an overall decline in reading, returns of unsold stock fromretailers, and the intensifying battle for shelf space?The overwhelming successes of children’s book series in recent years such as HarryPotter, Captain Underpants and Stephenie Meyer’s Twilight have sent publishersscrambling to uncover the next multi-title blockbuster craze. In addition, bestsellingindividual titles of rapidly growing genres like graphic novels have illuminated thechildren’s book market as a lucrative space for publishers, editors, marketers,distributors and retailers in the trade book industry. What’s more, the nuances ofchildren’s books compared to “young adult” titles needs to be better understood byeveryone in the industry value chain.Armed with an archive of trade book data that goes back more than 30 years, Simba’steam of seasoned trade book analysts examines the market for children’s bookssegment by segment, from youngsters to tweens to teens. In addition, Children’sPublishing Market Forecast 2011 provides high-quality, unbiased market intelligenceon the publishing houses, and the entire retail landscape, from independent bookstoresto online outlets to big box stores.Gain access to exclusive statistics and analysis such as: An in-depth look at bestselling children’s books drawn from the USA Today, Publishers Weekly and New York Times lists, with breakdowns of top-performing titles, authors, imprints and a comprehensive category ranking of which books are selling and which are not. Expanded analysis of the most vital facet of children’s publishing: series books. Results from Simba’s surveys of independent retailers across the country rating different books and genres; as well as info on buyer profiles and behaviors. Exclusive five-year category trends for 15 major juvenile categories.
  2. 2. Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2011 includes detailed strategic and financialprofiles of companies such as Candlewick Press, Disney Publishing Worldwide,Hachette Book Group, HarperCollins, Holtzbrinck, Houghton Mifflin, Penguin Group,Random House, Scholastic and Simon & Schuster.This report is a critical tool in evaluating growth potential, understanding trends affectingthe industry, sizing up the competition, reviewing potential partner or acquisition profiles,examining market share rankings of leading publishers, benchmarking performance,and planning short- and long-term growth strategies.Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2011 is essential for publishing executives,M&A advisors, market analysts, and industry consultants who need to understand thebusiness strategies driving the children’s trade book publishing industry today.Simba senior trade book analyst Michael Norris has been tapped by the New YorkTimes, TIME and USA Today to discuss industry trends and bestseller data for theadult and childrens publishing markets. Have this firsthand intelligence at your fingertipsto understand buyer habits, the significance of series, and where the strengths andweaknesses lie for the top imprints in trade book publishing today.Table of ContentsMethodologyExecutive SummaryChapter 1: Overview of the U.S. Children’s Book Market and Buyer Demographics Introduction Who Are the Buyers? Who’s Reading the Books? Table 1.1: Cell Phone Content Allocation for Children Table 1.2: Who is Buying the Most of the Children’s/YA Titles in Your Store? Table 1.3: When Parent(s) or Adults are buying a Children’s/YA book, who is it usually? Table 1.4: Who is the second most likely adult buying Children’s/YA books at your store? Table 1.5: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) Adults Who Have Purchased Children’s Books Table 1.6: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) Adults with Children in Household Who Have Purchased Children’s Books
  3. 3. Table 1.7: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Women with Children in Household Who Have Purchased Children’s Books Table 1.8: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) Men with Children in Household Who Have Purchased Children’s Books Table 1.9: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) Grandparents Who Have Purchased Children’s Books Table 1.10: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) Grandmothers Who Have Purchased Children’s Books Table 1.11: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) Grandfathers Who Have Purchased Children’s Books Table 1.12: Describe the Gender Mix of Children’s/YA Book Buyers at Your Store Table 1.13: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Gender Table 1.14: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Race Table 1.15: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Age Bracket Table 1.16: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Education Level Table 1.17: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Household Income Table 1.18: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Employment Status Table 1.19: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Occupation Table 1.20: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Adults, Parents and Grandparents Table 1.21: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Marital Status Table 1.22: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Book Consumers by Age of Children in HouseholdChapter 2: Trends in Children’s Book Publishing Introduction Children’s/YA Business vs. Adult Trade Estimated Net Sales Children and Young Adults Are Reading Less The Role of the Internet, Electronic Components Still Evolving The Value of Series Series Author Case Study: Stephenie Meyer Series Author Case Study: J.K.Rowling Fewer Authors Responsible for More Books Trade Paperback Still Gaining Favor TV and Movie Tie-Ins Becoming More Important Retailers and Publishers Relationships and Influence Changing Teen Book Market Growth Outpacing Young Children’s
  4. 4. Table 2.1: Growth of Juvenile Trade vs. Adult Trade Table 2.2: Bookstores Compare the First-Half Performances of Adult Trade and Juvenile, 2010 vs. 2009 Table 2.3: Percentage of Children Who Read Almost Every Day for Fun Table 2.4: Average Amount of Time Spent Reading Print Media (Books) Table 2.5: A Day in the Life of an 8-18 Year Old Media Consumer Table 2.6: Class Share of E-Book Bestsellers, 2008-2009 Table 2.7: Class Share of E-Book Bestsellers, 2009-2010 Table 2.8: NYT/USA Today Children’s Bestsellers, July 2008-June 2009 Table 2.9: NYT/USA Today Children’s Bestsellers, July 2009-June 2010 Table 2.10: Stephenie Meyer’s Twilight Series by Consolidated Rating, July 2008-December 2009 Table 2.11: Scholastic Revenue, FY2000-2008 Table 2.12: Average Bestselling Titles per Author Table 2.13: What Format of Children’s/YA Has Been a Particularly Strong Performer in the First Half of 2008-2009-2010? Table 2.14: What Format of Children’s/YA Has Been a Particularly Weak Performer in the First Half of 2008-2009-2010? Table 2.15: Top Ten Trade Categories (2005-2009) Table 2.16: How Would You Rate the Following Formats of Children’s Books in Terms of How They Sell? Table 2.17: Children’s Titles on Weekly Bestseller Lists (NYT, USA Today) Table 2.18: When Looking at Children’s and Young Adult Titles Separately, How Would You Say Your Business Is Trending? Table 2.19: What Age Range Are Your Most Successful Children’s/YA Titles Found?Chapter 3: Leading Authors, Books and Imprints Introduction New York Times Series Bestsellers USA Today Bestsellers Bestselling Books, Authors, Imprints and Categories Composite Analysis of USA Today and New York Times Lists Bestselling Books Bestselling Authors Leading Imprints Comparing Parent Publishers: Total Bestsellers and Weeks per Title Table 3.1: No. of New Children’s/YA Titles Appearing on NYT & USA Today Bestseller Lists, July 2006-June 2010 Table 3.2: Top 20 New York Times Series, July 2009-June 2010 Table 3.3: Top 20 New York Times Series Authors, July 2009-June 2010 Table 3.4: Top New York Times Series Imprints, July 2010-June 2011 Table 3.5: Top 20 USA Today Bestsellers, July 2009-June 2010 Table 3.6: Top 20 USA Today Authors, July 2009-June 2010
  5. 5. Table 3.7: Top 20 USA Today Imprints, July 2009-June 2010 Table 3.8: Top 20 Authors, July 2008-June 2009 Table 3.9: Top 20 Authors, July 2009-June 2010 Table 3.10: Top 20 Imprints, July 2009-June 2010 Table 3.11: Leading Children’s Book Publishers, Two-Year Comparison, July 2008-June 2010 Table 3.12: Comparison of Publishers, July 2009-June 2010Chapter 4: Market Sizing and Forecasts Introduction Leading Children’s Publishers Candlewick Disney Publishing Worldwide Hachette/Little, Brown Books for Young Readers HarperCollins Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Macmillan Penguin Group (USA) Random House Scholastic Simon & Schuster Revenue Trends Valuation Trends Size of the Children’s Publishing Market Leading Children’s Publishers by Revenue First-Half Comparisons, 2010 vs. 2008 Forecast for Balance of 2010 and Beyond Table 4.1: Harry Potter-Only Revenue, Scholastic Table 4.2: Revenue Growth, Children’s Trade Book Market, 2006-2011P Table 4.3: Leading Children’s Publishers, 2008-2012P Table 4.4: AAP Results: Children’s/YA Category Net Sales Table 4.5: AAP Results: Children’s/YA Category ReturnsChapter 5: Category Trends Introduction The Top Categories USA Today Bestseller Data Children’s Titles vs. All Titles Released Children’s/YA Category Analysis Action & Adventure Animals Family & Relationships Fantasy
  6. 6. Graphic NovelHistoryHorrorHorror & GhostHumorPeople & PlacesReligionSchools & EducationScience FictionSocial IssuesSocial ScienceTable 5.1: Leading Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July2007-June 2008Table 5.2: Leading Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July2008-June 2009Table 5.3: Leading Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July2009-June 2010Table 5.4: Leading USA Today Children’s book Categories by No. of BestsellingTitles, July 2008-June 2009Table 5.5: Leading USA Today Children’s book Categories by No. of BestsellingTitles, July 2009-June 2010Table 5.6: New Children’s/YA Titles vs. All New Titles Released, 2004-2008Table 5.7: Select Category Ratings, Six-Year OverviewTable 5.8: Action & Adventure Bestseller PerformanceTable 5.9: Vital Statistics - Action & AdventureTable 5.10: Animals Bestseller PerformanceTable 5.11: Vital Statistics - AnimalsTable 5.12: Family & Relationships Bestseller PerformanceTable 5.13: Vital Statistics - Family & RelationshipsTable 5.14: Fantasy Bestseller PerformanceTable 5.15: Vital Statistics - FantasyTable 5.16: Graphic Novel Bestseller PerformanceTable 5.17: Vital Statistics - Graphic NovelTable 5.18: History Bestseller PerformanceTable 5.19: Vital Statistics - HistoryTable 5.20: Horror Bestseller PerformanceTable 5.21: Vital Statistics - HorrorTable 5.22: Horror & Ghost Bestseller PerformanceTable 5.23: Vital Statistics - Horror & GhostTable 5.24: Humor Bestseller PerformanceTable 5.25: Vital Statistics - HumorTable 5.26: People & Places Bestseller PerformanceTable 5.27: Vital Statistics - People & PlacesTable 5.28: Religion Bestseller PerformanceTable 5.29: Vital Statistics - Religion
  7. 7. Table 5.30: Schools & Education Bestseller Performance Table 5.31: Vital Statistics - Schools & Education Table 5.32: Science Fiction Bestseller Performance Table 5.33: Vital Statistics - Science Fiction Table 5.34: Social Issues Bestseller Performance Table 5.35: Vital Statistics - Social Issues Table 5.36: Social Science Bestseller Performance Table 5.37: Vital Statistics - Social ScienceChapter 6: Distribution and Retail Sales Introduction Where Books Are Being Purchased Mass Merchandisers and Children’s Book Retailing Performance and Outlook of the Big Three Chains Barnes & Noble Borders Group Books-A-Million Profit Margins at the Big Three Chains Superstores and Small Format Store Closings Online Bookselling Amazon.com The Big Three Channel Breakdown for All Book Buyers vs. Children’s Book Buyers Table 6.1: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Sales Channel Trends Table 6.2: Number of Physical Stores, Big Three vs. Big Box Table 6.3: Bestselling Children’s Books at Select Retail Store Web Sites, 2009 Table 6.4: Revenue Growth, Leading Bookstore Chains, Fiscal 2004-2008 Table 6.5: Growth in Superstore Sales, Major Retail Chains, 2005-2009 Table 6.6: Big Three Bookstore Chains Operating Performance, 2004-2008 Table 6.7: Number of Superstore Outlets, 2003-2008 Table 6.8: Amazon’s North American Media Sales as a Percentage of Total Sales, 2002-2009 Table 6.9: Revenue of Leading Online Booksellers, 2004-2008 Table 6.10: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Channel by Type of Book Buyer Table 6.11: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Channel Exclusivity by Type of Book BuyerChapter 7: Forecasts and Conclusions Conclusions Other Recommendations
  8. 8. Table 7.1: Things Parents Have Done in Relation to Child’s Reading Habits Table 7.2: Revenue Growth, Children’s Trade Book Market, 2006-2011PProfiles of Leading Children’s Book Publishers Candlewick Press Disney Publishing Worldwide Hachette Book Group HarperCollins Publishers Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Macmillan Penguin Group (USA) Random House Inc. Scholastic Corp. Simon & SchusterAvailable immediately for Online Download athttp://www.marketresearch.com/product/display.asp?productid=2523149US: 800.298.5699UK +44.207.256.3920Intl: +1.240.747.3093Fax: 240.747.3004

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