Andersen oxford2010


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Presentation from 2010 Oxford Round Table

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Andersen oxford2010

  1. 1. Predicting impacts of climate change on biodiversity<br />Dr. Mark C. Andersen, ProfessorDepartment of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation EcologyNew Mexico State UniversityLas Cruces, NM<br />Oxford Round TableThe Copenhagen Protocol: Problems and PossibilitiesLincoln College, Oxford25 March 2010<br />
  2. 2. Climate changes (past and present) influence biodiversity.<br />To anticipate and manage future impacts we need to be able to predict them.<br />
  3. 3. Copenhagen committed the world to adaptation<br />Even if targets are met, there is a substantial gap between impacts that can be mitigated and impacts to which we will have to adapt.<br />Most unavoidable impacts are impacts on ecosystems, including<br />Extensive coral bleaching<br />Increased amphibian extinctions<br />Greatly elevated risk of extinction for 20-30% of the world’s species.<br />Parry, Nature Reports Climate Change, 2010<br />
  4. 4. This presentation will …<br />Summarize climate change impacts<br />Habitats<br />Ecosystems<br />Species<br />Introduce methods to predict geographic ranges<br />Bioclimatic<br />Maximum entropy<br />Discuss limitations<br />
  5. 5. Summarize climate change impacts<br />
  6. 6. Climate change is impacting habitats<br />Some eastern North American tree species migrating northward 1 km per year. (Woodall et al 2009)<br />Around James Bay in Canada, the permafrost line has receded 130 km in the last 50 years. (Payette & Huppe 2010)<br />
  7. 7. Climate change will impact habitats<br />Montane and alpine habitats shift to higher elevations<br />Grassland habitat shifts complex, interact with grazing and farming<br />
  8. 8. Climate change impacts ecosystems<br />Fire regimes (fuel loads, ignition frequency)<br />Hydrologic cycles(vegetation changes, snowfall and snowmelt)<br />
  9. 9. Observed climate change impacts on species are consistent with predicted impacts<br />PhenologyWalther et al 2002Parmesan & Yohe 2003Doswald et al 2009<br />Range shiftsParmesan et al 1999Parmesan & Yohe 2003Tingley et al 2009<br />Other effectsLaurance 2008Boersma et al 2009<br />
  10. 10. Introduce methods to predict geographic ranges<br />
  11. 11. We can model the way in which current (and future) geographic ranges depend on climate<br />?<br />Bioclimatic envelope models based on Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) criteria<br />Habitat-based approach<br />
  12. 12. ?<br />Bioclimatic envelope models combine the answers to two simple questions<br />What are the climatic conditions in which a species is currently found?Climate data: PRISM, WorldClim, ClimateWizard Occurrence data: GBIF, Natural Heritage programs<br />Where will those conditions be found in the future?GCM predictions<br />
  13. 13. MaxEntprovides parsimonious estimation of bioclimatic envelopes<br />Machine learning algorithm to estimate geographic distributions under current and future conditions<br />Phillips et al 2006Baldwin & Bender 2007Phillips & Dudik 2008<br />?<br />
  14. 14. Bioclimatic models predict habitat loss in the American Pika (Ochotonaprinceps)<br />Regional losses of 53% to 71% across 5 regions<br /> (Calkins MS thesis, NMSU, 2010)<br />
  15. 15. Bioclimatic models predict patterns of habitat loss in European bats<br />Northern species more likely to suffer losses than temperate and Mediterranean speciesRebelo et al 2010<br />
  16. 16. A mixed approach predicts species distributions based on the distributions of habitats<br />Use MaxEnt to predict future distributions of habitat typesRelies on Gap Analysis Project landcover data<br />Overlay existing deductive animal distribution models on future habitat distributionsRelies on Gap Analysis Project animal distribution models<br />?<br />
  17. 17. Mixed approach predicts complex habitat loss pattern for swift fox (Vulpesvelox)<br />Complex response of grassland <br />habitats to future climate scenarios. <br />C3 grasses have advantage <br />at elevated CO2<br />C4 grasses prefer warmer <br />temperaturesRedman et al MS<br />
  18. 18. Discuss limitations<br />
  19. 19. These approaches have some limitations …<br />Predictions based on current distributions may be unreliable (Dormann et al 2009)<br />Climate-change-induced range shifts may “tear apart” current plant communities (habitats)<br />Species may not be able to disperse to new suitable areas (Midgley et al 2006)<br />
  20. 20. … but for now they are the best we have<br />We must use the best available tools to preserve the integrity of the biosphere<br />
  21. 21. Thanks to …<br /><ul><li>Oxford Round Table
  22. 22. My studentsMichael CalkinsJennifer RedmanRachel Guy
  23. 23. My colleaguesKen BoykinJennifer FreyGary Roemer</li>