Session 40 Anssi Lappalainen

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Outlook of the liner traffic at the Northern Baltic Sea in 2020 - Results from PENTA project

Outlook of the liner traffic at the Northern Baltic Sea in 2020 - Results from PENTA project

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  • 1. Outlook of the liner traffic at the Northern Baltic Sea in 2020 –Results from PENTA projectAnssi LappalainenTransportforum 201310.1.2013 Linköping University of Turku 1 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES
  • 2. Agenda•  Centre for Maritime Studies•  PENTA project•  Transport history•  Drivers of demand in cargo and passenger traffic•  Future expectations•  Conclusions and outlook University of Turku 2 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES
  • 3. Centre for Maritime Studies•  Founded in 1980•  Special unit of the University of Turku from 1984•  Located in four coastal cities in Finland –  Turku –  Rauma –  Pori –  Kotka•  Employ about 40 persons University of Turku 3 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES
  • 4. PENTA project•  PENTA project explores the alternatives of how the five Central Baltic ports together can face and better comprehend the challenges of today and in the future.•  Timetable: 01/2011 – 08/2013•  Funding: Central Baltic INTERREG IV A –programme, Ports of Stockholm, Helsinki, Turku and Naantali, and the Government of Estonia. University of Turku 4 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES
  • 5. PENTA project•  WP1 –  Project coordination•  WP2 –  Passenger and cargo flows, and estimations for future•  WP3 –  Noise as an environmental challenge•  WP4 –  Barriers in safety, security and administrative procedures University of Turku 5 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES
  • 6. PENTA ports 2010 2010 •  1,6 mln tonnes •  0,6 mln tonnes •  3,2 mln passengers •  2,4 mln passengers2010•  2,0 mln tonnes•  0,17 mln passengers 2010 •  2,8 mln tonnes •  6,9 mln passengers 2010 •  0,2 mln tonnes 2010 •  0,015 mln passengers •  0,29 mln tonnes •  0,9 mln passengers University of Turku6 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES
  • 7. Transport history University of Turku7 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES
  • 8. Transport history University of Turku8 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES
  • 9. Transport history University of Turku9 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES
  • 10. Transport history University of Turku10 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES
  • 11. Transport history University of Turku11 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES
  • 12. Transport history University of Turku12 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES
  • 13. Drivers of demand in cargo traffic•  Gross domestic product•  Consumer demand•  Economic structure•  Logistic system•  Mode characteristics University of Turku 13 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES
  • 14. Drivers of demand in passenger traffic University of Turku 14 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES
  • 15. Future expectations•  Cargo traffic –  GDP –  Trade between Russia and Germany –  Baltic States and Poland•  Amount of transported units –  20-30% growth by 2020 –  Increases faster than the volume of transported goods –  The share of fast moving consumer goods increases•  Transit traffic –  Decreses in BSR University of Turku 15 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES
  • 16. Future expectations•  Passenger traffic –  Increases in the long run –  Interests for entertainment and destination can change –  The gap between work-related trips and leisure cruises will be more visible –  Cost structure and the price level in Estonia are key issues•  Vessel traffic –  The future vessel size is more dependent on the development of passenger traffic –  The increasing demand for capacity between PENTA ports will be solved with higher frequency –  Same departure times of different shipowners are undesirable for cargo traffic University of Turku 16 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES
  • 17. Future expectations•  Sulphur directive –  The price of marine fuel is estimated to increase by 50-70% –  The costs of sea transports in BSR are estimated to increase up to 30% –  Road transportation from Finland to Europe is currently ~20% more expensive compared to sea transportation•  Russia –  Russian sea traffic rises from 540 million tonnes in 2011 to 700 million tonnes in 2015 and nearly 900 million tonnes by 2020 (Rosmorport) –  The capacity of Ust Luga +100% (2011-2015) –  The capacity of Saint Petersburg +30% (2011-2015) University of Turku 17 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES
  • 18. Conclusions and outlook•  The operational environment in 2020 –  Moderate economic growth in BSR –  Bunker costs doubles –  Sulphur directive takes effect as planned –  Relative share of road transport in BSR increases more than sea or rail transport –  Stronger focus on environmental issues with new legislations –  Significance of Russia increases in trade in BSR –  Growing Russian economy decreases traffic via PENTA ports –  Minor decrease in the number of ports in BSR University of Turku 18 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES
  • 19. Conclusions and outlook•  Traffic flows in 2020 –  STO-TKU •  Cargo traffic decreases moderately •  The amount transported units remains unchanged •  Passenger traffic increases mildly –  STO-HKI •  Cargo traffic increases slowly •  The number of transported units remains at the present level •  A small decrease in passenger traffic –  STO-TLL •  Freight traffic increases for both total volume and units •  Passenger traffic increases steadily University of Turku 19 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES
  • 20. Conclusions and outlook•  Traffic flows in 2020 –  KPS-PDS •  Cargo traffic increases but the relative share of transported units increases faster •  Passenger traffic remains very modest –  KPS-NLI •  Cargo traffic increases but the relative share of transported units increases faster •  Passenger traffic increases moderately –  HKI-TLL •  The strongest increase in cargo traffic among the routes between PENTA ports •  The increase of transported units is even faster •  Passenger traffic increases steadily University of Turku 20 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES
  • 21. Thank you for your attention!_____________________________________________Anssi Lappalainen | Project Manager | M.Sc. (Econ.)University of Turku | Centre for Maritime StudiesICT-building | Joukahaisenkatu 3-5 B | FI-20014Tel: +358 2 333 8172 | Mob: +358 40 779 9488anssi.lappalainen@utu.fi | http://mkk.utu.fi University of Turku21 CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES