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Finding Valuable Assets in the Emerging Markets - Interview: Natalia Gurushina, Immediate Former Head of Emerging Markets Strategy, Roubini Global Economics
Finding Valuable Assets in the Emerging Markets - Interview: Natalia Gurushina, Immediate Former Head of Emerging Markets Strategy, Roubini Global Economics
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Finding Valuable Assets in the Emerging Markets - Interview: Natalia Gurushina, Immediate Former Head of Emerging Markets Strategy, Roubini Global Economics

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For more information contact: emailus@marcusevans.com …

For more information contact: emailus@marcusevans.com

An interview with Natalia Gurushina who is the Immediate Former Head of Emerging Markets Strategy at Roubini Global Economics, a speaker at the marcus evans Emerging Market Investments Summit 2013 who shares her experience on the impact of currency wars on emerging market assets.

For more information contact: emailus@marcusevans.com

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  • 1. Finding Valuable Assets in the Emerging MarketsInterview with: Natalia Gurushina,Immediate Former Head ofEmerging Markets Strategy, RoubiniGlobal Economics“Emerging markets are no longer ascheap as they were a few years ago, soinvestors must really pay attention tocountry-specific fundamentals, riskexposure and also monitor correlationsin order to find pockets of value,”advises Natalia Gurushina, ImmediateFormer Head of Emerging MarketsStrategy, Roubini Global Economics.Gurushina is a speaker at the marcuse v a n s E m e r g i n g M a r k e tInvestments Summit 2013, inWarsaw, Poland, 3 - 4 June. Ahead ofthe Summit, she talks about the impactof currency wars and how to findvaluable assets in the emergingmarkets.Your presentation at the Summitwill focus on currency wars andtheir impact on emerging marketassets. What impact could theyhave? What message would you liketo give to emerging marketinvestors?The impact would differ depending onthe asset class. The idea I will bepushing through is that there are morecentral banks intervening in thecurrency markets than investors think –and not only in emerging markets. Manycentral banks use currencies to addressinflation and growth issues. Only a fewcountries actually allow the full extent ofthe appreciation/depreciation pressuresto go through the spot market. Lowinterest rates in G4 - a part of the“currency wars” battle-plans - willcontinue to stimulate capital flows intohigher-yielding assets in emergingmarkets and given the currentvaluations, I see a risk of a bubble inemerging market debt.How should investors positionthemselves?Right now it is still a good time to lookat idiosyncratic factors in emergingmarkets. Despite generally stretchedvaluations, a moderate growth/lowinflation environment creates pockets ofvalue along the yield curves in individualcountries, albeit not as many as before.We need to continue paying attention tothe dynamics of debt in relation to GDP,the fiscal accounts (which are a causefor concern in quite a few emergingmarkets) and the independence of localcentral banks (as this can affect inflationexpectations down the road).As regards emerging market foreignexchange, a very important aspect isthe size of carry in relation to theunderlying macroeconomic imbalances.To give you an example, even thoughTurkish local rates may seem high inabsolute terms, investors are barelycompensated for such risks as inflation,the current account deficit, local politicalrisks and foreign exchange mis-alignment. I think that the Hungarianforint is in the same “questionable”higher-yielding FX group.By contrast, investors in MXN still get a115bps extra-“cushion” as the same setof fundamentals warrants a lowerinterest rate differential with USD.What else should investors considerto minimise risk?In addition to the traditional approachto diversification, I think that investorsshould also look at correlations anddiversify their portfolio from that pointof view. Correlations are down rightnow, but still elevated compared to thepre-crisis period. Looking at correlationsand monitoring their changes is animportant tool for managing the riskexposure of the portfolio. Diversificationsimply along regional lines or even assetclass lines can often be misleading inthe current environment.Looking atcorrelationsandmonitoringtheir changesis animportanttool formanagingthe riskexposure ofthe portfolio
  • 2. The Investment Network –marcus evans Summits groupdelivers peer-to-peer informationon strategic matters, professionalt r e n d s a n d b r e a k t h r o u g hinnovations.Please note that the Summit is aclosed business event and thenumber of participants strictlylimited.About the Emerging Market Investments Summit 2013This unique forum will take place at the Warsaw Marriott Hotel, Warsaw, Poland,3 - 4 June 2013. Offering much more than any conference, exhibition or tradeshow, this exclusive meeting will bring together esteemed industry thought leadersand solution providers to a highly focused and interactive networking event. TheSummit includes presentations on pinpointing the most lucrative markets toaccumulate maximum returns, avoiding geopolitical risks and tackling overvaluationwhen investing in emerging markets.www.emisummit.comAbout marcus evans Summitsmarcus evans Summits are high level business forums for the world’s leading decision-makers to meet, learn and discussstrategies and solutions. Held at exclusive locations around the world, these events provide attendees with a unique opportunity toindividually tailor their schedules of keynote presentations, think tanks, seminars and one-on-one business meetings.For more information, please visit: www.marcusevans.comUpcoming EventsElite Summit - www.elitesummit.comEuropean Pensions & Investments Summit - www.epi-summit.comFoundations & Endowments Investment Summit - www.foundations-endowmentssummit.comUS Pensions Summit - www.uspensions-summit.comTo view the web version of this interview, please click here: www.emisummit.com/NataliaGurushinaContactSarin Kouyoumdjian-Gurunlian, Press Manager, marcus evans, SummitsDivisionTel: + 357 22 849 313Email: press@marcusevanscy.comFor more information please send an email to info@marcusevanscy.comAll rights reserved. The above content may be republished or reproduced. Kindlyinform us by sending an email to press@marcusevanscy.com

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