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Bracing for Balance Sheet Repair Mode - Presentation: Christian Menegatti, Roubini Global Economics - Elite Summit

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For more information contact: emailus@marcusevans.com …

For more information contact: emailus@marcusevans.com

Christian Menegatti who is the MD & Head of Global Economic Research at Roubini Global Economics shared her presentation entitled "Bracing for Balance Sheet Repair Mode: Pinpointing Growth Drivers amidst a Global Deleveraging Landscape" at the marcus evans Elite Summit.

Join the November 2014 Summit along with leading European family offices and global asset managers in an intimate environment for a focused discussion of key new drivers shaping wealth management strategies today.

For more information contact: emailus@marcusevans.com

Published in: Business, Technology

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  • 1. Christian Menegatti, Global Head of Economic Research May 2012© Roubini Global Economics Copyright 2012No reproducing or redistribution without written consent. Roubini Global Economicsroubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800
  • 2. Contents • 2012 Global Themes and Outlook • EZ: Lurching From Crisis to Crisis Before Getting There • US: Better But Not Cigar • China: An Unsustainable Broken Growth Model • Conclusionsroubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800 2
  • 3. roubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800
  • 4. Global Themes Balance-sheet repair in DMs is the theme of the day… or the decade… EZ balance of payment and growth crisis will continue as long as the adjustment remains asymmetric, there is no credible plan to arrest the current run on banks and to recapitalize banks, and there are no concrete moves towards deeper political and fiscal integration EM are slowing from an almost V-shaped recovery. EMEA is most exposed to Europe due to trade links and weaker balance sheets, but weaker demand, financing pressures will also hit Asia and LatAm, which are also exposed to the Chinese slowdown. Political gridlock and could delay policy action and result into policy mistakes, including in the U.S. (fiscal cliff) and China, which face election and political transitions, respectively. An oil price shock would stall global growth and raise the risk of recession. Geopolitical risks will keep oil prices elevated, weighing on consumption.roubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800 4
  • 5. Global Growth Forecasts Growth Inflation 2012 2013 2012 2013 U.S. 2.0 1.8 2.3 2.0 EZ -0.6 0.0 2.0 1.7 Japan 1.8 1.7 0.1 -0.2 China 8.1 7.8 3.3 3.8 G7 1.4 1.3 2.0 1.7 Advanced Economies 1.1 1.2 2.0 1.7 Emerging and Frontier Markets 5.5 5.7 5.3 5.2 Asia/Pacific 5.8 5.9 3.4 3.4 Emerging Asia 6.7 6.8 4.1 4.1 Latin America 3.9 4.0 8.7 8.1 Emerging Europe 3.0 3.2 5.9 6.4 Middle East and Africa 3.1 3.4 5.9 6.8 BRIC 6.8 6.9 4.5 4.9 World 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.5roubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800 5
  • 6. roubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800
  • 7. Debt Supercycles Source: Bridgewater Associatesroubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800 7
  • 8. Debt Supercycles Source: Bridgewater Associatesroubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800 8
  • 9. Debt Supercyclesroubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800 9
  • 10. Debt Supercycles Debt %GDP (Households and Business on right, Federal gov on left) 105% 80% 100% 70% 95% 60% 90% 50% 85% 40% 80% 30% 75% 20% 70% 65% 10% 60% 0% 1/1/2000 1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 Household Business Federal govroubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800 10
  • 11. Debt Levels in DMs Are Still High 1400 1200 1000 %GDP 800 600 400 200 0 Non-financial Corporate Financial Government Householdroubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800 11
  • 12. Balance Sheet Repair• EZ: sovereign and financial, will be ongoing for a long time and the ECB might be the only game in town for a while• U.S.: mainly in the household sector, eventually in the fiscal sector…watch the fiscal cliff in 2013• China: broken growth model, insolvent local governments and a forthcoming NPL problem for the banking sector roubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800 12
  • 13. roubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800
  • 14. A Far From Optimal Currency Area Requirements for an optimal currency area: EZ grade Pass Fail Monetary unions have to be associated with a full political union given the need for political legitimacy for monetary policies oriented towards price stability, and disciplined fiscal policy There has to be a high degree of business cycle synchronization; local/national specific shocks to output or growth need to be limited There has to be a high degree of capital mobility There has to be a high degree of labor market flexibility – both in terms of real wages and labor mobility – to deal with real asymmetric shocks There is the need for risk/burden sharing mechanism, also via the fiscal sectorroubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800 14
  • 15. Europe Is Just Returning To Normal 25 Normal Government Bond Yield 20 15 10 Abnormal 5 0 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 Italy Spain Portugal Ireland France Germany Source: IMF Europe’s longer history is continual war with outbreaks of peace. The EU (not the EZ) is a strong safeguard against a return to that “normal”. But the EU was difficult to sustain without a stable/fix exchange rate regime. Government bonds go through cycles of default, devaluation, and inflation. Not being paid for these risks from 1999 – 2008 was abnormal. Higher yields reflecting restructuring and currency risk premia are the New Normal, same as the Old Old Normal.
  • 16. A Remarkable -- Though Temporary -- Recovery in European Bank Debt Issuance in Jan, Feb and Mar Gross issuance by region/country of parent issuer (private banks only) - USD billion on left, EUR billion on rightDebt overall has bounced back but it is really a story about Germany and the core (and Switzerland) being more able to finance themselves and the peripheryand France still struggling. roubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800 16
  • 17. But Watch the Run Net issuance (USD billions, this is gross issuance less redemptions)roubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800 17
  • 18. It’s the Political Economy… If Greece ends the reform process it has undertaken, then I can’t see that the respective tranches [of aid] can be paid out. – Guido Westerwelle If Greece does not decide to stay in the eurozone we can’t force them to stay in it. – Wolfgang Schäuble If I had political responsibility, I would want to prepare myself for a plan B in which the eurozone is no longer necessarily composed of 17 members. – Peer Steinbrückroubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800 18
  • 19. Greece: In Free Fall • Syriza most likely to win in the June elections given momentum • Syriza will try to play hardball to get concessions on the MoU. Someone will have to blink… • A renegotiation of the Memorandum would set a precedent that the Troika might not be willing to accept • A marginal renegotiation won’t make a difference as Greece is in free fall, and will damage Syriza’s popularity…political risk and instability continues • …Greece exits in an amicable divorce fashion Better an end with horror, than a horror without end. – Sophie Schollroubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800 19
  • 20. The Pain in Spain Primary Balance Gaproubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800 20
  • 21. The Pain in Spain Resource Gap Analysis, Debt Stabilization at 2011 Levelsroubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800 21
  • 22. What’s Needed (Beside Official Money) 1. More realistic fiscal consolidation pace for the periphery 2. Room for additional monetary easing by and independent ECB 3. A gradual weakening of the Euro 4. Recapitalize banks early and properly 5. Slower pace of fiscal consolidation, German policies to boost domestic spending 6. Financing infrastructure spending for the EZ periphery 7. Continue structural reform 8. Fiscal union and debt mutualization process as economic and political union deepens 9. A plan for an orderly divorce of EZ members who cannot grow without exiting the EZroubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800 22
  • 23. What’s Ahead for the EZ• (More) Defaults and exits of insolvent countries – GR and PT• Structural reforms and ambitious fiscal targets (austerity) in Italy and Spain that imply sharp contractions and worsening of debt ratios• Continued balance of payment crisis• Risks of loss of market access for Italy and Spain• Risk of restructurings in Italy and Spain• Political/Fiscal union? Debt mutualization? EZ wide banking supervision, regulation, deposit insurance? Reduction in the power of national sovereigns? roubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800 23
  • 24. roubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800
  • 25. U.S. Macro: Better, But Not Done/Started Deleveraging• After ending the year with a 3% real GDP growth rate in Q4, the United States is shining in terms of macro performance, at least with respect to the EZ.• Better economic data in the U.S. have contributed to a significant improvement in sentiment throughout Q4 2011 and the beginning of 2012.• Labor markets have ended 2011 and started 2012 on a very encouraging footing, which could eventually lead to stronger labor income growth and put the economy on a positive feedback loop.• There might be a significant fiscal policy drag ahead and a Fed that might act too late: ie policy mistakes roubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800 25
  • 26. Slack in Labor Markets 1.02 1.01 Employment Peak Payrolls = 1 1 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 Months Since Employment Peak 2007 2001 1990 1980-81 1974roubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800 26
  • 27. Housing Matters… 25% 6% 20% 4% 15% 10% 2% 5% 0% 0% -5% -2% -10% -15% -4% -20% -25% -6% Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Growth in US Household Net Worth, Y/Y (Lhs) Growth in US Real GDP, Y/Y (Rhs)roubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800 27
  • 28. Central Banks Coming to the Rescue BOJ Balance Sheet Expansion Fed Balance Sheet Expansion 35000 2400000 30000 2200000 2000000 25000 1800000 20000 1600000 15000 1400000 1200000 10000 1000000 5000 800000 0 600000roubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800 28
  • 29. 10 12 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 1/1/1990 1/1/1991 1/1/1992 1/1/1993 1/1/1994 1/1/1995 1/1/1996 1/1/1997 1/1/1998 1/1/1999 1/1/2000 1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 Japan Fiscal Balance (% of GDP inverted) 1/1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1/1/1999roubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800 1/1/2000 1/1/2001 1/1/2002 Signs of a Very Long Deleveraging Ahead? 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006 1/1/2007 US Fiscal Balance (% of GDP inverted) 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/201029
  • 30. Central Banks Coming to the Rescue (sort of…) US Japan Source: Bridgewater Associatesroubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800 30
  • 31. Central Banks Coming to the Rescue US Japan Source: Bridgewater Associatesroubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800 31
  • 32. roubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800
  • 33. Getting a Handle on the Problem • China’s surge in investment from 2008 coincided with a decline in its marginal product of capital and a massive increase in its debt-to-GDP ratio. • Its marginal product of capital fell from an average of 1.0 in the first seven years of the decade to 0.75 from 2008 through 2010. • After accounting for off-balance sheet and shadow bank lending, we estimate that China’s outstanding domestic debt increased from 164% of GDP in 2008 to 210% in 2010.roubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800 33
  • 34. Getting a Handle on the Problem • Switch from export-led to investment led growth model • Reinvesting 50% of income persistently in a productive way is mission impossible • Mismatch between return horizon from infrastructure investment and maturity profile of liabilities (bullet loans) • NPL problem waiting to surface in the 2014-2016 period • Financial repression and bailouts can kick the can down the road further, but rebalancing might be more costly later… you can turn off the investment led engine quite fast, but you cannot turn on the domestic demand and open the capital account as fast…roubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800 34
  • 35. Precedents Suggest Chinese Slowdown • Where I/GDP has peaked, growth has slowed • China is near this structural turning point Growth • Current account surplus and financial repression Country Peak Year Before Growth After will prevent liquidity crisis but not domestic banking Hong Kong 1997 4.9 1.3 problems Indonesia 1996 7.1 0.4 Malaysia 1995 9.3 5.0 Thailand 1995 9.0 0.6 South Korea 1991 9.7 7.3 Japan 1990 5.1 1.5 Singapore 1984 8.7 5.8 Philippines 1983 4.6 0.0Source: National Statistics, Gapminder, RGE.Note: average growth rates 5 years before/after
  • 36. roubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800
  • 37. Conclusions Deleveraging cycles need to be managed and offset by policy The path of growth is policy dependent as balance sheet repair continues and the private sector comes back Balance sheet repair implies a rebalancing in the global economy that will see growth rates much slower than the boom years Understanding rebalancing dynamics is key – not every country is in deleveraging mode: need for a holistic approach Understanding policy and political risk is key: potential high impact on productivity Understanding demographics is keyroubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800 37
  • 38. roubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800
  • 39. Roubini Global Economics Offices Roubini Global Economics Corporate Headquarters/The Americas 95 Morton Street, 6th Floor New York, New York 10014 Tel: 212.645.0010 Fax: 212.645.0023 americas@roubini.com RGE Europe, Middle East, Africa and Asia 174-177 High Holborn, 7th Floor London, WC1V 7AA, United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800 Fax: +44 (0) 207 836 5362 europe@roubini.com asia@roubini.com RGE India A-11, Kailash Colony, Suite 210/211 Chintels House New Delhi, 110 048, India Tel: +91 11 29248620 / 1/ 2 india@roubini.com Editorial Suggestions To suggest new coverage, resources or content to RGE, e-mail our research team at editor@roubini.com. General Information RGE welcomes your feedback! Please send us your comments or questions via e-mail at americas@roubini.com. Technical Support For technical support or questions about using our site, please contact support@roubini.com.roubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800 39
  • 40. Disclaimer/Terms & Conditions http://www.roubini.com/terms-and-conditions.php RGE analysis is the property of Roubini Global Economics, LLC for the internal use of RGE clients. Any redistribution, including summarizations or synopses, is expressly prohibited without prior agreement from RGE. All rights reserved, Roubini Global Economics, LLC. For questions about reprints or permission to excerpt or redistribute RGE content, clients should contact their RGE account representative. Disclaimer of Liability and Warranty. • RGE’s disclaimers of liability in this Section are in addition to any other disclaimers elsewhere. • RGE has the right, but not the obligation, to monitor, modify, restrict the contribution of and/or remove User-Supplied Content, in RGEs sole discretion. RGE has no liability or responsibility to Users for performance or nonperformance of such activities. RGE is not responsible to you for your reliance on or use of any content or materials constituting all or part of any RGE Content, any User-Supplied Content, or any other aspect of the Service. You understand and agree that any loss or damage of any kind that occurs as a result of the use of any User-Supplied Content that you access through your use of the Service, is your sole risk and responsibility. By viewing the Service, you may be exposed to content that you rely upon to your detriment. You take sole responsibility for such exposure and reliance. • Because user authentication on the Internet is difficult, RGE cannot and does not confirm that each User is who they claim to be. Because we do not and can not be involved in user-to-user dealings, nor do we control the behavior of participants on any portion of the Service, you release RGE (and our licensors, agents and employees) from claims, demands and damages (actual and consequential, direct and indirect) of every kind and nature, known and unknown, suspected and unsuspected, disclosed and undisclosed, arising out of or in any way connected with any dispute among or between you and one or more Users. If you are a California resident, you waive California Civil Code Section 1542, which says: "A general release does not extend to claims which the creditor does not know or suspect to exist in his favor at the time of executing the release, which if known by him must have materially affected his settlement with the debtor." • THE SERVICE IS PROVIDED ON AN "AS IS" BASIS WITHOUT ANY WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND. RGE, TO THE FULLEST EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW, DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED.roubini.com | americas@roubini.com Tel: 212.645.0010 | europe@roubini.com / asia@roubini.com Tel: +44 (0) 207 420 2800 40

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