NALEO - Turning Numbers Into Clout
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Presentation on the 2012 Latino Vote by Arturo Vargas, Executive Director of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Educational Fund.

Presentation on the 2012 Latino Vote by Arturo Vargas, Executive Director of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Educational Fund.

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  • Obama won Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada; giving Obama a massive head-start. Clinton then won Florida and Michigan handily, but both states were stripped off their DNCC delegates for moving their nominating primaries to January – Obama wasn’t On Super ”duper” Tuesday, California had largest payout – 370 delegates. Based on our analysis, Obama may have narrowly won CA if it weren’t for strong Latino voter support for Clinton. This win kept her campaign alive, allowing for one of the longest primary battles in history. __________________The Florida GOP nomination primary proved to be a vital win for McCain, and provided the momentum his campaign needed heading into Super Tuesday, after which he emerged as the presumed nominee. Although McCain won five points ahead of Romney, analysis by the NALEO Educational Fund using exit poll data shows that if no Latino had voted in that election, Romney would have won by several percentage points.__________________9.7 million Latinos voted in November– 28% more than 2004. The non-Latino vote increased by 3%.Latino voters comprised 7.4% of all voters in the 2008 general election – up from 6% in 2004.Decisive role in CO and NM; growing influence in IN and VA.
  • 6.6 million Latinos vote – 18.8% more than 2006
  • Yaeshora ¡HAGASE CONTAR! campaign was second largest effort after Census BureauMedia highlights:22-minute Census special program, hosted by Maria Elena Salinas, aired twice on all Univision stations.Over 26,000 PSAs aired.More than 50 local community events across the nation
  • Yaeshora ¡HAGASE CONTAR! campaign was second largest effort after Census BureauMedia highlights:22-minute Census special program, hosted by Maria Elena Salinas, aired twice on all Univision stations.Over 26,000 PSAs aired.More than 50 local community events across the nation
  • Some of the states with the largest increase in the Latino population are also states gaining seats in Congress following reapportionment. Some states may have lost seats if not for Latino population growth.
  • California growth is massive – increase their share of the vote by 4.8%
  • Latino potential electorate is growing rapidly, and more Latinos vote with each election.However, the gap between Latino and non-Latino voter turnout persists – we only see incremental gains in the effort to close the gap.

NALEO - Turning Numbers Into Clout Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Latino Political Power:
    Turning Numbers into Clout
    Arturo Vargas
    Executive Director
    NALEO Educational Fund
    San Antonio, Texas
    June 23, 2011
  • 2. 2008 Presidential Elections
    Reapportionment
    GOP Latino voters deliver critical win to McCain in Florida.
    Democratic Latino voters save Hilary Clinton’s primary campaign.
    Record Latino turnout – 28% increase over 2004.
    Latinos reshape the political map, including those with emerging Latino communities.
    Assoc. Press
  • 3. 2010 Midterm Elections
    Reapportionment
    NALEO Educational Fund projects 6.5 million Latinos will vote – 6.6 million do.
    Latino voters deliver victory to U.S. Senators Harry Reid and Michael Bennet.
    Several GOP Latino milestones:
    • Marco Rubio elected to U.S. Senate
    • 4. First Latino Governor of NV
    • 5. First elected Latina Governor of any state (NM)
    • 6. Latino GOP Members of Congress increased from 3 to 7, including the first Latino U.S. Representatives from Idaho and Washington.
  • 2010 Census – Latino Growth
    Reapportionment
    The overall population increases by 10%. Latino population grows 43%, and reaches 50.5 million mark.
    Latinos are 56% of America’s growth.
    Latinos prevent net population decline in IL, NJ, NY, & other states.
    South sees dramatic Latino growth – NC Latino population doubles (111%).
    Texas sees largest pop. increase in nation – 4.3 million. Latinos account for 65% of that growth.
  • 7. 2010 Census – Latino Youth
    Reapportionment
    On April 1, 2010, almost 1 in 4 youth (under 18) in the United States was Latino. 
     
    More than half the youth in California and New Mexico are Latino.
     
    About  40% of Arizona and Nevada youth are Latino.
    In 2009, 92% of Latinos under 18 years of age were born in the United States.
  • 8. Decennial Reapportionment
    Reapportionment
  • 9. 2012 Projected Latino Vote
  • 10. 2012 Projected Latino Vote
  • 11. Growth, and Continued Need
    Latino CVAP, Registration, and Turnout in General Elections