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Slides from IEA Medium-Term Oil Market Report


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Charts and graphs slide presentation used to announce the International Energy Agency's Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) at a London conference on May 14, 2013. The new MTOMR report calls the …

Charts and graphs slide presentation used to announce the International Energy Agency's Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) at a London conference on May 14, 2013. The new MTOMR report calls the abundance of American shale oil a "supply shock" for the worldwide oil market. The report also predicts American imports from OPEC countries will decrease by nearly 40% in the next five years (see the last slide).

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  • 1. l h l d ilPlatts 6th Annual Crude Oil SummitLondon, 14 May 2013 © OECD/IEA 2013© OECD/IEA 2013
  • 2. A pivotal time in oil markets7.0mb/d Medium-Term Oil Market Balance4. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Implied OPEC Spare Capacity World Demand Growth World SupplyCapacity Growth© OECD/IEA 2013
  • 3. Demand: rise of the non-OECD regionGlobal Oil Demand Growth7.5%2.5%5.0%-2.5%0.0%-5.0%2000 2004 2008 2012 2016OECD Non-OECD© OECD/IEA 2013
  • 4. Transport still drives oil use……but transport gas is around the cornerGlobal Road Transport Sector Gasoline Demand kb/dGlobal Road Transport Sector60%80%100%Gasoline Demand, kb/d15 0000%20%40%10 0000%1990 2000 2010 2015 2018Gasoline Diesel Natural gas LPG Others5 0001998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018OECD Non-OECD© OECD/IEA 2013
  • 5. US & Iraq lead supply growthmb/dGlobal Liquids Growth 2012- US Light Tight OilNGLs Non-ConvBiofuels Processing Gain2.32.30* Non-OPEC Total* OPEC crude is capacity additionsO C c ude s capac ty add t o sGlobal Refinery processing gains included in Non-OPEC© OECD/IEA 2013
  • 6. New trends in capital expendituresTight oil deepwater spending on the riseTight oil, deepwater spending on the riseAnnual Capex by Oil Type50060080%90%100%%)Annual Capex by Oil Type30040040%50%60%70%$Billione of Capex (%Total Capex (RHS)OtherOil SandsDeepwaterTight Oil1002000%10%20%30%$Shar22%16%7%14%-0%2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020Source: IEA Analysis of Rystad Energy.  Oil deposits only.© OECD/IEA 2013
  • 7. Non-OPEC supply: West Side story1 4mb/dNon-OPEC Supply - Yearly Change0.61.01.4-0.20.2-1.0-0.61995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016NAM LAM OECD EUR FSU ChinaAfrica PG & Biofuels Other Non-OPEC Total© OECD/IEA 2013
  • 8. OPEC capacity growth hits hurdlesGrowth now forecast at 1.75 mb/d, to 36.75 mb/dmb/d Change in OPEC Crude Oil0 Change in OPEC Crude OilProduction Capacity0 6-0.4- 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Iran IraqUAE Saudi ArabiaOth T t l OPECOther Total OPEC© OECD/IEA 2013
  • 9. Mid. East leads OPEC capacity growthIraq, Saudi Arabia and UAE offset Iran declineIncremental OPEC CrudeP d ti C it 2012 18LibNigeriaUAEAngolaIraqProduction Capacity 2012-18E dQatarAlgeriaKuwaitVenezuelaLibya-1.2 -0.8 -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6IranSaudi ArabiaEcuadormb/d© OECD/IEA 2013
  • 10. Biofuels supplies grow to 2.4 mb/d2 5mb/d1.52.02.50 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Rest of Global Biofuels OECD EUR BiofuelsBrazil Biofuels US BiofuelsBrazil Biofuels US Biofuels© OECD/IEA 2013
  • 11. Rise of the non-OECD refining titansGlobal CDU capacity seen up by 9.5 mb/d; refiningcapacity gets more sophisticatedRegional Share of CDU ExpansionsChina45%OtherAsia14%LatinAmerica14%14%MiddleEast22%Other5%© OECD/IEA 2013China leads CDU additions
  • 12. N. American refining: focus onupgrading & desulpherisation0.5mb/d NorthAmerican Capacity Additions0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Crude Distillation Upgrading Desulphurisation© OECD/IEA 2013Latin America still an import magnet
  • 13. Crude trade contracts, flows shiftAtlantic‐to‐Pacific trade edges upAtlantic‐to‐Pacific trade edges upCrude Exports in 2018 and Growth in 2012-18 for Key Trade Routes*(million barrels per day)* E l d I t R i l T d* Excludes Intra-Regional TradeOECDEurope0.3 (+0.1)2.9(-1.4)3.1(-0.6) 3.9(-0.9)0.3(-0.8)ChinaEurope1.3(-0.3)1.4 (+0.7)OECDPacific0.7(+0.3)( )NorthAmerica( )2.91.6 (0.3)1.2 (+0.4)- (+0.8)6.2(+0.8)Other Asia(-1)0.5(+0.4)© OECD/IEA 20130.5Red number in brackets denotes growth in period 2011-18 (+0)
  • 14. N. American imports plungeOrigin of North American Crude Imports in 2012 and 2018( )1.10.320120.30.22018(million barrels per day) East Latin America Africa Others Middle East Latin America Africa Others© OECD/IEA 2013