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Carpe Diem:
LNG Exports Are America’s
Once-in-a-Generation
Opportunity
White Paper By
APRIL 2015
  1	
  
Introduction	
  
	
  
The	
  United	
  States	
  can	
  be	
  a	
  global	
  energy	
  leader	
  by	
  exporting	
  a	
  share	
  of	
  our	
  abundant	
  natural	
  
gas	
  supplies	
  without	
  sacrificing	
  the	
  competitive	
  advantage	
  enjoyed	
  by	
  domestic	
  manufacturers.	
  
But	
  we	
  need	
  to	
  act	
  soon.	
  	
  
	
  
The	
  enormous	
  reserves	
  of	
  natural	
  gas	
  in	
  the	
  United	
  States	
  have	
  dramatically	
  changed	
  the	
  global	
  
energy	
  equation.	
  The	
  Potential	
  Gas	
  Committee’s1
	
  (PGC)	
  freshly	
  issued	
  biennial	
  report	
  has	
  
yielded	
  for	
  the	
  sixth	
  time	
  in	
  a	
  row	
  a	
  record	
  natural	
  gas	
  resource	
  assessment.	
  The	
  bottom	
  line:	
  
U.S.	
  natural	
  gas	
  consumption	
  in	
  2014	
  totaled	
  27	
  trillion	
  cubic	
  feet	
  (Tcf),	
  yet	
  the	
  total	
  volume	
  of	
  
U.S.	
  natural	
  gas	
  recoverable	
  with	
  existing	
  technology	
  is	
  2,853	
  Tcf	
  —	
  more	
  than	
  100	
  times	
  
greater.	
  	
  	
  
	
  
In	
  addition,	
  the	
  U.S.	
  Energy	
  Information	
  Administration’s	
  (EIA)	
  2015	
  Annual	
  Energy	
  Outlook	
  
projects	
  increased	
  domestic	
  natural	
  gas	
  production	
  and	
  stable	
  prices	
  for	
  decades	
  to	
  come.	
  
While	
  some	
  continue	
  to	
  call	
  for	
  restrictions	
  on	
  liquefied	
  natural	
  gas	
  (LNG)	
  exports,	
  these	
  latest	
  
figures	
  provide	
  more	
  evidence	
  that	
  we	
  have	
  an	
  opportunity	
  to	
  reap	
  all	
  of	
  the	
  economic,	
  
geopolitical	
  and	
  environmental	
  benefits	
  of	
  LNG	
  exports,	
  while	
  continuing	
  to	
  fuel	
  a	
  
manufacturing	
  renaissance	
  at	
  home.	
  
	
  
The	
  markets	
  are	
  giving	
  us	
  the	
  same	
  message.	
  Royal	
  Dutch	
  Shell	
  announced	
  its	
  intention	
  to	
  
acquire	
  BG	
  Group	
  for	
  $70	
  billion,	
  with	
  analysts	
  calling	
  the	
  move	
  primarily	
  a	
  bet	
  on	
  robust	
  global	
  
trade	
  in	
  LNG.	
  Further,	
  even	
  in	
  an	
  environment	
  of	
  soft	
  global	
  oil	
  prices,	
  companies	
  have	
  
maintained	
  their	
  efforts	
  to	
  gain	
  approval	
  from	
  the	
  Federal	
  Energy	
  Regulatory	
  Commission	
  
(FERC)	
  for	
  LNG	
  export	
  facilities.	
  But	
  the	
  global	
  demand	
  for	
  LNG	
  is	
  not	
  infinite.	
  	
  Many	
  countries	
  
are	
  making	
  plans	
  to	
  compete.	
  The	
  time	
  for	
  the	
  U.S.	
  to	
  act	
  is	
  now.	
  
	
  
ANGA	
  urges	
  the	
  Department	
  of	
  Energy	
  (DOE)	
  to	
  move	
  forward	
  as	
  quickly	
  as	
  possible	
  to	
  approve	
  
all	
  terminals	
  now	
  in	
  its	
  queue,	
  and	
  we	
  ask	
  Congress	
  to	
  enact	
  legislation	
  that	
  enjoys	
  strong	
  
bipartisan	
  support	
  to	
  help	
  expedite	
  and	
  provide	
  certainty	
  to	
  the	
  permitting	
  process.	
  
	
  
This	
  paper	
  details	
  the	
  many	
  advantages	
  of	
  exporting	
  LNG	
  and	
  addresses	
  the	
  overheated	
  
rhetoric	
  by	
  some	
  opponents.	
  It	
  also	
  outlines	
  the	
  domestic	
  manufacturing	
  opportunities,	
  the	
  
energy	
  security	
  benefits	
  for	
  America	
  and	
  its	
  allies,	
  and	
  the	
  environmental	
  improvements	
  that	
  
can	
  be	
  made	
  by	
  exporting	
  natural	
  gas.	
  
	
  
Thanks	
  to	
  the	
  shale	
  revolution,	
  America	
  faces	
  a	
  future	
  of	
  energy	
  abundance.	
  It	
  should	
  share	
  this	
  
bounty	
  with	
  the	
  world.	
  The	
  United	
  States	
  can	
  be	
  a	
  global	
  energy	
  leader	
  without	
  sacrificing	
  its	
  
domestic	
  advantage.	
  For	
  its	
  citizens	
  and	
  its	
  allies,	
  the	
  United	
  States	
  should	
  seize	
  the	
  day.	
  
	
  
	
  
1
	
  A	
  group	
  of	
  highly	
  knowledgeable	
  and	
  experienced	
  geologists,	
  engineers	
  and	
  others	
  who,	
  since	
  1964,	
  have	
  
assessed	
  the	
  technically	
  recoverable	
  natural	
  gas	
  resource	
  base	
  in	
  the	
  United	
  States	
  on	
  a	
  biennial	
  basis.	
  The	
  
Colorado	
  School	
  of	
  Mines	
  (CSM)	
  leads	
  the	
  work	
  of	
  the	
  PGC.	
  	
  	
  
  2	
  
Supply:	
  	
  Does	
  the	
  U.S.	
  Have	
  Enough	
  Natural	
  Gas	
  to	
  Use	
  at	
  Home	
  and	
  to	
  Export?	
  
	
  
Can	
  the	
  U.S.	
  export	
  natural	
  gas	
  without	
  “giving	
  away	
  our	
  domestic	
  advantage”?	
  The	
  simple	
  
answer	
  is	
  yes.	
  U.S.	
  natural	
  gas	
  supply	
  is	
  vast	
  and	
  recoverable	
  enough	
  to	
  support	
  significant	
  
market	
  growth	
  across	
  the	
  economy,	
  including	
  power	
  generation,	
  manufacturing,	
  transportation	
  
and	
  exports.	
  	
  
	
  
The	
  most	
  recent	
  PGC	
  projections	
  join	
  a	
  host	
  of	
  credible	
  assessments	
  from	
  industry,	
  academia	
  
and	
  government	
  showing	
  a	
  range	
  of	
  technically	
  recoverable	
  gas	
  from	
  2,266	
  to	
  3,933	
  Tcf	
  (Figure	
  
1).	
  	
  Of	
  these	
  reserves,	
  ICF	
  International	
  estimates	
  that	
  more	
  than	
  1,500	
  Tcf	
  of	
  natural	
  gas	
  is	
  
available	
  at	
  $5/MMBTU	
  or	
  less.2
	
  
	
  
The	
  long-­‐term	
  advantage	
  our	
  nation	
  enjoys	
  as	
  a	
  result	
  of	
  this	
  abundance	
  was	
  confirmed	
  by	
  
PGC’s	
  most	
  recent	
  findings.	
  “Our	
  present	
  assessment,	
  strengthened	
  by	
  robust	
  domestic	
  
production	
  levels	
  and	
  reserves	
  bookings,	
  demonstrates	
  an	
  exceptionally	
  strong	
  and	
  optimistic	
  
gas	
  supply	
  picture	
  for	
  the	
  nation,”	
  said	
  Dr.	
  John	
  B.	
  Curtis,	
  the	
  committee’s	
  top	
  geologist	
  and	
  
Professor	
  Emeritus	
  of	
  Geology	
  and	
  Geological	
  Engineering	
  at	
  the	
  Colorado	
  School	
  of	
  Mines.	
  
	
  
Figure	
  1:	
  Technically	
  Recoverable	
  Reserves	
  
	
  
2
	
  ICF	
  International,	
  “U.S.	
  LNG	
  Exports:	
  Impacts	
  on	
  Energy	
  Markets	
  and	
  the	
  Economy,”	
  May	
  2013,	
  45.	
  
  3	
  
Since	
  2005,	
  U.S.	
  natural	
  gas	
  production	
  has	
  increased	
  41	
  percent.	
  The	
  EIA	
  2015	
  Annual	
  Energy	
  
Outlook	
  projects	
  a	
  further	
  48	
  percent	
  increase	
  in	
  production	
  from	
  2010	
  to	
  2035	
  (Figure	
  2).3
	
  EIA	
  
confirms	
  in	
  its	
  report	
  that	
  increased	
  natural	
  gas	
  production	
  will	
  support	
  growing	
  demand	
  from	
  
LNG	
  exports.4
	
  	
  	
  
	
  
Figure	
  2:	
  U.S.	
  Natural	
  Gas	
  Production	
  
Natural	
  Gas	
  Production	
  (TCF):	
  Reference	
  
	
  
	
  
Given	
  the	
  broad	
  and	
  data-­‐driven	
  consensus	
  affirming	
  our	
  nation’s	
  enormous	
  natural	
  gas	
  
supplies,	
  suggestions	
  by	
  some	
  opponents	
  of	
  LNG	
  exports	
  —	
  groups	
  like	
  America’s	
  Energy	
  
Advantage	
  and	
  the	
  Industrial	
  Energy	
  Consumers	
  of	
  America	
  (IECA)	
  —	
  that	
  the	
  resource	
  is	
  
inadequate	
  to	
  support	
  both	
  domestic	
  needs	
  and	
  LNG	
  exports	
  simply	
  have	
  no	
  basis	
  in	
  fact.	
  
	
  
Just	
  a	
  few	
  years	
  ago,	
  energy	
  experts	
  expected	
  the	
  U.S.	
  to	
  become	
  a	
  major	
  importer	
  of	
  natural	
  
gas.	
  The	
  shale	
  revolution	
  has	
  virtually	
  eliminated	
  the	
  need	
  for	
  imports	
  and	
  EIA	
  now	
  projects	
  
America	
  will	
  instead	
  be	
  a	
  net	
  natural	
  gas	
  exporter	
  by	
  2017.5
	
  	
  	
  
	
  
3
	
  EIA,	
  “Annual	
  Energy	
  Outlook	
  2015:	
  Total	
  Energy	
  Supply,	
  Disposition,	
  and	
  Price	
  Summary,	
  Reference	
  Case	
  Table,”	
  
May,	
  2015,	
  accessed	
  April	
  15,	
  2015.	
  	
  	
  
4
	
  U.S.	
  Energy	
  Information	
  Administration,	
  “Effect	
  of	
  Increased	
  Levels	
  of	
  Liquefied	
  Natural	
  Gas	
  Exports	
  on	
  U.S.	
  
Energy	
  Markets,”	
  October	
  2014,	
  12,	
  http://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/fe/pdf/lng.pdf.	
  
5
	
  EIA,	
  “Annual	
  Energy	
  Outlook	
  2015,”	
  April,	
  2015,	
  ES-­‐1.	
  
0	
  
10	
  
20	
  
30	
  
40	
  
2000	
   2005	
   2010	
   2015	
   2020	
   2025	
   2030	
   2035	
  
AEO	
  2010	
   AEO	
  2015	
   Historical	
  
  4	
  
Source:	
  DOE	
  &	
  FERC	
  
The	
  Need	
  for	
  Action	
  
	
  
The	
  LNG	
  export	
  licensing	
  and	
  permitting	
  process	
  involves	
  both	
  FERC	
  and	
  DOE.	
  The	
  FERC	
  process	
  
is	
  extensive,	
  predictable,	
  requires	
  significant	
  investment	
  from	
  the	
  applicant	
  and	
  provides	
  
meaningful	
  opportunity	
  for	
  public	
  comment	
  and	
  input.	
  	
  	
  
	
  
While	
  DOE	
  made	
  improvements	
  to	
  its	
  permitting	
  procedures	
  in	
  August	
  2014,	
  the	
  need	
  for	
  
certainty	
  and	
  quicker	
  action	
  remains.	
  Applications	
  continue	
  to	
  languish	
  far	
  too	
  long	
  and	
  the	
  U.S.	
  
stands	
  to	
  gain	
  immensely	
  from	
  expediting	
  these	
  processes.	
  Applicants	
  will	
  be	
  better	
  able	
  to	
  
estimate	
  their	
  costs,	
  construction	
  timelines	
  and	
  labor	
  needs	
  if	
  they	
  can	
  more	
  accurately	
  
estimate	
  the	
  time	
  these	
  licensing	
  processes	
  will	
  take.	
  Figure	
  3	
  shows	
  that	
  those	
  terminals	
  that	
  
have	
  received	
  FERC	
  approval	
  all	
  applied	
  to	
  DOE	
  three	
  to	
  five	
  years	
  ago.	
  More	
  than	
  half	
  of	
  the	
  
dozens	
  of	
  applications	
  awaiting	
  approval	
  were	
  sent	
  to	
  the	
  federal	
  government	
  in	
  2012	
  or	
  
earlier.	
  	
  
	
  
Figure	
  3:	
  DOE	
  Approval	
  Timeline	
  
	
  
Terminal	
  
Applied	
  to	
  
DOE	
  
Final	
  
Approval	
  at	
  
FERC	
  
Final	
  
Approval	
  at	
  
DOE	
  
Days	
  between	
  
FERC	
  and	
  DOE	
  
Approvals	
  
	
  	
  Sabine	
  Pass	
   7-­‐Sep-­‐10	
   16-­‐Apr-­‐12	
   7-­‐Aug-­‐12	
   113	
  
	
  	
  Freeport	
  LNG	
   17-­‐Dec-­‐10	
   30-­‐Jul-­‐14	
   20-­‐Nov-­‐14	
   113	
  
	
  	
  Carib	
  Energy	
   20-­‐Oct-­‐11	
   N/A	
   20-­‐Sep-­‐14	
   N/A	
  
Cameron	
  LNG	
   21-­‐Dec-­‐11	
   19-­‐Jun-­‐14	
   16-­‐Sep-­‐14	
   89	
  
Cove	
  Point	
   3-­‐Oct-­‐11	
   30-­‐Sep-­‐14	
   Still	
  waiting	
  
	
  
Corpus	
  Christi	
   31-­‐Aug-­‐12	
   20-­‐Dec-­‐14	
   Still	
  waiting	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
An	
  unpredictable	
  licensing	
  process	
  could	
  keep	
  U.S.	
  LNG	
  exports	
  from	
  entering	
  the	
  global	
  
market.	
  Proposed	
  global	
  LNG	
  capacity	
  outside	
  the	
  United	
  States	
  is	
  approximately	
  50	
  billion	
  
cubic	
  feet	
  per	
  day	
  (Bcf/d).	
  However,	
  recent	
  studies	
  project	
  global	
  demand	
  for	
  natural	
  gas	
  to	
  
increase	
  between	
  18	
  and	
  38	
  Bcf/d	
  by	
  2025.	
  Given	
  the	
  disparity	
  between	
  projected	
  demand	
  and	
  
the	
  number	
  of	
  facilities	
  proposed	
  worldwide,	
  the	
  window	
  of	
  opportunity	
  for	
  the	
  U.S.	
  to	
  capture	
  
some	
  of	
  this	
  global	
  demand	
  is	
  narrow	
  (Figure	
  4).	
  Further,	
  LNG	
  export	
  facilities	
  cost	
  billions	
  of	
  
dollars	
  and	
  take	
  several	
  years	
  to	
  build.	
  	
  	
  
	
  
  5	
  
Figure	
  4:	
  Global	
  LNG	
  Export	
  Capacity	
  and	
  Demand
	
  
We	
  urge	
  the	
  administration	
  to	
  continue	
  finding	
  ways	
  to	
  move	
  applications	
  more	
  quickly.	
  We	
  
also	
  believe	
  it	
  is	
  important	
  for	
  Congress	
  to	
  enact	
  legislation	
  to	
  expedite	
  and	
  provide	
  certainty	
  to	
  
the	
  approval	
  process.	
  The	
  House	
  has	
  passed	
  a	
  bill	
  (HR	
  351)	
  that	
  would	
  require	
  DOE	
  to	
  process	
  
permits	
  within	
  30	
  days	
  of	
  FERC	
  approval,	
  while	
  Senate	
  legislation	
  (S	
  33)	
  sets	
  a	
  45-­‐day	
  approval	
  
window	
  for	
  DOE.	
  	
  	
  
Both	
  measures	
  enjoy	
  strong	
  bipartisan	
  support.	
  And,	
  Energy	
  Secretary	
  Ernest	
  Moniz	
  has	
  stated	
  
that	
  DOE	
  will	
  be	
  able	
  to	
  comply	
  with	
  this	
  legislation	
  if	
  enacted.	
  ANGA	
  urges	
  Congress	
  to	
  move	
  
these	
  important	
  measures	
  forward	
  as	
  soon	
  as	
  possible.	
  	
  	
  
	
  
These	
  are	
  logical,	
  prudent	
  steps	
  to	
  provide	
  certainty	
  to	
  markets,	
  investors	
  and	
  the	
  entire	
  
natural	
  gas	
  supply	
  chain.	
  As	
  a	
  result,	
  they	
  boost	
  the	
  competitiveness	
  of	
  the	
  U.S.	
  in	
  this	
  growing	
  
market,	
  increasing	
  the	
  likelihood	
  our	
  nation	
  will	
  reap	
  significant	
  domestic	
  economic	
  benefits	
  
while	
  advancing	
  both	
  clean	
  energy	
  and	
  global	
  energy	
  security	
  throughout	
  the	
  world.	
  
	
  
	
  
Price	
  Impacts	
  and	
  Economic	
  Opportunities	
  Associated	
  With	
  LNG	
  Exports	
  
	
  
Opponents	
  of	
  natural	
  gas	
  exports	
  frequently	
  cite	
  implausible	
  export	
  scenarios	
  in	
  claiming	
  that	
  
shipping	
  gas	
  overseas	
  will	
  increase	
  domestic	
  prices.	
  Fortunately,	
  the	
  facts	
  tell	
  a	
  different	
  story.	
  
	
  
DOE	
  has	
  conducted	
  multiple,	
  comprehensive	
  analyses	
  —	
  both	
  internally	
  through	
  EIA	
  and	
  with	
  
outside	
  consultants	
  —	
  concluding	
  there	
  are	
  significant	
  domestic	
  economic	
  benefits	
  at	
  all	
  levels	
  
of	
  exports	
  considered,	
  with	
  very	
  modest	
  price	
  impacts	
  (Figure	
  5).	
  	
  	
  
	
  
  6	
  
In	
  January	
  2012,	
  EIA	
  published	
  a	
  study	
  examining	
  the	
  impacts	
  of	
  LNG	
  exports	
  at	
  both	
  6	
  Bcf/d	
  
and	
  12	
  Bcf/d	
  levels.	
  The	
  analysis	
  found	
  at	
  the	
  6	
  Bcf/d	
  level,	
  every	
  incremental	
  Bcf/d	
  would	
  
increase	
  prices	
  just	
  9	
  cents	
  per	
  MMBtu;	
  for	
  the	
  12	
  Bcf/d	
  level,	
  the	
  projected	
  domestic	
  price	
  
impact	
  would	
  be	
  about	
  11	
  cents	
  per	
  incremental	
  Bcf/d.	
  	
  	
  
	
  
Just	
  two	
  years	
  later	
  in	
  2014,	
  with	
  the	
  true	
  scale	
  of	
  the	
  U.S.	
  shale	
  gas	
  revolution	
  more	
  apparent,	
  
price	
  impact	
  estimates	
  fell	
  dramatically.	
  In	
  EIA’s	
  subsequent	
  study	
  analyzing	
  LNG	
  export	
  levels	
  
at	
  high	
  scenarios	
  of	
  12	
  Bcf/d,	
  16	
  Bcf/d	
  and	
  20	
  Bcf/d,	
  price	
  impacts	
  per	
  incremental	
  Bcf/d	
  were	
  
just	
  a	
  quarter	
  of	
  EIA’s	
  2012	
  estimates.	
  At	
  the	
  12	
  Bcf/d	
  level,	
  an	
  incremental	
  Bcf/d	
  added	
  just	
  3	
  
cents	
  to	
  the	
  domestic	
  price	
  of	
  natural	
  gas.6
	
  
	
  
	
  
Figure	
  5:	
  Projected	
  Natural	
  Gas	
  Price	
  Change	
  Per	
  Incremental	
  Bcf/d	
  Exported	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
Opponents	
  point	
  to	
  price	
  increases	
  they	
  claim	
  would	
  result	
  from	
  implausibly	
  high	
  export	
  
volumes	
  as	
  a	
  reason	
  not	
  to	
  export	
  at	
  all.	
  What	
  they	
  don’t	
  tell	
  you	
  is	
  that	
  the	
  most	
  plausible	
  
export	
  scenarios	
  would	
  be	
  well	
  under	
  those	
  evaluated	
  by	
  EIA,	
  accounting	
  for	
  less	
  than	
  10	
  
percent	
  of	
  total	
  U.S.	
  gas	
  production,	
  and	
  are	
  projected	
  to	
  have	
  a	
  de	
  minimis	
  impact	
  on	
  price.	
  	
  	
  
	
  
Some	
  point	
  to	
  Australia	
  as	
  a	
  “cautionary	
  tale”	
  for	
  price	
  increases	
  caused	
  by	
  exports,	
  but	
  again	
  
they’re	
  not	
  telling	
  the	
  whole	
  story.	
  In	
  2013,	
  Australia’s	
  production	
  was	
  nearly	
  2.2	
  Tcf,	
  while	
  U.S.	
  
production	
  was	
  25.1	
  Tcf.	
  Australia	
  exported	
  47	
  percent	
  of	
  what	
  it	
  produced	
  in	
  2013,	
  and	
  EIA	
  
projects	
  the	
  U.S.	
  will	
  export	
  under	
  10	
  percent	
  of	
  its	
  production	
  in	
  2030.	
  Australia	
  lacks	
  the	
  
extensive	
  pipeline	
  and	
  production	
  infrastructure	
  we	
  enjoy	
  in	
  the	
  U.S.	
  and	
  its	
  cost	
  of	
  production	
  
is	
  consistently	
  higher	
  than	
  here.	
  So	
  this	
  cautionary	
  tale	
  is	
  more	
  of	
  a	
  red	
  herring.	
  
6
	
  U.S.	
  Energy	
  Information	
  Administration,	
  “Effect	
  of	
  Increased	
  Levels	
  of	
  Liquefied	
  Natural	
  Gas	
  Exports	
  on	
  U.S.	
  
Energy	
  Markets,”	
  October	
  2014,	
  12,	
  http://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/fe/pdf/lng.pdf.	
  
	
  
0.00	
  
0.02	
  
0.04	
  
0.06	
  
0.08	
  
0.10	
  
0.12	
  
0.14	
  
Jul-­‐11	
   Jan-­‐12	
   Jul-­‐12	
   Jan-­‐13	
   Jul-­‐13	
   Jan-­‐14	
   Jul-­‐14	
   Jan-­‐15	
  
$	
  per	
  MMBTU	
  /	
  Bcf	
  per	
  day	
  
Study	
  Release	
  Date	
  
Projected	
  DomesXc	
  Natural	
  Gas	
  Price	
  Change	
  Per	
  	
  
Incremental	
  Bcf/d	
  Exported	
  
Deloiie:	
  
6	
  Bcf/d	
  	
  	
  
Scenario	
  
EIA:	
  
12	
  Bcf/d	
  Scenario	
  
	
  	
  6	
  Bcf/d	
  Scenario	
  
NERA:	
  
Reference	
  	
  
Scenarios	
  	
  
15.8	
  Bcf/d	
  
12.0	
  Bcf/d	
  
	
  	
  3.8	
  Bcf/d	
  
CRA:	
  
35	
  Bcf/d	
  Likely	
  Case	
  
20	
  Bcf/d	
  High	
  Export	
  Case	
  
ICF:	
  	
  
8	
  Bcf/d	
  Base	
  Case	
  
6	
  Bcf/d	
  Medium	
  Case	
  
4	
  Bcf/d	
  High	
  Case	
  
EIA:	
  	
  
20	
  Bcf/d	
  Scenario	
  
16	
  Bcf/d	
  Scenario	
  
12	
  Bcf/d	
  Scenario	
  
  7	
  
	
  
So	
  where	
  is	
  the	
  true	
  urgency?	
  In	
  addition	
  to	
  Australia,	
  countries	
  such	
  as	
  Qatar	
  (the	
  world’s	
  
largest	
  exporter	
  of	
  LNG),	
  Russia,	
  Oman	
  and	
  others	
  are	
  looking	
  to	
  enter	
  the	
  global	
  LNG	
  market.	
  
The	
  U.S.,	
  therefore,	
  needs	
  to	
  act	
  quickly	
  to	
  take	
  advantage	
  of	
  this	
  opportunity.	
  
	
  	
  
Exporting	
  U.S.	
  natural	
  gas	
  is	
  a	
  win-­‐win	
  proposition	
  that	
  will	
  strengthen	
  the	
  economy,	
  improve	
  
our	
  trade	
  balance	
  and	
  allow	
  us	
  to	
  be	
  a	
  global	
  energy	
  leader.	
  An	
  ICF	
  International	
  study	
  found	
  
that	
  LNG	
  exports	
  will	
  contribute	
  up	
  to	
  665,000	
  net	
  jobs	
  nationwide	
  and	
  add	
  up	
  to	
  $115	
  billion	
  
to	
  U.S.	
  gross	
  domestic	
  product	
  (GDP)	
  by	
  2035.7
	
  NERA	
  Economic	
  Consulting,	
  which	
  conducted	
  a	
  
study	
  on	
  the	
  macroeconomic	
  impacts	
  of	
  LNG	
  exports	
  at	
  the	
  request	
  of	
  DOE,	
  found	
  that	
  “LNG	
  
exports	
  provide	
  net	
  economic	
  benefits	
  in	
  all	
  the	
  scenarios	
  investigated,	
  and	
  the	
  greater	
  the	
  
level	
  of	
  exports,	
  the	
  greater	
  the	
  benefits.”8
	
  
	
  
Contrary	
  to	
  the	
  arguments	
  of	
  critics,	
  a	
  robust	
  export	
  market	
  will	
  boost	
  the	
  competitiveness	
  of	
  
many	
  U.S.-­‐based	
  manufacturing	
  interests.	
  By	
  encouraging	
  more	
  natural	
  gas	
  production,	
  exports	
  
will	
  incentivize	
  greater	
  production	
  of	
  the	
  associated	
  natural	
  gas	
  liquids,	
  which	
  are	
  essential	
  
building	
  blocks	
  for	
  a	
  strong	
  and	
  globally	
  competitive	
  U.S.	
  petrochemical	
  industry.	
  Reliable,	
  
affordable	
  supplies	
  of	
  natural	
  gas	
  and	
  natural	
  gas	
  liquids	
  will	
  continue	
  to	
  fuel	
  the	
  growth	
  of	
  the	
  
U.S.	
  manufacturing.	
  ICF	
  International	
  examined	
  the	
  impacts	
  of	
  LNG	
  exports	
  and	
  found	
  that	
  
natural	
  gas	
  liquid	
  volumes	
  would	
  increase	
  between	
  138,000	
  and	
  555,000	
  barrels	
  per	
  day	
  (bbl/d)	
  
by	
  2035	
  due	
  to	
  LNG	
  exports.9
	
  
	
  
By	
  attempting	
  to	
  curb	
  LNG	
  exports,	
  opponents	
  are	
  essentially	
  advocating	
  for	
  suppressing	
  
domestic	
  energy	
  production	
  and	
  limiting	
  overall	
  economic	
  benefits.	
  It	
  is	
  exactly	
  the	
  abundant,	
  
reliable	
  and	
  sustainable	
  supply	
  of	
  U.S.	
  natural	
  gas	
  that	
  is	
  driving	
  both	
  demand	
  for	
  LNG	
  exports	
  
and	
  a	
  manufacturing	
  renaissance	
  in	
  this	
  country.	
  Rather	
  than	
  being	
  at	
  odds,	
  LNG	
  exports	
  offer	
  
an	
  opportunity	
  to	
  stoke	
  U.S.	
  economic	
  growth	
  on	
  both	
  fronts.	
  
	
  
	
  
The	
  Energy	
  Security	
  Equation	
  
	
  
Just	
  as	
  the	
  trade	
  of	
  any	
  commodity	
  promotes	
  domestic	
  jobs	
  and	
  economic	
  growth,	
  so	
  too	
  will	
  
the	
  export	
  of	
  natural	
  gas.	
  Expanding	
  demand	
  for	
  U.S.	
  natural	
  gas	
  in	
  international	
  markets	
  will	
  
result	
  in	
  increased	
  investment,	
  enhanced	
  GDP	
  growth,	
  rising	
  incomes	
  and	
  more	
  jobs.	
  
Moreover,	
  U.S.	
  LNG	
  exports	
  will	
  expand	
  global	
  gas	
  markets,	
  enhancing	
  U.S.	
  influence	
  around	
  
the	
  world.	
  	
  
“From	
  a	
  geopolitical	
  perspective,	
  increased	
  LNG	
  exports	
  from	
  the	
  U.S.	
  and	
  its	
  allies	
  would	
  shift	
  
rents	
  away	
  from	
  traditional,	
  autocratic	
  suppliers,	
  including	
  Russia,	
  that	
  have	
  used	
  the	
  proceeds	
  
to	
  finance	
  policies	
  at	
  odds	
  with	
  U.S.	
  national	
  security	
  interests,”	
  said	
  David	
  Goldwyn,	
  a	
  senior	
  
fellow	
  with	
  the	
  Energy	
  Security	
  &	
  Climate	
  Initiative	
  at	
  the	
  Brookings	
  Institution,	
  in	
  testimony	
  
before	
  the	
  Senate	
  Committee	
  on	
  Foreign	
  Relations.	
  	
  
7
	
  ICF	
  International,	
  “U.S.	
  LNG	
  Exports:	
  State-­‐Level	
  Impacts	
  on	
  Energy	
  Markets	
  and	
  the	
  Economy,”	
  Nov.	
  13,	
  2013,	
  
Key	
  Findings.	
  	
  
8
	
  NERA	
  Economic	
  Consulting,	
  “Macroeconomic	
  Impacts	
  of	
  LNG	
  Exports	
  from	
  the	
  United	
  States,”	
  Dec.	
  2012,	
  1.	
  
9
	
  	
  ICF	
  International,	
  “U.S.	
  LNG	
  Exports:	
  Impacts	
  on	
  Energy	
  Markets	
  and	
  the	
  Economy.”	
  	
  May	
  2013,	
  7.	
  
  8	
  
	
  
Natural	
  gas	
  exports	
  can	
  support	
  our	
  allies	
  around	
  the	
  world	
  by	
  helping	
  them	
  diversify	
  their	
  
energy	
  sources.	
  While	
  Asia	
  is	
  considered	
  a	
  primary,	
  early	
  market,	
  European	
  customers	
  are	
  also	
  
lining	
  up	
  options	
  to	
  receive	
  LNG	
  from	
  U.S.	
  facilities.	
  
Earlier	
  this	
  year,	
  Lithuanian	
  Energy	
  Minister	
  Rokas	
  Masiulis	
  said	
  a	
  speedy	
  U.S.	
  response	
  to	
  world	
  
export	
  markets	
  could	
  reduce	
  what	
  he	
  called	
  “monopoly	
  conditions”	
  in	
  Russia.	
  “Lithuania	
  and	
  
the	
  rest	
  of	
  Europe	
  are	
  steadily	
  building	
  the	
  infrastructure	
  necessary	
  to	
  provide	
  greater	
  energy	
  
diversification	
  and	
  thus	
  to	
  enhance	
  regional	
  security,”	
  Energy	
  Minister	
  Masiulis	
  stated.	
  “What	
  
we	
  need	
  now	
  is	
  for	
  the	
  United	
  States	
  to	
  play	
  its	
  part,	
  demonstrating	
  its	
  commitment	
  to	
  free	
  
trade	
  by	
  allowing	
  its	
  allies	
  in	
  Europe	
  and	
  the	
  rest	
  of	
  the	
  world	
  to	
  quickly	
  benefit	
  from	
  the	
  
surplus	
  natural	
  gas	
  it	
  does	
  not	
  need.”	
  
Clearly,	
  the	
  U.S.	
  has	
  a	
  national	
  security	
  interest	
  in	
  providing	
  natural	
  gas	
  to	
  the	
  global	
  market.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
Benefits	
  to	
  the	
  Environment	
  
	
  
Domestic	
  industrial	
  growth	
  will	
  strengthen	
  the	
  U.S.	
  economy	
  and	
  provide	
  an	
  opportunity	
  to	
  
reduce	
  CO2	
  globally.	
  This	
  reduction	
  is	
  possible	
  partly	
  because	
  U.S.	
  energy	
  consumers	
  are	
  less	
  
carbon	
  intensive	
  than	
  other	
  parts	
  of	
  the	
  world.	
  	
  	
  
	
  
For	
  example,	
  while	
  the	
  U.S.	
  electric	
  sector	
  had	
  an	
  average	
  carbon	
  intensity	
  of	
  1,109	
  lb	
  
CO2/MWh	
  in	
  2011,	
  the	
  electric	
  sectors	
  in	
  China,	
  India	
  and	
  the	
  Middle	
  East	
  had	
  much	
  higher	
  
average	
  carbon	
  intensities	
  of	
  1,684	
  lb	
  CO2/MWh,	
  1,887	
  lb	
  CO2/MWh	
  and	
  1,493	
  lb	
  CO2/MWh,	
  
respectively.10
	
  LNG	
  exports	
  allow	
  the	
  U.S.	
  to	
  both	
  reduce	
  emissions	
  globally	
  and	
  continue	
  to	
  
support	
  our	
  domestic	
  manufacturing	
  renaissance.	
  	
  
	
  
Energy	
  Secretary	
  Moniz	
  notes	
  that	
  “natural	
  gas	
  will	
  play	
  a	
  crucial	
  role	
  in	
  enabling	
  very	
  
substantial	
  reductions	
  in	
  carbon	
  emissions.”11
	
  Just	
  as	
  essential	
  as	
  its	
  role	
  in	
  reducing	
  carbon	
  
emissions,	
  greater	
  natural	
  gas	
  production	
  and	
  use	
  lowers	
  emissions	
  of	
  pollutants,	
  such	
  as	
  
mercury,	
  sulfur	
  dioxide,	
  nitrogen	
  oxide	
  and	
  particulate	
  matter.12
	
  According	
  to	
  Environmental	
  
Protection	
  Agency	
  (EPA)	
  Administrator	
  Gina	
  McCarthy,	
  “natural	
  gas	
  in	
  the	
  U.S.	
  has	
  been	
  a	
  game	
  
changer…	
  [i]t’s	
  been	
  a	
  significant	
  benefit	
  to	
  the	
  United	
  States.	
  It’s	
  been	
  a	
  significant	
  benefit	
  to	
  
air	
  quality.”13
	
  
	
  
Exporting	
  U.S.	
  LNG	
  will	
  reduce	
  a	
  broad	
  spectrum	
  of	
  global	
  greenhouse	
  gas	
  (GHG)	
  emissions.	
  
DOE’s	
  study	
  entitled	
  “Life	
  Cycle	
  Greenhouse	
  Gas	
  Perspective	
  on	
  Exporting	
  Liquefied	
  Natural	
  Gas	
  
10
	
  International	
  Energy	
  Agency,	
  “CO2	
  Emissions	
  from	
  Fuel	
  Combustion,”	
  2013,	
  accessed	
  March	
  5,	
  2015,	
  
http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/co2emissionsfromfuelcombustionhighlights2013.pd
f.	
  
11
	
  Steven	
  Mufson,	
  “Ernest	
  Moniz,	
  MIT	
  physicist,	
  nominated	
  as	
  energy	
  secretary,”	
  Washington	
  Post,	
  March	
  4,	
  2013,	
  
accessed	
  January	
  26,	
  2015,	
  http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/ernest-­‐moniz-­‐mit-­‐physicist-­‐is-­‐to-­‐
be-­‐nominated-­‐as-­‐energy-­‐secretary/2013/03/04/e3fe68aa-­‐808c-­‐11e2-­‐a350-­‐49866afab584_story.html.	
  
12
	
  EPA,	
  “Air	
  Markets	
  Program	
  Data,”	
  accessed	
  January	
  22,	
  2014,	
  http://ampd.epa.gov/ampd/.	
  
13
	
  Jeff	
  McMahon,	
  “EPA	
  Administrator	
  Gina	
  McCarthy	
  Defends	
  Natural	
  Gas,”	
  Forbes,	
  September	
  25,	
  2014,	
  accessed	
  
January	
  26,	
  2015,	
  http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2014/09/25/mccarthy-­‐defends-­‐natural-­‐gas/.	
  
  9	
  
from	
  the	
  United	
  States”	
  found	
  that	
  U.S.	
  natural	
  gas	
  consumed	
  in	
  Europe	
  or	
  Asia	
  has	
  lower	
  life	
  
cycle	
  GHG	
  emissions	
  than	
  power	
  generation	
  from	
  locally	
  sourced	
  fossil	
  fuels.14
	
  	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
Conclusion	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  
Thanks	
  to	
  the	
  shale	
  energy	
  revolution,	
  America	
  has	
  moved	
  from	
  a	
  posture	
  of	
  energy	
  scarcity	
  to	
  
one	
  of	
  energy	
  abundance.	
  The	
  U.S.	
  can	
  harness	
  clean,	
  abundant	
  and	
  affordable	
  natural	
  gas	
  for	
  
both	
  domestic	
  consumption	
  and	
  exports	
  to	
  become	
  a	
  global	
  energy	
  leader.	
  	
  	
  
	
  
This	
  paradigm	
  shift	
  is	
  driving	
  economic	
  growth,	
  environmental	
  improvements	
  and	
  enhanced	
  
energy	
  security.	
  However,	
  to	
  fully	
  realize	
  the	
  potential	
  presented	
  by	
  our	
  natural	
  gas	
  abundance,	
  
it	
  is	
  imperative	
  that	
  we	
  advance	
  policies	
  that	
  allow	
  America	
  to	
  sell	
  its	
  product	
  overseas,	
  just	
  like	
  
producers	
  of	
  other	
  American	
  products.	
  	
  
	
  
To	
  do	
  that,	
  we	
  must	
  have	
  a	
  more	
  predictable	
  and	
  timely	
  approval	
  process	
  that	
  provides	
  the	
  
certainty	
  companies	
  need	
  to	
  compete	
  in	
  global	
  LNG	
  markets	
  and	
  to	
  improve	
  economic	
  
conditions	
  both	
  here	
  in	
  America	
  and	
  for	
  our	
  strategic	
  allies	
  overseas	
  who	
  are	
  eagerly	
  awaiting	
  
access	
  to	
  America’s	
  natural	
  gas	
  abundance.	
  We	
  encourage	
  the	
  administration	
  and	
  Congress	
  to	
  
make	
  this	
  a	
  priority,	
  so	
  our	
  nation	
  can	
  seize	
  this	
  exceptional	
  opportunity.	
  
	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
About	
  ANGA	
  
Representing	
  North	
  America’s	
  leading	
  independent	
  natural	
  gas	
  exploration	
  and	
  production	
  companies,	
  
America's	
  Natural	
  Gas	
  Alliance	
  (ANGA)	
  works	
  with	
  industry,	
  government	
  and	
  customer	
  stakeholders	
  to	
  
promote	
  increased	
  demand	
  for	
  and	
  continued	
  availability	
  of	
  our	
  nation’s	
  abundant	
  natural	
  gas	
  resource	
  
for	
  a	
  cleaner	
  and	
  more	
  secure	
  energy	
  future.	
  Learn	
  more	
  about	
  ANGA	
  at	
  www.anga.us	
  
14
	
  U.S.	
  Department	
  of	
  Energy,	
  “Life	
  Cycle	
  Greenhouse	
  Gas	
  perspective	
  on	
  Exporting	
  Liquefied	
  Natural	
  Gas	
  from	
  the	
  
United	
  States,”	
  May	
  29,	
  2014,	
  9.	
  

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Report: LNG Exports are America's Once-in-a-Generation Opportunity

  • 1. Carpe Diem: LNG Exports Are America’s Once-in-a-Generation Opportunity White Paper By APRIL 2015
  • 2.   1   Introduction     The  United  States  can  be  a  global  energy  leader  by  exporting  a  share  of  our  abundant  natural   gas  supplies  without  sacrificing  the  competitive  advantage  enjoyed  by  domestic  manufacturers.   But  we  need  to  act  soon.       The  enormous  reserves  of  natural  gas  in  the  United  States  have  dramatically  changed  the  global   energy  equation.  The  Potential  Gas  Committee’s1  (PGC)  freshly  issued  biennial  report  has   yielded  for  the  sixth  time  in  a  row  a  record  natural  gas  resource  assessment.  The  bottom  line:   U.S.  natural  gas  consumption  in  2014  totaled  27  trillion  cubic  feet  (Tcf),  yet  the  total  volume  of   U.S.  natural  gas  recoverable  with  existing  technology  is  2,853  Tcf  —  more  than  100  times   greater.         In  addition,  the  U.S.  Energy  Information  Administration’s  (EIA)  2015  Annual  Energy  Outlook   projects  increased  domestic  natural  gas  production  and  stable  prices  for  decades  to  come.   While  some  continue  to  call  for  restrictions  on  liquefied  natural  gas  (LNG)  exports,  these  latest   figures  provide  more  evidence  that  we  have  an  opportunity  to  reap  all  of  the  economic,   geopolitical  and  environmental  benefits  of  LNG  exports,  while  continuing  to  fuel  a   manufacturing  renaissance  at  home.     The  markets  are  giving  us  the  same  message.  Royal  Dutch  Shell  announced  its  intention  to   acquire  BG  Group  for  $70  billion,  with  analysts  calling  the  move  primarily  a  bet  on  robust  global   trade  in  LNG.  Further,  even  in  an  environment  of  soft  global  oil  prices,  companies  have   maintained  their  efforts  to  gain  approval  from  the  Federal  Energy  Regulatory  Commission   (FERC)  for  LNG  export  facilities.  But  the  global  demand  for  LNG  is  not  infinite.    Many  countries   are  making  plans  to  compete.  The  time  for  the  U.S.  to  act  is  now.     ANGA  urges  the  Department  of  Energy  (DOE)  to  move  forward  as  quickly  as  possible  to  approve   all  terminals  now  in  its  queue,  and  we  ask  Congress  to  enact  legislation  that  enjoys  strong   bipartisan  support  to  help  expedite  and  provide  certainty  to  the  permitting  process.     This  paper  details  the  many  advantages  of  exporting  LNG  and  addresses  the  overheated   rhetoric  by  some  opponents.  It  also  outlines  the  domestic  manufacturing  opportunities,  the   energy  security  benefits  for  America  and  its  allies,  and  the  environmental  improvements  that   can  be  made  by  exporting  natural  gas.     Thanks  to  the  shale  revolution,  America  faces  a  future  of  energy  abundance.  It  should  share  this   bounty  with  the  world.  The  United  States  can  be  a  global  energy  leader  without  sacrificing  its   domestic  advantage.  For  its  citizens  and  its  allies,  the  United  States  should  seize  the  day.       1  A  group  of  highly  knowledgeable  and  experienced  geologists,  engineers  and  others  who,  since  1964,  have   assessed  the  technically  recoverable  natural  gas  resource  base  in  the  United  States  on  a  biennial  basis.  The   Colorado  School  of  Mines  (CSM)  leads  the  work  of  the  PGC.      
  • 3.   2   Supply:    Does  the  U.S.  Have  Enough  Natural  Gas  to  Use  at  Home  and  to  Export?     Can  the  U.S.  export  natural  gas  without  “giving  away  our  domestic  advantage”?  The  simple   answer  is  yes.  U.S.  natural  gas  supply  is  vast  and  recoverable  enough  to  support  significant   market  growth  across  the  economy,  including  power  generation,  manufacturing,  transportation   and  exports.       The  most  recent  PGC  projections  join  a  host  of  credible  assessments  from  industry,  academia   and  government  showing  a  range  of  technically  recoverable  gas  from  2,266  to  3,933  Tcf  (Figure   1).    Of  these  reserves,  ICF  International  estimates  that  more  than  1,500  Tcf  of  natural  gas  is   available  at  $5/MMBTU  or  less.2     The  long-­‐term  advantage  our  nation  enjoys  as  a  result  of  this  abundance  was  confirmed  by   PGC’s  most  recent  findings.  “Our  present  assessment,  strengthened  by  robust  domestic   production  levels  and  reserves  bookings,  demonstrates  an  exceptionally  strong  and  optimistic   gas  supply  picture  for  the  nation,”  said  Dr.  John  B.  Curtis,  the  committee’s  top  geologist  and   Professor  Emeritus  of  Geology  and  Geological  Engineering  at  the  Colorado  School  of  Mines.     Figure  1:  Technically  Recoverable  Reserves     2  ICF  International,  “U.S.  LNG  Exports:  Impacts  on  Energy  Markets  and  the  Economy,”  May  2013,  45.  
  • 4.   3   Since  2005,  U.S.  natural  gas  production  has  increased  41  percent.  The  EIA  2015  Annual  Energy   Outlook  projects  a  further  48  percent  increase  in  production  from  2010  to  2035  (Figure  2).3  EIA   confirms  in  its  report  that  increased  natural  gas  production  will  support  growing  demand  from   LNG  exports.4         Figure  2:  U.S.  Natural  Gas  Production   Natural  Gas  Production  (TCF):  Reference       Given  the  broad  and  data-­‐driven  consensus  affirming  our  nation’s  enormous  natural  gas   supplies,  suggestions  by  some  opponents  of  LNG  exports  —  groups  like  America’s  Energy   Advantage  and  the  Industrial  Energy  Consumers  of  America  (IECA)  —  that  the  resource  is   inadequate  to  support  both  domestic  needs  and  LNG  exports  simply  have  no  basis  in  fact.     Just  a  few  years  ago,  energy  experts  expected  the  U.S.  to  become  a  major  importer  of  natural   gas.  The  shale  revolution  has  virtually  eliminated  the  need  for  imports  and  EIA  now  projects   America  will  instead  be  a  net  natural  gas  exporter  by  2017.5         3  EIA,  “Annual  Energy  Outlook  2015:  Total  Energy  Supply,  Disposition,  and  Price  Summary,  Reference  Case  Table,”   May,  2015,  accessed  April  15,  2015.       4  U.S.  Energy  Information  Administration,  “Effect  of  Increased  Levels  of  Liquefied  Natural  Gas  Exports  on  U.S.   Energy  Markets,”  October  2014,  12,  http://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/fe/pdf/lng.pdf.   5  EIA,  “Annual  Energy  Outlook  2015,”  April,  2015,  ES-­‐1.   0   10   20   30   40   2000   2005   2010   2015   2020   2025   2030   2035   AEO  2010   AEO  2015   Historical  
  • 5.   4   Source:  DOE  &  FERC   The  Need  for  Action     The  LNG  export  licensing  and  permitting  process  involves  both  FERC  and  DOE.  The  FERC  process   is  extensive,  predictable,  requires  significant  investment  from  the  applicant  and  provides   meaningful  opportunity  for  public  comment  and  input.         While  DOE  made  improvements  to  its  permitting  procedures  in  August  2014,  the  need  for   certainty  and  quicker  action  remains.  Applications  continue  to  languish  far  too  long  and  the  U.S.   stands  to  gain  immensely  from  expediting  these  processes.  Applicants  will  be  better  able  to   estimate  their  costs,  construction  timelines  and  labor  needs  if  they  can  more  accurately   estimate  the  time  these  licensing  processes  will  take.  Figure  3  shows  that  those  terminals  that   have  received  FERC  approval  all  applied  to  DOE  three  to  five  years  ago.  More  than  half  of  the   dozens  of  applications  awaiting  approval  were  sent  to  the  federal  government  in  2012  or   earlier.       Figure  3:  DOE  Approval  Timeline     Terminal   Applied  to   DOE   Final   Approval  at   FERC   Final   Approval  at   DOE   Days  between   FERC  and  DOE   Approvals      Sabine  Pass   7-­‐Sep-­‐10   16-­‐Apr-­‐12   7-­‐Aug-­‐12   113      Freeport  LNG   17-­‐Dec-­‐10   30-­‐Jul-­‐14   20-­‐Nov-­‐14   113      Carib  Energy   20-­‐Oct-­‐11   N/A   20-­‐Sep-­‐14   N/A   Cameron  LNG   21-­‐Dec-­‐11   19-­‐Jun-­‐14   16-­‐Sep-­‐14   89   Cove  Point   3-­‐Oct-­‐11   30-­‐Sep-­‐14   Still  waiting     Corpus  Christi   31-­‐Aug-­‐12   20-­‐Dec-­‐14   Still  waiting             An  unpredictable  licensing  process  could  keep  U.S.  LNG  exports  from  entering  the  global   market.  Proposed  global  LNG  capacity  outside  the  United  States  is  approximately  50  billion   cubic  feet  per  day  (Bcf/d).  However,  recent  studies  project  global  demand  for  natural  gas  to   increase  between  18  and  38  Bcf/d  by  2025.  Given  the  disparity  between  projected  demand  and   the  number  of  facilities  proposed  worldwide,  the  window  of  opportunity  for  the  U.S.  to  capture   some  of  this  global  demand  is  narrow  (Figure  4).  Further,  LNG  export  facilities  cost  billions  of   dollars  and  take  several  years  to  build.        
  • 6.   5   Figure  4:  Global  LNG  Export  Capacity  and  Demand   We  urge  the  administration  to  continue  finding  ways  to  move  applications  more  quickly.  We   also  believe  it  is  important  for  Congress  to  enact  legislation  to  expedite  and  provide  certainty  to   the  approval  process.  The  House  has  passed  a  bill  (HR  351)  that  would  require  DOE  to  process   permits  within  30  days  of  FERC  approval,  while  Senate  legislation  (S  33)  sets  a  45-­‐day  approval   window  for  DOE.       Both  measures  enjoy  strong  bipartisan  support.  And,  Energy  Secretary  Ernest  Moniz  has  stated   that  DOE  will  be  able  to  comply  with  this  legislation  if  enacted.  ANGA  urges  Congress  to  move   these  important  measures  forward  as  soon  as  possible.         These  are  logical,  prudent  steps  to  provide  certainty  to  markets,  investors  and  the  entire   natural  gas  supply  chain.  As  a  result,  they  boost  the  competitiveness  of  the  U.S.  in  this  growing   market,  increasing  the  likelihood  our  nation  will  reap  significant  domestic  economic  benefits   while  advancing  both  clean  energy  and  global  energy  security  throughout  the  world.       Price  Impacts  and  Economic  Opportunities  Associated  With  LNG  Exports     Opponents  of  natural  gas  exports  frequently  cite  implausible  export  scenarios  in  claiming  that   shipping  gas  overseas  will  increase  domestic  prices.  Fortunately,  the  facts  tell  a  different  story.     DOE  has  conducted  multiple,  comprehensive  analyses  —  both  internally  through  EIA  and  with   outside  consultants  —  concluding  there  are  significant  domestic  economic  benefits  at  all  levels   of  exports  considered,  with  very  modest  price  impacts  (Figure  5).        
  • 7.   6   In  January  2012,  EIA  published  a  study  examining  the  impacts  of  LNG  exports  at  both  6  Bcf/d   and  12  Bcf/d  levels.  The  analysis  found  at  the  6  Bcf/d  level,  every  incremental  Bcf/d  would   increase  prices  just  9  cents  per  MMBtu;  for  the  12  Bcf/d  level,  the  projected  domestic  price   impact  would  be  about  11  cents  per  incremental  Bcf/d.         Just  two  years  later  in  2014,  with  the  true  scale  of  the  U.S.  shale  gas  revolution  more  apparent,   price  impact  estimates  fell  dramatically.  In  EIA’s  subsequent  study  analyzing  LNG  export  levels   at  high  scenarios  of  12  Bcf/d,  16  Bcf/d  and  20  Bcf/d,  price  impacts  per  incremental  Bcf/d  were   just  a  quarter  of  EIA’s  2012  estimates.  At  the  12  Bcf/d  level,  an  incremental  Bcf/d  added  just  3   cents  to  the  domestic  price  of  natural  gas.6       Figure  5:  Projected  Natural  Gas  Price  Change  Per  Incremental  Bcf/d  Exported         Opponents  point  to  price  increases  they  claim  would  result  from  implausibly  high  export   volumes  as  a  reason  not  to  export  at  all.  What  they  don’t  tell  you  is  that  the  most  plausible   export  scenarios  would  be  well  under  those  evaluated  by  EIA,  accounting  for  less  than  10   percent  of  total  U.S.  gas  production,  and  are  projected  to  have  a  de  minimis  impact  on  price.         Some  point  to  Australia  as  a  “cautionary  tale”  for  price  increases  caused  by  exports,  but  again   they’re  not  telling  the  whole  story.  In  2013,  Australia’s  production  was  nearly  2.2  Tcf,  while  U.S.   production  was  25.1  Tcf.  Australia  exported  47  percent  of  what  it  produced  in  2013,  and  EIA   projects  the  U.S.  will  export  under  10  percent  of  its  production  in  2030.  Australia  lacks  the   extensive  pipeline  and  production  infrastructure  we  enjoy  in  the  U.S.  and  its  cost  of  production   is  consistently  higher  than  here.  So  this  cautionary  tale  is  more  of  a  red  herring.   6  U.S.  Energy  Information  Administration,  “Effect  of  Increased  Levels  of  Liquefied  Natural  Gas  Exports  on  U.S.   Energy  Markets,”  October  2014,  12,  http://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/fe/pdf/lng.pdf.     0.00   0.02   0.04   0.06   0.08   0.10   0.12   0.14   Jul-­‐11   Jan-­‐12   Jul-­‐12   Jan-­‐13   Jul-­‐13   Jan-­‐14   Jul-­‐14   Jan-­‐15   $  per  MMBTU  /  Bcf  per  day   Study  Release  Date   Projected  DomesXc  Natural  Gas  Price  Change  Per     Incremental  Bcf/d  Exported   Deloiie:   6  Bcf/d       Scenario   EIA:   12  Bcf/d  Scenario      6  Bcf/d  Scenario   NERA:   Reference     Scenarios     15.8  Bcf/d   12.0  Bcf/d      3.8  Bcf/d   CRA:   35  Bcf/d  Likely  Case   20  Bcf/d  High  Export  Case   ICF:     8  Bcf/d  Base  Case   6  Bcf/d  Medium  Case   4  Bcf/d  High  Case   EIA:     20  Bcf/d  Scenario   16  Bcf/d  Scenario   12  Bcf/d  Scenario  
  • 8.   7     So  where  is  the  true  urgency?  In  addition  to  Australia,  countries  such  as  Qatar  (the  world’s   largest  exporter  of  LNG),  Russia,  Oman  and  others  are  looking  to  enter  the  global  LNG  market.   The  U.S.,  therefore,  needs  to  act  quickly  to  take  advantage  of  this  opportunity.       Exporting  U.S.  natural  gas  is  a  win-­‐win  proposition  that  will  strengthen  the  economy,  improve   our  trade  balance  and  allow  us  to  be  a  global  energy  leader.  An  ICF  International  study  found   that  LNG  exports  will  contribute  up  to  665,000  net  jobs  nationwide  and  add  up  to  $115  billion   to  U.S.  gross  domestic  product  (GDP)  by  2035.7  NERA  Economic  Consulting,  which  conducted  a   study  on  the  macroeconomic  impacts  of  LNG  exports  at  the  request  of  DOE,  found  that  “LNG   exports  provide  net  economic  benefits  in  all  the  scenarios  investigated,  and  the  greater  the   level  of  exports,  the  greater  the  benefits.”8     Contrary  to  the  arguments  of  critics,  a  robust  export  market  will  boost  the  competitiveness  of   many  U.S.-­‐based  manufacturing  interests.  By  encouraging  more  natural  gas  production,  exports   will  incentivize  greater  production  of  the  associated  natural  gas  liquids,  which  are  essential   building  blocks  for  a  strong  and  globally  competitive  U.S.  petrochemical  industry.  Reliable,   affordable  supplies  of  natural  gas  and  natural  gas  liquids  will  continue  to  fuel  the  growth  of  the   U.S.  manufacturing.  ICF  International  examined  the  impacts  of  LNG  exports  and  found  that   natural  gas  liquid  volumes  would  increase  between  138,000  and  555,000  barrels  per  day  (bbl/d)   by  2035  due  to  LNG  exports.9     By  attempting  to  curb  LNG  exports,  opponents  are  essentially  advocating  for  suppressing   domestic  energy  production  and  limiting  overall  economic  benefits.  It  is  exactly  the  abundant,   reliable  and  sustainable  supply  of  U.S.  natural  gas  that  is  driving  both  demand  for  LNG  exports   and  a  manufacturing  renaissance  in  this  country.  Rather  than  being  at  odds,  LNG  exports  offer   an  opportunity  to  stoke  U.S.  economic  growth  on  both  fronts.       The  Energy  Security  Equation     Just  as  the  trade  of  any  commodity  promotes  domestic  jobs  and  economic  growth,  so  too  will   the  export  of  natural  gas.  Expanding  demand  for  U.S.  natural  gas  in  international  markets  will   result  in  increased  investment,  enhanced  GDP  growth,  rising  incomes  and  more  jobs.   Moreover,  U.S.  LNG  exports  will  expand  global  gas  markets,  enhancing  U.S.  influence  around   the  world.     “From  a  geopolitical  perspective,  increased  LNG  exports  from  the  U.S.  and  its  allies  would  shift   rents  away  from  traditional,  autocratic  suppliers,  including  Russia,  that  have  used  the  proceeds   to  finance  policies  at  odds  with  U.S.  national  security  interests,”  said  David  Goldwyn,  a  senior   fellow  with  the  Energy  Security  &  Climate  Initiative  at  the  Brookings  Institution,  in  testimony   before  the  Senate  Committee  on  Foreign  Relations.     7  ICF  International,  “U.S.  LNG  Exports:  State-­‐Level  Impacts  on  Energy  Markets  and  the  Economy,”  Nov.  13,  2013,   Key  Findings.     8  NERA  Economic  Consulting,  “Macroeconomic  Impacts  of  LNG  Exports  from  the  United  States,”  Dec.  2012,  1.   9    ICF  International,  “U.S.  LNG  Exports:  Impacts  on  Energy  Markets  and  the  Economy.”    May  2013,  7.  
  • 9.   8     Natural  gas  exports  can  support  our  allies  around  the  world  by  helping  them  diversify  their   energy  sources.  While  Asia  is  considered  a  primary,  early  market,  European  customers  are  also   lining  up  options  to  receive  LNG  from  U.S.  facilities.   Earlier  this  year,  Lithuanian  Energy  Minister  Rokas  Masiulis  said  a  speedy  U.S.  response  to  world   export  markets  could  reduce  what  he  called  “monopoly  conditions”  in  Russia.  “Lithuania  and   the  rest  of  Europe  are  steadily  building  the  infrastructure  necessary  to  provide  greater  energy   diversification  and  thus  to  enhance  regional  security,”  Energy  Minister  Masiulis  stated.  “What   we  need  now  is  for  the  United  States  to  play  its  part,  demonstrating  its  commitment  to  free   trade  by  allowing  its  allies  in  Europe  and  the  rest  of  the  world  to  quickly  benefit  from  the   surplus  natural  gas  it  does  not  need.”   Clearly,  the  U.S.  has  a  national  security  interest  in  providing  natural  gas  to  the  global  market.         Benefits  to  the  Environment     Domestic  industrial  growth  will  strengthen  the  U.S.  economy  and  provide  an  opportunity  to   reduce  CO2  globally.  This  reduction  is  possible  partly  because  U.S.  energy  consumers  are  less   carbon  intensive  than  other  parts  of  the  world.         For  example,  while  the  U.S.  electric  sector  had  an  average  carbon  intensity  of  1,109  lb   CO2/MWh  in  2011,  the  electric  sectors  in  China,  India  and  the  Middle  East  had  much  higher   average  carbon  intensities  of  1,684  lb  CO2/MWh,  1,887  lb  CO2/MWh  and  1,493  lb  CO2/MWh,   respectively.10  LNG  exports  allow  the  U.S.  to  both  reduce  emissions  globally  and  continue  to   support  our  domestic  manufacturing  renaissance.       Energy  Secretary  Moniz  notes  that  “natural  gas  will  play  a  crucial  role  in  enabling  very   substantial  reductions  in  carbon  emissions.”11  Just  as  essential  as  its  role  in  reducing  carbon   emissions,  greater  natural  gas  production  and  use  lowers  emissions  of  pollutants,  such  as   mercury,  sulfur  dioxide,  nitrogen  oxide  and  particulate  matter.12  According  to  Environmental   Protection  Agency  (EPA)  Administrator  Gina  McCarthy,  “natural  gas  in  the  U.S.  has  been  a  game   changer…  [i]t’s  been  a  significant  benefit  to  the  United  States.  It’s  been  a  significant  benefit  to   air  quality.”13     Exporting  U.S.  LNG  will  reduce  a  broad  spectrum  of  global  greenhouse  gas  (GHG)  emissions.   DOE’s  study  entitled  “Life  Cycle  Greenhouse  Gas  Perspective  on  Exporting  Liquefied  Natural  Gas   10  International  Energy  Agency,  “CO2  Emissions  from  Fuel  Combustion,”  2013,  accessed  March  5,  2015,   http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/co2emissionsfromfuelcombustionhighlights2013.pd f.   11  Steven  Mufson,  “Ernest  Moniz,  MIT  physicist,  nominated  as  energy  secretary,”  Washington  Post,  March  4,  2013,   accessed  January  26,  2015,  http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/ernest-­‐moniz-­‐mit-­‐physicist-­‐is-­‐to-­‐ be-­‐nominated-­‐as-­‐energy-­‐secretary/2013/03/04/e3fe68aa-­‐808c-­‐11e2-­‐a350-­‐49866afab584_story.html.   12  EPA,  “Air  Markets  Program  Data,”  accessed  January  22,  2014,  http://ampd.epa.gov/ampd/.   13  Jeff  McMahon,  “EPA  Administrator  Gina  McCarthy  Defends  Natural  Gas,”  Forbes,  September  25,  2014,  accessed   January  26,  2015,  http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2014/09/25/mccarthy-­‐defends-­‐natural-­‐gas/.  
  • 10.   9   from  the  United  States”  found  that  U.S.  natural  gas  consumed  in  Europe  or  Asia  has  lower  life   cycle  GHG  emissions  than  power  generation  from  locally  sourced  fossil  fuels.14           Conclusion           Thanks  to  the  shale  energy  revolution,  America  has  moved  from  a  posture  of  energy  scarcity  to   one  of  energy  abundance.  The  U.S.  can  harness  clean,  abundant  and  affordable  natural  gas  for   both  domestic  consumption  and  exports  to  become  a  global  energy  leader.         This  paradigm  shift  is  driving  economic  growth,  environmental  improvements  and  enhanced   energy  security.  However,  to  fully  realize  the  potential  presented  by  our  natural  gas  abundance,   it  is  imperative  that  we  advance  policies  that  allow  America  to  sell  its  product  overseas,  just  like   producers  of  other  American  products.       To  do  that,  we  must  have  a  more  predictable  and  timely  approval  process  that  provides  the   certainty  companies  need  to  compete  in  global  LNG  markets  and  to  improve  economic   conditions  both  here  in  America  and  for  our  strategic  allies  overseas  who  are  eagerly  awaiting   access  to  America’s  natural  gas  abundance.  We  encourage  the  administration  and  Congress  to   make  this  a  priority,  so  our  nation  can  seize  this  exceptional  opportunity.                                       About  ANGA   Representing  North  America’s  leading  independent  natural  gas  exploration  and  production  companies,   America's  Natural  Gas  Alliance  (ANGA)  works  with  industry,  government  and  customer  stakeholders  to   promote  increased  demand  for  and  continued  availability  of  our  nation’s  abundant  natural  gas  resource   for  a  cleaner  and  more  secure  energy  future.  Learn  more  about  ANGA  at  www.anga.us   14  U.S.  Department  of  Energy,  “Life  Cycle  Greenhouse  Gas  perspective  on  Exporting  Liquefied  Natural  Gas  from  the   United  States,”  May  29,  2014,  9.