Brookings Institution Report: Natural Gas Liquids

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A report issued in March 2013 by The Brookings Institution, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank. The report calls attention to a little-covered aspect of the American shale revolution--that of the economic impact of natural gas liquids. Covering from what NGLs are to the key NGL players to the economics of NGLs, this 15-page report covers all of the important information without becoming a data dump.

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Brookings Institution Report: Natural Gas Liquids

  1. 1. Brookings Energy Security Initiative Natural Gas Task Force Natural Gas Briefing Document #1:Natural Gas Liquids March 2013 Charles K. Ebinger Govinda Avasarala Bro o k i n gs Nat u ra l Gas Tas k Fo rc e Issue Brief 1: Natural Gas Liquids 1
  2. 2. PrefaceI n May 2011, The Brookings Institution Energy Security Initiative (ESI) assembled a Task Force of independent natural-gas experts, whose expertise and insights provided inform its research on various issues regarding the U.S. natural gas sector. In May 2012, Brookings released its first report, analyzing the case and prospectsfor exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States. The Task Force now continues to meet pe-riodically to discuss important issues facing the sector. With input from the Task Force, Brookings will releaseperiodic issue briefs for policymakers.The conclusions and recommendations of this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflectthe views of the members of the task force. Members of the Brookings Institution Natural Gas Task ForceJ ohn B anks , Brookings InstitutionK elly B ennett , Bentek Energy, LLCJ ason B ordoff , Columbia UniversityK evin B ook , ClearView Energy Partners, LLCT om C hoi , DeloitteC harles E binger , Brookings Institution, Task Force co-ChairD avid G oldwyn , Goldwyn Global Strategies, LLC, Task Force co-ChairS haia H osseinzadeh , WL RossJ ames J ensen , Jensen AssociatesR obert J ohnston , Eurasia GroupM elanie K enderdine , Massachusetts Institute of Technology Energy InitiativeV ello K uuskraa , Advanced Resources InternationalM ichael L evi , Council on Foreign RelationsR obert M c N ally , The Rapidan GroupK enneth M edlock , Rice University’s James A. Baker III Institute for Public PolicyL ou P ugliaresi , Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc.B enjamin S chlesinger , Benjamin Schlesinger & Associates, LLCJ amie W ebster , PFC EnergyNon-participating Observers to Task Force meetings included officials from the Energy Information Adminis-tration and the Congressional Research Service. Bro o k i n gs Nat u ra l Gas Tas k Fo rc e Issue Brief 1: Natural Gas Liquids 2
  3. 3. Key Takeaways NGLs are a significant portion of what many international organizations refer to as U.S. “oil production.” It is important to recognize that roughly 2.5 mmbd of U.S. “oil” pro- duction is from NGLs, the majority of which are not substitutable for crude oil. NGLs will be essential for the revenues of gas producers during prolonged periods of low natural gas prices. Maintaining domestic oil and gas production is critical for U.S. NGL production and for the U.S. industrial sector. Domestic infrastructure is currently ill-situated to harness new production: invest- ments in new pipelines and petrochemical facilities are often delayed by the regulatory and permitting process. U.S. NGL exports are important for reducing price volatility and incentivizing further production. Bro o k i n gs Nat u ra l Gas Tas k Fo rc e Issue Brief 1: Natural Gas Liquids 3
  4. 4. IntroductionT he fundamental changes in the U.S. hydrocar- gas, they are a critical component of the industrial bon production landscape are now widely ac- sector’s ability to take advantage of the U.S. hydro- knowledged. Advances in exploration and drill- carbon resurgence, and will play a large role in theing technology have led to a surge in domestic oil country’s ambitions for energy “self-sufficiency.”and gas production in recent years with profoundeconomic and geopolitical implications. However, NGL production has increased significantly in re-one important aspect of the U.S. unconventional oil cent years. According to the Energy Informationand gas “revolution,” has gone relatively unnoticed: Administration (EIA), total domestic NGL produc-the rapid increase in the production of natural gas tion increased from just over 1.7 million barrels perliquids (NGLs). NGLs comprise a number of hydro- day (mmbd) in 2005 to nearly 2.5 mmbd in Octobercarbon products that are produced in conjunction 2012, and now accounts for around 20 percent ofwith methane (also known as “dry” natural gas), or the global market. As Figure 1 demonstrates, NGLsas a byproduct of crude oil refining, and which are are projected to account for roughly one-quarterliquid at room temperature. NGLs include ethane, (nearly 3 million barrels per day) of U.S. liquids sup-propane, butane, isobutane, and natural gasoline. ply by 2025. Figures 2 illustrates the absolute andWhile such commodities do not attract the atten- year-on-year growth in NGL production.tion that is shown to crude oil, gasoline, or naturalFigure 1: U.S Liquids Supply by Source, 2011-2025 14 26% 12 25% Domestic Liquids Supply (mmbd) NGLs as a % of Liquid Supply 10 24% Other Non-petroleum Supply Refinery Processing Gain 8 23% Natural Gas Plant LIquids 6 22% Other Crude Supply Domestic Crude Production 4 21% NGLs As a % of Liquid Supply 2 20% 0 19% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Source: EIA, Brookings Bro o k i n gs Nat u ra l Gas Tas k Fo rc e Issue Brief 1: Natural Gas Liquids 4
  5. 5. Figure 2: U.S. NGL Production, 2009-2012 3000 2500Production (mbd) 2000 Isobutane-Isobutylene Butane-Butylene 1500 Propane-Propylene Ethane-Ethylene 1000 Pentanes Plus 500 0 Jan 2009 Apr 2009 Jul 2009 Oct 2009 Jan 2010 Apr 2010 Jul 2010 Oct 2010 Jan 2011 Apr 2011 Jul 2011 Oct 2011 Jan 2012 Apr 2012 Jul 2012 Oct 2012Source: EIA, BrookingsNGL Basics as a byproduct of the crude oil refining process, which currently accounts for around 20% of U.S.What is a natural gas liquid? Not all natural gas NGLs. (The remaining 6% of liquids is imported.)1is created equal. “Dry” natural gas is comprisedmostly of methane. “Wet” natural gas, which has a A standard unit of measurement for the NGL con-higher energy content than dry gas, generally has a tent of natural gas is gallons per thousand cubicnumber of other gases that make up the gas stream feet of gas (GPM). Typically, dry gas contains aboutincluding ethane, propane, butane, isobutane, and 1 GPM, while the NGL content of wet gas can varynatural gasoline (sometimes known as “pentanes widely. For example, gas produced from the Barnettplus”). These gases, known as natural gas liquids, shale formation in Texas produces about 2.5 to 3.5are separated from the dry gas at gas processing fa- GPM while that from the Bakken formation in Northcilities. Such processing of natural gas accounts for Dakota can produce up to 12 GPM. See Table 1 forroughly 74% of U.S. NGLs. NGLs are also produced the liquids-content of gas from selected shale plays.Table 1: Gallons of NGL per Thousand Cubic Feet (Mcf) of natural gas, selected shale plays Rich Gas Shale Play Gallons of NGL per Mcf (GPM) Bakken (shale oil) 6 to 12 Barnett 2.5 to 3.5 Eagle Ford (oil and gas) 4 to 9 Green River (shale oil) 4 to 6 Niobrara (shale oil) 4 to 9 Marcellus/Utica (oil and gas) 4 to 9 Source: Veresen, EPRINC1 Presentation by Anne Keller, “NGL 101 – the Basics,” Midstream Energy Group, June 6, 2012. Bro o k i n gs Nat u ra l Gas Tas k Fo rc e Issue Brief 1: Natural Gas Liquids 5
  6. 6. Figure 3: Map of Various North American Shale Gas and Oil PlaysSource: EPRINCFigure 4: New Sources of Supply: U.S. NGL supply by Formation, 2017 100% 90% 80% Other 70% Bakken 60% Rockies 50% Anadarko 40% Permian 30% Eagle Ford 20% Utica 10% Marcellus 0%Source: EPRINC, Bentek Bro o k i n gs Nat u ra l Gas Tas k Fo rc e Issue Brief 1: Natural Gas Liquids 6
  7. 7. Where are NGLs found? As demonstrated in Fig- An important component of the NGL production andure 4, the regional diversity of shale oil and gas marketing process is storage. Since NGLs are not al-production is changing the map of the source of ways consumed when and where they are produced,NGLs. Historically, the majority of NGL production appropriate storage locations are important. In thehas occurred in the Gulf Coast region, mostly in Tex- United States, NGLs are usually stored in salt-domeas, with additional NGLs being produced offshore formations, most of which are found in East Texas,Texas and Louisiana, and in the Mountain West. near Mont Belvieu. Not surprisingly, much of the pet-However, increased significant volumes of NGLs are rochemical production capacity and refiners, two ma-expected to come from newer formations like the jor NGL consumers, are also located in this region.Bakken and the Marcellus and Utica formations inPennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio, all of which Who uses NGLs? After being processed, or “frac-are experiencing increased unconventional oil and tionated”, NGL products are piped to various con-gas production. sumers. Different industries consume different NGLs. Almost all ethane and around one third of allHow are NGLs made? NGLs produced by gas pro- propane is consumed by the petrochemical sector tocessing are separated from the overall gas stream make olefins such as ethylene and propylene.2 Theseat a processing plant, which separates the raw NGL compounds are then turned into plastics and a vari-mix from dry gas. The dry gas is then sent through ety of other products. Heating and other fuel usespipeline to consumers, while the raw mix is sent to a account for 52% of propane consumption. NGLsfractionation facility, which processes and separates such as butane, isobutane, and natural gasoline arethe mix into different NGLs (ethane, propane, bu- often used as blending agents in the refinery pro-tane, iso-butane, and natural gasoline), also known cess.3 Figures 5 and 6 breakdown NGL consump-as “purity products.” tion by sector and source.Figure 5: NGL Consumption by Sector Petrochemical Space Heating/Fuel Uses Motor Gasoline/Blendstocks Ethanol Denaturing Fuel Exports Source: Envantage2 Presentation by Peter Fasullo, “Outlook for U.S. Propane Supplies,” En*Vantage, January 30, 2012.3 Ibid. Bro o k i n gs Nat u ra l Gas Tas k Fo rc e Issue Brief 1: Natural Gas Liquids 7
  8. 8. Figure 6: Who Consumes What? NGL Consumption by Sector and Source 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Ethane Propane Butane Iso-butane Natural Gasoline Petrochemical Fuel Exports Ethanol Denaturing Motor Gasoline/Blendstocks Space Heating/Fuel Uses Source: EnvantageWhy are NGLs important? The increase in NGL fuel oil as a feedstock. The American Chemistryproduction is a boon for the U.S. economy. As Fig- Council, an industry trade body, estimates that forure 5 demonstrates, the petrochemical industry is U.S. petrochemical producers to be internationallya major consumer of NGLs. Liquids such as ethane competitive, the absolute ratio of the price of Brentare central ingredients in many industrial process- crude, an international crude oil benchmark, to thees, such as the production of ethylene, which is a price of natural gas traded on the New York Mer-critical component in the production of plastics and cantile Exchange priced at Henry Hub, must be atother goods. Owing to a surge in domestic NGL pro- least 7:1.4 As of March 2013, this ratio stands at moreduction, petrochemical producers are now benefit- than 25:1. According to a May 2011 ACC study, a 25%ting from the availability of cheap NGLs. The latter increase in ethane production will yield a $32.8 bil-give U.S.-based petrochemical producers a signifi- lion increase in U.S. chemical production. Figure 7cant competitive advantage relative to many Euro- illustrates the impact of abundant NGLs (specifical-pean and Asian producers, which mostly use more ly, ethane) on the cost-competitiveness of U.S. pet-expensive oil-based products, such as naphtha and rochemical producers.54 “ Shale Gas and New Petrochemicals Investment: Benefits for the Economy, Jobs, and U.S. Manufacturing,” American Chemistry Coun- cil, March 2011.5 It is important to note that this competitive advantage has its limits. While fractionating ethane produces ethylene, it doesn’t produce much else in the form of by-products. When petrochemical producers crack naphtha to create ethylene, however, there are often valu- able by-products such as propylene and butadiene. This suggests that there will always be a demand for naphtha-based petrochemical production. Bro o k i n gs Nat u ra l Gas Tas k Fo rc e Issue Brief 1: Natural Gas Liquids 8
  9. 9. Figure 7: Typical Petrochemical Cost Curve by Country/Region Cost of Ethylene Production Global Naphtha Cracking N. America 40-60¢/lb Ethane Crackers 15-20¢/lb Middle East Ethane Crackers 5-15¢/lb Source: LyondellBasell Investor Presentation, November 2012 Bro o k i n gs Nat u ra l Gas Tas k Fo rc e Issue Brief 1: Natural Gas Liquids 9
  10. 10. The U.S. NGL MarketThe Market Players While some of the major in- Over the past two years, NGLs have played a par-tegrated oil companies have NGL operations, the ticularly important role in driving the economics ofNGL market is dominated by a number of less-famil- natural gas production. With prices for dry gas hov-iar companies, which own much of the processing, ering above $3/MMBtu—and, at one point in 2012,fractionation, pipeline, and storage capacity. These even dropping below $2/MMBtu—producers havecompanies include Enterprise Product Partners, moved rigs to wetter plays, where they can produceDCP Midstream, Targa Resources, Williams Compa- higher-value NGLs as well as dry gas. Traditionally,ny, and OneOK. NGL prices track oil prices because the primary con- sumers of NGLs—petrochemical producers, homeFundamentals of the NGL Market NGL pricing and commercial heating, and gasoline mixing—areis cyclical. As the primary consumer of NGLs, the able to use refined petroleum products (such aspetrochemical industry is an integral factor in de- naphtha and fuel oil) as substitutes. By maintainingtermining prices, particularly in the case of ethane, demand for ethane and propane, consumers havewhich represents roughly 40% of the NGL stream. helped maintain domestic gas production.Industrial consumers bid for NGLs de-pending on the difference between the Figure 8: Economics of NGL productionprice of NGLs and the price of gas, also Gas supply Fewer NGLsknown as the “spread.” During periods decreases are processedof strong industrial-sector demand, thespread increases and gas processors NGL pricescontinue to pull ethane out of the nat- EP shut-ins increaseural gas stream. As NGL production in-creases, prices for NGLs come down andit is more economic for gas processorsto leave ethane in the gas stream, a pro- Gas prices Ethane economic to process -cess known as “ethane rejection.” Leav- decrease more ethane produceding ethane in the gas stream increasesthe physical volume of natural gas, put-ting downward pressure on prices and Ethane production decreases / gas Too much ethane -reducing gas—and NGL—production. prices decrease supply increasesDeclines in NGL production leads to an Ethaneincrease in prices, and the trend repeats rejectionitself (see Figure 8). Source: Tudor Pickering Holt, Brookings Bro o k i n gs Nat u ra l Gas Tas k Fo rc e Issue Brief 1: Natural Gas Liquids 10
  11. 11. Figure 9: NGL Production and Ethane and Propane Prices, Feb 2010-November 2012 180 3000 160 2500 140 120 2000 Ethane Price (LHS) 100 1500 Propane Price (LHS) 80 60 1000 NGL Production (RHS) 40 500 20 0 0 Feb 2010 May 2010 Aug 2010 Nov 2010 Feb 2011 May 2011 Aug 2011 Nov 2011 Feb 2012 May 2012 Aug 2012 Nov 2012Source: EIA, BloombergAs Figure 9, illustrates, NGL prices have come un- source of heating fuel, which accounts for over halfder downward pressure since the increase in NGL of propane consumption. As a result, propane de-production. Declining NGL prices have encouraged mand peaks in the winter and troughs in the sum-drillers to divert rigs away from NGLs to crude oil mer, leaving the petrochemical sector dependent onplays instead. Owing to this shift, it is likely that NGL a far more variable market.supply will be driven by oil production as opposed tojust gas production. The NGL market is facing a glut of supply in the coming years. Although traditional NGL economicsAs ethane prices remain low, more gas processors would suggest that a prolonged period of low NGLare leaving ethane in the gas stream and remove prices would result in a shortage of ethane, improve-only the heavier liquids, such as propane. Some in- ments in the efficiency of shale gas production havedustrial consumers are responding to this by con- maintained gas and liquids production despite asuming propane instead of ethane in their facilities. diversion of rigs to crude oil plays. With large NGL(This is only an option for petrochemical producers volumes expected to enter the market in the comingthat have made upfront investments in flexible fa- years, it is more likely that demand will not be ablecilities that can process either feedstock.) However, to keep pace with supply rather than the other wayunlike ethane, which is consumed almost exclusive- around.ly by the petrochemical sector, propane is a major Bro o k i n gs Nat u ra l Gas Tas k Fo rc e Issue Brief 1: Natural Gas Liquids 11
  12. 12. Challenges Facing the Sector and Considerations for PolicymakersI f the United States is to realize the full potential in midstream sector are responding to market sig- its resurgence as a major hydrocarbon producer, nals of low prices and supply bottlenecks: they are NGLs will play a major role. NGLs production will investing in the construction of a host of pipelineshave a direct impact on the competitiveness of U.S. that will transport NGLs to market. Tudor Pickeringmanufacturers and petrochemical producers and Holt, an investment bank, forecasts that by 2018play a significant role in any scenario of domestic NGL pipeline capacity will nearly double from 2012self-sufficiency in hydrocarbon liquids. levels (see Figure 10).As the flow diagram above demonstrates, the NGL Developing new pipeline capacity, however, will notsector is highly responsive to market signals. Much be without difficulties. Right-of-way issues and land-of the success of the NGL (and overall unconven- owner rights are pose potential obstacles that cantional) production is owing to the market-driven na- slow down the construction process. Nowhere is thisture of investments in production, transportation, clearer than in the northeast. Pipeline investmentsand consumption. However, while the market is gen- are particularly important for the projected surge inerally efficient at allocating resources in the NGL NGL production from the Marcellus and Utica. Withsector, politicians and government officials should enough investment in pipelines and petrochemicalunderstand what factors could slow down future production capacity, the Northeast states will noinvestments in domestic industry and the resultant longer have to send their NGLs to the Gulf Coastprospects for a U.S. petrochemical “renaissance”. for consumption or export. While some companies have expressed interest in developing new petro-Infrastructure Bottlenecks and Permitting chemical facilities in the Marcellus, getting permits and approval has proven to be a daunting task. ToNGL infrastructure—both midstream and down- construct pipelines in the state of Pennsylvania, astream—has struggled to keep up with the increase company has to work with any affected individualin supply. The Interstate Natural Gas Association of townships. By one estimate, there are over 2,500America, a midstream trade association, estimates townships in the state of Pennsylvania alone, manythat companies need to spend at least $7.8 billion of which have their own regulations.in pipeline investments by 2016. Companies in the 66 “A feast of NGL riches from shale,” NGL Shale Gas Special Report, Argus Media, 2012. Bro o k i n gs Nat u ra l Gas Tas k Fo rc e Issue Brief 1: Natural Gas Liquids 12
  13. 13. Figure 10: Forecasted NGL Pipeline Projects 5,000 4,500 New pipes nearly double takeaway capacity 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Line EZ WTLPG WTNGL (LDH) Arbuckle Sterling I and II Skelly-Belvieu Seminole Chapparal TX/LA NGL System Local Refineries (C4s, C5) Eagle Ford Capacity Midcon Capacity W. Rockies - MAPL E. Rockies - OPPL/FR Bakken Capacity Permian Capacity NE C2 Capacity NE C3+ CapacitySource: Tudor, Pickering, and HoltThe downstream sector—comprising consumers with respect to new pipelines, some analysts suggestof NGLs—is unlikely to build the capacity to keep that regulatory bottlenecks surrounding issues suchpace with the increase in supply. Despite a surge as ozone permits for new facilities are also contrib-in new planned petrochemical capacity, contribut- uting to a delay in new capacity development.ing as much as 550,000 barrels/day of new ethanedemand, NGL supply will likely outweigh demand Export Policyfor much of the remainder of this decade, owing tothe long lead times and high capital expenditure re- Just as the U.S. has become a net exporter of re-quired to build petrochemical facilities. 7 fined petroleum products and is a potential exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), it has also become aOne consideration for policymakers would be the net exporter of NGLs and petrochemical products,streamlining of the permitting process for new fa- such as propane and propylene (see Figure 11). NGLcilities. While permitting delays are often mentioned exports, which are occurring as a result of an excess7 Brad Olsen, “The NGL Report Summary,” Tudor Pickering Holt, April 27, 2012. Bro o k i n gs Nat u ra l Gas Tas k Fo rc e Issue Brief 1: Natural Gas Liquids 13
  14. 14. in domestic supply and weak demand from the pet- at Marcus Hook, in Philadelphia. The latter project,rochemical sector, are growing increasingly import- which is connected to Sunoco’s Mariner East pipe-ant for sustaining domestic NGL—and dry natural line evacuating NGLs from the Marcellus shale, isgas—production. Further, the need for an outlet for viewed by some analysts as critical for the develop-NGL supplies is met with growing demand for pro- ment of the Northeast’s NGL infrastructure.pane and other liquids, which are critical for heatingand cooking in a number of emerging economies, Exporting NGLs will provide producers an incentiveincluding India and Central and South America. to maintain production of both NGLs and, in turn, dry natural gas. Further, many investors see exportsYet although exports have been increasing, accord- as a critical component to smoothing the price vol-ing to RBN Energy, a consultancy, export capacity atility that characterizes the NGL market. More im-is still constrained by a “lack of suitably equipped portant than the current surge in investments interminals.” A number of companies are looking to 8 U.S. manufacturing is the assurance of a predictableexpand or build new export capacity including Enter- supply of NGLs, something provided by increaseprise and Targa, both in Mont Belvieu, Texas, and Su- NGL export.noco Logistics, which is building an export terminalFigure 11: U.S. NGL Imports/Exports (-), 2008-2012 300 200 100 Isobutane-Isobutylene 0 Butane-Butylene Propane-Propylene -100 Ethane-Ethylene Pentanes Plus -200 -300 Jan 2008 May 2008 Sep 2008 Jan 2009 May 2009 Sep 2009 Jan 2010 May 2010 Sep 2010 Jan 2011 May 2011 Sep 2011 Jan 2012 May 2012 Sep 2012Source: EIA, Brookings8 “Exports Prescribed for Propane Relief,” RBN Energy Network, November 1, 2012. Bro o k i n gs Nat u ra l Gas Tas k Fo rc e Issue Brief 1: Natural Gas Liquids 14
  15. 15. The Brookings Institution1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW Washington, D.C. 20036 brookings.edu

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