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Theory of change


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  • 1. Monitoring & Evaluation“Watch your school succeed”Sep 28 2012Maram Barqawi,M&E Manager, mbarqawi@hotmail.comJordan Education Initiative
  • 2. Monitoring & EvaluationWatch your school succeed 1 Introduction M&E 2 What is monitoring? 3 What is Evaluation? 4 Theory of Change 4 Agreeing on Outcomes 5 Selecting Key Indicators to Monitor Outcomes 6 Set Baseline and Target 7 Outcome Matrix 8 Indicators Matrix
  • 3. Monitoring & Evaluation 6 Management tool 4 0 0 8 0 2 1 0 0 0 Measures how well 0 1 2 0 your school is performing
  • 4. Monitoring & Evaluation M&E shifted from auditing and inspections to supporting the performance of program’s work to achieve the demanded goals
  • 5. The Power of Measuring Results If you do not measure results, you can not tell success from failure If you can not see success, you can not reward it If you can not reward success, you are probably rewarding failure If you can not see success, you can not learn from it If you can not recognize failure, you can not correct it If you can demonstrate results, you can win public support
  • 6. Monitoring & EvaluationWhat is Monitoring?Day-to-day follow up ofactivities duringimplementation to measureprogress and identifydeviationsAnswers the question, “whatare we doing?”
  • 7. Monitoring ToolsExamples of monitoring tools in the school:• Personal diaries• Check lists,• Attendance sheets• Field visits reports• Students scores
  • 8. Monitoring & EvaluationWhat is Evaluation?assessment of overallachievement and impactsAnswers the question, “whathave we achieved and whatimpact have we made”?
  • 9. Theory of Change You want to make CHANGE in your school? You have to have a THEORY about how to make that CHANGE.
  • 10. Theory of ChangeIt is an explanation of how the use of (inputs) by(activities) produce a group of (outputs andoutcomes) that sets the stage for producing (impact).
  • 11. Theory of Change is how to use the resources youhave to win the change you want
  • 12. Theory of Change (Logical Model) Goal • Long-term, widespread (Impacts) Results improvement in the school Outcomes • Changes in behaviors or skills as a result of the implemented project. • Products and services Implementation Outputs produced • Tasks personnel undertake to Activities transform inputs to outputs Inputs • Financial, human, and material resources
  • 13. Theory of Change - Adult Literacy program Goal • Higher income levels; increase (Impacts) Results access to higher skill jobs Outcomes • Increased literacy skill; more employment opportunities • Number of adults completing Implementation Outputs literacy courses Activities • Literacy training courses Inputs • Facilities, trainers, materials
  • 14. Why Is It Important toChoose Outcomes? “If you don’t know where you’re going, any road will get you there.” Paraphrased from Lewis Carroll’s Alice in Wonderland
  • 15. Why Is It Important toChoose Outcomes? Participative approachNote: When Choosing Outcomes,Remember – “Do Not Go It Alone!” key stakeholder
  • 16. How to Developing OutcomeStatements? From To School is not Clean environment clean is created in the school Children are Encouraged families dropping out of To Keep Kids In School School ICT skills are low Improved ICT literacy in the school among students and teachers
  • 17. How to Developing OutcomeStatements? Consider this Outcome Statement: “Students in rural areas improve learning and gain better quality of life” What are the measurement issues??
  • 18. Input? Activity? Output?Outcome? Impact?
  • 19. Theory of Change - Simple Example (Training)Input Activity Output Outcome Impact•Materials • Conduct • # of • Capable • Better•Trainers training Participants participant decisions•Participants • Followup trained s to apply M&E • # of techniques workshops
  • 20. Theory of Change (Logical Model)Group work 1 (15min):• Suggest Theory of Change related toschool’s intervention, discuss thecomponent and draft the flow chart.
  • 21. To know your progress you need tomeasure outcomes? Outcomes must be translated to a set of key indicators
  • 22. IndicatorAn outcome indicator identifies a specific numerical measurementthat tracks progress (or not)toward achieving an outcome
  • 23. Selecting Outcome IndicatorsA good performance indicator must be CREAM:Clear (Precise and unambiguous)Relevant (Appropriate to subject at hand)Economic (Available at reasonable cost)Adequate (Must provide a sufficient basis to assess performance)Monitorable (Must be amenable to independent validation)
  • 24. Outcome:Reduction in dropping out of school. Indicators ? • % of students finished the Elementary level • % of students finished the Secondary level • % of children in child labor • More teachers hired
  • 25. Indicator • You will need to develop your own indicators to meet your own needs. • Developing good indicators often takes more than one try! • Arriving at the final indicators you will use will take time! • Pilot, Pilot, Pilot!
  • 26. Outcomes Matrix TargetsOutcome Indicators Baseline June. 2013 Dec. 2013 June . 2014
  • 27. Outcome MatrixGroup work 2 (10min):• go back to your intervention ToC andsuggest indicators for each outcome
  • 28. Indicator Baseline “If you do not know where you are, you will have difficulty determining where you need to go.” Harry Hatry Urban Institute, 1999
  • 29. Indicator Baseline• Is the starting point from where implementation begins, or the situation prior to a development intervention, against which progress can be assessed or comparisons made.
  • 30. Indicators Matrix Indicators are usually summarized in a matrix which will guide the process of monitoring those indictors. Indicators matrix include information about the data sources ,collection methods, frequency a, it also assign the responsibilities for data collection ,analysis and reporting.
  • 31. Indicators MatrixOutcome1 (objective1) Who will Data Who will Frequency analyze and DataIndicator Baseline collection collect of data report data Target source method data collection1.2.3.4.
  • 32. Source of Indicators • Written records (paper and electronic) • Individuals involved with the program • General public • Trained observers • Mechanical measurements and tests
  • 33. Setting Indicators’ TargetsA target is : “ the desired level of performance to be reached within a specific time”
  • 34. Data Collection Methods:Quantitative Research Methods 1.Surveys 2.RecordsQuantitative Research Methods 1.Focus Groups 2.Interviews 3.Observations
  • 35. How to develop a Monitoring &Evaluation plan
  • 36. Indicators MatrixGroup work 3 (15min):• Use the outcome matrix to developthe indicators matrix.