ML Summit 2013 Speaker Presentations: Forces of Change
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ML Summit 2013 Speaker Presentations: Forces of Change

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Megatrends that will reshape the world of manufacturing by 2020

Megatrends that will reshape the world of manufacturing by 2020

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  • There are three main trends that we will see on key urbanization trends in the future. This is the development of1. Mega Cities2. Mega Regions3. Mega CorridorsMega Cities: A Megacity in future will be defined as a city merging with suburbs and characterised by a population of over 8 million. Eg. London. The city has expanded to its suburbs and sprawls all the way to the outer motorway - the M25, some in the UK call it the biggest car park. The Core City will enclose multiple down-towns. It is expected that there will be 23 megacities globally by 2025Mega Regions: A Mega-region is characterised by either two large cities sprawling and merging with each other or a megacity merging with smaller daughter cities to form a large region, with a population of over 15mn. A great example of a mega-region is the area around Johannesburg, the East Rand, Pretoria and Midrand which is fast becoming one inseparable Mega City and locals already have a nick-name for it “Jo-Toria” . Some Mega regions like Delhi in India with its satellite towns of Gurgaon, Faridabad and Noida will have a hub and spoke mega region structure. By 2020, we expect around 15 Mega Regions. Mega Corridors: The third major trend we will see as a result of urbanisation will be the development of mega corridors, which will connect two or more major cities 60 km apart, with the combined population of such corridors being over 25mn. Examples of Mega-corridors include:- Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou corridor in China with Population of over 120 Million and over 100km apart in distance. - BOSWAH (Boston to Washington D.C in US)- Detorit to Chicago possibly in the future too
  • $300 Billion Five Year Plan To Upgrade Transport, Energy, Water, Telecom Infrastructure Announced in February 2011http://www.america2050.org/northeast.htmlhttp://www.northeastbizalliance.org/library/20090123-RPANECfuture.pdf
  • *included HK & Macao. Matches UN World Population ProspectSource: Population numbers of each age interval: United Nations.Breakdown by provinces: calculation (see excel) by estimating fertility and immigration parameters
  • Talking about advancement in artificial intelligence, sophistication of technology and high broadband speed we will now see the creation of a VIRTUAL WORLD – A 3D Simulated environment that would change the way we interact, communicate, move and do our daily activities. A Virtual world is a 3D simulated environment that allows us to do various tasks or have different experiences sitting anywhere in the world including the comforts of one’s own home. We already heard about the example of a virtual surgery.Other futuristic applications could include virtual shopping, virtual field trips for children/students, virtual business conferences, where 3D avatars can attend and communicate with other avatars in the same conference. We already see some instances today. CISCO has created their “Telepresence” product – which projects a holographic image of a person into any data space – and we get the feeling of being in a particular environment. CISCO sees this as a billion dollar market by 2020. There are many technologies today that enable users to not only experience and play with data but also interact with other users within those data users. Once such technology today is haptics . Haptic technology, or haptics, is a tactile feedback technology that takes advantage of a user's sense of touch by applying forces, vibrations, and/or motions to the user. Like the Wii or Kinect that has already invaded our gaming experiences. This technology makes the borders of the real and virtual realms more seamless and fluid. We will see many such technologies becoming the mainstream in 2020.
  • According to World Bank, for every 10 % increase in broadband penetration, there is an increase in economic growth by 1.3%

ML Summit 2013 Speaker Presentations: Forces of Change ML Summit 2013 Speaker Presentations: Forces of Change Presentation Transcript

  • Forces of Change Mega Trends That Will Reshape the World of Manufacturing by 2020 David Frigstad: Chairman Richard Sear: Global VP – Visionary Innovation Frost & Sullivan May 2013
  • "When it comes to the future, there are three kinds of people: those who let it happen, those who make it happen, an those who wonder what happened." - John M. Richardson 2
  • Our Definition of Mega Trends “Mega Trends are global, sustained forces of development that are transformational to business, economy, society, cultures and personal lives” 3
  • 4
  • The Indicator 3 2 1 4 5 0 High Immaturity High Maturity The top right corner on each page will show the following indicator The RED arrow shows the Maturity of the OVERALL area being discussed The GREEN arrow shows the degree of impact to manufacturing as it relates to addressing the area being discussed GAP between Green and Red = Relative complexity to overcome the challenge 5
  • URBANIZATION “CITY AS A CUSTOMER” “CITY AS A CUSTOMER” 6 6
  • Four Main Trends in Urbanization: Development of Mega Cities, Mega Regions, Mega Corridors, and Mega Slums MEGA CITY City with a minimum population of 8 million and a GDP of $250 billion in 2025 (13 Mega Cities in 2011 and 34 Mega Cities in 2025) EXAMPLE: Greater Tokyo MEGA CORRIDORS MEGA REGIONS Cities combining with suburbs to form regions (Population over 15 million) MEGA SLUMS 837Mn in Slums in 2012 The corridors connecting two major cities or Mega Regions (60 km or more apart, and with a combined population of 25 million or more) EXAMPLE: National capital region of Delhi (includes New Delhi, Noida, Greater Noida, Ghaziabad, Gurgaon, Faridabad) EXAMPLE: Hong KongShenzhen Western Corridor Photo Credits: Dreamstime Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis. 7
  • There Will be 34 Mega Cities Globally By 2025 - 76% of Mega Cities to be From Developing World Moscow Chicago London Paris New York City Madrid Nanjing Harbin Shanghai Beijing Hangzhou Tianjin Seoul Tehran Wuhan Tokyo Chengdu Delhi Osaka-Kobe Chongqing Cairo Guangzhou Mumbai Kolkata Foshan Shenzhen Istanbul Los Angeles Mexico City Hong Kong Jakarta Population in 2025 > 27 Million 18-27 Million Rio de Janeiro São Paulo Buenos Aires 8-18 Million Source: : United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision , Frost & Sullivan, 2012 8
  • 2 The Future of Urban Logistics– The Hub and Spoke Logistics Model In Urban Environments 3 1 4 5 0 High Immaturity High Maturity The Spokes: Macro to Micro Implications Drop of delivery points for double trailer trucks • • New Technologies in tracking deliveries such as Track and Trace, RFID in warehouses to evolve • New Business Models like innight services, special delivery, self-collection points to grow in popularity • ~50% reduction in trucks going in and out of cities • The Hub: All trucks to operate at 80-100% capacity (load factor) Ensures ‘On-time delivery’ for retailers Central Distribution Centres Medium and Light CVs will deliver goods to warehouses within city Heavy Commercial Vehicles (double trailer trucks) will carry goods to big warehouses at outskirts Outer Ring Road 25 miles from City Centre Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis. 9
  • 2 Gujarat International Finance Tec –City (GIFT ) $15.6 Billion 1 PPP Project to be India‟s Zero Discharge City and Zero 0 Fatal Accidental City by 2017-2018 High Immaturity TRANSIT ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT ZERO DISCHARGE CITY BY 2017 ZERO FATAL ACCIDENTAL CITY BY 2017 • No release of any harmful or toxic material to the environment No fatal accident due to use of intelligent transport system • • • • 10:90 modal split Private : Public Transport 2 Multimodal Transit Nodes 4 External Parking Hubs and Logistics Centers PRT Systems – no journey to extend 10 mins Well connected to 6 external gateways from NH8 • • • • • • IT Services ITeS/BPO services 10 • • • 5 High Maturity NEXT VERTICAL CITY – 61 buildings to be High Rise 60% of Built up Area for Commercial Purposes and 23% of Residential Purposes 60% of Land to be green 99.9% Uninterrupted Power Supply WiFi/WiMAX Services For High Speed And All-pervasive Network 8000 Km of High Speed Fibre Cables GIFT Project in 2020 Capital Markets and Trading 4 PROJECT FEATURES BUSINESS SEGMENTS Core Financial Services 3 No. of Jobs 10,000-11,000 (Thousands) Value add to GDP: $375-425 Billion Market Capitalisation-$1,600-$1,800 Billion
  • 1 Route 128 Woonsocket Hartford Waterbury Danbury 5 New Rochelle Baltimore New York City Gross Metropolitan Product (2025) 400 Philadelphia Airport BWI Airport Other City Station Washington, D.C $2.6 Trillion Five Year Plan To Upgrade Transport, Energy, Water, Telecom Infrastructure Announced (Feb 2011) Philadelphia Wilmington High Maturity $300 Billion White Plains Airport Newark Newark Airport Trenton 4 0 High Immaturity Boston 3 2 Case Study: The BOS-WASH Corridor to have 58.2 Million population and to account for 20% of United States GDP in 2025 Major City Station Hub City Station 11 Million Total volume on the corridor, including commuter service 18 Million new inhabitants in the next decade
  • SSOCIAL TRENDS OCIAL TRENDS 12
  • Surge in Asian Work Pool Geo Gen Y Socialization Middle Bulge “Sheconomy” Ageing Population Reverse Brain Drain 13 Generational Political Shift
  • 2 Global Population in 2025 3 1 4 Of 2.4 Billion Gen Y Population, about 60% will be from Asia 2.50 Population Forecast by Region and Age, Global, 2011 and 2025 Note: Gen Y = Population between 15 and 34 years 2011 6.97 Billion 0.18 Population (Billion) 0.06 0.84 0.11 0.70 0.20 0.34 2.85 0.50 1.00 0.62 0.49 0.60 0.15 0.07 0.50 0.24 0.53 0.45 0.07 0.14 0.10 0.07 0.21 0.15 0.00 Africa Global Population 8.00 Billion 1.50 2.29 1.85 High Maturity 2025 Approximately 35 percent of Gen Y Population will live in India and China. 2.00 0.54 2.29 5 0 High Immaturity Rest ofAmerica, Caribbean and Oceania Latin Asia North America 0.48 2.40 0.31 0.16 0.36 0.37 0.22 0.12 Europe 1.91 India China Region 65 Years and Above Personalization and Individualization 35-64 15-34 Techno Savvy and Connected 24 X 7 0-14 Civic and Environmentally Friendly Global Population Demanding and Impatient – “Fast and the Furious” Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 and Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations 2011; Frost & Sullivan analysis. 14
  • 3 2 Rise of Young Dragons 1 China to Have 354.4 Million Gen Y (15–34 years) Population and 966 Million Working Age Population by 2025 4 5 0 High Immaturity Gen Y Population by Province, (China), 2025 2011 Total Population: 1,355.2 million 131.6 Top 4 Provinces Account for 29% of Gen Y population 254.8 555.6 High Maturity 413.2 Sichuan 22 million 2025 Shandong 25 million Total Population: 1,404.1 million 223.3 245.0 Henan 28 million Gen Y 20-30 million 354.4 10-20 million 611.5 Less than 10 million 0–14 15–34 35–64 Guangdong 28 million 65 above Note: All values in the charts are in millions. Some numbers do not add up because of rounding Source: Population Division, United Nations, National Bureau of Statistics of China; Frost & Sullivan, 2012 15
  • Developing World Seeing a Thirst For Innovation Five Key Trends for Employers of Youth in Emerging Markets (tracking similar to developed nations) Trend 1: School to Work Transition Trend 2: Entrepreneurship Society / Positive Identity Trend 3: Thirst for Access to Technology Trend 4: Desire for Education / Certificates Trend 5: Longevity and Security 16
  • TECHNOLOGY TECHNOLOGY 17
  • Connected World: Over 80 billion devices will be Connected in Future 10 Connected Devices for Every Household by 2020 190Mn Pay TV In India India = 1.5 Billion Devices 10 Connected Devices for Every Household by 2020 5 connected devices for China 877Mn every user by 2020 Internet Users 800Mn Internet Users in Africa China = 5.1 Billion Devices Connected World 5 connected devices for every user by 2020 5 billion internet users by 2020 5 billion internet users by 80 billion Devices 2020 by 2020 IPv6 500 devices with unique digital IDs (Internet of things) per square kilometre by 2020 340,282,366,920,938,463,463,374,607,431,768,211,456 18 18
  • 2 Virtual World 2020: 3D Simulated Environment for Interaction: Progress made by interesting players 3 1 4 5 0 High Immaturity Virtual Shopping Allowing Customers to Try Products without leaving their homes Virtual World Used for Product Builds Virtual Classes and Laboratories and Daily 3D Field Trips to Different Countries and Planets High Maturity Virtual Business Conferences Social Networking: 3D Avatars Enabling People to Lead Multiple Lives 19
  • Total Augmented Reality Market to Hit $75.2 Billion in 2020, with Mobile Augmented Reality Market Accounting for The Majority 60% 2 3 1 0 4 5 High Immaturity High Maturity Augmented Reality (AR) is defined as a real-time augmented view of the environment through digital data through use of text, sound, graphics, video, and navigation systems that increases user‟s interactivity with the local environment . This extends business and mobility options, social interactions and experiences which has implications on personal lives, businesses and even day-to-day activities. Augmented Reality, Global Revenue, 2020 Total AR Market: $75.2 Billion Mobile AR Augmented reality embedded mobile apps 60% Others Heads Up Displays & Head Mounted Displays $30.2 Billion $45 Billion Reality 40% Augmented Reality Augmented Virtuality Photocredits: : Dreamstime 20 Virtual World Source: : Frost & Sullivan, 2012
  • 2 Future Robotics: Pervasive Robotic Technology in 2020 - 2025 3 1 4 5 0 High Immaturity Robots as Pets High Maturity Robots for Household Chores Robots to Wait on Hand and Foot Robots for Companionship Robots as Waiters Robots To Help With Strategic Planning and Business Robots as Nannies 21
  • 2 1 “Smart” as the New Green 0 High Immaturity 22 3 4 5 High Maturity
  • MOBILITY MOBILITY 23
  • Top 20 Megacities – Regional Transportation Policies Congestion , low emission zones and road user charging initiatives in the emerging economies will have a major impact on car mobility Delhi Mumbai Beijing Bus Rapid Transit Lanes Moscow 2011 Metro/Subway Congestion Charging Shanghai Seoul New York London Tokyo 2011 2011 Planned Planned 2012 2012 Future Yes 1 Week Day Ban 1 week Day Ban Planned Future Parking Cuts Road use Charging/Ban 1 Week Day Ban* Future EV/Hybrid Incentives Bicycle Lanes Emission Standard Euro 4 Euro 4 Euro 4 Euro 3 Euro 4 by 2012 Euro 4 Not planned 24 Euro 4 CAFÉ 27.5mpg. 34.1 mpg by 2016 Existing currently Euro 4 Euro 5 by 2011 25% reduction by 2015 * Voluntary noSource: Frost & Sullivan road usage incentive
  • 3 2 1 Impact of Urbanization on Vehicle Technology Planning 4 Opportunity for OEMs to Develop Technologies for Customers’ Unmet Needs 5 0 High Immaturity High Maturity Evolution of Megacities: Impact on Vehicle Technology Planning (Global), 1950 - 2025 Vehicle length of less than 3500mm CO2 less than 80 gm/km vehicles Limited boot space and more head and leg room Voice recognition technology Start Stop System for frequent stop in traffic Panoramic roofs Customised and personalised comfort functions Lightweight construction Low speed collision avoidance for enhanced safety and pedestrian protection Autonomous parking assist Simple and easy to use HMI 3G/Wi-Fi Connectivity - V2V and V2X communication Ergonomically designed comfortable seats for long commuting hours Turning radius <4.3m to drive in congested streets Facebook on wheels, Internet in cars Smart vehicle access Navigation systems with route guidance and traffic information Source: Frost & Sullivan 25
  • The Future of Mobility will Rely on „Intelligent‟, „Integrated‟ and „Interoperable‟ Transport Infrastructure Example of Implication of Augmented Reality and Location Based Services SATELLITE COMMUNICATION REAL TIME INFORMATION AIRPORT DISTANCE: 10 KM TIME: 40 MINS TOLL COLLECTION POINT DISTANCE: 4 KM TIME: 20 MINS CAR SHARING DISTANCE: 3.5 KM TIME: 15 MINS VEHICLE TO VEHICLE COMMUNICATION RETAIL DISTANCE: 5 KM TIME: 25 MINS SERVICE STATION DISTANCE: 3.5 KM TIME: 17 MINS YOUR FRIENDS INTERMODAL COMMUNICATION DISTANCE: 1.5 KM TIME: 3.5 MINS PARKING SERVICE DISTANCE: 3 KM TIME: 10 MINS DISTANCE: 1.7 KM TIME: 4 MINS CONGESTION CHARGING ZONE DISTANCE: 1.5 KM TIME; 53.5MINS 26 CHARGING STATION DISTANCE: 1 KM TIME: 3 MINS
  • NEW BUSINESS MODELS NEW BUSINESS MODELS 27
  • Business Model Focus Creates Higher Rate of Return Strategy Business model Partnering Process Enabling process Core process Product Product performance Product system Delivery Service Channel Brand Customer experience Volume of Innovation Efforts Last 10 Years Hi Lo Cumulative Value Creation Last 10 Years Hi Lo Source: Doblin analysis, Doblin Inc. 28
  • N=1 N=1 Integration of Technology changes manufacturing Business Model’s Integration of Technology changes manufacturing Business Model’s Source: MLC, Frost & Sullivan 29
  • INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT 30
  • Telecom Infrastructure: Investments are expected to drive mobile penetration (M2M included) in Latin America from 91% in 2009 to more than 200% in 2020, and fixed broadband from 7% to 65% 2010 Europe 2020 140% North America 200% 150% 200% 90% 90% 100% 68% 65% Asia 56% 56% 11% Mobile Broadband Penetration Penetration Mobile Broadband Penetration Penetration Mobile Broadband Penetration Penetration 90% 200% 112% Africa 82% Latin America Oceania 41% 91% 83% 27% 57% 65% 4% Mobile Broadband Penetration Penetration Mobile Broadband Penetration Penetration 7% Mobile Broadband Penetration Penetration Source: 2009 telecommunications statistics from ITU 2020 projections from Frost & Sullivan 31
  • Infrastructure in Latin America: Latin America’s infrastructure is significantly behind OECD countries, demanding significant investments Latin America has a large infrastructure deficit… Roads, paved (% of total roads) Latin American countries 33.3% OECD countries* And significant amounts need to be spent 86.5% Rail lines (total route-km) 93,454 km 562,410 km Air transport, registered carrier departures (million) 1,838,212 18,639,951 Annual investment in infrastructure over 20 years to equal the same level of South Korea (as % of GDP) Country / Region % of GDP Improved water as % urban population 97.1% 99.6% Broadband density per 100 people 6.6 23.8 Electric power consumption (kWh per capita) 1907 9.0% Costa Rica 3.0% 2.0% Peru 11.0% 4.0% Total LatAm 94.0% 5.0% Venezuela 87.0% 8.0% Mexico Improved sanitation as % population All continent Brazil Colombia 26,500 4.0% Chile Oil & Gas Pipelines (length in km) Argentina 6.0% 8376 * Includes Chile and Mexico Source: The Worldbank WDI database, 2010; WHO World Health Statistics 2011 32
  • O&G will remain the Major Source for Primary Energy for the Next Two Decades 20000.0 Forecasted Growth of Global Primary Energy Consumption (million tons of oil equivalent ) 15000.0 10000.0 O&G will provide for 55 percent of energy demand in 2030 5000.0 0.0 2010 2015 Total Liquids Consumption^ 2020 2025 Total Natural Gas Consumption 2030 Others ^Liquids include Biofuel, Others include Nuclear, Coal, Renewable and Hydroelectric energy , Data Source (BP Statistical Review, 2011) • Global energy consumption to grow by 40 percent in the next two decades • Non O&G energy source would see a rise of 50 percent from 2010 levels • Renewable energy to grow at a CAGR of nearly 8.5 percent during this period BUT 33 • O&G will continue to remain the major source of energy • O&G contribution to the global mix is expected be 55 percent in 2030, only 2 percent lower than 2010 • Oil consumption is expected be 18 percent higher in 2030 and gas consumption is expected to rise by 52 percent
  • Energy Storage Viable Solutions for Intermittent Challenges?  Lithium ion batteries are the energy storage option for electric vehicles and hybrids – as demand increases cost will decrease with volume efficiency bringing economies of scale. Ambri‟s Liquid Metal Battery Magnesium (Mg) Antimony (Sb)  Lithium-manganese chemistry is likely to be the future of lithium-ion batteries for automotive applications. The automotive application‟s share in the lithium-Ion battery demand is likely to near 50% of the total demand by 2016 100% 90% 1% 16% 80% 48% 70% 60% Automotive 50% 40% 83% 12% Industrial Consumer 30% 20% 40% 10% 0% 2009 2016 Source: Frost & Sullivan 34
  • ECONOMY ECONOMY 35
  • 3 2 1 Beyond BRIC: The Next Game Changers in 2025 4 5 0 High Immaturity High Maturity Russia $6,189 Billion Turkey Poland $1,167 Billion $2,601 Billion $687 Billion $2,212 Billion Egypt Brazil $38,526 Billion $6,235 Billion Thailand $803 Billion Mexico BRIC Nations India $6,467 Billion $4,816 Billion Next Game Changers Note : The figure denotes GDP at market prices. Forecasts have been made based on Real GDP growth rates $709 Billion South Africa 36 China Indonesia $323 Vietnam Billion $483 Billion Philippines
  • Trends Implications to Manufacturing Adaptable and flexible to opportunities caused by technology is speeding Manufacturing to arrive earlier in R&D process as it becomes a value center to drive differentiation Constantly adapting to technology will be crucial to stay competitive, sustai nable and profitable over long term Companies must drive and foster innovation – a source of competitive advantage China is a source of concern 37 Manufacturing pushes closer to end consumer in an era of hyper personalization Smart products will create complexity to the manufacturing process
  • Innovating to 2025: A Few Predictions We will be witnessing robots in homes Digital assistants will guide our lives Cars to have autonomous functions Your health will be driven China will be going through social reform Cities will be Smart USA remains the #1 wealth generator Virtual world will Disrupt Industries 38
  • Contact Details David Frigstad Richard Sear Chairman Global Vice President – Visionary Innovation (210) 348-1000 (210) 247-3840 df@frost.com rsear@frost.com @searrichard Join Our Mega Trend Group On Mega Trends: Strategic Planning and Innovation Based on Frost & Sullivan Research 39