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2012 aug-usl
2012 aug-usl
2012 aug-usl
2012 aug-usl
2012 aug-usl
2012 aug-usl
2012 aug-usl
2012 aug-usl
2012 aug-usl
2012 aug-usl
2012 aug-usl
2012 aug-usl
2012 aug-usl
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2012 aug-usl

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  • 1. 1ICRA EQUITY RESEARCH SERVICEUNITED SPIRITS LIMITEDQ1 FY 13 Results Update August 1, 2012 Industry: Alcoholic BeveragesStandalone Performance: Premiumization strategy starts paying offUnited Spirits’ standalone operating performance in Q1 FY13 improvedsubstantially on a sequentially basis aided by sharp improvement in operatingmargins following price increases and continuing benefits of a changing productmix in favour of premium brands. In Q1 FY13, even volumes grew by a modest1.8% on a YoY basis; the company’s revenues reported a growth of 6.6% led bybetter pricing and a favourable product mix. As a result, the company’s EBITDAmargins expanded by 650 bps on sequential basis and remained broadly in lineon YoY basis even as cost pressures continued during the quarter. Withcompany’s strategy clearly shifting towards improving profitability rather thanchasing volume growth, we estimate, full year volumes to grow by 6% (belowthe historical average) with improvement in realization supporting a growth of12% during the year. In terms of operating margins, although ENA prices arelikely to trend upwards on expectation of poor monsoons, the impact of priceincreases planned during the rest of the year and efforts of improving theproduct mix should offset some of the cost pressures. Further, increasingreliance on in-house distillation capacities should also support in marginimprovement going forward. The management’s plans of deleveraging thebalance sheet at an opportune time frame could add to the improvement inearnings.Consolidated Performance: W&M’s performance remains mutedWhile United Spirit’s standalone performance improved in Q1FY13, theconsolidated performance was below expectations largely on account of lowerthan expected EBITDA margins in Whyte & Mackay (W&M) business, foreignexchanges losses (on translation) and provisioning for pension funds. W&M’sgrowth in the branded business at 10.0% was also affected by lower off take inown-label brands. As a result, company’s consolidated turnover grew by 7.7%,while it reported net loss of Rs. 39.7 crore for the quarter owing to higherinterest expense and foreign exchange losses. Although, United Spirits’ Q1 FY13performance shows initial signs of stabilization, its cautious strategy of focusingon premium segment brands, enhancing utilisation of in-house distillation assetsmay take time to deliver desired results. Additionally, competitive pressurescontinue to be on uptrend in the Indian market, which may limit company’spricing power to some extent and restrict profitability improvement in anelevated cost based environment. On consolidated basis, W&M’s strategy offocusing on branded business is also likely to delay any material improvement inconsolidated profitability indicators.ICRA Online Grading MatrixValuation AssessmentFundamentalAssessmentA B C D E543 3C21 Fundamental Grading of ‘3’ indicates “goodfundamentals” Valuation Grading of ‘C’ indicates “FairlyValued” on a relative basisKey Stock StatisticsBloomberg Code UNSP INCurrent Market Price* (Rs.) 803.0Shares Outstanding (crore) 13.1Market Cap (Rs. crore) 10,50352-Week High (Rs.) 1039.052-Week Low (Rs.) 450.0Free Float (%) 70%Beta 1.2P/E on 2012-13 EPS Estimate (x) 32.2*As on 1stAugust 2012Current ValuationsShareholding Pattern (30 June 2012)Source: BSE WebsiteShare Price Movement (24 months)Source: Bloomberg17.753.832.222.413.3 14.1 12.6 10.7-10.020.030.040.050.060.0FY11 FY12e FY13e FY14eP/E EV/EBITDAPromoters28%DIIs6%FIIs50%Others16%-2004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,800-1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0001-Jun-101-Aug-101-Oct-101-Dec-101-Feb-111-Apr-111-Jun-111-Aug-111-Oct-111-Dec-111-Feb-121-Apr-121-Jun-12CNX 500 USL (RHS)Table 1: Key Financials (Consolidated)FY11A FY12A FY13E FY14EOperating Income (Rs. crore) 7,420.8 9,356.1 10,499.4 11,796.2EBITDA Margin (%) 16.1% 13.1% 14.0% 14.7%PAT Margin (%) 7.6% 2.0% 3.0% 3.8%Fully Diluted EPS (Rs.) 45.3 14.9 25.0 35.8EPS Growth (%) - -67.1% 67.9% 43.5%P/E (x)* 17.7 53.8 32.2 22.4P/BV (x)* 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9RoE 14.4% 4.2% 6.5% 8.7%RoCE 14.1% 10.7% 10.5% 11.6%EV/EBITDA* 13.3 14.1 12.6 10.7Source: Company, ICRA Online estimates *on fully diluted basis
  • 2. ICRA Equity Research Service United Spirits Limited2Given the above considerations, we have revised the fundamental grade to “3/5”, indicating “good fundamentals”and retained the valuation grade at “C”, indicating that the company is “fairly valued” at present. The assigned gradescontinue to assume that United Spirits would not extend any financial support to any of the group companies. Anychange in this may lead to a review of the grades.Standalone Performance: Focus on premium segment brands is a positive; EBITDA expands on QoQExhibit 2: United Spirits’ Quarterly Standalone Financial Performance (in Rs. Crore)Standalone Q1 FY12 Q1 FY13 YoY Change (%) Q4 FY12 QoQ Change (%)Volumes (in Million Cases) 30.72 31.28 1.8% 30.24 3.4%Operating Income 1,944.5 2,072.9 6.6% 1881.7 10.2%OPBDIT 339.4 350.6 3.3% 195.1 79.7%Depreciation 12.7 16.2 17.5Interest Expenses 130.2 165.6 166.3Other Income 7.5 10.6 14.7Exchange Diff. - Gain/(Loss) 0.8 34.5 (20.5)Exceptional Items - - 2.1PAT 137.7 145.0 5.3% 10.0 1348.1%Key RatiosRaw Material Cost/OI (%) 59.4% 58.3% 60.3%Employee Cost/OI (%) 5.0% 5.3% 5.3%Advertising & Promotions Cost/OI (%) 7.7% 8.3% 11.1%Other Expenditure/OI (%) 10.4% 11.2% 12.8%OPBDIT Margin (%) 17.5% 16.9% (50) bps 10.4% 630 bpsPAT Margin (%) 7.1% 7.0% 0.5%Source: Company Data, ICRA Online EstimatesRevenue Growth: In Q1 FY13, United Spirits’ standalone revenues at Rs. 2,072.9 crore grew by 6.6% on YoY basisaided by a growth of 1.8% in volumes and a favourable impact of price increases and an improving product mix. Thecompany’s strategy of shifting its focus away from lower margin brands and increasing impetus on premium brandscontinued to reflect in a modest volume growth during the quarter. As a result of this strategy, while volumes ofregular segment brands (which contributes 63% to total volumes) dropped by 6.1%, those from prestige & abovesegments grew at a healthy pace of 17.2%. Despite strong competition in the premium-end of the market, UnitedSpirits’ gained market share aided by increased focus and introduction of new brands. Apart from diminishing focuson lower-margin brands, lower growth in some of markets, especially, West Bengal (following sharp rise in duties inQ3 FY12) and supply disruption in Tamil Nadu continued to affect expansion in volumes. Additionally, demand fromthe some states such as U.P. where country liquor is a prominent substitute also moderated during the quarter was aswidening price gap between country liquor and IMFL shifted demand in favour of the former.Exhibit 3: Segment-wise Volume Growth (%)Segments/Volumes (in Million Cases) Q1 FY12 Q1 FY13 YoY Change (%)Prestige & Above 6.80 7.97 17.2%Regular 20.87 19.60 -6.1%II Line 2.54 3.11 22.4%Franchisee 0.51 0.60 17.6%Total 30.72 31.28 1.8%Source: Company Data
  • 3. ICRA Equity Research Service United Spirits Limited326.726.630.328.630.728.730.530.231.324.025.026.027.028.029.030.031.032.0Q1FY11Q2FY11Q3FY11Q4FY11Q1FY12Q2FY12Q3FY12Q4FY12Q1FY13Volume Sales (in MillionCases)548509572556630624640616658400450500550600650700Q1FY11Q2FY11Q3FY11Q4FY11Q1FY12Q2FY12Q3FY12Q4FY12Q1FY13Realisation (Rs. Per MillionCases)299271382320376364390375387-50100150200250300350400450Q1FY11Q2FY11Q3FY11Q4FY11Q1FY12Q2FY12Q3FY12Q4FY12Q1FY13Raw Material Consumption/Case10887947311011666651120.0%4.0%8.0%12.0%16.0%20.0%-20406080100120140Q1FY11Q2FY11Q3FY11Q4FY11Q1FY12Q2FY12Q3FY12Q4FY12Q1FY13EBITDA(Rs. Per MillionCases) EBITDAMargins (%)Profitability Indicators: In terms of operating profitability, United Spirits’ standalone EBITDA margins at 16.9%improved substantially on sequential basis (Q4 FY12 EBIDAT margins stood at 10.4%) aided by a combined impact of achanging product mix in favour of premium brands, price increases and lower Extra Neutral Alcohol (ENA) cost duringthe year. On YoY basis, the company’s margins were marginally lower as impact of lower input material cost waspartially offset by higher advertising & promotional spend and other overheads.With pricing being restricted by local Governments, the impact of higher material prices has impacted United Spiritsmargins in the past. In FY12, the cost of basic raw material – ENA continued on an upward trend due to increasedfloor rates of ethanol supplies to the OMCs (raising the minimum prices of ENA) and supply constraints owing todelayed crushing season and supply disruptions. Apart from higher spirits cost, the company’s packaging cost alsowent up due to rise in cost of manufacturing glass with higher energy prices. While ENA prices may have softenedduring the first quarter, expectation of poor monsoon may have benign impact on ENA cost for balance part of theyear. However, this would possibly be offset to some extent by price increases expected from some of the states inthe near term, cost savings on account of higher sourcing from in-house distilleries and benefits of premiumizationstrategy.Business Performance Analysis (FY12)Exhibit 4: Volume growth remained sluggish in Q1 FY13 Exhibit 5: Realisations continued to improveExhibit 6: Material prices remain benign Exhibit 7: Offset by price increases to some extentSource: Company Data, ICRA Online EstimatesConsolidated PerformanceApart from United Spirits’ Indian business, Whyte & Mackay (W&M) is the key contributor to company’s consolidatedperformance. In Q1 FY13, W&M’s operating performance continued disappoint with 10% drop in revenues and a
  • 4. ICRA Equity Research Service United Spirits Limited4sharper reduction in contribution and EBITDA margins. According to the management, the impact of the company’sstrategy of developing a branded business and preserving the bulk liquid continues to weigh on its performance andexpects results of the cautious strategy to be delayed to some extent. Apart from W&M’s weaker performance,higher interest outgo, foreign exchanges losses (on translation) and provisioning for losses in pension fund accountscumulatively resulted in a loss of Rs. 39.7 crore on consolidated basis during the quarter.W&M repositioning remains key concernWe believe that company’s consolidated performance is likely to remain under pressure as it continues to pursue astrategy of focusing of changing W&M’s business model towards branded scotch whiskey segment compared to thebulk segment, which accounted for nearly half of company’s total volumes. Post the acquisition by United Spirits,W&M has been working on a three-pronged strategy which involves a) increasing share of premium scotch whiskies, b)expanding presence in emerging markets thereby reducing dependence on developed markets particularly the U.K.and c) strengthening its own-label/private label in key markets in Western Europe. With respect to its premiumbranded business, the company has already stepped its efforts to introduce premium variants of its existing offeringsand also upgraded the packaging of few of its brands. While W&M strategy to focus on strengthening its brandedbusiness and expanding presence in fast-growing emerging markets are steps in right direction but are likely startshowing results at least after 2-3 years as creating brand recognition and developing a distribution network inemerging markets is likely to take some time.Exhibit 8: United Spirits’ Quarterly Consolidated Financial PerformanceConsolidated Q1 FY12 Q1 FY13 YoY Change (%)Operating Income 2,260.7 2,434.3 7.7%OPBDIT 333.2 356.8 7.1%Depreciation 29.4 50.2Interest Expenses 152.1 212.8Other Income 21.2 50.5Exchange Diff. - Gain/(Loss) (7.7) (86.4)Exceptional Items 17.3 (19.7)PAT 165.2 57.9 -135.9%Key RatiosRaw Material Cost/OI (%) 52.7% 52.5%Employee Cost/OI (%) 7.2% 6.0%Advertising & Promotions Cost/OI (%) 9.1% 9.6%Other Expenditure/OI (%) 16.2% 17.3%OPBDIT Margin (%) 14.7% 14.7%PAT Margin (%) 4.9% -1.6%Source: Company Data, ICRA Online EstimatesKey Takeaways Improving Product Mix: United Spirits’ premiumization strategy and focus at the top-end of the productportfolio continues to reap dividends and mitigate the impact the impact of lower volume growth and costpressures; the company continued to take price increases through a mix of increase in billing prices, lowerpromotional trade spends and introduction of higher-prices alternate brands. key brands at the top-end continue to exhibit healthy growth – Mc Dowell’s Platinum (up 16%), RoyalChallenge (up 27%) and signature also grew in double digits Price Increases & Growth Outlook: Management remains fairly confident of affecting healthy pricesincreases during the year; while Kerala has recently declared an average price revision of 6%, it expectsAndhra Pradesh to follow suit.
  • 5. ICRA Equity Research Service United Spirits Limited5 Overall, the company has guided to maintain a volume growth in 8-9% for the full year, expecting growth tostabilize in states where impact of increase duties has dampened demand in recent months. In addition, the company has also stepped up its focus on emerging markets and has initiated business inSouth-East Asian and African countries. Debt Position: As on 30thJune 2012, United Spirits’ consolidated debt levels stood at Rs. 8,515.8 crore (upfrom Rs. 8,136.1 crore as on March 2012). The rise in debt levels was primarily driven by revaluation offoreign exchange loans and marginal increase in working capital loans. With sharp increase in debt levels, thecompany’s consolidated leverage has inched up to 1.7x as on June end. Equity Infusion: The management has guided that it will continue to explore ways of deleveraging thebalance sheet; however, the time frame for the same has not been indicated. Capital Expenditure: The glass bottling project has been put on hold and will be taken up once equityinfusion has been concluded; overall, the capital expenditure for FY13 will be restricted to Rs. 100 crore. Extraordinary Items: In FY12, the company also booked a loss of Rs. 86.4 crore on revaluation of foreignexchange borrowings; the company also made provision of Rs. 22.2 crore related to pension fund deficit.Exhibit 9: Whyte & Mackay’s Financial Performance (in GBP Million)In GBP Million Q1 FY12 Q1 FY13 Change (%)Operating Income (A+B) 37.82 33.77 -10.7%Gross Profit 14.30 12.00Marketing Expenses 7.21 7.13Contribution 7.09 4.87Overheads 2.93 3.68EBITDA 4.16 1.19Less: Depreciation 1.04 1.07Less: Interest Expenditure 2.19 0.84Restructuring & Goodwill 0.86 1.11PBT 0.07 (1.83)Ratios (%)Contribution Margins (%) 18.7% 14.4% -4.3%EBITDA Margins (%) 11.0% 3.5% -7.5%Source: Company PresentationExhibit 10: United Spirits’ Consolidated Balance Sheet (in Rs. Crore)Q1 FY12 Q1 FY13Net Worth 4,669.4 4,911.5Minority Interest 14.6 17.4Non-Current Liabilities 5,357.5 5,508.6Current Liabilities 5,583.9 5,752.4Term Liability towards Franchisee Rights 231.1 196.7Total 15,856.5 16,386.6Net Fixed Assets 2,821.2 2,870.2Goodwill on Consolidation 5,167.4 5,453.9Investments 216.9 222.1Loans & Advances 1,240.0 1,166.4Other Non Current Assets 338.5 346.0Cash & Bank Balances 363.2 452.4Other Current Assets 5,709.3 5,875.6Total 15,856.5 16,386.6
  • 6. ICRA Equity Research Service United Spirits Limited6VALUATION GRADEExhibit 11: Relative ValuationParameter USL* Radico Khaitan# CNX FMCG Index# S&P CNX Nifty#Current Market Price 803.0 108.6 12,945.3 5,240.5Market Capitalisation 10,503 1,441 n.a. n.a.FY13e FY14e FY13e FY14e FY13e FY14e FY13e FY14ePrice/Earnings 32.2 22.4 14.5 11.4 27.6 23.4 13.1 11.6EV/EBITDA 12.6 10.7 8.9 7.4 17.8 15.2 9.5 8.5Price/Sales 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.9 3.6 3.2 1.4 1.3Price/Book Value 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 8.2 7.4 2.2 1.9Price Cash Flows 20.3 15.5 10.3 8.2 25.3 21.4 10.3 9.1* ICRA Online estimates based on share price as on August 1st 2012 # Based on Bloomberg consensus estimatesSince our last update (on January 25, 2012), United Spirits’ stock has appreciated by almost 23% with much ofappreciation coming in after the recently announced quarterly financials, which indicate a significant improvement incompany’s operating margins on a sequential basis as well as initial signs of stability coupled with management statedguidance of pursuing profitable growth. The company’s stock price has also outperformed the benchmark indices by ahealthy margin during the same period. At current market price of Rs. 803, the company’s valuations at 32.2x FY13eearnings are at significant premium to other companies in the alcoholic beverages space but only marginally higher tothe FMCG index. In our view, EV/EBITDA is a better metrics to value United Spirits given its high debt levels andvariability in earnings. Historically, the company has traded in a forward EV/EBITDA band of 10-25x and currentvaluation of 12.6x is within the historical band. We expect United Spirits EPS to grow to Rs. 25.0, a growth of 68% overthe previous year as standalone performance may strength to shield the weakness in W&M’s performance.While volume growth in the current year has been impacted by increased duties in certain states and other issues, webelieve that the long-term growth prospects remain steady for the alcoholic beverages industry and United Spiritswould continue to benefit from its strong brand position, wide product portfolio and pan-India manufacturing anddistribution footprint. Nevertheless, competitive pressures in the industry continue to be on an uptrend, which maylimit company’s pricing power to some extent and restrict profitability improvement in an elevated cost basedenvironment. On consolidated basis, W&M’s strategy of focusing on branded business is also likely to delay anymaterial improvement in consolidated profitability indicators. Given the above considerations, we have revised thefundamental grade to “3/5”, indicating “good fundamentals” and retained the valuation grade at “C”, indicating thatthe company is “fairly valued” at present. The assigned grades continue to assume that United Spirits would notextend any financial support to any of the group companies. Any change in this may lead to a review of the grades.Increasing in competitive pressures, further rise in duties (and prices) and deterioration in capital structure remainskey risks to our view on company’s earnings estimates and valuations.
  • 7. ICRA Equity Research Service United Spirits Limited7COMPANY PROFILEBangalore-based, USL Limited is the largest spirits company in the branded spirits market in the world. Incorporatedin 1898, USL belongs to the Bangalore-based Vijay Mallya owned UB Group. The promoters, own a 28% stake in thecompany. With over 112.2 million cases of liquor sold in FY11, the company commands over 40% market share inIndia. The company has a very strong and wide portfolio of spirits with 21 of those brands selling more than a millioncases a year in its portfolio and enjoying a strong 55% market share for its first line brands in India. Its largest sellingbrand – Mc Dowell’s has also attained the largest alcoholic beverage brand status in the world besides India’s largestFMCG brand status.The company has also been fairly aggressive in pursuing in-organic opportunities over the past 6-7 years. In 2005, USLacquired the second largest Indian liquor manufacturer – Shaw Wallace which it followed with the acquisition ofBouvet Ladubay (a French wine maker) and Whyte & Mackay, the fourth largest Scotch whiskey maker in the World inFY08. The company has also won several prestigious awards for flavours including Mondial, International Wine andSpirit Competition (IWSC) and International Taste and Quality Institute (ITQI). The company has been recognized inthe industry as an innovator with several firsts to its credit such as the first pre-mixed gin. USL has a well establishedglobal network with exports to over 59 countries. It has a sizeable presence in India with distilleries andmanufacturing and bottling plant in every state in India. It has 37 owned manufacturing units and 57 contractmanufacturing facilities. The company has also established a robust distribution network covering almost 98% of the~66,000 retail outlets across the country.Grading PositivesThe company’s key strengths include a) its strong market position in the Indian alcoholic beverages industrysupported by leadership position across segments, wide product portfolio and well established brands. With theindustry being highly regulated and governed by restrictions across the value chain, USL’ pan India foot print inmanufacturing and distribution supports its position against rising competitive pressures. The company’s overallstrategy to enhance the share of more profitable premium segment brands both in India and in Whyte & Mackaysupports a favourable long term view. USL is also focussing on a backward integration strategy to enhance its in-house distillation capacity besides pursuing plans to set up a glass bottle manufacturing plant to improve its coststructure and reduce vulnerabilities to cost-based headwinds.Grading SensitivitiesWith prices governed by the state governments to the extent of ~60% of industry volumes, sharp variation in inputmaterial prices (molasses, glass etc.) tend to have an adverse impact on margins given that the pricing power islimited. Any increase in taxes (as witnessed recently in some states), could hurt volume growth and consequentlyearnings estimates. We believe, the most significant dissimilarity between alcoholic beverage player via-a-vis abranded FMCG business is the former’s lack of pricing power despite strong brand loyalty associated. Risingcompetitive pressures particularly in the premium-end of the market from international majors is also a challenge forthe company.
  • 8. ICRA Equity Research Service United Spirits Limited8USL Brand PyramidSource: Company, ICRA OnlineRUMMc DowellCelebrationOld CaskWHISKYBagpiperOld TavernHaywardsGreen LabelBRANDYMc DowellNo 1Honey BeeJohn ExshawVODKAWhiteMischiefRomanovBlueRibandGINW&MJohnBarrREGULARPRESTIGEPREMIUMVODKARed RomanovVladivarWHISKYMc Dowell No 1DSP BlackWHISKYRoyal ChallengeSignatureAntiquitySCOTCHBlack Dog 12yrBlack Dog 8yrIsle of JuraDalmoreW&M Special
  • 9. ICRA Equity Research Service United Spirits Limited9Table 9: Key Milestones for USLYear Milestones1898 Establishment of Mc Dowell & Co.1951 Late Mr. Vittal Mallya (founder of UB Group) acquired Mc Dowell & Co.1983 Mr. Vijay Mallya took over as the Chairman of UB Group2002 Acquired Triumph Distillers & Vinters; indirectly acquired Diageo PLC’s IMFL business in India2005Acquired 54.6% stake in India’s second-largest spirits company, Shaw Wallace for a consideration of Rs. 1,300croreAcquired balance 15% stake in Triumph; increased stake in Herbertsons during the year2006To strengthen presence in wine segment, USL acquired 100% stake in a French winemaker – Bouvet Ladubayfor Euro 16.5 million2007Acquired world’s fourth largest scotch maker – Whyte & Mackay to become a formidable player in the scotchwhiskey segment; USL acquired W&M for a consideration of GBP 595 million2007 Shaw Wallace merged with USL2010 Became the second-largest spirits company in the world surpassing Pernod Ricardo; second only to DiageoSource: Company, ICRA OnlineTable 10: Details of Key acquisitions by USLYear Company Acquisition RationaleJune 2005 Shaw Wallace USL became a dominant player in the spirits market in India with the acquisition ofShaw Wallace; the acquisition added strong brands such as Royal Challenge,Director’s Special and Antiquity to USL’s portfolioAcquisition Price: Rs. 1,300 croreMay 2007 Whyte & Mackay Got access to huge reserves of pure scotch whiskey, strong brand portfolio,international distribution footprint and an essential source for its spirits productionAcquisition Price: US$ 1.18 billionBouvet Ladubay Allowed USL to kick start its presence in the wine segmentAcquisition Price: Euro 16.5 millionLiquidity Inc. Acquired established and premium vodka brands for introduction in the IndianmarketBalaji Distilleries Allows USL to raise in-house primary distillation capacitiesTern Distilleries Allows USL to raise in-house primary distillation capacitiesPioneer Distilleries Allows USL to raise in-house primary distillation capacitiesGOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT STRUCTUREUSL has a seven member board comprising of four independent directors. While the promoters – Dr. Vijay Mallya isclosely involved in running the business, key managerial positions are handled by a team of professional managers.The accounting policies followed by USL are generally in line with best practises and there has been no materialauditor qualification in recent period. The disclosure levels in USL’ annual report are broadly in line with that followedby the industry.The UB Group has presence across a number of business segments including alcoholic beverages, aviation,engineering and fertilisers. While the management’s stated policy indicates that no financial support would beextended by USL to other group companies, the stress in some of the other businesses of the group, notably aviationhas weakened the outlook on the group and subsequently affected valuation for some of the group companiesincluding USL.
  • 10. ICRA Equity Research Service United Spirits Limited10Annexure I: P&L Estimates (Consolidated)Rs. Crore FY09A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13e FY14eNet sales 5,054.1 5,853.0 6,858.6 9,186.5 10,322.0 11,609.7Other related income 452.0 547.1 562.1 169.6 177.4 186.5Total revenue 5,506.1 6,400.2 7,420.8 9,356.1 10,499.4 11,796.2OI Growth 16.2% 15.9% 26.1% 12.2% 12.4%EBITDA 808.4 1,072.1 1,197.1 1,229.8 1,464.9 1,731.2Depreciation 92.6 95.0 102.3 147.4 183.2 202.8EBIT 715.9 977.1 1,094.8 1,082.4 1,281.6 1,528.5Interest expenses 737.7 618.7 557.5 875.7 868.7 909.7Other income/expense (295.1) (258.8) 258.0 99.6 70.5 74.9PBT (before extraord) (317.0) 99.6 795.3 306.4 483.5 693.6Extraordinary Gain/Loss 0.0 70.0 36.8 28.9 0.0 0.0PAT (408.6) (23.6) 566.9 187.2 314.3 450.9Minority interest (0.2) (0.9) (2.6) (0.7) 0.0 0.0PAT (concern share) (408.4) (22.7) 569.5 187.9 314.3 450.9No of shares 100,163,256 120,669,098 125,869,737 125,869,737 125,869,737 125,869,737DPS 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5EPS (39.7) (2.1) 45.3 14.9 25.0 35.8CEPS (31.5) 5.9 53.2 26.6 39.5 51.9Annexure II: Balance Sheet EstimatesLiabilities (Rs. Crore) FY09A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13e FY14eNet worth 2,312.3 3,728.7 4,133.9 4,661.8 4,939.3 5,353.4Minority interest 6.3 8.5 17.5 14.6 14.6 14.6Total Debt 7,360.5 5,554.2 6,455.7 7,523.1 8,740.7 8,729.0NO Non Current Liability 443.1 344.4 329.6 0.0 204.9 163.9Deferred Tax Liability (91.8) (71.5) (32.5) (59.2) (59.2) (59.2)Trade Creditors 1,091.8 1,142.4 1,468.3 1,995.1 2,174.6 2,415.9Other Current Liabilities 554.5 630.8 541.9 1,661.9 693.9 716.8Total liabilities 11,676.7 11,337.5 12,914.3 15,797.4 16,708.8 17,334.5Assets (Rs. Crore) FY09A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13e FY14eNet Fixed Assets 6,100.8 5,969.5 6,371.9 7,988.6 8,466.2 8,435.9Capital Work in Progress 28.8 94.3 129.1 - 60.0 12.5Total Net Fixed Assets 6,129.6 6,063.8 6,501.0 7,988.6 8,526.2 8,448.4Total Long-Term Investments 950.1 126.5 150.9 235.8 235.8 235.8Cash and Bank Balances 449.0 768.6 637.0 363.2 350.0 350.0Receivables 888.0 1,388.1 1,557.1 1,972.9 2,223.7 2,507.9Inventories 1,745.8 1,746.2 2,116.8 2,754.8 3,096.5 3,444.5Loans & Advances 617.6 563.2 1,381.4 1,240.0 1,579.1 1,596.7Other Current Assets 896.6 681.0 570.1 1,242.0 697.5 751.2Total Current Assets 4,597.0 5,147.2 6,262.4 7,572.9 7,946.8 8,650.3Total Assets 11,676.7 11,337.5 12,914.3 15,797.4 16,708.8 17,334.5
  • 11. ICRA Equity Research Service United Spirits Limited11Annexure III: Cash Flow EstimatesCash flows (Rs. Crore) FY09A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13e FY14eOPBDIT 808.4 1,072.1 1,197.1 1,229.8 1,464.9 1,731.2Less: Taxes 186.5 178.1 192.8 171.3 169.2 242.8Changes in Net Working Capital (1,231.4) (385.8) (722.2) 364.9 (1,393.8) (376.3)Net Interest Charges (726.4) (606.9) (585.7) (1,044.0) (616.8) (897.8)Cash flow from operating activities (1,336.0) (98.8) (303.6) 379.4 (715.0) 214.4Investments (295.1) 724.9 (42.7) (411.0) 204.9 (41.0)Capital expenditures 220.0 (29.2) (539.6) (1,635.0) (720.8) (125.0)Cash flow from investing activities (75.1) 695.7 (582.2) (2,046.0) (515.9) (166.0)Equity Raised / (Buyback) 14.4 1,546.0 5.2 0.0 (0.0) 0.0Loans Raised / (Repaid) 756.4 (1,806.2) 901.4 1,071.5 1,217.6 (11.7)Others (Including Extra-ordinaries) 23.3 106.8 36.9 73.7 0.0 0.0Dividend (14.0) (25.2) (35.7) (70.6) 0.0 (36.7)Cash Flow from Financing activities 780.2 (178.7) 907.8 1,074.6 1,217.6 (48.4)Cumulative cash flow (630.9) 418.2 22.0 (592.0) (13.2) (0.0)Opening Cash Balance 543.8 449.0 768.6 637.0 363.2 350.0Closing Cash Balance (87.1) 867.2 790.7 45.0 350.0 350.0
  • 12. ICRA Equity Research Service United Spirits Limited12Annexure IV: Key Financial RatiosKey Financial Ratios FY09A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13e FY14eGrowth indicatorsSales Growth 18.3% 15.8% 17.2% 33.9% 12.4% 12.5%EBITDA Growth -27.3% 32.6% 11.7% 2.7% 19.1% 18.2%EPS Growth -216.9% -94.8% -2307.3% -67.1% 67.9% 43.5%Cash EPS Growth -174.6% -118.8% 798.1% -50.0% 48.7% 31.4%Profitability indicatorsEBITDA Margin 14.7% 16.8% 16.1% 13.1% 14.0% 14.7%EBIT Margin 13.0% 15.3% 14.8% 11.6% 12.2% 13.0%PAT Margin -7.4% -0.4% 7.6% 2.0% 3.0% 3.8%RoE -18.2% -0.8% 14.4% 4.2% 6.5% 8.7%ROCE 4.6% 8.4% 14.1% 10.7% 10.5% 11.6%Liquidity ratiosDebtor (days) 36 48 42 39 39 39Inventory (days) 184 167 174 172 172 172Net working capital/Revenues 49.2% 44.3% 51.4% 38.0% 47.8% 46.4%Capitalization RatiosTotal Debt/ Equity + MI 3.2 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.6Interest coverage 1.1 1.7 2.1 1.4 1.7 1.9Total Debt/EBITDA 9.1 5.2 5.4 6.1 6.0 5.0Valuation RatiosPrice/Sales 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.9Price/Earnings (19.7) (426.7) 17.7 53.8 32.2 22.4Price/Book Value 3.5 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9EV/EBITDA 18.5 13.5 13.3 14.1 12.6 10.7Price/Cash Flows (25.5) 135.6 15.1 30.2 20.3 15.5
  • 13. ICRA Equity Research Service United Spirits Limited13ICRA LimitedCORPORATE OFFICEBuilding No. 8, 2nd Floor,Tower A, DLF Cyber City, Phase II,Gurgaon 122002Ph: +91-124-4545300, 4545800Fax; +91-124-4545350REGISTERED OFFICE1105, Kailash Building, 11thFloor,26, Kasturba Gandhi Marg,New Delhi – 110 001Tel: +91-11-23357940-50Fax: +91-11-23357014CHENNAIMr. Jayanta ChatterjeeMobile: 9845022459Mr. D. VinodMobile: 99406480065th Floor, Karumuttu Centre,498 Anna Salai, Nandanam,Chennai-600035.Tel: +91-44-45964300,24340043/9659/8080Fax:91-44-24343663E-mail: jayantac@icraindia.comd.vinod@icraindia.comHYDERABADMr. M.S.K. AdityaMobile: 9963253777301, CONCOURSE, 3rd Floor,No. 7-1-58, Ameerpet,Hyderabad 500 016.Tel: +91-40-23735061, 23737251Fax: +91-40- 2373 5152E-mail: adityamsk@icraindia.comMUMBAIMr. L. ShivakumarMobile: 98210864903rd Floor, Electric Mansion,Appasaheb Marathe Marg, Prabhadevi,Mumbai - 400 025Ph : +91-22-30470000,24331046/53/62/74/86/87Fax : +91-22-2433 1390E-mail: shivakumar@icraindia.comKOLKATAMs. Anuradha RayMobile: 9831086462A-10 & 11, 3rd Floor, FMC Fortuna,234/ 3A, A.J.C. Bose Road,Kolkata-700020.Tel: +91-33-22876617/ 8839,22800008, 22831411Fax: +91-33-2287 0728E-mail: anuradha@icraindia.comPUNEMr. Sameer MahajanMobile: 98813007725A, 5th Floor, Symphony,S. No. 210, CTS 3202,Range Hills Road, Shivajinagar,Pune-411 020Tel : +91- 20- 25561194,25560195/196,Fax : +91- 20- 2553 9231E-mail: sameer.mahajan@icraindia.comGURGAONMr. Vivek MathurMobile: 9871221122Building No. 8, 2nd Floor,Tower A, DLF Cyber City, Phase II,Gurgaon 122002Ph: +91-124-4545300, 4545800Fax; +91-124-4545350E-mail: vivek@icraindia.comAHMEDABADMr. Animesh BhabhaliaMobile: 9824029432907 & 908 Sakar -II, Ellisbridge,Ahmedabad- 380006Tel: +91-79-26585049/2008/5494,Fax:+91-79- 2648 4924E-mail: animesh@icraindia.comBANGALOREMr. Jayanta ChatterjeeMobile: 9845022459The Millenia, Tower B,Unit No. 1004, 10th Floor,Level 2, 12-14, 1 & 2, Murphy Road,Bangalore - 560 008Tel: +91-80-43326400,Fax: +91-80-43326409E-mail: jayantac@icraindia.comwww.icra.inICRA ONLINE LIMITEDCorporate Office107, 1st Floor, Raheja ArcadePlot No. 61, Sector-XI, CBD Belapur, Navi MumbaiMaharashtra-400614.Ph : +91-22-67816163 (Direct); 67816100Fax : +91-22-27563057Investor Desk: equity.research@icraonline.com www. icraonline.comDisclaimer: Although reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information herein is true, such information is provided ‘as is’without any warranty of any kind, and ICRA in particular, makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy,timeliness or completeness of any such information. All information contained herein must be construed solely as statements ofopinion, and ICRA shall not be liable for any losses incurred by users from any use of this publication or its contents. ICRA grades arenot a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any securities of the graded entity.This Report is solely for the personal information of the authorized recipient in India only. The information contained in this reportshall in no way either directly or indirectly be reproduced, redistributed, communicated in any form whatsoever to any other personboth within India or outside India. Nor is it permissible for the information to be disseminated or copied in whole or in part, for anypurpose whatsoever.Disclosure: The ICRA Equity Research Service is a mandate-based, paid service. In this case, ICRA or ICRA Online has received both themandate and the research fee from the entity reported on.

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