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Network scalability - The Indian perspective

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This presentation discusses the scalability of telecom networks from a Indian telecom operator in terms of investments, technology - standards and Broad Industry perspective.

This presentation discusses the scalability of telecom networks from a Indian telecom operator in terms of investments, technology - standards and Broad Industry perspective.

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  • GPRS: General Packet Radio ServiceEDGE: Enhanced Data rates for GSM Evolution1xRTT: Single Radio Transmission technologyeGPRS: Enhanced GPRSGSM: Global systems for mobile communicationCDMA: Code division multiple accessUMTS: Universal mobile telecommunication systemsWCDMA: WideBand CDMASCDMA: Synchronous CDMATD-SCDMA: Time division synchronous CDMAHSPA: High speed packet accessHSDPA: High speed downlink packet accessHSUPA: High speed uplink packet accessHSPA+: Enhanced HSPAWiMAX: Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave AccessTD LTE: Time Division LTEFD LTE: Frequency Division LTECognitive Radio: The cognitive engine is capable of configuring radio-system parameters. These parameters include "waveform, protocol, operating frequency, and networking".
  • 3GPP: 3rd Generation Partnership ProjectOFDM: Orthogonal frequency Division MultiplexingWCDMA: Wideband CDMA802.11: Multi stream modulation techniques
  • AWS: Advanced Wireless ServicesUTRAN: Universal Terrestrial Radio Access NetworkS-Band: used by weather radar, surface ship radar, and some communications satellites, especially those used by NASAto communicate with the Space Shuttle and the International Space Station.Specialized Mobile Radio (SMR): Analog or digital trunked two-way radio system, operated by a service in the VHF, 220, UHF, 700, 800 or 900 MHz bandsL-Band: refers to four long different bands of the electromagnetic spectrum: 40 to 60 GHz (NATO), 1 to 2 GHz (IEEE), 1565 nm to 1625 nm (optical), and around 3.5 micrometres (infrared astronomy).APT: Segmentation of the 698–806 MHz band (usually referred to as the 700 MHz band) formalized by the Asia Pacific Telephonyde: Band or technology with origins in GermanyWCS: Wireless Communication Services usually in the 2300MHz BandPCS: Personal Communication Services usually in the 1900MHz Band first launched in US, Mexico,CanadaDCS: Digital Cellular Service in USTACS/ETACS: Total Access Communication System(TACS)and ETACS are mostly-obsolete variants of Advanced Mobile Phone System(AMPS) which were initially developed by two companies separately, i.e. Vodafone and Cellnet. PAMR: Public Access Mobile Radio mostly used in the former TV broadcasting spectrums
  • Transcript

    • 1. Scalability challenge of Telecom networks The India Perspective Manas Ganguly 31st January 2014
    • 2. Generations of Cellular Technology 1G 2G 2.5G GPRS 1xRTT 1983 Voice 1991 SMS 1997 Internet on the move 2.75G 3G 3.5G EDGE eGPRS UMTS W-CDMA EVDO Rev.A HSPA HSDPA HSUPA EVDO Rev.B HSPA+ WiMAX 1999 2003 2008 High Speed data Video 4G 5G LTE TDD LTE FDD LTE Cognitive Radio 2009 2020 ??? AI
    • 3. Telecommunication System & Standards 3GPP 802.11 802.16/-2009/m HSPA+ 21 – 672Mbps 802.11 a 802.11 b 802.11 g 6-54Mbps 1-11Mbps 6-54Mbps CDMA 2000 GSM HIPERMAN/ 802.20 1Gbps 802.11 n 802.11 ac 7.2150Mbps 87.6866.7Mbps WiMax Rel. 1 WiMax Rel. 1.5 WiMax Rel 2 37Mbps 83Mbps 110-365Mbps Flash OFDM (Mobility upto 200 mph) Flash - OFDM UMTS/3GSM LTE Advanced LTE 100-300Mbps 5.3- 15.9Mbps UMTS/ WCDMA UMTS TDD .384Kbps-14.4Mbps 16Mbps Rev.0 Rev.A Rev.B 2.4Mbps 3.1Mbps 14.7Mbps GPRS EDGE Enhanced EDGE 116 Kbps 116-384Kbps 400Kbps – 1Mbps HIPERMAN iBurst /802.2 (Cell Radius 3-12 kms) 56.9Mbps 95Mbps
    • 4. Spectrum, Technology and Standards 2100/ SBand LTE UTRAN LTE TDD UMTS HSPA+ GSM CDMA 1900/ PCS P P P P P P P P P P P AWS/+(2.1 1800/DCS & 1.8 GHz) P P 850/+ / JTACS 2600 P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P 1500 U/L/ L 700 900 /TACS Band ac/c/PS/BC 800 L/U/DD P P P P 3500 2500 2000 S Band P P P 1900+ P P P P P 800/SMR/P AMR 700APT/de 2300 WCS P P P 450 390 400 PMAR 1800 PCS / European Korea PMR P P P P P P P 1900 LTE UTRAN LTE TDD UMTS HSPA+ GSM CDMA 1600 L band 2000 PCS L/U/C 2300 2500 P P P P P P P P P 2600 3400 P 3600 P P P P http://niviuk.free.fr/index.html P
    • 5. Wireless Broadband: Fast Facts • • • Mobile broadband network deployments – 532 commercially launched HSPA networks in 203 countries – 84% of networks support peak downlink of at least 7.2Mbps – 338 (i.e over 63%) are HSPA+ networks – 145 (27% of HSPA operators) commercially launched 42Mbps DC-HSPA+ systems in 75 countries LTE is mainstream – 508 operators investing in LTE in 144 countries – 456 network commitments + 52 pre-commit trials – 263 commercially launched networks/ 97 countries including 28 LTE TDD (TD-LTE) – 75% YoY – 1371 LTE user devices launched (by 132 suppliers) – 705 new products in the past year – Includes 483 LTE 1800 terminals – Includes 304 products supporting TDD mode – 533 LTE smartphones representing 39% share of all devices Mobile broadband subscriptions – 1.373 billion WCDMA subs including HSPA – 157.7 million LTE subs (110.1 million growth in 12 months)
    • 6. • • • • • • 705 new LTE devices in 12 months Number of OEMs: +52% YoY 533 LTE smartphones (39% share of all LTE devices) 42 VoLTE phones 304 LTE TDD User devices 142 Category 4 terminals Data: GSMA January 24th 2014 304 LTE TDD User Devices 1068 LTE FDD User Devices LTE Devices Eco-System: 1371 user devices 1800 MHz Band 3 is the most popular band for LTE deployments and is poised to have the largest user devices eco-system
    • 7. The dichotomy of convergence & divergence: The LTE conundrum • • • • • Harmony : Converging GSM and CDMA? Complexity: 41 Bands Scale: CMCC and Jio Compromises: 2300MHz, Really now? Trade-offs: Hazards, Investments
    • 8. Indian Telecom iGDP expected to hit $100 billion by 2015 Internet Subs Mobility Subs EOY 2012 135 mln 864 mln EOY 2013 205+ mln 904 mln Indian Telecom Vital Stats: COAI/TRAI • • • No. of Mobile Internet Users: IAMAI Internet subs - 330 million by 2015 Internet’s contribution to India’s GDP to grow from 1.6% in 2011 to 3.4% in 2015. The Indian Telecom Industry accounts for 13% subscriptions & 2.3% share of the global telecom revenue. Source: McKinsey Smartphone versus Mobile Phone shipments: CMR
    • 9. Indian Telecom: 2G versus 3G India currently has amongst the lowest wireless broadband penetration in the Asia-Pacific below Malaysia, Philippines and China and nearly equal to Pakistan. Merely 16% of ARPU coming from data. Comparison: Japan (64%) , Australia (50%), Indonesia (41%), Malaysia (38%), China (35%) and even Thailand (22%).
    • 10. Indian Telecom: Current Status • • • • Policy Enablers: 2013 – Mergers and acquisitions policy: Dominant players can now hold up-to 50% telecom market shares. – Foreign equity participation of 100% in Telecom sector Low cost driving reach and affordability would be critical but a derivative of a favorable Tax regime. – Telecom tower companies given slew of benefits (gap funding, external commercial borrowing, lower import duties, excise exemptions) with Infrastructure status is a major step forward in this direction. Telecom players were looking for market capitalization and consolidation. – The operators have started to focus on subscriber quality and have done away with the lucrative dealer commissions and promotional minutes. – After 2008, for the first time, India has witnessed a surge in voice tariff Spectrum Re-farming, Lopsided M&A rules
    • 11. Indian Telecom: Current Status • • • • • • • Rs.1,48,792 – Cellular Mobile Industry Rs.2,50,000 – Industry Debt Regulatory costs including service tax, license fee, graded spectrum usage charge and revised spectrum variable price equals nearly 40% of the customer tariff In 2012, Indian telecom sector’s EBITDA was 15%, comparing poorly with a 36.1% average for Asia’s telecom sector. High debt, coupled with regulatory and policy uncertainities have affected long term investments Average voice tariffs of roughly 35 paise/minute (arguably the world’s lowest) are responsible for this wide mismatch between 13% subscriptions and 2.3% share of the global revenue. Further, telecom tariffs, the industry points out, have dropped 30% in the last 4 years, even in the face of annual inflation of 7-8%.
    • 12. Impact of Spectrum/Band on Network Costs 700MHz 1900MHz 2400MHz Number of cells per unit area 1 4 10 Total Network Cost @ $150K/Cell $1,50,000 $6,00,000 $15,00,000 Network Cost per Customer $180 $725 $1820 No.of months for break even 9 months 36 months 91 months Cell Radius (Ideal) 10kms 5.5kms 4.7kms Cell Circle Coverage Area (Comparative) 1 .3 .22 Source: Aloha Partners
    • 13. 70% cheaper to provide MBB @ 800MHz than over 2100MHz
    • 14. LTE Telco Opex Key Assumptions Dense Urban Not to scale Urban Rural • This is a theoretical exercise and represented as an ideal case • Utilization of BTS has been assumed to be 100% • For EVDO Rev A, # carriers on a BTS =2; EVDO Rev B = 3; costs have been allocated proportionately • LTE throughput has been taken as 30 Mbps
    • 15. LTE Penetration Developing countries Developed countries LTE expected to reach subscriber traction only by 2015 in developed countries, emerging economies to be in nascence “LTE will be deployed in developed markets first, with wide-scale deployments in emerging markets expected after costs for equipment & handsets begin to decrease. Although potential for LTE in emerging markets in the next 5 years is limited.” Pyramid Research, July 2011 Countries with LTE roll out begun and commercial service available in some regions Countries with LTE spectrum auctioned but LTE deployments not yet commercial Countries with planned LTE commercial deployments but spectrum not yet auctioned Countries with LTE trial systems (pre-commitment)
    • 16. LTE & 3G: The US Case
    • 17. What to expect from LTE? LTE TO HAVE 2.4X & 44X DATA USAGE PER USER COMPARED TO WCDMA AND GSM RESP. OPERATORS EXPECT LTE TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT SHARE OF DATA TRAFFIC “SK Telecom predicts that around 65% of its total data traffic will be handled by its LTE network by 2014, and it expects to have 10 million LTE users by 2015.” Unwired Insight, Nov 2011 “The average smartphone user on their (Teliasonera) network consumed 375MB/month of data. The average broadband user on their network, largely 3G data cards, consumed 5 GB/month. But the average LTE consumer (essentially all data cards) used 14 GB – 15GB/month of data.” Gigaom, Nov 2010 *GSM, WCDMA, HSPA & LTE together expected to comprise ~90% share of all technology subscriptions by 2015; **1 EB=10^18 bytes Note: GSM share of data traffic is low because a GSM subscriber would mainly utilize a basic phone for access and thus would not exceed 60 MB data traffic per subscriber per month, even in 2015 Source: Ovum, Jan 2011; Gartner, Jun 2011; Bain analysis; Lit. search
    • 18. LTE in India: Limited Scope in near future City Sub density Attractiveness Mumbai 4505 Profitable Delhi 5689 Profitable Bangalore 2760 Profitable Chennai 1825 Profitable Hyderabad 2190 Profitable Kolkata 1678 Profitable Pune 1968 Profitable Ahmadabad 1103 Profitable Surat 1292 Unprofitable Coimbatore 1962 Profitable 11-50 1111 17 out of 40 cities profitable 51 -150* 366 7 out of 74 cities profitable Economics suggest that a rational roll out would be limited to select cities over next 3-5 years Profitability is function of subscriber density and data usage characteristics
    • 19. LTE in India: Building Scale • • • • • Staggered launch schedule across 33 cities will limit LTE share of data traffic in the next 2 years to within 5-10% LTE on 2300MHz will require high density of BTS to offer sufficient coverage – LTE on 2300MHz has limited coverage with lower wall penetration Customers unlikely to perceive high value in LTE vs 3G Other LTE spectrum holders like Aircel, Infotel not likely to launch immediately BSNL may look to give away its spectrum slot Economics of 2300Mhz could strain LTE business case in short-medium term
    • 20. LTE in India: The Operational Challenge • Economics of 2300Mhz could strain LTE business case in shortmedium term • LTE on 2300MHz will require high density of BTS to offer sufficient coverage – LTE on 2300MHz has limited coverage with lower wall penetration • 2300MHz LTS solution – unlikely to benefit from a scale ecosystem as this will be among few 2300 MHz • LTE coverage likely to be pocketed, with fallback on 3G – User Experience is limited because of nomadic coverage through mix of LTE/3G
    • 21. LTE Deployments: India • • • LTE deployments will in India will target heavy users and early adopters Pricing per MB basis for heavy users at parity to 3G or even lower To offset nomadic coverage, 4G solution will partly be an indoor fixed Wi-Fi type solution (via CPE equipment/ IBS) • • Focus target segments: – Enterprises – SMEs (SME dense clusters) – High-end/professional residential areas Will try to uptrade, switch heavy users and early adopters  cream the 3G/EVDO data market
    • 22. Thanks! manas.ganguly@gmail.com @manasganguly (+91)9654465443
    • 23. References • • • • • • • • • • • Data business: The India perspective - http://www.slideshare.net/Manas.Ganguly/data-business-the-indiancontext India data traffic: The broadband story http://www.slideshare.net/Manas.Ganguly/india-data-traffic-the-broadband-story LTE: The Operational & the deployment challenges http://www.slideshare.net/Manas.Ganguly/lteoperational-challenges-deployment-conundrum Data in Indian context: Networks & Traffic http://www.slideshare.net/Manas.Ganguly/data-in-indian-context-networks-traffic Digital Dividend http://www.slideshare.net/Manas.Ganguly/digital-dividend-2451233 GSMA: The Mobile Economy India 2013 http://www.slideshare.net/Manas.Ganguly/gsma-mobile-economy-india-report-2013 Spectrum, Technology & Standards http://niviuk.free.fr/index.html iGDP expected to hit $100 billion by 2015 http://ronnie05.wordpress.com/2013/12/31/indian-telecom-2013-theyear-that-was-and-the-way-forward/ No. of Mobile Internet Users http://ronnie05.wordpress.com/2013/12/29/driven-by-a-narrowing-price-gapsmartphones-begin-to-penetrate-deep-into-indian-markets/ Smartphone versus Mobile Phone shipments http://ronnie05.wordpress.com/2013/12/29/driven-by-a-narrowingprice-gap-smartphones-begin-to-penetrate-deep-into-indian-markets/ LTE device Ecosystem http://www.gsacom.com/news/gsa_398.php
    • 24. Glossary of Terms • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • GPRS: General Packet Radio Service EDGE: Enhanced Data rates for GSM Evolution 1xRTT: Single Radio Transmission technology eGPRS: Enhanced GPRS GSM: Global systems for mobile communication CDMA: Code division multiple access UMTS: Universal mobile telecommunication systems WCDMA: WideBand CDMA SCDMA: Synchronous CDMA TD-SCDMA: Time division synchronous CDMA HSPA: High speed packet access HSDPA: High speed downlink packet access HSUPA: High speed uplink packet access HSPA+: Enhanced HSPA WiMAX: Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access TD LTE: Time Division LTE FD LTE: Frequency Division LTE Cognitive Radio: The cognitive engine is capable of configuring radio-system parameters. These parameters include "waveform, protocol, operating frequency, and networking"
    • 25. Glossary of Terms • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 3GPP: 3rd Generation Partnership Project OFDM: Orthogonal frequency Division Multiplexing WCDMA: Wideband CDMA 802.11: Multi stream modulation techniques AWS: Advanced Wireless Services UTRAN: Universal Terrestrial Radio Access Network S-Band: used by weather radar, surface ship radar, and some communications satellites, especially those used by NASA to communicate with the Space Shuttle and the International Space Station. Specialized Mobile Radio (SMR): Analog or digital trunked two-way radio system, operated by a service in the VHF, 220, UHF, 700, 800 or 900 MHz bands L-Band: refers to four long different bands of the electromagnetic spectrum: 40 to 60 GHz (NATO), 1 to 2 GHz (IEEE), 1565 nm to 1625 nm (optical), and around 3.5 micrometres (infrared astronomy). APT: Segmentation of the 698–806 MHz band (usually referred to as the 700 MHz band) formalized by the Asia Pacific Telephony de: Band or technology with origins in Germany WCS: Wireless Communication Services usually in the 2300MHz Band PCS: Personal Communication Services usually in the 1900MHz Band first launched in US, Mexico,Canada DCS: Digital Cellular Service in US TACS/ETACS: Total Access Communication System (TACS) and ETACS are mostly-obsolete variants of Advanced Mobile Phone System(AMPS) which were initially developed by two companies separately, i.e. Vodafone and Cellnet. PAMR: Public Access Mobile Radio mostly used in the former TV broadcasting spectrums