Under a Business as Usual Scenario, Conservative as we call it, overall energy demand may growth by 40% over the coming 20 years. There is an alternative path, an objective scenario that we call Proactive, that will translate into only 20% increase in primary energy demand. This means that 12% of primary energy and 10% of final energy could be saved in the year 2030. This save is equivalent to the final energy consumption of the whole Region in 2030.In line with the estimated population and economic growth, 75% of the total increase of energy demand will come from the South. Today per capita energy consumption in the South is one third of per capita consumption in the North but this difference will be reduce in 2030 to 60%.
Whatever the scenario is, the energy mix will be dominated by fossil fuels in 2030, nearly 80% of all.Whatever the scenario is, gas share will keep on increasing and will overtake oil as the dominant energy source over the next decade. Oil is expected, however, to maintain its stronghold on the transport market.Under a Proactive scenario the Region could reduce by 30% its imports of hydrocarbons and multiply by 2 their export capacities.It is worth to highlight than in the Proactive scenario, renewable energy sources could represent 16% of the total primary energy mix.Regarding energy markets, transport and residential will increase their share, while industry is expected to loose ground.The electricity market will be the largest user of natural gas: over 50% of all gas consumption will be dedicated to power generation.
Despite a positive outlook for oil and gas production over the next 20 years, the Region will still need to import coal, oil and gas under both scenarios.Total oil production in the Mediterranean remains above 6 mb/d in 2030.Libya will continue to increase levels of oil production to 2030, but will struggle to offset the decline in the other countries.Contrary to oil, the demand of which is less elastic, gas demand will much change according to the scenarios: in a scenario of high energy efficiency and deployment of renewable energy sources, demand will increase by 40% while, in a conservative scenario demand could increase by 70%, nearly as much as gas production increases (from 200 bcm in 2010 to 360 bcm in 2030).Demand in the South Mediterranean is expected to increase more rapidly than the North, due also to attractive prices and easy availability
Three countries - Libya, Algeria, and Egypt – hold over 93% of the Mediterranean’s oil and gas reserves.Israel will join the exporters club in the South with a modest contribution.Except for Libya, other South Med countries will be hard-pressed to fulfill their export plans while coping with their fast growing internal demand. This pressure will be particularly hard in the case of Egypt: under a business as usual scenario Egypt could hardly maintain their gas export commitments.Total natural gas exports from these countries could increase from 80 bcm in 2010 to 135-185 bcm in 2030 if the adequate policies for investments and energy saving are implemented.
Coping with electricity demand is one of the major challenges over the two coming decades.Demand will grow at an average growth rate of 2, 8% per year, more rapidly than overall energy demand. In South Mediterranean, however, demand will rise at an average rate of 5% per year and will nearly multiply by three over the considered time period.If at present the North represents 70% of all the electricity demand, the situation will be more balanced by 2030.Under a Proactive scenario, overall electricity demand would be 14% lower. The potential for electricity savings in the next 20 years is of about 3800 TWh, which is all the electricity produced in the South Mediterranean countries for the last ten years
We estimate that 380 additional GW of installed capacity will be needed to cope with electricity demand at the end of the overview period. More than half of this capacity, around 200 GW, in the South.Under a Proactive scenario, more than 60 GW of generation capacity could be avoided.In both scenarios renewable sources will represent important shares of the new capacities: 42% in a conservative scenario and 53% in a Proactive scenario.
The investment required to build up the generation capacities mentioned before will be of 715 billion Euros in one case or 700 billion Euros in the Proactive case.Contrary to the estimation in the North, where the investment required in a Proactive scenario would be lower than in the Conservative scenario, in the South the Proactive option will require an additional investment of around 30 billion Euros. The reason is less gas fired plants and more renewable sources and nuclear.We estimate that the economies of spared gas in power generation and higher gas revenues for exporting countries will compensate for the additional costs of cleaner generation technologies.
Transcript of "OME: Maghrenov kickoff Barcelona - Day 1"
OVERVIEW AND PERSPECTIVES OF RENEWABLE
ENERGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY
IN THE MEDITERRANEAN REGION
Dr. Houda Ben Jannet Allal
Barcelona, 16 December 2013
MEDITERRANEAN REGION: IMPORTANT CROSSROADS FOR GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS
7% of world population, 500 million people, 90
million more people by 2030, nearly all in the
10% world GDP, $7.5 trillion of GDP, 2.5% p.a.
average growth to 2030
8% of world’s primary energy demand
Transit corridor for global energy markets
Heavily impacted by current financial crisis and
important socio-political changes
High (untapped) for energy efficiency and
A Region particularly sensible to the impact of
ENERGY DEMAND OVERVIEW
MEDITERRANEAN ENERGY DEMAND OUTLOOK,
GDP (billion dollars
40% increase in overall demand by 2030.
Only 20% increase if robust policies
and measures are put in place.
MEDITERRANEAN ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA
Today per-capita energy consumption in the South Mediterranean
countries is nearly three times less than the level of that in the
countries in the North.
By 2030 the North will still be consuming twice as much as the
South on a per capita basis.
ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL
The future will remain fossil fuel based (70%) and
RES will take a significant share (up to 16%) under
HEAVY RELIANCE ON FOSSIL FUELS WILL ENDURE
MEDITERRANEAN FOSSIL FUEL DEMAND AND PRODUCTION OUTLOOK
Conservative Scenario 2030
Proactive Scenario 2030
Demand Pr oduction
Demand Pr oduction
Demand Pr oduction
To 2030 the Mediterranean region will remain a net
importer of fossil fuels regardless of the Scenario.
Gas production could nearly double and demand
increase between 40% and 70% from 2010 to 2030
GAS ERA AND OIL PEAK
GAS EXPORT POTENTIAL
Export capacity would substantially increase under
the Proactive Scenario to over 180 bcm in 2030.
MEDITERRANEAN ELECTRICITY BOOM AHEAD
Electricity demand in the South will nearly triple
14% could be saved under the alternative scenario.
INSTALLED GENERATION CAPACITY
Over 380 GW will need to be added to meet electricity demand.
Less than 320 GW in a Proactive Scenario.
RES represent 42% of installed capacity in the CS; 53% in the PS
POWER GENERATION INVESTMENTS
Over 700 billion Euros will be needed to 2030.
Spared gas could compensate the additional cost of
clean generation technologies.
RENEWABLES IN THE MEDITERRANEAN
Share of the Mediterranean in global renewable
*World figures come from IEA New Policies Scenario
Renewables in the Mediterranean accounts for 5% of global total
renewable energy demand.
Renewables in the MED to account for 7.3% of RE energy demand by
2030 in the Conservative and 15% in the Proactive Scenario.
A SUNNY AND WINDY FUTURE
MEDITERRANEAN ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL
Conser vative 2030
Renewables to supply 10% of primary energy demand by 2030
in the Conservative and 15% in the Proactive Scenario.
Most of the increase is expected to come from wind and solar.
Renewables will account for 42% of total installed generation
capacity in the Conservative and 53% in the Proactive Scenario.
RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY GENERATION
RES electricity increased by more than 2.5 times in 1990-2010
Renewables are expected to compete directly with natural gas
as the dominant electricity source by 2030 (over 1000
TWh), under the PS
CONSENSUS ON EE & RE IMPORTANCE
EIB / OME / UfM Conference on energy efficiency, 10
December 2013, Brussels
All stakeholders, one voice
Institutional and regulatory frameworks, subsidies,
electricity tariffs, exchange of best practices,
Ministerial meeting, 11 December 2013, Brussels
Importance of EE and RE, but not only
UfM energy community
ELECTRICITY TARIFFS IN THE MEDITERRANEAN
Residential electricity tariffs in the
* average selling
SUBSIDIES TO FOSSIL FUELS
Source: IEA, WEO 2013
KEY MESSAGES (1)
Current energy trends in the Mediterranean are not
sustainable. Business as usual is not an option:
Overall energy demand could grow by 40% by 2030,
where fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy
mix and natural gas will overtake oil.
Electricity boom ahead: average annual growth rate of
about 2.8% and 5% in the South: overall over 380 GW of
additional capacity needed.
The energy challenge is in the South:
Population will grow by over 80 million people;
Overall energy demand and CO2 emissions would
Electricity demand would nearly triple; 200 GW of
generation capacity to be installed;
KEY MESSAGES (2)
Under the Proactive Scenario, based on improving
efficiency and exploiting renewable energy potential:
10% savings in final energy by 2030
Reducing by nearly half the expected fossil fuel
import requirements by 2030
Electricity demand could be met with less
generation capacity and a higher share of
Electricity, through renewable technology and grid
developments, emerges as the strong driver for
reinforcing regional cooperation
But also energy efficiency which is nowadays
confirmed by all stakeholders as a MUST
KEY MESSAGES (3)
Substantial potential for EE & RES in the region,
driven by decreasing costs of technologies and very
favorable climate conditions
Strong electricity demand growth=>role for RES-e
Evolving energy efficiency and renewable energy
policy support frameworks in some countries
Initiatives to improve bankability
… BUT… obstacles to be removed:
Subsidies to fossil fuels/low energy prices
Very diversified institutional frameworks
Need for interconnections
Stronger S-S and S-N cooperation needed
Innovation, R&D, capacity building and best
practices share ….
Contact: Pedro Moraleda
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